No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior consent of the publisher. 《 澳 門 科 技 大 ㈻ ㈻ 報 》 (季 刊 ) 第 ㈩ ㈦ 卷 第 ㆓ 期 JOURNAL OF MACAU UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY VOL.17 NO.2 主 辦 方：澳門科技大學 Distributor：Macau University of Science and Technology 主 席：李行偉 Chairman：Lee, Joseph Hun Wei 編 輯 方：澳門科技大學學報編輯部 Editorial：Editorial department, Macau University of Science and Technology 編 輯：曾幸麒 Editor：Chang, Henry Hang Kei 地 址：澳門宋玉生廣場 335-341號獲多利中心十樓 Address：Alameda Dr. Carlos d’Assumpcao, no. 335-341, Edificio HotLine,10 andar, Macau (10/F, Room 1014, Centre Hotline, NAPE) 出 版 者：澳門科技大學 Publisher：Macau University of Science and Technology 地 址：澳門氹仔偉龍馬路 Address：Avienda Wai Long, Taipa, Macau 出版年月：2023年 6月 30日 Issued date：June, 2023 鳴 謝：澳門基金會資助出版 Acknowledgement：Publication sponsored by the Macau Foundation 聯絡電話(Phone)：(853) 8897-3932 電 郵(Email)：publication@must.edu.mo 印 刷(Print run)：200本 規 格(Size)：21cmｘ14cm 定 價(Price)：葡 幣 4 0元 期 刊 號(ISSN)：1994-4926 期刊網址(Website)：https://www.mustjournal.com/CN/home 版權所有 翻印必究 All rights reserved.
澳門科技大學學報編輯委員會 主編 Chief Editor 李行偉 澳門科技大學校長 LEE, JOSEPH HUN WEI President, Macau University of Science and Technology 英國皇家工程院院士 Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering 執行編輯 Executive Editor 龐 川 澳門科技大學副校長兼研究生院院長 PANG, CHUAN Vice-President and Dean of School of Graduate Studies, Macau University of Science and Technology 編輯委員 Editorial Board Members 李行偉 澳門科技大學校長 LEE, JOSEPH HUN WEI President, Macau University of Science and Technology 英國皇家工程院院士 Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering 譚廣亨 澳門科技大學副校長 TAM, PAUL KWONG HANG Vice-President, Macau University of Science and Technology 香港科學院院士 Member of the Hong Kong Academy of Sciences 姜志宏 澳門科技大學副校長兼中藥質量研究國家重點實驗室主任 JIANG, ZHIHONG Vice-President and Director of State Key Laboratory of Quality Research in Chinese Medicines, Macau University of Science and Technology 龐 川 澳門科技大學副校長兼研究生院院長 PANG, CHUAN Vice-President and Dean of School of Graduate Studies, Macau University of Science and Technology 林志軍 澳門科技大學校長高級顧問(QA) LIN, ZHIJUN Senior Advisor to President (QA), Macau University of Science and Technology 蘇育洲 澳門科技大學校長高級顧問(AACSB) SO, JACKY YUK CHOW Senior Advisor to President (AACSB), Macau University of Science and Technology 方 泉 澳門科技大學法學院院長 FANG, QUAN Dean, Faculty of Law, Macau University of Science and Technology 吳國民 澳門科技大學酒店與旅遊管理學院院長 GOH, KOK BENG Dean, Faculty Hospitality and Tourism Management, Macau University of Science and Technology
The Editorial Board List for Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology 張志慶 澳門科技大學人文藝術學院院長 ZHANG, ZHIQING Dean, Faculty Humanities and Arts, Macau University of Science and Technology 張洪明 澳門科技大學國際學院院長 ZHANG, HONGMING Dean, University International College, Macau University of Science and Technology 林廣志 澳門科技大學社會和文化研究所所長 LIN, GUANGZHI Director, Institute for Social and Cultural Research, Macau University of Science and Technology 劉成昆 澳門科技大學可持續發展研究所所長 LIU, CHENGKUN Director, Institute for Sustainable Development, Macau University of Science and Technology 陳東燊 澳門科技大學商學院副院長 CHAN, TUNG SUN Vice-Dean, School of Business, Macau University of Science and Technology 錢 濤 澳門科技大學數學研究中心主任 QIAN, TAO Director, Macao Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Macau University of Science and Technology 湯開建 澳門科技大學社會和文化研究所講座教授 TANG, KAIJIAN Chair Professor, Institute for Social and Cultural Research, Macau University of Science and Technology 錢乘旦 澳門科技大學社會和文化研究所特聘教授 QIAN, CHENGDAN Distinguished Professor, Institute for Social and Cultural Research, Macau University of Science and Technology 英國皇家歷史學會通訊院士 Fellow of the Royal Historical Society 吳漢東 澳門科技大學法學院特聘教授 WU, HANDONG Distinguished Professor, Faculty of Law of Macau University of Science and Technology 張 楊 澳門科技大學酒店與旅遊管理學院課程主任 ZHANG, YANG Program Director, Faculty of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Macau University of Science and Technology
目 次 Contents ㈵約稿專區—「㊩㈻探索」 Review of Influenza Prediction Wei Qu, Yuanfang Lai, Zhijie Lin, Ying Zhan, Jingyi Liang, Ruihan Chen, Ruilan Deng, Zhiqi Zeng, Zifeng Yang, Chitin Hon, Nanshan Zhong 1 商㈻論文 如何規範設立中公司發起人契約責任？ —基於部門法與法社會學的分析視角 How to Establish the Promoter’s Liability on Pre-incorporation Contracts? An Analytical Perspective Based on Departmental Law and Sociology of Law 張倩孺 Zhang, Qianru 31 研發激勵與操縱、公司避稅及風險問題研究 Research on the Effects of Tax incentives on Discretionary R&D Investment, Corporate Tax Avoidance and Firm Risks 孫鴻雁、余兆聰、洪 芳 49 Sun, Hongyan; U, Sio Chong; Hong, Fang
主動性人格如何影響員工創新行為？ How Does Proactive Personality Affect Innovative Behavior? 張鹿瑤、田 青、陳妤婕 79 Zhang, Luyao; Tian, Qing; Chen, Yujie 法㈻論文 澳門重大傳染病事件中經濟援助措施的法制完善 Research on the legal system of economic aid measures in cases of major infectious diseases in Macao 周 挺、邱奕霖 107 Zhou, Ting; Qiu, Yilin ㆟文藝術㈻論文 《雷雨》的區域演繹—近年港澳版《雷雨》舞臺排演考察 Regional Interpretation of Thunderstorm: The Stage Investigation of Hong Kong and Macau Versions about Thunderstorm in Recent Years 鄭應峰 Zheng, Yingfeng 129 ㆗㊩藥㈻論文 珠澳兩地醫療衛生相關專業大學生健康文化素養現況研究 A Study on the Current Situation of Health Culture Literacy among Medical and Health Related College Students in Zhuhai and Macao 吳哲昊、何敏妍、陳鈺瀅、吳其標、于麗麗 145 Wu, Zhehao; Ho, Manin, Chen Yuying; Wu, Qibiao; Yu, Lili
世漢㈻會國際㆗文教育研究專欄 (由教育部㆗外語言合作交流㆗心㈾助設立) 現代漢語中「V+在+NPL」結構的語義類型及形成動因 On the Semantic Types and Motivations of the Word Order of Structure“V+zai+NPL” in Modern Chinese Language 張 偉 Zhang, Wei 161 IB 課程概念為本視角下的對外漢語文化教學與設計 Instruction and Design of Culture on Teaching Chinese as a Foreign Language from the Perspective of IB Concept-based Curriculum 程 明 Cheng, Ming 183
The Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology VOL.17 NO.2 June 2023, pp.1-30 DOI: 10.58664/mustjournal.2023.06.001 1 Review of Influenza Prediction* Wei Qu136#, Yuanfang Lai3#, Zhijie Lin2, Ying Zhang2, Jingyi Liang2, Ruihan Chen2, Ruilan Deng3, Zhiqi Zeng13*, Zifeng Yang134*, Chitin Hon245*, Nanshan Zhong1 1 State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510120, People’s Republic of China. 2 Department of Engineering Science, Faculty of Innovation Engineering, Macau University of Science and Technology, Taipa, Macau, China. 3 Guangzhou Key Laboratory for Clinical Rapid Diagnosis and Early Warning of Infectious Diseases, King Med School of Laboratory Medicine, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China. 4 Guangzhou Laboratory, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510120, People’s Republic of China. 5 Respiratory Disease AI Laboratory on Epidemic Intelligence and Medical Big Data Instrument Applications, Macau, China. 6 College of Sciences, China Jiliang University, China # These authors contributed equally to this work. Abstract: Influenza is a common respiratory disease caused by the influenza virus, and each outbreak can result in a large number of infections and deaths worldwide. Predicting the dynamics of influenza outbreaks could be useful for decision-making regarding the allocation of public health resources. Due to the rapid advancement of science and technology in recent years, significant improvements have been made in influenza early warning and prediction, and the original systems have been improved and diversified. In this review, we gather several common influenza prediction systems and early warning methods, as well as some strategies to minimize prediction errors. In addition, we discuss the various data sources and collect the prediction situation on local, regional, national, or global level. Last but not least, we summarized the accuracy and advantages and disadvantages of various prediction methods. Keywords: Influenza prediction; Surveillance systems; Compartmental models; Time series analysis; Machine learning methods * Received and Accepted: 20 May 2023. This paper is Special Article for Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology.
Wei Qu, Yuanfang Lai, Zhijie Lin, Ying Zhang, Jingyi Liang, Nanshan Zhong, et al. 2 1. Introduction Influenza (flu), is an acute respiratory infection caused by the influenza virus that is highly contagious and spreads quickly. Historically, every clearly documented influenza pandemic had resulted in a large scale of infections and deaths. Today, influenza still causes about 3 to 5 million severe cases and about 250,000 to 500,000 fatalities every year.1 Influenza was and continues to be a serious public health issue confronting human society. If influenza outbreaks could be predicted in advance, health authorities would gain more valuable time to prepare invention measures against the epidemic for the sake of reducing influenza hazards and mortality. There are two main types of viruses that cause influenza, namely, influenza A virus and influenza B. Influenza early warning forecasting involves converting surveillance data from clinical laboratories for confirmed influenza and outpatient visits for suspected influenza disease into weekly incidence forecasts, while the forecast data may include crowdsourced data from social media, epidemiology, or evolution, through which models are built to track when, where, and at what ages influenza occurs and form real-time forecasts, from which modelers predict the influenza seasonal trend and peak intensity.2 Timely monitoring and analysis of influenza flu characteristics and virus activity patterns, to effectively determine the development trend of the epidemic and formulate scientific control strategies, are currently important tools for preventing influenza outbreaks and pandemics. Additionally, the theoretical study of infectious disease transmission processes, prevention and control impacts, and prediction and early warning models all benefit from the use of mathematical tools in conjunction with statistical methods. Influenza early warning prediction reflects the occurrence, development and transmission characteristics of influenza disease through mathematical models, shows its transmission mechanism and risk, analyzes the social or environmental and other factors 1 Dugas, A. F.; Jalalpour, M.; Gel, Y.; Levin, S.; Torcaso, F.; Igusa, T.; Rothman, R. E., “Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends,” PLoS One 8.2 (2013): e56176. 2 Osthus, D.; Moran, K. R., “Multiscale Influenza Forecasting,” Nat Commun 12.1 (2021): 2991.
Review of Influenza Prediction 3 associated with it, predicts the trend, realizes early warning of influenza, and evaluates the effectiveness of control measures. Meanwhile, influenza early warning prediction applies complex statistical models to the actual control of influenza, which has become a key direction in the development of public health statistics and theoretical epidemiology.3At present, the models applied to the study of influenza transmission characteristics such as prevention and control effects mainly include time series models,4 SIR dynamics models,5 neural network models,6 Bayesian-Markov chain-Monte Carlo models, regression models, etc. With the advancement of computer technology in recent years, individual-based simulation models, metacellular automata, multi-intelligent body systems, wavelet neural networks and other technologies are also gradually emerging. The main aims of the present study are to (i) summarize existing approaches to 3 Reich, N. G.; Brooks, L. C.; Fox, S. J.; Kandula, S.; McGowan, C. J.; Moore, E.; Osthus, D.; Ray, E. L.; Tushar, A.; Yamana, T. K.; Biggerstaff, M.; Johansson, M. A.; Rosenfeld, R.; Shaman, J.,“A Collaborative Multiyear, Multimodel Assessment of Seasonal Influenza Forecasting in the United States,” Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 116.8 (2019): 3146-3154. 4 Reich, N. G.; Brooks, L. C.; Fox, S. J.; Kandula, S.; McGowan, C. J.; Moore, E.; Osthus, D.; Ray, E. L.; Tushar, A.; Yamana, T. K.; Biggerstaff, M.; Johansson, M. A.; Rosenfeld, R.; Shaman, J., “A Collaborative Multiyear, Multimodel Assessment of Seasonal Influenza Forecasting in the United States,” Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 116,8 (2019): 3146-3154; Samaras, L.; Garcia-Barriocanal, E.; Sicilia, M. A., “Syndromic Surveillance Models Using Web Data: The Case of Influenza in Greece and Italy Using Google Trends,” JMIR Public Health Surveill 3.4 (2017): e90; Osthus, D.; Gattiker, J.; Priedhorsky, R.; Del Valle, S. Y., “Dynamic Bayesian Influenza Forecasting in the United States with Hierarchical Discrepancy (with Discussion).” Bayesian Analysis 14.1 (2019); Li, R.; Bai, Y.; Heaney, A.; Kandula, S.; Cai, J.; Zhao, X.; Xu, B.; Shaman, J., “Inference and forecast of H7N9 influenza in China, 2013 to 2015,” Euro Surveill 22.7 (2017). 5 Pei, S.; Shaman, J., “Counteracting Structural Errors in Ensemble Forecast ofInfluenza Outbreaks.” Nat Commun 8.1 (2017), 925; Yang, W.; Cowling, B. J.; Lau, E. H.; Shaman, J., “Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong.” PLoS Comput Biol 11,7 (2015): e1004383; Pei, S.; Kandula, S.; Yang, W.; Shaman, J., “Forecasting the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States.” Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 115.11 (2018): 2752-2757. 6 Jiang-Ning, L.; Xian-Liang, S.; An-Qiang, H.; Ze-Fang, H.; Yu-Xuan, K.; Dong, L., “Forecasting Emergency Medicine Reserve Demand with a Novel Decomposition-ensemble Methodology,” Complex Intell Systems 2021, 1-11; Paul, S.; Mgbere, O.; Arafat, R.; Yang, B.; Santos, E., “Modeling and Forecasting Influenza-like Illness (ILI) in Houston, Texas Using Three Surveillance Data Capture Mechanisms.” Online J Public Health Inform 9.2 (2017): e187; Kandula, S.; Shaman, J., “Near-term Forecasts of Influenza-like Illness: An Evaluation of Autoregressive Time Series Approaches.” Epidemics 2019, 27, 41-51; Lee, K.; Ray, J.; Safta, C., “The Predictive Skill of Convolutional Neural Networks Models for Disease Forecasting,” PLoS One 16,7 (2021): e0254319.
Wei Qu, Yuanfang Lai, Zhijie Lin, Ying Zhang, Jingyi Liang, Nanshan Zhong, et al. 4 influenza prediction, (ii) present differences in measures of accuracy and evaluate the degree to which various performance measures are met, (iii) discuss limitations in the data sources and different methods. The motivation of this review is to inform further research on influenza prediction and provide researchers and public health practitioners with a summary of the accomplishments and limitations in influenza prediction. 2. Article selection and evaluation The scope of this review includes studies on forecasting methods, data sources for model predictions, and the prediction of influenza dynamics at the local, regional, national, or global level. Firstly, we searched articles on influenza prediction on the Web of Science using the keywords “flu Prediction OR flu forecasting OR influenza Prediction OR influenza forecasting”, resulting in a total of 2522 literatures. After obtaining a general understanding of the content related to influenza prediction, we conducted a second search to identify different models used in influenza prediction. We narrowed down the search range with specific keywords, including “influenza forecast” and “SIR model”, “influenza forecast” and “SEIR model”, “influenza forecast” and “SEIRS model”, “influenza forecast” and “LSTM”, “influenza forecast”and “ARIMA”, “influenza forecast” and “GARMA”, and “influenza forecast” and “CNN”. The results showed that there were 33 literatures for the SIR model, 17 literatures for the SEIR model, 3 literatures for the SEIRS model, 21 literatures for LSTM, 47 literatures for ARIMA, 1 literature for GARMA, and 3 literatures for CNN. To identify relevant data sources for influenza prediction, we further adjusted the keywords to “influenza forecast” and “data sources”, “influenza forecast” and “ILInet”, “influenza forecast” and “Google trends”, and “influenza forecast” and “Internet”. After screening, we selected a total of 79 articles for analysis and grouped and presented the studies based on the prediction indicators. 3. Data sources From the 79 sort-listed papers, we summarize various data sources for influenza
Review of Influenza Prediction 5 prediction researches from 2006 to 2023, which can be mainly divided into 7 categories: Public health data, Hospital visit data, Virology surveillance network, Self-reported data from the general public, Social media data, Human behavior patterns, and Weather data (Table 1). These data sources demonstrate the importance of different sources in monitoring and analyzing influenza activity. CDC’s ILI data and laboratory-confirmed influenza cases are the most used sources in public health data, with a total of 64 research papers. In addition, social media and internet search data, such as Google Flu Trend, Twitter, Baidu Index, etc., account for a total of 43 research papers. Weather data, hospital visit data and human behavior patterns are also widely used, appearing 13, 13 and 5 times, respectively. Some data sources were only used once, such as Google search query data, WordPress flu-related blogs, OTC surveillance, School-based ILI surveillance, Yahoo, US DOD AFHSB'ILI data, Anonymized mobility map (AMM), Sina Weibo, National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) (Figure 1, supplement table 1). These data sources can provide seasonal and regional patterns of influenza transmission and disease trends, thereby helping to formulate relevant prevention and control strategies. Table 1. Summary of data source characteristics Data source Characteristics Reference Public health data China-CDC or CDC national sentinel surveillance system（ ILINet） weekly influenza surveillance reports, 2,4,6,14 Japanese historical ILI data (NIID data): 76 ILI datasets are available, as well as patient epidemiology of influenza outbreaks information, influenza activity levels, virus types, etc. Electronic health record data（EHR data）: 49 Includes structured (lab test results, prescriptions, ICD-10 diagnoses) and unstructured (discharge letters, pathology reports, surgery reports) patient data。 National Home Doctor Service (NHDS): 54Estimating influenza activity levels based on influenza-like 2,4,6,11,14,31,4954,76
Wei Qu, Yuanfang Lai, Zhijie Lin, Ying Zhang, Jingyi Liang, Nanshan Zhong, et al. 6 symptoms found during home visits. Lab-confirmed influenza cases: 31 Percentage of laboratory analyses that include positive tests for all respiratory specimens reported from multiple clinical laboratory facilities. US DOD AFHSB: 11 Includes health data on military personnel and their families serving within the US Department of Defense. Hospital visit data Hospital emergency center (EC) visits: 3,12 The information on age, gender, severity of illness, medication, etc. of influenza patients. 3,12 Virology surveillance network National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS): 69Virological surveillance reports the total number of respiratory specimens tested weekly and the number of influenza A and B viruses detected. 69 Self-reported data from the general public Flu Near You（FNY） : 36 A community-engaged influenza surveillance system that collects information on flu-like illness symptoms reported by the public through an online questionnaire and uses these data to monitor influenza activity levels nationwide. School-based ILI surveillance: 13 School-based influenza-like illness data includes ILI cases and leave of absence associated with ILI. 3,36 Social media data Google extended trends (GET) AP, I6,5 Google Flu Trend (GFT), 14,12 Twitter, 15,38 Google search information (ARGO), 75 Google search query data, 52Baidu Index, 53Wikipedia, 60Google Correlate, 70 WordPress flu-related blogs, 31 Yahoo: 37 Extracting timeline data on the frequency of queries for search terms or terms over a specific time period, the web tool allows users to access search trend data for various time and geographical areas to generate real-time estimates (nowcasts) of flu-like illnesses that can be used for 5-6,12,14-15,31,37-38,52-53,60,70,75
Review of Influenza Prediction 7 analysis and research. Human behavior patterns Shopping behavior: Retail dataset: 46 As a proxy for predicting seasonal influenza, changes in customer behaviour are reflected in the items purchased in the shopping basket, thus providing a valuable proxy for the spread of seasonal influenza. OTC surveillance36: Sales data from designated over-the-counter medicines for the treatment of colds and acute respiratory infections, including tablet, powder, granule and syrup forms. Commuting behavior: Commuting data: 50 Considers the spread of visitors between any two regions to predict the spread of intracity epidemics using the volume of traffic in the city. Anonymize mobility map (AMM): 24The dataset consists of an aggregation from users who have turned on the location history setting, which aggregates the traffic of people from one area to another. 24,36,46,50 Weather data Weather data provided by the weather forecasting agencies: 14,12 including temperature, local humidity, precipitation, sunlight, wind speed and other meteorological parameters that can help researchers analyse the seasonal and geographical patterns of influenza virus transmission. 12,14
Wei Qu, Yuanfang Lai, Zhijie Lin, Ying Zhang, Jingyi Liang, Nanshan Zhong, et al. 8 Figure1. Sankey diagram for classification of data sources 4. Methods Influenza prediction methods can be divided into the following categories (also can be seen in table 2). Time-series analysis-based methods can identify trends, seasonality, and periodicity in the data, and then apply these trends and periodicity to future predictions. The main advantage of this method is simplicity, but because it is based on historical data, the influence of other important factors, such as climate change and population migration. SEIR models and their various can consider many factors, such as population migration, climate change, influenza virus variation, etc., thus with high accuracy and prediction accuracy. However, the method requires substantial data and computational resources, along with having expertise in infectious disease dynamics. Models of infectious disease dynamics can be combined with social media-based methods to consider the characteristics of data and models of infectious disease dynamics on social media.
Review of Influenza Prediction 9 4.1 Methods based on the time-series analysis Time series analysis is one of the earliest methods adopted in influenza prediction, mainly including autoregressive, multiple regression, etc. Samaras, L., et al. used multiple regressions of the terms submitted in the Google search engine related to influenza for the period from 2011 to 2012 in Greece and Italy (sample data for 104 weeks for each country).7 They then used the autoregressive integrated moving average statistical model to determine the correlation between the Google search data and the real influenza cases confirmed by the aforementioned authorities. Dugas, A. F., et al. developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, 8geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Zhang, Y., et al. collected influenza notifications, temperature and Google Trends (GT) data between January 1st, 2011 and December 31st, 2016.9 They performed time-series cross correlation analysis and temporal risk analysis to discover the characteristics of influenza epidemics in the period. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and regression tree model were developed to track influenza epidemics using GT and climate data. Guolo, A. and C. Varin propose a practical approach to analyze bounded time series, through a beta regression model.10 The method allows the direct interpretation of the regression parameters on the original response scale, while properly accounting for the heteroskedasticity typical of bounded variables. The methodology is motivated by an application to the influenza-like-illness incidence estimated by the Google Flu Trends project. 7 Samaras, L.; Garcia-Barriocanal, E.; Sicilia, M. A., “Syndromic Surveillance Models Using Web Data: The Case of Influenza in Greece and Italy Using Google Trends.” JMIR Public Health Surveill 3.4 (2017): e90. 8 Dugas, A. F.; Jalalpour, M.; Gel, Y.; Levin, S.; Torcaso, F.; Igusa, T.; Rothman, R. E., “Influenza Forecasting with Google Flu Trends.” PLoS One 8.2 (2013): e56176. 9 Zhang, Y.; Bambrick, H.; Mengersen, K.; Tong, S.; Hu, W., “Using Google Trends and Ambient Temperature to Predict Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks.” Environ Int 117 (2018): 284-291. 10 Guolo, A.; Varin, C., “Beta regression for time series analysis of bounded data, with application to Canada Google® Flu Trends,” The Annals of Applied Statistics 8.1 (2014).
Wei Qu, Yuanfang Lai, Zhijie Lin, Ying Zhang, Jingyi Liang, Nanshan Zhong, et al. 10 4.2 Machine learning-based approach With the development of computer technology, machine learning-based methods are getting more and more attention. This approach utilizes machine learning algorithms to identify trends in influenza outbreaks. Su, K., et al. collect Multi-source electronic data, including historical percentage of influenza-like illness (ILI%), weather data, Baidu search index and Sina Weibo data of Chongqing, China, were collected and integrated into an innovative Self-adaptive AI Model (SAAIM), which was constructed by integrating Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model and XGBoost model using a self-adaptive weight adjustment mechanism. 11 Venkatramanan, S., et al. focus on a machine-learned anonymized mobility map (hereon referred to as AMM) aggregated over hundreds of millions of smartphones and evaluate its utility in forecasting epidemics.12 They factor AMM into a metapopulation model to retrospectively forecast influenza in the USA and Australia and show that the AMM model performs on-par with those based on commuter surveys, which are sparsely available and expensive. They also compare it with gravity and radiation-based models of mobility and find that the radiation model's performance is quite similar to AMM and commuter flows. Additionally, they demonstrate the model's ability to predict disease spread even across state boundaries. Yang, L., et al. established a new multiattention-long short-term memory (LSTM) deep-learning model (MAL model), which was used to predict the percentage of ILI (ILI%) cases and the product of ILI% and the influenza-positive rate (ILI%xpositive%), respectively.13 They 11 Su, K.; Xu, L.; Li, G.; Ruan, X.; Li, X.; Deng, P.; Li, X.; Li, Q.; Chen, X.; Xiong, Y.; Lu, S.; Qi, L.; Shen, C.; Tang, W.; Rong, R.; Hong, B.; Ning, Y.; Long, D.; Xu, J.; Shi, X.; Yang, Z.; Zhang, Q.; Zhuang, Z.; Zhang, L.; Xiao, J.; Li, Y., “Forecasting Influenza Activity Using Self-adaptive AI Model and Multi-source Data in Chongqing, China.” EBioMedicine 47 (2019): 284-292. 12 Venkatramanan, S.; Sadilek, A.; Fadikar, A.; Barrett, C. L.; Biggerstaff, M.; Chen, J.; Dotiwalla, X.; Eastham, P.; Gipson, B.; Higdon, D.; Kucuktunc, O.; Lieber, A.; Lewis, B. L.; Reynolds, Z.; Vullikanti, A. K.; Wang, L.; Marathe, M., “Forecasting Influenza Activity Using Machine-learned Mobility Map.” Nat Commun 12.1 (2021), 726. 13 Yang, L.; Li, G.; Yang, J.; Zhang, T.; Du, J.; Liu, T.; Zhang, X.; Han, X.; Li, W.; Ma, L.; Feng, L.; Yang, W., “Deep-Learning Model for Influenza Prediction From Multisource Heterogeneous Data in a Megacity: Model Development and Evaluation.” J Med Internet Res 25 (2023): e44238.
Review of Influenza Prediction 11 also combined the data in different forms and added several machine-learning and deep-learning models commonly used in the past to predict influenza trends for comparison. Lu, F. S., et al. introduce a methodological framework which dynamically combines two distinct influenza tracking techniques, using an ensemble machine learning approach, to achieve improved state-level influenza activity estimates in the United States.14 Clemente, L., et al. use machine learning-based methodology that uses flu-related Internet search activity and historical information to monitor flu activity, named ARGO (AutoRegression with Google search), was extended to generate flu predictions for 8 Latin American countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay) for the time period: January 2012 to December 2016.15 4.3 Methods based on a kinetic model of infectious diseases Pei, S. and J. Shaman conducted an investigation on the error growth of a compartmental influenza model, and discovered that a robust error structure emerges naturally from the nonlinear dynamics of the model.16 They developed a novel forecasting method by addressing these structural errors identified through error breeding. This approach combines dynamical error correction with statistical filtering techniques. Yang, W., et al. conducted a retrospective study in which they applied susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model-filter systems to predict influenza epidemics in Hong Kong from January 1998 to December 2013, including the 2009 pandemic.17 The model predicted the timing and magnitude of the peak for 44 epidemics caused by various influenza strains, such as seasonal influenza A(H1N1), pandemic A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and 14 Lu, F. S.; Hattab, M. W.; Clemente, C. L.; Biggerstaff, M.; Santillana, M., “Improved State-level Influenza Nowcasting in the United States Leveraging Internet-based Data and Network Approaches,” Nat Commun, 10.1 (2019): 147. 15 Clemente, L.; Lu, F.; Santillana, M., “Improved Real-Time Influenza Surveillance: Using Internet Search Data in Eight Latin American Countries.” JMIR Public Health Surveill 5.2 (2019): e12214. 16 Pei, S.; Shaman, J., Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks. Nat Commun 2017, 8 (1), 925. 17 Yang, W.; Cowling, B. J.; Lau, E. H.; Shaman, J., Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong. PLoS Comput Biol 2015, 11 (7), e1004383.
Wei Qu, Yuanfang Lai, Zhijie Lin, Ying Zhang, Jingyi Liang, Nanshan Zhong, et al. 12 B, as well as 19 epidemics caused by a combination of these strains. Axelsen, J. B., et al. utilized a basic epidemiological model to demonstrate the multiyear predictability of influenza outbreaks using high-quality surveillance data for Israel.18 The study confirmed the model's accuracy through metapopulation comparisons within Israel. They found that successful forecasting relied on factors such as temperature, humidity, antigenic drift, and immunity loss. Dukic, V., et al. incorporated a classical mathematical epidemiology model, specifically a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model, into the state-space framework, which allowed for changes in SEIR dynamics over time.19 The authors used a particle filtering algorithm to implement this model, which learned about the epidemic process sequentially over time and provided updated odds of a pandemic with each new surveillance data point. Trawicki, M. suggested a novel SEIRS model that generalizes various classical deterministic epidemic models, including SIR, SIS, SEIR, and SEIRS.20 The SEIRS model incorporated vital dynamics with different birth and death rates, vaccinations for both newborns and non-newborns, and temporary immunity. Hill, E. M., et al. combined multiple data sources to calibrate a transmission model for seasonal influenza that includes susceptible, latent, infected, and recovered compartments.21 The model incorporated the four main influenza strains and mechanisms that linked prior season epidemiological outcomes to immunity at the beginning of the following season. Postnikov, E. B demonstrated that the SIRS (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered- 18 Axelsen, J. B.; Yaari, R.; Grenfell, B. T.; Stone, L., “Multiannual Forecasting of Seasonal Influenza Dynamics Reveals Climatic and Evolutionary Drivers.” Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 111.26 (2014): 9538-42. 19 Dukic, V.; Lopes, H. F.; Polson, N. G., “Tracking Epidemics With Google Flu Trends Data and a State-Space SEIR Model.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 107.500 (2012): 1410-1426. 20 Trawicki, M., “Deterministic Seirs Epidemic Model for Modeling Vital Dynamics, Vaccinations, and Temporary Immunity,” Mathematics 5.1 (2017). 21 Hill, E. M.; Petrou, S.; de Lusignan, S.; Yonova, I.; Keeling, M. J., “Seasonal influenza: Modelling Approaches to Capture Immunity Propagation.” PLoS Comput Biol 15.10 (2019): e1007096.
Review of Influenza Prediction 13 Susceptible) model accurately reproduced actual flu activity curves. 22 This model contained a variable reaction rate, which was dependent on the mean daily temperature. By representing the SIRS equations as a second-order ODE with an outer excitation, the authors explained the origin of the model's predictive efficiency and analytically justify the 1:1 dynamical resonance, which was a crucial property of epidemic behavior. 4.4 Hybrid method-based approach In addition to the above methods, several researchers have explored ways to mix the different methods. Scarpino, S. V., et al. utilized a versatile statistical framework to evaluate the efficacy of traditional (ILINet) and advanced (BioSense 2.0 and Google Flu Trends) surveillance systems for assessing the incidence of influenza across different poverty levels.23 The study used multiple data sources and statistical methods to identify the strengths and weaknesses of each system for situational awareness of influenza. Baltrusaitis, K., et al. conducted an analysis of the Flu Near You (FNY) participant demographics during the 2014-2015 flu season and compared them to the general US population in terms of sex, age, and Human Development Index (HDI) scores.24 They also studied the relationship between participant follow-up and demographic and behavioral factors. Additionally, they calculated descriptive statistics of responses from FNY's 2015 and 2016 end-of-season user surveys. Santillana, M., et al. developed a machine learning-based methodology that utilizes data from various sources such as Google searches, Twitter microblogs, hospital visit records, and participatory surveillance system to provide real-time and forecast estimates of influenza activity in the US.25 22 Postnikov, E. B.; Tatarenkov, D. V., “Prediction of Flu Epidemic Activity with Dynamical Model Based on Weather Forecast.” Ecol. Complex. 15 (2013): 109-113. 23 Scarpino, S. V.; Scott, J. G.; Eggo, R. M.; Clements, B.; Dimitrov, N. B.; Meyers, L. A., “Socioeconomic Bias in Influenza Surveillance,” PLoS Comput Biol 16.7 (2020): e1007941. 24 Baltrusaitis, K.; Santillana, M.; Crawley, A. W.; Chunara, R.; Smolinski, M.; Brownstein, J. S., “Determinants of Participants’ Follow-Up and Characterization of Representativeness in Flu Near You, A Participatory Disease Surveillance System.” JMIR Public Health Surveill 3.2 (2017): e18. 25 Santillana, M.; Nguyen, A. T.; Dredze, M.; Paul, M. J.; Nsoesie, E. O.; Brownstein, J. S., “Combining
Wei Qu, Yuanfang Lai, Zhijie Lin, Ying Zhang, Jingyi Liang, Nanshan Zhong, et al. 14 Pawelek, K. A., et al. have created a mathematical model to study the impact of tweets on the transmission of influenza among a population.26 The model considers the dynamics of short Twitter messages and how they can increase disease awareness, change behavior, and decrease transmission. The researchers derive the basic reproductive number of the model and prove the stability of the steady states. They find that a threshold curve is crossed, causing a Hopf bifurcation and the possibility of multiple outbreaks of influenza. Table2. Comparison of Influenza prediction methods Influenza prediction method Count of references Total citations References Time series 26 2393 1，5，8，13，18，28，33，37，39，42，44，46，48，52，53，54，58，61，64，66，68，69，73，76，82，84 Machine learning 29 1289 2，3，4，6，9，12，14，15，16，23，24，25，26，27，29，31，35，38，40，41，45，49，50，59，62，70，74，75，83 epidemic dynamics model 16 1045 7，10，11，17，19，20，21，22，51，56，57，60，63，65，71，81 Mixed method 8 1000 30，32，34，36，47，55，67，72 Search, Social Media, and Traditional Data Sources to Improve Influenza Surveillance.” PLoS Comput Biol 11.10 (2015): e1004513. 26 Pawelek, K. A.; Oeldorf-Hirsch, A.; Rong, L., “Modeling the Impact of Twitter on Influenza Epidemics.” Math Biosci Eng 11.6 (2014): 1337-56.
Review of Influenza Prediction 15 Figure2. Comparison of Influenza prediction methods 5. Accuracy The accuracy of prediction methods can be assessed using statistical measures such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute percentage Error (MAPE), and Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), depending on the type of prediction, whether classification or regression. Dukic et al. reported that Dante outperformed the Dynamic Bayesian Model (DBM) in terms of accuracy, as measured by mean squared error (MSE) of point predictions (posterior means), at all geographic scales.27 In Catalonia, the accuracy of the method was measured by calculating the mean squared error (MSE) of the predicted rates at one and two weeks ahead for the five different models (ARIMA, LM, GLS, FLM, and FGLS) and for the seven regions in local region.28 Su et al. achieved a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 11.9% between 2014 and 2016, and the study used a specialized bootstrap strategy for time series to obtain 95% prediction intervals, which enclosed 96.2% of the true ILI% data points from 2017 to 27 Osthus, D.; Moran, K. R., “Multiscale Influenza Forecasting,” Nat Commun 12.1 (2021): 2991. 28 Basile, L.; Oviedo de la Fuente, M.; Torner, N.; Martinez, A.; Jane, M., “Real-time Predictive Seasonal Influenza Model in Catalonia, Spain.” PLoS One 13.2 (2018): e0193651.
Wei Qu, Yuanfang Lai, Zhijie Lin, Ying Zhang, Jingyi Liang, Nanshan Zhong, et al. 16 2018.29 The linear regression model achieved the highest accuracy results using the measure of Pearson correlation for the module of weekly flu rate estimation, demonstrating a strong correlation of 96.29% with available data from Centers for Disease Control (CDC) as the ground truth.30 Pearson's correlation coefficient (PCC) was 0.931. The other tested queries were based on structured data.31 Some articles compare measurement accuracy with many metrics. Yang et al. used the R-value, explained variance scores, MAE, and MSE to evaluate the quality of the models, with the highest correlation coefficients found for the Baidu search data for ILI% and for air quality for ILI% × positive%.32 Other studies used machine learning algorithms and qualitative measures to improve short-term predictions of flu activity, with MAE values ranging from 0.016 to 0.034 and RMSE values ranging from 0.021 to 0.047, indicating that their models outperformed traditional linear regression models in terms of prediction accuracy.33 The TL-based model leveraging the combination of ILI surveillance data, weather data, and Twitter data achieved the best performance, with an RMSE of 0.128 and a PCC of 0.822.34 29 Su, K.; Xu, L.; Li, G.; Ruan, X.; Li, X.; Deng, P.; Li, X.; Li, Q.; Chen, X.; Xiong, Y.; Lu, S.; Qi, L.; Shen, C.; Tang, W.; Rong, R.; Hong, B.; Ning, Y.; Long, D.; Xu, J.; Shi, X.; Yang, Z.; Zhang, Q.; Zhuang, Z.; Zhang, L.; Xiao, J.; Li, Y., “Forecasting Influenza Activity Using Self-adaptive AI Model and Multi-source Data in Chongqing, China.” EBioMedicine 47 (2019): 284-292. 30 Alessa, A.; Faezipour, M., “Flu Outbreak Prediction Using Twitter Posts Classification and Linear Regression With Historical Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Reports: Prediction Framework Study,” JMIR Public Health Surveill 5.2 (2019): e12383. 31 Bouzille, G.; Poirier, C.; Campillo-Gimenez, B.; Aubert, M. L.; Chabot, M.; Chazard, E.; Lavenu, A.; Cuggia, M., “Leveraging hospital big data to monitor flu epidemics. Comput,” Meth. Programs Biomed.154 (2018): 153-160. 32 Yang, L.; Li, G.; Yang, J.; Zhang, T.; Du, J.; Liu, T.; Zhang, X.; Han, X.; Li, W.; Ma, L.; Feng, L.; Yang, W., “Deep-Learning Model for Influenza Prediction From Multisource Heterogeneous Data in a Megacity: Model Development and Evaluation.” J Med Internet Res 25 (2023): e44238. 33 Xue, H.; Bai, Y.; Hu, H.; Liang, H., “Regional Level Influenza Study Based on Twitter and Machine Learning Method,” PLoS One 14.4 (2019): e0215600; Moss, R.; Zarebski, A.; Dawson, P.; Mc, C. J., “Retrospective Forecasting of the 2010-2014 Melbourne Influenza Seasons Using Multiple Surveillance Systems,” Epidemiol Infect 145.1 (2017): 156-169. 34 Athanasiou, M.; Fragkozidis, G.; Zarkogianni, K.; Nikita, K. S., “Long Short-term Memory-Based Prediction of the Spread of Influenza-Like Illness Leveraging Surveillance, Weather, and Twitter Data:
Review of Influenza Prediction 17 In summary, evaluating the accuracy of prediction methods requires various statistical measures and methods, depending on the type of prediction. Cross-validation or holdout validation sets are necessary to avoid overfitting and ensure the model generalizes well to unseen data. Many studies have used different metrics and approaches to assess the accuracy of their models, such as correlation analysis, regression analysis, time series modeling, and machine learning algorithms. The use of specialized strategies and multiple measures can provide a more comprehensive evaluation of the model's performance and contribute to the development of more accurate prediction methods. 6. Limitation At present, the shortcomings of influenza prediction research are mainly divided into three aspects: data, model, and application. In terms of data, the current prediction research has two problems, such as low data quality and unstable source. The low quality of prediction data is mainly reflected in the lack of time dimension, single data type, and poor representativeness. Gabriel J Milinovich et al, based on seasonal influenza data in the last 5 years, may not monitor the same seasonal data of the same subtype, increasing the difficulty of modeling. Regarding the data source, the lack of laboratory data is an important factor limiting the accuracy of the model.35 Most of the current studies were the percentage of influenza-like cases (ILI%) monitored by local or national CDC and the main limitation being the inability to distinguish the epidemic intensity of other non-influenza respiratory pathogens, such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), with clinical manifestations similar to that of influenza.36 The lack of real nucleic Model Development and Validation.” J Med Internet Res 25 (2023): e42519. 35 Milinovich, G. J.; Williams, G. M.; Clements, A. C.; Hu, W., “Internet-based Surveillance Systems for Monitoring Emerging Infectious Diseases.” Lancet Infect Dis 14.2 (2014): 160-8; Polgreen, P. M.; Chen, Y.; Pennock, D. M.; Nelson, F. D., “Using Internet Searches for Influenza Surveillance.” Clin Infect Dis 47.11 (2008): 1443-8; Li, R.; Bai, Y.; Heaney, A.; Kandula, S.; Cai, J.; Zhao, X.; Xu, B.; Shaman, J., “Inference and forecast of H7N9 influenza in China, 2013 to 2015,” Euro Surveill 22.7 (2017). 36 Paul, S.; Mgbere, O.; Arafat, R.; Yang, B.; Santos, E., “Modeling and Forecasting Influenza-like Illness (ILI) in Houston, Texas Using Three Surveillance Data Capture Mechanisms.” Online J Public Health Inform 9.2 (2017): e187; Yin, R.; Tran, V. H.; Zhou, X.; Zheng, J.; Kwoh, C. K., “Predicting Antigenic
Wei Qu, Yuanfang Lai, Zhijie Lin, Ying Zhang, Jingyi Liang, Nanshan Zhong, et al. 18 acid detection data in influenza prediction studies can lead to the problem of low lag and low specificity of prediction results. Moreover, these studies lack data considering antigen detection and serological testing, which prevents the prediction results from reflecting the ability of current seasonal vaccination to protect against epidemic strains, thus affecting the accuracy of the prediction model. In addition, Mauricio Santillana et al. have predicted data from specific geographic locations (such as Greece or two US states) to forecast the outbreaks of influenza in additional states and counties. 37 If it is good for national prediction, sampling error will affect the effect of model prediction. To enhance the generalization of prediction models, it is advantageous to make predictions based on publicly available databases. At present, some of the prediction data are from private companies, which are faced with the problem of limited data update at any time or limited access, which poses a great challenge in the process of model promotion.38 Variants of H1N1 Influenza Virus Based on Epidemics and Pandemics Using a Stacking Model.” PLoS One 13.12 (2018): e0207777; Dong, X.; Boulton, M. L.; Carlson, B.; Montgomery, J. P.; Wells, E. V., “Syndromic surveillance for influenza in Tianjin, China: 2013-14.” J Public Health (Oxf) 39.2 (2017): 274-281; Agor, J. K.; Ozaltin, O. Y., “Models for predicting the evolution of influenza to inform vaccine strain selection.” Hum Vaccin Immunother 14.3 (2018): 678-683. 37 Santillana, M.; Nguyen, A. T.; Dredze, M.; Paul, M. J.; Nsoesie, E. O.; Brownstein, J. S., “Combining Search, Social Media, and Traditional Data Sources to Improve Influenza Surveillance.” PLoS Comput Biol 11.10 (2015): e1004513; Scarpino, S. V.; Scott, J. G.; Eggo, R. M.; Clements, B.; Dimitrov, N. B.; Meyers, L. A., “Socioeconomic Bias in Influenza Surveillance.” PLoS Comput Biol 16.7 (2020): e1007941; Xu, J.; Wu, Q., “Prediction on Influenza-like Virus Pathogen and its Effects on Prognosis of Patients with Community Acquired Pneumonia under Long and Short Term Memory Neural Network Model.” Results in Physics 24 (2021); Morita, H.; Kramer, S.; Heaney, A.; Gil, H.; Shaman, J., “Influenza Forecast Optimization when Using Different Surveillance Data Types and Geographic Scale.” Influenza Other Respir Viruses 12.6 (2018): 755-764; Zhang, Y.; Bambrick, H.; Mengersen, K.; Tong, S.; Hu, W., “Using Google Trends and ambient temperature to predict seasonal influenza outbreaks.” Environ Int 117 (2018): 284-291; Agor, J. K.; Ozaltin, O. Y., “Models for predicting the evolution of influenza to inform vaccine strain selection.” Hum Vaccin Immunother 14.3 (2018): 678-683; Venkatramanan, S.; Sadilek, A.; Fadikar, A.; Barrett, C. L.; Biggerstaff, M.; Chen, J.; Dotiwalla, X.; Eastham, P.; Gipson, B.; Higdon, D.; Kucuktunc, O.; Lieber, A.; Lewis, B. L.; Reynolds, Z.; Vullikanti, A. K.; Wang, L.; Marathe, M., “Forecasting Influenza Activity Using Machine-Learned Mobility Map.” Nat Commun 12.1 (2021): 726. 38 Zimmer, C.; Leuba, S. I.; Yaesoubi, R.; Cohen, T., “Use of Daily Internet Search Query Data Improves Real-time Projections of Influenza Epidemics.” J R Soc Interface 15.147 (2018); Yang, L.; Li, G.; Yang, J.; Zhang, T.; Du, J.; Liu, T.; Zhang, X.; Han, X.; Li, W.; Ma, L.; Feng, L.; Yang, W., “Deep-Learning Model for Influenza Prediction from Multisource Heterogeneous Data in a Megacity: Model Development and Evaluation.” J Med Internet Res 25 (2023): e44238; Schneider, P. P.; Van Gool, C. J.; Spreeuwenberg, P.;
Review of Influenza Prediction 19 Data processing, modeling and model validation are all an important part of establishing a reliable influenza model. If current influenza prediction studies apply to multiple time series, different data streams may be measured at different time intervals, and they are often standardized for convenience, which may lead to loss of key information and reduce timeliness.39 In addition, J. Zhang and K. Nawata first predicted multiple data features (such as temperature and humidity weather), and then further constructs influenza ILI% prediction model based on the above prediction data.40 The mechanism is like MSP, leading to the accumulation of prediction error step by step. Choosing the appropriate prediction model based on the research purpose is the focus of improving the research quality. Multiple influenza prediction studies reflect limitations such as discomfort for emerging infectious diseases, low accuracy, limited observed abundance and availability, and no advantages compared with previous teamwork. 41 Compared with traditional mathematical models, disease transmission dynamics is a certain advantage. This model can quantify the population according to the natural history of infectious disease transmission in infection, severe disease, recovery, and also make subgroup deduction according to the age composition of the population, so as to obtain a more realistic mathematical model of the epidemic. Hooiveld, M.; Donker, G. A.; Barnett, D. J.; Paget, J., “Using Web Search Queries to Monitor Influenza-like Illness: An Exploratory Retrospective Analysis, Netherlands, 2017/18 Influenza Season.” Euro Surveill 25.21 (2020); Alessa, A.; Faezipour, M., “A Review of Influenza Detection and Prediction through Social Networking Sites.” Theor Biol Med Model 15.1 (2018): 2. 39 Dukic, V.; Lopes, H. F.; Polson, N. G., “Tracking Epidemics With Google Flu Trends Data and a State-Space SEIR Model.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 107.500 (2012): 1410-1426; Sebastiani, P.; Mandl, K. D.; Szolovits, P.; Kohane, I. S.; Ramoni, M. F., “A Bayesian Dynamic Model for Influenza Surveillance.” Stat Med 25.11 (2006): 1803-16; discussion: 1817-25. 40 Zhang, J.; Nawata, K., “Multi-step prediction for influenza outbreak by an adjusted long short-term memory.” Epidemiol Infect 146.7 (2018): 809-816. 41 Aiken, E. L.; Nguyen, A. T.; Viboud, C.; Santillana, M., “Toward the Use of Neural Networks for Influenza Prediction at Multiple Spatial Resolutions.” Sci. Adv. 7.25 (2021): 13; Yamana, T. K.; Kandula, S.; Shaman, J., “Individual Versus Superensemble Forecasts of Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks in the United States.” PLoS Comput Biol 13.11 (2017): e1005801; Pei, S.; Shaman, J., “Counteracting Structural Errors in Ensemble Forecast of Influenza Outbreaks.” Nat Commun 8.1 (2017): 925; Cheng, H. Y.; Wu, Y. C.; Lin, M. H.; Liu, Y. L.; Tsai, Y. Y.; Wu, J. H.; Pan, K. H.; Ke, C. J.; Chen, C. M.; Liu, D. P.; Lin, I. F.; Chuang, J. H., “Applying Machine Learning Models with An Ensemble Approach for Accurate Real-Time Influenza Forecasting in Taiwan: Development and Validation Study.” J Med Internet Res 22.8 (2020): e15394.
Wei Qu, Yuanfang Lai, Zhijie Lin, Ying Zhang, Jingyi Liang, Nanshan Zhong, et al. 20 Influenza forecasting is ultimately used to support public health decisions. Accurate prediction and prediction-based prevention and control recommendations enable health authorities to make a timely and early response. However, the current research generally reflects the problem of low application, partly based on the relevant studies developed from hospital electronic cases or local health departments, and lack of regional universality verification, making it difficult to achieve flexible retrieval of data from different geographic regions.42 In addition, the current is mostly for seasonal influenza research, the upcoming outbreak of influenza epidemic research is relatively weak. 7. Conclusion Reliable predictions of indicators such as trends, peak, and duration during influenza outbreaks can provide a basis for resource allocation in medical institutions. Therefore, government can prepare for a surge in influenza cases by obtaining necessary resources such as vaccines and medical staffs such as nurses and doctors. However, predictions must be interpretable and effective to be useful. Therefore, research must clearly define the temporal and spatial applicability of the predicted events and methods, quantify the likelihood of events in terms of probability statements or relative to other similar events, and emphasize their limitations. In addition, defining a global accuracy measure for evaluating the correctness of various prediction methods will simplify the process of comparing predictions. Thus, challenges still exist in the real-time evaluation and quantification of the performance of these methods. 42 Murayama, T.; Shimizu, N.; Fujita, S.; Wakamiya, S.; Aramaki, E., “Robust Two-stage Influenza Prediction Model Considering Regular and Irregular Trends.” PLoS One 15.5 (2020): e0233126; Lu, F. S.; Hattab, M. W.; Clemente, C. L.; Biggerstaff, M.; Santillana, M., “Improved State-level Influenza Nowcasting in the United States Leveraging Internet-based Data and Network Approaches.” Nat Commun 10.1 (2019): 147; Clemente, L.; Lu, F.; Santillana, M., “Improved Real-Time Influenza Surveillance: Using Internet Search Data in Eight Latin American Countries.” JMIR Public Health Surveill 5.2 (2019): e12214; Bouzille, G.; Poirier, C.; Campillo-Gimenez, B.; Aubert, M. L.; Chabot, M.; Chazard, E.; Lavenu, A.; Cuggia, M., “Leveraging Hospital Big Data to Monitor Flu Epidemics. Comput. Meth.” Programs Biomed. 154 (2018): 153-160; Osthus, D.; Moran, K. R., “Multiscale Influenza Forecasting.” Nat Commun 12.1 (2021): 2991.
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Wei Qu, Yuanfang Lai, Zhijie Lin, Ying Zhang, Jingyi Liang, Nanshan Zhong, et al. 30 This study was funded in part by the following agencies: National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2022YFC2600705); Self-supporting Program of Guangzhou Laboratory，Grant No. SRPG22-007; Science and Technology Development Fund of Macau SAR (005/2022/ALC); Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou (No. 2022B01W0003); Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou (Grant No. 202102100003); Science and Technology Development Fund of Macau SAR (0045/2021/A); Macau University of Science and Technology（FRG-20-021-MISE）. Competing Interests Statement We declare no competing interests. * Corresponding Authors information: Dr. Chitin Hon. Department of Engineering Science, Faculty of Innovation Engineering, Macau University of Science and Technology, Taipa, Macau, China. Email: cthon@must.edu.mo Dr. Zifeng Yang. National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, 151 Yanjiang Road, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510120, China. Email: Jeffyah@163.com Dr. Zhiqi Zeng. State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China. Email: zeng_zhiq@126.com
張倩孺 32 How to Establish the Promoter’s Liability on Pre-incorporation Contracts? An Analytical Perspective Based on Departmental Law and Sociology of Law Zhang, Qianru (Assistant Professor, School of Business, Macau University of Science and Technology) Abstract: A company is a significant business organizational form characterized by its independent legal personality. During its formative, pre-incorporation phase, the promoter carries out essential preparatory tasks, including contract agreements. This research scrutinizes the legal norms and liabilities relating to a promoter’s contractual conduct from the departmental law’s internal viewpoint, while applying identity theory from the sociology of law’s external perspective to interpret such conduct. The study underscores role identity, role expectation, and commitment as critical connectors between the individual promoter and society. It also highlights the anticipatory role of law and the importance of specific norms in shaping the promoter’s contractual liability, thereby establishing a paradigm from identification to action. The paper further deliberates on the theoretical and practical relevance of encouraging entrepreneurship, upholding fairness, and mitigating disputes during the company’s formative phase. Keywords: Promoters; Contractual liability; Legal norms; Identity theory
如何規範設立中公司發起人契約責任？—基於部門法與法社會學的分析視角 35 以英國為例，發起⼈是「使公司存在⽽作出各種商業⾏為的主體」，11並被解釋為商業⽽非法律術語。〈英國公司法〉（2006）第⼆部分第 7條：「公司由⼀個或多個⼈通過簽署備忘錄並遵守公司法有關註冊要求設⽴⽽成。」12德國公司法同樣強調簽訂章程於發起⼈的重要性，並以此作為衡量是否為發起⼈的標誌。 我國學術界對發起⼈的界定主要包括「責任區分說」「籌建標準說」以及「綜合說」等。持「責任區分說」的學者認為發起⼈不同於出資⼈，「區分實際負責設⽴事務的發起⼈和不參與設⽴事務⽽僅履⾏出資義務的出資⼈。」13「籌建標準說」側重於討論發起⼈是否參與了公司籌建⼯作，並區別「發起⼈與設⽴⼈」。14「綜合說」從宏觀的角度對發起⼈進⾏定義，即「籌劃設⽴事務、從事設⽴⾏為，並於公司章程上署名的⼈。」15 《最⾼⼈民法院關於適⽤〈中華⼈民共和國公司法〉若⼲問題的規定（三）》（以下簡稱〈公司法解釋三〉），明確公司發起⼈「簽署章程、認購出資或股份、履⾏設⽴職責等三項基本內容及兩類主體範圍。」16 綜上所述，公司發起⼈是以設⽴公司為⽬標，履⾏簽署章程、出資以及其他設⽴申請⾏為並為此承擔責任的主體，包括股份有限公司發起⼈以及有限責任公司設⽴時的股東。 三、規範發起人責任的社會邏輯 11 Lloyd Malcolm, “The Principles of the Law Relating to Corporate Liability for Acts of Promoters,” The American Law Register and Review 45.9 (Pennsylvania:1897.09): 545. 12 The National Archives. “The Companies Act 2006.” Legislation Gov UK. Accessed April 6, 2022. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/46/contents. 13 吳越，〈公司設立民事責任歸責模式研究—兼評最高法院的司法解釋意見稿〉，《法學研究》，第 4期（北京：2007.07），52。 14 方斯遠，〈先公司合同問題研究〉，《中國法學》，第 3期（北京：2015.06），234。 15 李黎明，〈公司發起人的民事責任〉，《法學雜誌》，第 5期（北京：1998.09），18。 16 中華人民共和國最高人民法院，《最高人民法院關於適用〈中華人民共和國公司法〉若干問題的規定（三）》，最高人民法院官網，https://www.court.gov.cn/fabu-xiangqing-2178.html，瀏覽日期為 2022年 3月 2日。
張倩孺 36 （㆒）、「身份」理論 法律是⼀種社會建構，⽽社會是構建法律的基礎。前者以規則的基本形式確定權利、義務以及責任︔⽽後者，是以瞭解規則背後的法社會學原理作為分析法律的條件。對公司設⽴階段的商事活動主體進⾏法社會學探討，有助於建⽴發起⼈與社會結構的關聯，此外，運⽤身份理論的角⾊認同與角⾊期待，能夠解釋發起⼈責任擔當的社會意義。 ⾸先，「身份是與角⾊相連的⾃我認知，並通過角⾊與有組織的社會關係中的職位相聯繫。」17理論中的角⾊可能包括家庭角⾊、職業角⾊、政治角⾊抑或娛樂角⾊等，⽽公司設⽴者的角⾊是「發起⼈」與「社會」之間在社會學意義上的聯繫，此時，我們只關注多重角⾊意義的⼀部分。「身份代表著在具體法律關係中被⼈所知悉的職業或地位，⽽不是以意識形態作為分類標準或在政治地位上有所不同。」18身份認知能從⼀定程度上影響⾏動者，如果說法律規範是從外部規束發起⼈的⾏為，那麼，「社會角⾊」認同使命將會賦予發起⼈的⾃覺意識。「社會可以影響⾃我，並通過⾃我影響社會。」19換⾔之，「⼈們之間結構化的角⾊關係可以影響⾃我，同時通過⾃我影響社會，並存在⼀定的互惠性。」20發起⼈設⽴公司是⼀種社會⾏為，基於角⾊的認同，其對發起⼈⾃覺意識的影響，與發起⼈對社會的影響具有相互作⽤的關係。 其次，身份理論解釋了⼈們的⾏為因「身份」⽽產⽣了角⾊期待，以及個⼈負有責任擔當的原因。「⼈類社會⾏為是被周圍（物質的和社會的）環境⽅⽅⾯⾯的象徵性稱呼所組織的，」21「與稱呼緊密相連的是如何充當角⾊和如何處理好⾃⼰與他⼈關係的預期。」22 對角⾊的稱呼取決於⼈們在社會結構中位置的關聯，這是⼀種 17 Stryker Sheldon, “Identity Theory and Personality Theory: Mutual Relevance,” Journal of Personality. 75.6 (Connecticut: 2007.12):1092. 18 胡玉鴻，〈個人獨特性與法律普遍性之調適〉，《法學研究》，第 6期（北京：2010.11），44。 19 Stryker Sheldon, “Identity Theory and Personality Theory: Mutual Relevance,” 1089. 20 Stryker Sheldon and Serpe Richard T., “Commitment, Identity Salience, and Role Behavior: Theory and Research Example,” in Personality, roles, and social behavior, eds. William Ickes and Eric S. Knowles. (New York: Springer-Verlag, 1982), 200. 21 喬納森·H.特納著、邱澤奇、張茂元等譯，《社會學理論的結構》，（南京：華夏出版社，2006），347。 22 喬納森·H.特納著、邱澤奇、張茂元等譯，《社會學理論的結構》，347。
如何規範設立中公司發起人契約責任？—基於部門法與法社會學的分析視角 37 具有象征意義的符號。⼈與⼈之間的互動，因角⾊稱呼⽽產⽣如何⾏動的預期。因此，發起⼈簽署章程、出資以及履⾏其他設⽴申請⾏為，是基於角⾊義務的要求，並且由角⾊稱呼產⽣對發起⼈個體⾏動的預期。 再次，發起⼈的社會角⾊，如果能夠與社會預期相互協調，將會增加發起⼈「身份」責任的擔當感。發起⼈可能處於社會結構的不同「場景中」，從⽽不斷激發與其身份相聯繫的責任擔當。通過履⾏相應的設⽴⾏為，發起⼈「助⼒」⼀個計劃中的「組織形式」獲得獨⽴法律⼈格。此時，發⽣約束作⽤的不僅是法律規則，還涉及社會規範，即「無需國家強制⼒『在場』, 它們依靠社群交往、公共輿論、聲譽約束可以成就出⾊的⾃我實施。」23根據身份理論，發起⼈履⾏設⽴中公司的契約⾏為，在⼀定程度上，是以對身份的⾃覺為內在動機，「此時強調影響社會⾏為的⾃我過程的內部動⼒。」24同時，以滿⾜對設⽴公司者社會角⾊的期待。 總之，角⾊認同、角⾊期待以及責任當擔，成為發起⼈個⼈與社會之間的關鍵紐帶，進⽽以設⽴公司為⾏動⽬標，公司利益至上為價值⽬標。 （㆓）、維護㈳會秩序 討論⼈與⼈之間的社會關係，尤其是調整性法律關係，需要置於特定的社會情境之中剖析具體規則，如制定、解釋與適⽤。在公司設⽴過程中，有關發起⼈的法律關係介於發起⼈之間、發起⼈與債權⼈之間、發起⼈與成⽴後的公司以及社會等諸多範疇。相應地，規範發起⼈對設⽴中公司的契約責任也涉及多種法律關係，因⽽對其研究應融合於社會有機整體之中，以更好地促進商事交易，維護社會公平。 「社會是⼀種⼈類⾏為的秩序。」25法與社會之間的關係長久以來都是法社會學家追問並探討的話題。「⼈類所有集體⽣活都直接或間接地為法律所塑造。正如知識⼀樣，法律是存在於社會條件中的基礎性的、全⽅位滲透的事實。」26「法律宛如社 23 吳元元，〈認真對待社會規范—法律社會學的功能分析視角〉，《法學》，第 8 期（上海，2020.08），64。 24 Stryker Sheldon and Burke Peter J., “The Past, Present, and Future of an Identity Theory,” Social psychology quarterly 63.4 (California: 2000.12): 285. 25 雷磊，〈法社會學與規范性問題的關聯方式力量與限度〉，《中外法學》，第 200期（北京：2021.11），1408。 26 尼克拉斯·盧曼著、賓凱、趙春燕譯，《法社會學》，（上海：上海人民出版社，2013），39。
張倩孺 38 會的⼀⾯鏡⼦，其發揮著維持社會秩序的功能。」27除卻規範作⽤之外，法的社會作⽤還體現為維護社會秩序。規範發起⼈責任對於維護社會秩序的重要性在於：（1）法律⾏為是具有社會意義的⾏為。發起⼈設⽴公司並非單純指向⾃⼰的個⼈⾏為，⽽是指向社會的⾏為。發起⼈設⽴公司參與市場交易，能夠從⼀定程度上產⽣社會效果，促進經濟發展。（2）法律適⽤反映價值評判。發起⼈法律責任規範之適⽤，不僅僅是規則邏輯的推導結論，規則背後是⽴法者與司法者的價值判斷，從⽽構建起⼈與⼈之間的權利義務關係。（3）法律規則蘊含時代精神。對設⽴中公司發起⼈契約⾏為的法律規則與責任，本⽂主要分析〈公司法解釋三〉以及〈民法典〉相關條款。其中，〈公司法解釋三〉以⿎勵投資興業，維護交易安全為⼰任，⽽〈民法典〉採⽤民商合⼀的⽴法體例，從現⾏商事單⾏法中提煉、制定相應規則，順應當前時代對创业營商環境的需求。 （㆔）、突破傳統限制 ⾸先，國際商法規則具有趨同性。由於歷史的原因，我國全⾯、系統的公司法⽴法⼯作於 1993年完成，發起⼈法律制度隨之不斷完善，至⽬前〈公司法〉第六次修正，法律正逐步賦予發起⼈更多的權利，以⿎勵發起⼈創辦公司的積極性。在調整商事⾏為時，商法國際化的確對我國現有商事規則提出了挑戰，尤其是國內法和國際規則如何嘗試銜接、融合，並突破經濟、⽂化衝突以進⾏相應的學理解釋。 其次，法律規則研究與法社會學理論結合具有可能性。部⾨法通常以法律概念、秩序、以及規範體係化研究為主要範疇，多數研究仍然以經驗分析、邏輯推導⾒長。「社科法學的存在恰恰填補了法學與其他社會科學之間的知識空隙，成為連接法學與其他社會科學的中間地帶。」28因此，以「理論」為基礎并探索「規則」，嘗試跨學科融合為規範發起⼈責任的社會邏輯之⼀。 27 Tamanaha Brian Z., A General Jurisprudence of Law and Society. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001), 1. 28 侯猛，〈社科法學的傳統與挑戰〉，《法商研究》，第 5期（武漢：2014.09)，78。
如何規範設立中公司發起人契約責任？—基於部門法與法社會學的分析視角 43 從結構與系統關聯的角度探討法律的預期功能及具體規則，強調了⼆者對發起⼈契約責任的重要性—「期望與規則的關係因責任變得重要。」40主要基於兩⽅⾯原因的探索。⾸先，法社會學注重「社會結構」，以評價特定社會關係、關係中⼈及其⾏為。⽽在⼀個相對比較穩定的社會網絡結構中，「角⾊認同」被視為身份理論中具有聯結特定社會「結構要素」與「個體⾃我」的功能。身份理論傳承了經典符號互動論思想，公司發起⼈的角⾊認同之所以能從⼀定程度上激發起⼈的⾃覺意識，是「⾃我」的「角⾊認同」在社會關係與社會⾏為之間搭建起了橋樑作⽤，發起⼈社會角⾊促使其履⾏具有法律意義的社會⾏為。其次，「角⾊選擇的⽬的是實現角⾊期待」，41並且受認同承諾的影響，⽽認同承諾被視為是社會網絡的聯結。發起⼈之間、發起⼈與債權⼈、與成⽴後的公司以及社會，同樣受發起⼈認同承諾的影響。認同承諾既能夠促使發起⼈致⼒於他/她想成為的角⾊，同時，也成為設⽴中公司的社會網絡之基礎。 身份理論構建了認同與⾏動之間的動態關係，角⾊認同的過程能夠解釋角⾊⾏動。「標準、輸入、比較以及輸出構成個⼈與環境之間互動的體系，在該過程中，個⼈通常會將接受到評價與標準進⾏比較，進⽽選擇（輸出）更具有意義的⾏為。」42依據〈公司法解釋三〉和〈民法典〉，發起⼈的責任承擔並不因為公司發起成功或者失敗，⽽予以免除或者加強發起⼈責任，⽽是由具體的法律規範提供⼀套縝密的標準與預測。這與身份理論對於社會、⼈和⾏動的評價具有⼀致性。⾸先，法律規則的意義在於提供認同標準，為在特定社會關係中⼈們的⾏動提供⾏為參照的範式。〈公司法解釋三〉和〈民法典〉規範了發起⼈契約⾏為的權利、義務以及相應法律後果，對法律規範的理解，能夠促使發起⼈對角⾊的認同，包括何時承擔全部或者連帶責任。其次，身份理論認為個⼈發起⼈的身份認知以及角⾊認同具有積極意義。「個⼈身份在互動中被反復驗證時，信賴、承諾、以及歸屬感等⼈際互動結 40 亓同惠，〈法社會學意義上的「期望」—源流、類型及其對中國法治的影響〉，《政法論壇》，第 6期（北京：2019.11），101。 41 Stryker Sheldon, “From Mead to a Structural Symbolic Interactionism and Beyond,” Annual Review Sociology. 34.1 (California: 2008.08): 20. 42 Burke Peter J., “Identity Processes and Social Stress,” American Sociological Review 56.6 (California:1991.12): 837.
張倩孺 44 果隨之產⽣。」43再次，身份理論僅能夠實現對公司設⽴階段發起⼈社會⾏為的初步解釋，作為從認同到⾏動的理論預測體系，該理論對於解釋法律規範仍然具有⼀定的局限性。 五、結語 公司設⽴過程中的契約糾紛，不僅涉及發起⼈之間的權益衝突，還可能產⽣發起⼈與設⽴中公司、債權⼈之間的利益瓜葛。明晰發起⼈契約責任有助於平衡發起⼈、公司以及債權⼈的合法權益，並對確⽴安全交易的商法理念具有積極的促進意義。對於發起⼈在公司設⽴階段的契約責任研究，存在部⾨法與法社會學的內外互動機制。就內部⽽⾔，〈公司法解釋三〉以及〈民法典〉已構成正式規則的框架︔外部視角則以「身份」理論為基礎，儘管非基於國家強制⼒，其以社會規範的形式為發起⼈的⾏為提供指引。由此，法律規則與社會規範協同作⽤。關注發起⼈在公司設⽴階段的契約責任，既應強調法律權威的約束效⼒，還需重視從「認同」到「⾏動」的動態關係，以實現對社會、⼈及⾏動評價的⼀致性，從⽽滿⾜發起⼈契約責任的社會預期以及維護商業社會良好秩序。 43 Burke Peter J. and Stets Jan E., “Trust and Commitment through Self-Verification.” Social Psychology Quarterly 62. 4 (California:1999.12): 351.
張倩孺 46 （北京：2021.11），1405-1425。 [14] 尼克拉斯·盧曼著、賓凱、趙春燕譯，《法社會學》，上海：上海⼈民出版社，2013。 [15] 侯猛，〈社科法學的傳統與挑戰〉，《法商研究》，第5期（武漢：2014.09），74-80。 [16] 泮偉江，〈功能分化理論視野下法律的⾃主性〉，《荊楚法學》，第3期（蘭州：2022.05），73-89。 [17] 郭星華，《法社會學教程》，北京：中國⼈民⼤學出版社，2015。 [18] 劉濤，〈冗餘和遵循先例：系統論的考察及啟⽰〉，《交⼤法學》，第2期（上海：2017.06），78-90。 [19] 傅穹，曹理，〈超越「名義主義」的先合同統⼀責任規制〉，《當代法學》，第6期（長春：2011.11），63-70。 [20] 許中緣，〈論贊助者對公司設⽴中債務的承擔〉，《法學》，第12期（上海：2021.12），120-134。 [21] 亓同惠，〈法社會學意義上的「期望」—源流、類型及其對中國法治的影響〉，《政法論壇》，第6期（北京：2019.11），100-114。 ㆓、西文著作 [1] Brian Z., Tamanaha. A General Jurisprudence of Law and Society. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001. [2] Malcolm, Lloyd, “The Principles of the Law Relating to Corporate Liability for Acts of Promoters.” The American Law Register and Review 45.9 (Pennsylvania:1897.09): 545-570. [3] Manfred W., Ehrich and Bunzl Lucille C., “Promoters’ Contracts.” Yale Law Journal 38.8 (Connecticut:1929.06): 1011-1046. [4] Peter J., Burke, “Identity Processes and Social Stress.” American Sociological Review 56.6 (California:1991.12): 836-849. [5] Peter J., Burke, and Jan E. Stets, “Trust and Commitment through Self-Verification.” Social Psychology Quarterly 62. 4 (California:1999.12): 347–366.
如何規範設立中公司發起人契約責任？—基於部門法與法社會學的分析視角 47 [6] Sheldon, Stryker, “Identity Theory and Personality Theory: Mutual Relevance.” Journal of Personality 75.6 (Connecticut:2007.12): 1083-1102. [7] Sheldon, Stryker, “From Mead to a Structural Symbolic Interactionism and Beyond.” Annual Review Sociology 34.1 (California: 2008.08): 15-31. [8] Sheldon, Stryker and Burke Peter J., “The Past, Present, and Future of an Identity Theory.” Social psychology quarterly 63.4 (California: 2000.12): 284-297. [9] Sheldon, Stryker and Serpe Richard T., “Commitment, Identity Salience, and Role Behavior: Theory and Research Example.” in Personality, Roles, and Social Behavior. eds. William Ickes and Eric S. Knowles, 199-218. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1982. ㆔、電子書或網絡㈾源 [1] 中華⼈民共和國統計局，「中國統計年鑒-2021」，中華⼈民共和國統計局官網，http://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/2021/indexch.htm，瀏覽⽇期為2022年4⽉15⽇。 [2] 中華⼈民共和國最⾼⼈民法院，「⾼級檢索」，中國裁判⽂書網，https://wenshu.court.gov.cn/website/wenshu/181217BMTKHNT2W0/index.html?pageId=8a994cd3134e9ec5d3d26b623ac736ea&s16=%E6%B0%91%E4%BA%8B%E6%A1%88%E7%94%B1&s11=9000&s1=%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E5%8F%91%E8%B5%B7%E4%BA%BA&s4=4&s8=03&cprqStart=2021-01-01&cprqEnd=2021-12-31，瀏覽⽇期為2022年4⽉15⽇。 [3] The National Archives. “The Companies Act 2006.” Legislation Gov UK. Accessed April 6, 2022. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/46/contents. [4] 《最⾼⼈民法院關於適⽤〈中華⼈民共和國公司法〉若⼲問題的規定（三）》，最⾼⼈民法院官網，https://www.court.gov.cn/fabu-xiangqing-2178.html，瀏覽⽇期為2022年3⽉2⽇。 [5] 〈中華⼈民共和國民法典〉，中華⼈民共和國最⾼⼈民法院公報（法律法規），http://gongbao.court.gov.cn/Details/51eb6750b8361f79be8f90d09bc202.html，瀏覽⽇期為2022年3⽉2⽇。
孫鴻雁，余兆聰，洪芳 50 Research on the Effects of Tax incentives on Discretionary R&D Investment, Corporate Tax Avoidance and Firm Risks Sun, Hongyan; U, Sio Chong; Hong, Fang1 (1. Assistant Professor, Faculty of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Macau University of Science and Technology) Abstract: To promote economic transition and development, tax cut and fee reduction are essential policies implemented by State Council and regional governments. Consequently, the effects of such tax incentives are worth of being explored. Based on a sample of listed A-share firms from 2010 to 2019 in China, we investigate how the R&D expenses additional deduction policy plays a role in R&D manipulation and then the related economic consequences. It is found that the professionality and complexity of R&D investment may facilitate R&D manipulations and the enforcement of tax authorities can restrain it in turn. Meanwhile, R&D manipulations can be used to mask manager’s opportunistic and self-dealing incentives and then achieve high level of corporate tax avoidance which will increase tax and operation risks. Besides, we also provide several suggestions on implementations of R&D expenses additional deduction to policy makers. Keywords: R&D Tax Incentives; Discretionary R&D Investment; Tax Avoidance; Tax Risk; Operation Risk
研發激勵與操縱、公司避稅及風險問題研究 51 一、引言 積極實施减稅降費是黨中央、國務院應對當前經濟下⾏、助⼒實體經濟轉型升級、推進供給側結構性改⾰的重⼤舉措，對减輕企業負擔、激發微觀主體活⼒、提振市場信⼼具有重⼤意義。其中，研發費⽤的加計扣除是减稅降費的重要措施之⼀，通過不斷擴⼤研發費⽤加計扣除的範圍、提⾼扣除比例等⼿段持續地爲企業减稅，旨在促進企業的創新研究，最終實現經濟的⾼質量轉型。因此，與該項减稅激勵政策相關的經濟後果問題，吸引了很多學者展開研究。 很多研究發現，研發加計扣除政策的實施在增加企業創新效率、提⾼公司績效、促進實體經濟發展等⽅⾯均起到了積極作⽤。1但是，也有學者提出，研發减稅激勵政策的實際效果可能與政策制定者的初衷不同，企業可能會通過研發操縱獲得稅收優惠和政府補助，最終導致研發績效的下降。2另外，公司管理層會也可能會利⽤研發活動和研發費⽤認定的複雜性，通過調整 R&D⽀出和分類，進⾏投機主義⾏爲，操控公司經營業績。3可⾒，研發費⽤加計扣除政策對企業的實際影響是⼀個值得深入思考和探究的問題。因此，本⽂以研發費⽤加計扣除政策的發展變遷爲研究背景，圍繞减稅激勵是否給公司帶來了更多的研發操縱和避稅⾏爲、對公司的稅務風險及經營風險産⽣何種影響等⼀系列問題進⾏探討。 本⽂以 2010-2019年我國 A股上市公司爲樣本，主要研究發現如下：⾸先，研究發現 2013年後，伴隨著我國的研發費⽤加計扣除範圍漸次擴⼤且核算申報程序不 1 賀康，王運陳，張立光，〈稅收優惠、創新産出與創新效率—基於研發費用加計扣除政策的實證檢驗〉，《華東經濟管理》， 第 1 期（2020），37-48；王璽，劉萌，〈研發費用加計扣除政策對企業績效的影響研究—基於我國上市公司的實證分析〉，《財政研究》，第 11期（2020），101-114；王曉亮，梁丹陽，〈减稅降費與製造業企業「脫實向虛」—基於研發費用加計扣除政策的准自然實驗〉，《產業評論》，第 5期（2022），88-105。 2 楊國超，劉靜，廉鵬，芮萌，〈减稅激勵、研發操縱與研發績效〉，《經濟研究》，第 8 期（2017），110-124。 3 胡元木，劉佩，紀端，〈技術獨立董事能有效抑制真實盈餘管理嗎？—基於可操控 R&D費用視角〉，《會計研究》， 第 3期（2016），29-35；Laplante. K., Skaife, A., Swenson, A., Wangerin, D. Limits of tax regulation: Evidence from strategic R&D classification and the R&D tax credit. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 38.2 (2019): 89-105; Roychowdhury, S. Earnings management through real activities manipulation. Journal of Accounting and Economics 42.3 (2006): 335-370.
孫鴻雁，余兆聰，洪芳 52 斷簡化，4企業的研發操縱⾏爲顯著增加，但稅收徵管⼒度的加强會對其起到明顯的抑制作⽤︔其次，企業的避稅程度與研發操縱呈現正相關關係。這說明公司管理層可以利⽤研發費⽤認定的複雜性操控研發⽀出，實現更⾼的避稅⽔平。第三，研發操縱⾏爲會加⼤公司未來的稅務風險（有效稅率的波動性）和經營風險（市場回報率的波動性），不利於公司的長期穩定發展。最後，本⽂的全部研究假設均在穩健性檢驗中得到⽀持。 本⽂的理論和實踐貢獻體現在以下幾個⽅⾯：第⼀，本⽂爲研發减稅激勵政策的實施效果提供了更加豐富的微觀證據。現有研究⼤多集中於減稅激勵政策的積極影響，⽽本⽂則提供了相反的經驗證據，即研究减稅激勵⼀⽅⾯會刺激企業增加研發投入，但另⼀⽅⾯也會成爲企業避稅的⼿段，從⽽使企業風險增⼤。5因此，本⽂研究成果填補了相關研究領域的空⽩。此外，本⽂還爲如何加⼤政府部⾨的監察⼒度、保障國家减稅政策的有效實施提出了⼀些建議︔第⼆，本⽂拓展了關於公司避稅影響因素與機制的研究。現有的微觀稅務問題研究主要集中於公司特徵（比如公司規模、資本結構、業績⽔平等）及公司治理機制對公司避稅策略的影響。6本⽂則在此基礎上，從研發操縱這⼀新穎的視角研究避稅⾏爲，具有⼀定的現實指導意義。第三，本⽂拓展了關於公司稅務風險的研究。先前的稅務會計研究主要關注於不同因素對公司避稅程度的影響，⽽著名學者 Maydew則呼籲應更多考慮跟公司納稅⾏爲有關的不確定性及風險問題。7近些年來，國外涌現了許多關於稅務風險的研究成果，⽽國內的相關研究較少。8我們的研究結果填補了這⽅⾯的空⽩。第四，爲研發 4 研發費用加計扣除的政策沿革及發展階段詳見國家稅務總局官網：http://www.chinatax.gov.cn/ n810219/n810744/n3213637/index. html。 5 賀康，王運陳，張立光，〈稅收優惠、創新産出與創新效率—基於研發費用加計扣除政策的實證檢驗〉，《華東經濟管理》，第 1期（2020），37-48；王璽，劉萌，〈研發費用加計扣除政策對企業績效的影響研究—基於我國上市公司的實證分析〉，《財政研究》，第 11期（2020），101-114；王曉亮，梁丹陽，〈减稅降費與製造業企業「脫實向虛」—基於研發費用加計扣除政策的准自然實驗〉，《產業評論》，第 5期（2022），88-105。 6 Hanlon M., Heitzman, S. “A Review of Tax Research,” Journal of Accounting and Economics 50.2 (2010): 127-178. 7 Maydew, E. “Empirical Tax Research in Accounting: A Discussion,” Journal of Accounting and Economics 31.3 (2001): 389-403. 8 Gallemore, J., E. Labro. “The importance of the internal information environment for tax avoidance,” Journal of Accounting and Economics, 60.1 (2015): 149-167; Graham, J., M. Hanlon, Shevlin, T., Shroff,
研發激勵與操縱、公司避稅及風險問題研究 53 操縱變量的衡量⽅法提供了補充性的實證證據。研發操縱的內涵很廣泛，因此相關變量的可靠計量存在很⼤困難。Laplante et al.提出的研發操縱變量（DisRD）的計算⽅法是基於美國上市公司的研究，9本⽂提供了基於我國 A 股上市公司數據的實證檢驗結果，爲該變量計量的有效性和穩健性提供了證據。 本⽂其餘部分的內容安排如下：第⼆部分是研究背景概述︔第三部分是研究假設︔第四部分是實證研究設計︔第五部分是實證結果分析︔第六部分是穩健性檢驗︔第七部分是研究結論與政策建議。 二、研究背景概述 (㆒)、研發費用加計扣除政策的初級發展階段（1996-2012） 1. 研發費用加計扣除政策的誕生 爲⿎勵企業加⼤研發投入，有效促進研發創新活動，我國於 1996 年開始實施企業研發費⽤加計扣除政策。財政部和國家稅務總局聯合下發了《財政部 國家稅務總局關於促進企業技術進步有關財務稅收問題的通知》（財⼯字〔1996〕41號），⾸次明確國有、集體⼯業企業研究開發新産品、新技術、新⼯藝所發⽣的各項費⽤，增長幅度在 10%以上的，可再按實際發⽣額的 50%抵扣應稅所得額。隨後，《國家稅務總局關於促進企業技術進步有關稅收問題的補充通知》（國稅發〔1996〕152號）對相關政策執⾏⼜徑進⾏了細化。 N. “Incentives for Tax Planning and Avoidance: Evidence from the Field,” The Accounting Review 89.3 (2014) :991-1023. 9 Laplante. K., Skaife, A., Swenson, A., Wangerin, D. “Limits of Tax Regulation: Evidence from Strategic R&D Classification and the R&D Tax Credit,” Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 38.2 (2019): 89-105.
孫鴻雁，余兆聰，洪芳 56 範圍和比例與之前相比有顯著的擴⼤和提⾼，因此，本⽂以此為研究切入點，深入探索研發激勵政策對企業的研發操縱、避稅及風險等⼀系列問題的影響。 三、論分析與研究假設 (㆒)、研發減稅激勵政策與研發操縱 國內外許多研究成果都發現，公司管理層會利⽤研發投資實現對經營業績的操縱。比如，Dechow和 Sloan發現，公司總裁會通過操縱研發費⽤進⾏盈餘管理，尤其在任職的最後⼀年，從⽽獲取更好的業績評價︔10 Graham et al.對美國 401爲⾼管進⾏了問卷調查，其中 80%以上選擇通過削减研發費⽤、55.3%的⾼管通過延期新研發項⽬來實現盈餘管理的⽬標。11在我國，楊國超等發現，公司會利⽤研發操縱，達到⾼新技術企業的認定標準，以獲得稅收優惠和政府補貼。12另外，許多上市公司的⾼管也同樣通過調整研發費⽤避免虧損和平滑收益，13同時也可以美化財務指標，擴⼤融資渠道。14由此可⾒，公司的研發活動具有很强的專業性，研發活動的認定和研發費⽤的準確歸集存在很多困難和邊界模糊的地帶，公司管理層會利⽤研發費⽤的操縱進⾏利⼰⾏為，從⽽使研發减稅激勵政策的實際效果可能與政策制定者的初衷不同。 10 Dechow, P.M., Sloan, R.G. “Executive Incentives and the Horizon Problem: An Empirical Investigation,” Journal of Accounting and Economics 14.1 (1991): 51-89. 11 Graham, J. R., Harvey, C. R., Rajgopal, S. “The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting,” Journal of Accounting and Economics 40.1 (2005): 3-73. 12 楊國超，劉靜，廉鵬，芮萌，〈减稅激勵、研發操縱與研發績效〉，《經濟研究》，第 8 期（2017），110-124。 13 許罡，朱衛東，〈管理當局、研發支出資本化選擇與盈餘管理動機—基於新無形資産準則研究階段劃分的實證研究〉, 《科學學與科學技術管理》，第 9期（2010），39-43；肖海蓮，周美華，〈R&D支出與盈餘管理—基於 R&D會計政策變更的經驗證據〉，《證券市場導報》，第 10期（2012），48-54；李莉，曲曉輝，肖虹，〈R&D 支出資本化：真實信號傳遞或盈餘管理〉，《審計與經濟研究》，第 1期（2013），60-69。 14 王艶，馮延超，梁萊歆，〈高科技企業 R&D 支出資本化的動機研究〉，《財經研究》，第 4期（2011），103-111；和紅偉，〈管理者研發支出資本化選擇與盈餘管理動機研究〉，《山西高等學校社會科學學報》，第 4期（2014），39-41。
研發激勵與操縱、公司避稅及風險問題研究 57 基於以上研究，本⽂認為，我國⾃ 2013 年以來，研發費⽤加計扣除範圍漸次擴⼤且核算申報不斷簡化，雖然在⼀定程度上會增加企業創新研發的動⼒，但同時也會給管理層提供進⾏上述⾃利⾏為機會，因此提出： H1a：研發激勵政策的放寬（2013年後）會顯著增加企業研發操縱行爲。 同時，如果企業所在地區的稅收徵管⼒度較强，研發操縱的成本則會上升，進⽽削弱企業的研發操縱動機，減少研發操縱⾏為的發⽣。15基於以上分析，本⽂提出： H1b：與處於稅收徵管力度較强地區的企業相比，處於稅收徵管力度較弱的企業在研發激勵政策放寬後會更多地增加研發操縱行爲。 （㆓）、研發操縱與公司避稅行為的關係 Hanlon 和 Heitzman 在其稅務會計研究綜述中提到，稅收是企業的重要成本，是管理層在經營和經濟决策過程中考慮的重要因素之⼀。16但考慮到公司所有者跟管理層之間的委托代理衝突，公司避稅⾏爲有可能成爲管理層投機、利⼰和資源侵占（managerial opportunism, self-interest pursuit and resource diversion）的⼿段或掩飾，損害股東利益。例如，Kim, Li和 Zhang的研究發現，公司避稅會增加未來股價暴跌的風險（stock price crash risk）。17這是因爲在投資者眼中，避稅的實現需要構建⼀些複雜的公司結構或交易類型，管理層會利⽤這些機會進⾏更多的利⼰⾏爲，⽽非使股東的利益最⼤化。同樣，Desai和 Dharmapala也發現，公司的避稅⾏爲與公司價值之間並沒有正相關關係。18 如前所述，近些年來，我國逐漸放寬了研發加計扣除的範圍和比例，這爲企業 15 De Simone, L., Bridget, S., & Brian, W. “How tax enforcement disparately affects domestic corporations around the world.” Working Paper. 2018; Basri, M. C., Felix, M., Hanna, R.,Olken, B. A. “Tax administration vs. tax rates: Evidence from corporate taxation in Indonesia.” American Economic Review 111.12 (2021), 3827-3871. 16 Hanlon M., Heitzman, S. “A review of tax research,” Journal of Accounting and Economics 50.2 (2010): 127-178. 17 Kim. J., Y. Li, Zhang, Li, “Corporate tax avoidance and stock price crash risk: Firm-level analysis.” Journal of Financial Economics 100.3 (2011): 639-662. 18 Desai, M., Dharmapala, D. “Corporate tax avoidance and firm value.” Review of Economics and Statistics 91.3 (2009): 537-546.
孫鴻雁，余兆聰，洪芳 58 的研發操縱⾏爲提供了可趁之機。在關於研發費⽤加計扣除的稅務審核和稽查中，研發費⽤中研發⼈員費⽤和研發活動直接消耗的材料已成爲最⼤的風險點，由於這兩個項⽬的準確認定有很⼤困難，因此成爲虛構和操控研發數據的主要來源。在實踐中，稅務部⾨經常會發現有的企業⼀年投入的材料費和燃料動⼒費動輒就百萬，甚至千萬，有悖常理。19Laplante et al.也提到，據美國國家稅務局（IRS）的統計，在公司申報抵扣的研發費⽤中，近 70%是研發⼈員⼯資費⽤，許多公司研發投入的增加僅是爲了獲取相關的優惠政策，减少稅⾦⽀付。20 基於以上分析，本⽂認爲由於在研發活動的認定、研發費⽤的歸集⽅⾯存在很多模糊地帶，公司管理層可通過對研發投資的操控進⾏利⼰或投機主義⾏爲，利⽤研發費⽤加計扣除的稅收優惠政策，達到避稅的⽬的，由此提出第⼆個研究假設： H2：公司的研發操縱行爲與公司避稅程度顯著正相關。 （㆔）、研發操縱對公司未來風險的影響 企業稅收籌劃⼯作的合理安排，可以有效降低經營成本。從長期來看，如果可以將較低的有效稅率⽔平（Effective Tax Rate, ETR）較爲穩定地維持下去，則更有利於企業利益和財富的提升。著名學者 Maydew也呼籲應更多考慮跟公司納稅⾏爲有關的不確定性及風險問題。21因此，越來越多的學者開始關注與公司避稅相關的稅務風險問題。22Gallemore和 Labro表明，公司良好的內部信息系統，有利於部⾨間信息的傳遞和避稅策略的事前安排，可降低公司的稅務風險。23Guenther et al.發現，公司避稅所帶來的稅務風險會增加公司的整體風險。24 19 奚東升（江蘇省常州市高新區國稅局），對我局研發費用加計扣除稅務管理現狀的幾點思考。 20 Laplante. K., Skaife, A., Swenson, A., Wangerin, D. “Limits of Tax Regulation: Evidence from Strategic R&D Classification and the R&D Tax Credit,” Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 38.2 (2019): 89-105. 21 Maydew, E. “Empirical Tax Research in Accounting: A Discussion,” Journal of Accounting and Economics 31.3 (2001): 389-403. 22 稅務風險（tax risk），根據 Gallemore和 Labro（2015）的定義，是指有效稅率的波動性（volatility of effective tax rate）。 23 Gallemore, J., E. Labro. “The Importance of the iInternal Information Environment for Tax Avoidance.” Journal of Accounting and Economics 60.1 (2015): 149-167. 24 Guenther, D.A., Matsunaga, S. R., Williams, B.M. “Is Tax Avoidance Related to Firm Risk?,” The
研發激勵與操縱、公司避稅及風險問題研究 59 在實踐中，企業是否能够長期保持較低的有效稅率，其主要風險來⾃於稅務部⾨的稽查。很多避稅的策略，處於⼀種相對模糊的「灰⾊地帶」，如果不能向稅務部⾨合理解釋，將有可能被認定爲偷稅漏稅，⾯臨處罰甚至刑罰。Rego和Wilson(2012)認爲缺乏客觀事實和資料⽀持的避稅計劃，是企業的重⼤風險。25因此，當企業利⽤研發操縱進⾏避稅時，如果不能提供充分⽽清晰的有關研發活動的認定、起⽌時間以及研發⽀出明細資料，則不能得到稅務機關的加計扣除認定，導致避稅安排的失敗。因此，我們認為： H3a：研發操縱會增大公司的稅務風險。 同時，公司的研發操縱是⼀種機會主義⾏爲，必將帶來不利的經濟後果。公司通過會計科⽬調整、虛假列⽀研發⽀出甚至購置不必要的研發設備等⾏爲虛增研發投入，僅僅是爲了創新⽽創新，則難以提升企業實際的科技創新⽔平和理想的研發績效。26在投資者眼中，企業的研發投入是⼀種具有風險性的投資⾏爲，持續的研發操縱很難得到良好的研發績效的⽀撑，這將帶來股價和股東回報的波動，進⽽增加公司的整體經營風險。27據此，我們提出以下假設： H3b：研發操縱會增大公司整體經營風險。 四、實證研究設計 （㆒）、樣本選擇及數據來源 本⽂以 2010-2019年我國 A股上市公司爲初始樣本，並按以下程序篩選：⼀、剔除所有數據缺失的樣本︔⼆、剔除所有⾦融類上市公司︔三、剔除 R&D 投入爲 Accounting Review 92.1 (2017): 115–136. 25 Rego, S., R. Wilson, “Equity Risk Incentives and Corporate Tax Aggressiveness,” Journal of Accounting Research 50.3 (2012): 775-810. 26 楊國超，劉靜，廉鵬，芮萌，〈减稅激勵、研發操縱與研發績效〉，《經濟研究》，第 8 期（2017），110-124；安同良，周紹東，皮建才，〈R&D補貼對中國企業自主創新的激勵效應〉，《經濟研究》，第 10期（2009），87-98/120。 27 Guenther, D.A., Matsunaga, S. R., Williams, B.M. “Is Tax Avoidance Related to Firm Risk?,” The Accounting Review 92.1 (2017): 115–136.
孫鴻雁，余兆聰，洪芳 76 司的實證分析〉，《財政研究》，（2020.11），101-114。 [13] 王艶，馮延超，梁萊歆，〈⾼科技企業 R&D⽀出資本化的動機研究〉，《財經研究》，（2011.04），103-111。 ㆓、英文期刊論文 [1] Basri, M. C., Felix, M., Hanna, R., & Olken, B. A. “Tax Administration vs. Tax Rates: Evidence from Corporate Taxation in Indonesia.” American Economic Review, 111.12 (2021): 3827-3871. [2] De Simone, L., Bridget, S., & Brian, W. “How Tax Enforcement Disparately Affects Domestic Corporations Around the World.” Working Paper. 2018. [3] Dechow,P.M. R.D. Sloan, and Sweeney. A., “Detecting earnings management.” The Accounting Review 70 (1996): 193-225. [4] Desai, M., Dharmapala, D., “Corporate Tax Avoidance and Firm Value.” Review of Economics and Statistics 91 (2009): 537-546. [5] Graham, J., M. Hanlon, Shevlin, T. & Shroff, N., “Incentives for Tax Planning and Avoidance: Evidence from the Field.” The Accounting Review 89 (2014): 991-1023. [6] Hanlon M., Heitzman, S., “A Review of Tax Research.” Journal of Accounting and Economics 50 (2010): 127-178. [7] Kim. J., Y. Li, & Zhang, Li., “Corporate Tax Avoidance and Stock Price Crash Risk: Firm-level Analysis.” Journal of Financial Economics 100 (2010): 639-662. [8] Laplante. K., Skaife, A., Swenson, A., & Wangerin, D., “Limits of Tax Regulation: Evidence from Strategic R&D Classification and the R&D Tax Credit.” Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 38 (2019): 89-105. [9] Roychowdhury, S., “Earnings Management through Real Activities Manipulation.” Journal of Accounting and Economics 42 (2006): 335-370.
研發激勵與操縱、公司避稅及風險問題研究 77 第㆒作者簡介 孫鴻雁，澳門科技大學商學院助理教授。研究領域為財務會計、審計、公司避稅、公司治理等。著有論文如下： 1. Sun H., C. Zhang, J. Zhang and X. Zhang, “How Does Mandatory IFRS Adoption Affect Tax Planning Decisions? Evidence from Tax Avoidance Distribution.” Accounting Forum, 2022 Accepted. (SSCI, ABS 3) 2. Sun H., C. Yuen, J. Zhang and X. Zhang, “Is Knowledge Powerful? Evidence from Financial Education and Earnings Quality.” Research in International Business and Finance 52(2020): 101179. (SSCI, ABS 2) 3. Zhang X., X. Liang and H. Sun, “Individualism-collectivism, Private Benefits of Control, and Earnings Management: A Cross-culture Comparison,” Journal of Business Ethics 114.4 (2013): 655-664. (SSCI, ABS 3, FT50). 通訊地址：澳門科技大學商學院 O949 通訊電郵：hysun@must.edu.mo 通訊電話：(853)88971920 第㆓作者簡介 余兆聰，澳門科技大學商學院助理教授。研究領域為金融風險管理、資產定價模型、公司治理、金融機構治理、旅遊及旅客等，著有論文如下： 1. U, S. C. and Y. C. So. “The Impacts of Financial and Non-financial Crises on Tourism: Evidence from Macao and Hong Kong.” Tourism Management Perspectives 33 (2020): 100628. (SSCI)” 2. Jacky So, Sio Chong U, D. Ding, and Lihong Liu. “An Efficient Fourier Expansion Method for Calculation of Value-at-Risk: Contributions of Extra-ordinary Risks.” International Journal of Financial Engineering 03 (2014): 1650006. 3. D. Ding & U, S.C. “Efficient Option Pricing Methods Based on Fourier Expansions.” Journal of Mathematical Research and Exposition 13.1 (2011):
孫鴻雁，余兆聰，洪芳 78 12-22. 通訊地址：澳門科技大學商學院 O961 通訊電郵：scu@must.edu.mo 通訊電話：(853)88972143 第㆔作者（通訊作者）簡介 洪芳，澳門科技大學酒店及旅遊管理學院助理教授。研究領域為酒店財務管理、旅遊經濟等。著有論文如下： 1. Guan, J., Tavitiyaman, P., Ren, L., Wang, P. & Hong, F. “Hospitality Students Taking Synchronous Online Classes: Are They Ready?.” Journal of Quality Assurance in Hospitality & Tourism, 2022. (DOI: 10.1080/1528008X.2021.2024779) 2. Chen L., Lin Y. J. & Hong F. “The Impact of Corporate Governance on the Stickiness of Executive Pay.” Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology 15.1 (2021): 39-46. 3. Zhu Y. N., Hong F. & Yang C. Y. “Inclusive leadership: review and direction for future research.” Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology 12.2 (2018): 21-27. 4. Lin Y. J., Shi X. Y. & Hong F.，〈商業銀行多元化資產配置戰略與銀行盈利能力—基於不同股權結構的討論〉，《新金融》，第 12期（2018），37-42。 5. Li X., Xu Y., Hong F. & Zeng Y. W. “A Justice Framework for Understanding Hospitality Employees’ Deviant Behavior.” Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology 11 (2017): 76-90. 6. Wang J., Hong F. & Peng B. “Impact of Macao exhibition Industry Influence on Economic Development in the Belt and Road Mode.” Journal of Residuals Science & Technology, 13.8 (2016) 通訊地址：澳門科技大學商學院 O328 通訊電郵：fhong@must.edu.mo 通訊電話：(853)88972912
張鹿瑤、田青、陳妤婕 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ 80 How Does Proactive Personality Affect Innovative Behavior? Zhang, Luyao1; Tian, Qing; Chen, Yujie （1. Doctoral student, School of Business, Macau University of Science and Technology） Abstract: Currently, the global economy is grappling with novel challenges that traditional business growth models cannot sufficiently address for sustainable development. Employees, as crucial participants in production and operational activities, are fundamental to fostering innovation within teams and organizations. Therefore, studying employee innovative behavior is imperative. Innovative behavior, essentially an active trait, is primarily motivated by a proactive personality. This study aims to investigate the factors that encourage proactive personality, thriving at work, and innovative behavior. Utilizing structural equation modeling, data from 456 employees were meticulously gathered and analyzed. Findings reveal that employees with a higher degree of proactive personality are more likely to demonstrate innovative behaviors. Notably, thriving at work mediates the relationship between proactive personality and innovative behaviors. Furthermore, the study indicates that an innovative climate amplifies the positive impact of a proactive personality on thriving at work. In simpler terms, a more robust innovation climate bolsters the positive effects of a proactive personality. Lastly, the study discovered that an innovation climate positively affects the indirect influence of proactive personality on innovation behavior. When an organization has a stronger innovation climate, the mediating effect of individual thriving at work is enhanced. The paper concludes with a discussion on the theoretical and practical implications of these findings and offers directions for future research. Keywords: Proactive personality; Innovative behavior; Thriving at work; Innovation climate
主動性人格如何影響員工創新行為？ 81 一、引言 當前，全球經濟⾯臨新⼀輪挑戰，企業傳統的經濟增長模式難以⽀撐其長遠的發展，需要不斷進⾏創新，從⽽維持⾃身的長期競爭優勢。1⽽從本質上來看，企業員⼯作為企業⽣產經營活動的⾸要參與者，也是團隊創新與企業創新的最基礎保障與重要源泉。企業可以利⽤其員⼯的創意和創新產品來應對激烈的競爭。2因此，有必要參考國外已有研究成果，結合我國實際情況，對員⼯個體的創新⾏為進⾏研究，並通過相關數據對促進員⼯個體創新⾏為的內在激勵進⾏分析探討。 創新⾏為的複雜性決定了其可能會受多種因素的影響，學者們已經發掘領導風格、員⼯情感變化和⼯作環境等因素都會影響員⼯的創造⼒⽔平。3然⽽，創新⾏為作為⼀種完全⾃發的角⾊外⾏為，在很⼤程度上取決於員⼯的內在因素，⽽⼈格特質對於個體⾏為又有著根本性的影響。4以往許多關於創新⾏為的研究都是基於五⼤⼈格模型的探索，然⽽在預測⼯作場所中的創新⾏為時，五⼤⼈格模型就顯得 1 張聖利、馬川君，〈高管薪酬與企業創新績效: 綜述與展望〉，《中國鄉鎮企業會計》，第 2期（北京：2022），123-126；Tsai, Kuen-Hung, Ming-Hung Hsieh, and Erik Jan Hultink. “External technology acquisition and product innovativeness: The moderating roles of R&D investment and configurational context.” Journal of Engineering & Technology Management, 28.3 (2011): 184-200. 2 Shalley, Christina E., Jing Zhou, and Oldham. Greg R. “The effects of personal and contextual characteristics on creativity: Where should we go from here?.” Journal of Management, 30.6 (2004): 933-958。 3 Amabile, Teresa. M., Barsade, Sigal. G., Mueller, Jennifer. S., & Staw, Barry. M. “Affect and Creativity at Work.” Social Science Electronic Publishing, 50.3 (2005): 367-403; Zhang, Xiaomeng, and Kathryn M. Bartol. “Linking Empowering Leadership and Employee Creativity: The Influence of Psychological Empowerment, Intrinsic Motivation, and Creative Process Engagement.” Academy of Management Journal, 53.1 (2010): 107-128; Amabile, Teresa M., Conti, Regina., Coon, Lazenby, Jeffrey, & Herron, Michael. “Assessing the Work Environment for Creativity.” Academy of Management Journal, 39.5 (1996): 1154-1184; George, Jennifer M., and Jing Zhou. “Dual Tuning in a Supportive Context: Joint Contributions of Positive Mood, Negative Mood, and Supervisory Behaviors to Employee Creativity.” Academy of Management Journal, 50.3 (2007): 605-622. 4 張碧惠、蔡顯童，〈員工創新投入與創新績效之探討：以兩家台灣科技服務企業為例〉，《行銷評論》，第 17卷第 1期，（新北：2020) : 1-48；江辛、王永躍、溫巧巧，〈學習目標導向對員工創新行為的作用機制研究〉，《科研管理》，第 39卷第 10期。（北京：2018），100-07；仇瀘毅、張夢桃、王勔追、張生太，〈可干預的人格特質: 自我分化對員工創新的影響〉，《科研管理》，第 43卷第 2期，（北京：2022），202-208。
張鹿瑤、田青、陳妤婕 82 過於寬泛，應考慮其他的⼈格特質，例如主動性⼈格。也有證據⽀持主動⼈格與創造性⾏為之間的正向聯繫。5但從具體的內容來看，相關研究傾向於研究主動性⼈格對創新⾏為的直接作⽤，或者是將主動性⼈格作為⼀種調節變量進⾏分析。6詳細研究主動性⼈格通過何種內在機制影響創新⾏為的研究尚不多⾒，個體主動⼈格與創造性⾏為之間的具體影響機制仍需要被探索。7 本研究認為，創新⾏為是⼀種角⾊外的主動⾏為，很⼤程度上是需要主動性⼈格的驅動，⽽創新⾏為的產⽣⼀⽅⾯需要個體對創新有積極意願與活⼒，更要求其具備必要的能⼒，不斷學習了解新⽅法、新技術。因⽽，同時包含這種體驗的⼯作繁榮感就成為了主動性⼈格與創新⾏為之間重要的變量，⼯作繁榮感⽔平較⾼的個體都會在學習中積累相關知識，並保持對⼯作的熱情和活⼒。8這兩個條件也是促進創造性⾏為先決條件。也就是說，主動性⼈格激發了個體更為強烈的⼯作繁榮感，⽽旺盛的⼯作繁榮感又直接推動了創新⾏為的產⽣。因此，本研究選擇⼯作繁榮感作為主動性⼈格與創新⾏為之間的中介變量。 同時，具備主動性⼈格的個體也需要在⼀定的⽀持性環境中⼯作，否則其主動性會被消滅。本研究利⽤特質激活理論，認為⼈格特質轉化為⾏為的過程會受到環境氛圍的影響。當個體所處的組織情境特徵與其⾃身某項特徵相匹配時，這些組織情境就會將個體內部的相應特質所激活，並進⼀步刺激其展現出這些特質所應展現 5 Kim, Tae-Yeol, Alice HY Hon, and Deog-Ro Lee. “Proactive Personality and Employee Creativity: The Effects of Job Creativity Requirement and Supervisor Support for Creativity.” Creativity Research Journal, 22.1(2010):37-45. Kim, Tae-Yeol, Alice HY Hon, and J. Michael Crant. “Proactive Personality, Employee Creativity, and Newcomer Outcomes: A Longitudinal Study.” Journal of Business & Psychology, 24.1 (2009): 93-103. 6 張建衛、周潔、李海紅、宣星宇，〈軍工研發人員內部人身份感知對其離職意向及創新行為的作用機理：主動性人格與組織職業生涯管理的聯合效應〉，《科技進步與對策》，第 37 卷第 12 期，（武漢：2020），108-117。 7 李光紅、袁朋偉、董曉慶，〈主動性人格與創新行為：一個跨層次被調節的中介模型〉，《山東大學學報（哲學社會科學版）》，第 6期，（濟南：2017），94-102; Anderson, Neil, Kristina Potočnik, and Jing Zhou. “Innovation and Creativity in Organizations A State-of-the-Science Review, Prospective Commentary, and Guiding Framework.” Journal of Management, 40.5 (2014): 1297-1333. 8 Gretchen Spreitzer, Kathleen Sutcliffe, Jane Dutton, Scott Sonenshein, Adam M. Grant. “A Socially Embedded Model of Thriving at Work.” Organization Science, 16.5 (2005): 537-549; Carmeli, Abraham, and Gretchen M. Spreitzer. “Trust, Connectivity, and Thriving: Implications for Innovative Behaviors at Work.” Journal of Creative Behavior, 43.3 (2011): 169-191.
主動性人格如何影響員工創新行為？ 83 出的⾏為。9同為主動⼈格的情況下，有學者發現，在⽀持性社交環境中運作的個體往往會表現出更為主動的⾏為。鑒於創新氛圍是⼀種⽀持性的⼯作氛圍，該研究認為主動性⼈格對創新氛圍的感知可能會增加提⾼⼯作繁榮的機會。10特質激活理論認為，特質激活過程的關鍵在於有關於所關注特質的相關線索是否存在，也就是說，在本研究中，主動性⼈格對組織創新氛圍的感知可能會增加員⼯個體展開創新⾏為的機會。因此本研究提出創新氛圍作為組織層⾯的調節變量，進⼀步分析不同情境下對相關機制的影響。 二、理論基礎與研究假設 (㆒)、主動性㆟格和創新行為 創新⾏為是員⼯在團隊活動中產⽣的新的想法並能付諸⾏動和實施的⾏為。在組織內，創新⾏為是指創造和應⽤新想。11以往許多關於創新⾏為的研究都是基於五⼤⼈格模型的探索，哪種類型⼈格更有可能在⼯作場所進⾏創新⾏為。比如，有學者發現外向性和開放性⼈格與創新⾏為呈顯著正相關，12⽽開放性是唯⼀與創新⾏為相關的⼈格變量。然⽽，五⼤⼈格模型的意義範圍太⼤，不是專⾨針對⼯作領域⾏為因素的研究，還應考慮其他⼈格構建（如主動性⼈格），來研究決定⼯作場所創 9 Tett, Robert P., and Hal A. Guterman. “Situation Trait Relevance, Trait Expression, and Cross-Situational Consistency: Testing a Principle of Trait Activation.” Journal of Research in Personality, 34.4 (2000): 397-423. 10 Ambreen Sarwar, Muhammad Kashif Imran, Zafar-Uz-Zaman Anjum, Umer Zahid. “How innovative climate leads to project success: the moderating role of gender and work culture.” Innovation & Management Review, 17.4 (2020): 413-30; Williamson, Jeanine M., John W. Lounsbury, and Lee D. Han. “Key personality traits of engineers for innovation and technology development.” Journal of Engineering & Technology Management, 30.2 (2013): 157-168. 11 Scott, Susanne G., and Reginald A. Bruce. “Determinants of Innovative Behavior: A Path Model of Individual Innovation in the Workplace.” Academy of Management Journal, 37.3 (1994): 580-607; Crant, J Michael. “Proactive Behavior in Organizations.” Journal of Management 26.3 (2000): 435-462. 12 Williamson, Jeanine M., John W. Lounsbury, and Lee D. Han. “Key Personality Traits of Engineers for Innovation and Technology Development.” Journal of Engineering & Technology Management, 30.2 (2013): 157-168.
張鹿瑤、田青、陳妤婕 84 新⾏為的⼈格特徵。13 主動性別⼈格指的是個體改變外部環境的⼀種持續性傾向。14該定義強調主動性⼈格是⼀種穩定的傾向，並且會採取主動⾏為，也就是說具有主動性⼈格的⼈會通過主動性⾏為來塑造他們的環境。15關於⼈格特質對⼯作場所中⾏為的影響，已經有學者證明主動性⼈格在預測創新⾏為⽅⾯比五⼤⼈格特徵具有更顯著的效度。16因為，主動性個體相較於非主動性個體更具備以下突出特點：受環境約束較少，反⽽會通過重新選擇環境或是創造新的環境來幫助⾃身提升⼯作效率。17此外，主動性⼈格的個體也會傾向於積極參與建⽴社交網絡和更新他們的專業知識，這些⾏為都與創新呈正相關。13、18根據⽬標設定理論，具有積極個性的個體積極設定⽬標，然後努⼒實現這些⽬標，從⽽產⽣創新⾏為。⾃我決定理論認為，個體的動機來源於內外因的共同作⽤，但內因往往起決定性作⽤，基於活動本身能夠體驗到的⾃主、快樂和滿⾜等，更能促進個體創新。因⽽在創新的過程中，激發創新主體的內因是關鍵因素，加強員⼯的內在激勵，才能從根本上激發員⼯創新⾏為。20綜上所述，本研究認為⼈格特質對員⼯創新⾏為具有相當程度的影響⼒，若員⼯具有⾼⽔平的主動性⼈格，就說明其⼼態積極，會積極設定⽬標並傾向於採⽤主動的，創新的思維與辦法實現這些⽬標，這種主動的⼈格特質就激發了⾃身的創新⾏為。因此，提出： 13 Madrid, Hector. P., Patterson, Malcolm. G., Birdi, Kamal. S., Leiva, Pedro. I., & Kausel, Edgar. E. “The Role of Weekly High‐activated Positive Mood, Context, and Personality in Innovative Work Behavior: A Multilevel and Interactional Model.” Journal of Organizational Behavior, 35.2 (2014): 234-256; Porath, Christine, Gretchen Spreitzer, Christina Gibson, Flannery G. Garnett. “Thriving at work: Toward its Measurement, Construct Validation, and Theoretical Refinement.” Journal of Organizational Behavior, 33.2 (2012): 250-275. 14 Bateman, Thomas S., and J. Michael Crant. “The Proactive Component of Organizational Behavior: A Measure and Correlates.”Journal of Organizational Behavior, 14.2 (1993): 103-118. 15 Seibert, Scott E, J Michael Crant, Maria L Kraimer. “Proactive Personality and Career Success.” Journal of Applied Psychology, 84.3 (1999): 416-427. 16 Seibert, Scott E, Maria L Kraimer, J Michael Crant. “What Do Proactive People Do? A Longitudinal Model Linking Proactive Personality and Career Success.” Personnel Psychology, 54.4 (2010): 845-874; Crant, J. Michael. “The Proactive Personality Scale and Objective Job Performance Among Real Estate Agents.” Journal of Applied Psychology, 80.4 (1995): 532-537. 17 張振剛、余傳鵬、李雲健，〈主動性人格, 知識分享與員工創新行為關係研究〉，《管理評論》，第 28卷第 4期，（北京：2016），123-133。 18 Thompson, Jeffery A. “Proactive Personality and Job Performance: A Social Capital Perspective.” The Journal of applied psychology, 90.5 (2005): 1011-1017.
主動性人格如何影響員工創新行為？ 85 假設 1：主動性人格對創新行為有正向影響。 （㆓）、主動性㆟格和工作繁榮感 「⼯作繁榮感」是⼀種同時涉及活⼒和學習⼼理狀態。活⼒指的是具有⼯作繁榮感的個體以經歷的成長和具有動⼒，學習指的是其感到的不斷進步和變得更好。主動性⼈格，即傾向於影響周圍環境的⾏動傾向是形成⼯作繁榮的重要因素。因為主動性促使⼈們更加關注環境，積極學習，識別⾃我發展機會，並將⾃⼰置於可以體驗繁榮的情境中。19基於社會嵌入模型，員⼯的⼯作繁榮狀態與個體特質、⼯作資源、主動性⼯作⾏為等有關，⽽⼈格特質的差異影響了員⼯能否在⼯作中比其他⼈更容易成長和進步。主動性⼈格的個體更可能通過選擇、改變和賦予任務意義、探索增長機會以及改變社會資源來增強⼯作繁榮感。27、20此外，有研究已經證實，主動性⼈格的個體由於他們在⼯作環境中的主動⾏為，有更多機會增加優質的社會資源（例如，領導成員交流）。21主動性⼈格還可以看作是員⼯所擁有的⼀種資源，⽽⾃有資源的差異，也會使得員⼯⼯作繁榮感有所差異。綜上所述，具有⾼主動性⼈格的個體，能使得⾃⼰能夠在⼯作中展現出更多積極⾏為，例如學習與探索等⾏為，從⽽推動個體實現更⾼⽔平的⼯作繁榮感。22通過⽀持這些推論，提出：假設 2：主動性人格對工作繁榮感有正向影響。 19 Porath, Christine L., and T. S. Bateman. “Self-regulation: from goal orientation to job performance.” Journal of Applied Psychology, 91.1 (2006): 185-92; Seibert, Scott E, Maria L Kraimer, J Michael Crant. “What Do Proactive People Do? A Longitudinal Model Linking Proactive Personality and Career Success.” Personnel Psychology, 54.4 (2010): 845-874. 20 Parker, Sharon K, Sandra Ohly. “Designing motivating jobs: An expanded framework for linking work characteristics and motivation.” In Work motivation: Past, present, and future. EDS. R. Kanfer, G. Chen, & R. D. Pritchard. (Routledge/Taylor & Francis Group, 2008): 233-284. 21 Fuller Jr, Bryan, Laura E Marler. “Change driven by nature: A meta-analytic review of the proactive personality literature.” Journal of Vocational Behavior, 75.3 (2009): 329-345. 22 Spreitzer, Gretchen M, Christine Porath. “Self-determination as nutriment for thriving: Building an integrative model of human growth at work.” The Oxford handbook of work engagement, motivation, and self-determination theory, 90 (2014): 245-58.
張鹿瑤、田青、陳妤婕 86 （㆔）、工作繁榮感和創新行為 當員⼯繁榮時，他們的精⼒和活⼒體驗直接影響組織⾏為。17 當個⼈繁榮時，他們參與某項⾏為是因為享受它和個⼈的成就和認可。在⼯作中繁榮緊密的契合驅動個⼈參與創新⾏為的內在動機。18 ⼯作繁榮感⿎勵員⼯參與創新⾏為的原因可以從學習和活⼒兩個⽅⾯進⾏研究。17 ⾸先，學習能使個⼈獲得新的專業知識，從⽽促進了新思想的產⽣，增強了改變現狀的信⼼。在這⼀過程中，個體在⼯作中感覺到⾃⼰的學習體驗，實際上反映出個體對於所需處理和解決的問題的知識儲備和技術能⼒的獲取與提升，進⽽能夠提升個體在遇到需要創新的問題時，進⾏妥善處理的可能性。23其次，當在⼯作中體驗到有活⼒時，個⼈就會有更多的精⼒和動⼒去執⾏創新⾏為。24活⼒可以被視為內在動機⽔平的指標，並且已被證明是創新⾏為的重要先決條件。18 ⾼活⼒體驗的員⼯，在⾯對新的挑戰和問題時，將具有更多的能量、興趣和動機參與到需要額外付出努⼒的⼯作中。⽽這樣的能量和精⼒，對於創新性活動來說非常重要，也就是說員⼯的活⼒能夠增強其在⼯作中的創造⼒。 Fredrickson則從情緒角度出發，指出積極的情緒和情感對創造性思維有所幫助，能夠增強解決問題的認知能⼒或技能。25⼯作繁榮感作為⼀種積極的情緒有助於個⼈擴展他們的思想和⾏動範圍，建⽴⼼理和社會資源，並促進⾏為傾向。因此，提出：假設 3：工作繁榮感對創新行為有正向影響。 23 Campbell, Donald T. “Blind variation and selective retention in creative thought as in other knowledge processes.” Psychological Review, 67.6 (1960): 380. 24 Kark, Ronit, Abraham Carmeli. “Alive and creating: the mediating role of vitality and aliveness in the relationship between psychological safety and creative work involvement.” Journal of Organizational Behavior, 30.6 (2010): 785-804. 25 Fredrickson, Barbara L. “The role of positive emotions in positive psychology. The broaden-and-build theory of positive emotions.” The American psychologist. American Psychologist, 56.3 (2001): 218-226; Hirt, Edward R, Gary M Levine, Hugh E McDonald, R Jeffrey Melton, Leonard L Martin. “The Role of Mood in Quantitative and Qualitative Aspects of Performance: Single or Multiple Mechanisms?.” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 33.6 (1997): 602-29.
主動性人格如何影響員工創新行為？ 87 （㆕）、主動性㆟格、工作繁榮感與創新行為 整合假設 2 和假設 3，本研究認為⼯作繁榮感在主動性⼈格與創新⾏為中具有中介作⽤。從⾃我決定理論來看，當個體處在最佳狀態時，充滿了活⼒，學習能⼒也較強，能夠運⽤⾃身的才能處理⼯作，26才能夠激發出創新⾏為。主動性⼈格⽔平較⾼的個體通常更會利⽤資源對環境做出改變，23 具備較為突出的創新精神，具體表現在⼯作中傾向於以積極的⼼態學習新事物，並保持⼀種具有活⼒的狀態，以隨時把握機遇。⽽這種充滿活⼒並不斷學習的狀態又是⼯作繁榮感形成的兩⼤要素，27也正是在這種繁榮感的影響下，個體能夠學習⼀系列新知識與新技能並且充滿精⼒，使得員⼯具備了實施創新⾏為的動機、資源和能⼒。 根據上述描述，主動性⼈格對⼯作繁榮產⽣積極影響，⼯作繁榮又對創新⾏為有著正向作⽤，這樣的變量關係符合中介假設檢驗構建的前提。因此，基於上述分析，本研究提出中介假設如下：假設 4：工作繁榮感在主動性人格和創新行為之間發揮中介作用。 （㈤）、創新氛圍的調節作用 具有主動性⼈格的個體往往表現出使他們更有可能在⼯作中茁壯成長的⾏為，但這種⼈格特質的表現取決於周圍的⼯作環境。事實上，當⼯作環境不能為員⼯提供繁榮感的機會時，他們本身具有的⼯作繁榮感動⼒可能會減少。16 因此，主動性⼈格的影響還取決於⼯作的設計和結構。28在本研究中，引入創新氛圍作為調節變量進⾏研究，學術界研究創新氛圍主要從主觀與客觀兩種不同角度出發，本研究主要研究個體感知與⾏為，因此從主觀角度來定義創新氛圍，認為組織的創新氛圍是組織成員個體對組織是否⿎勵創新的主觀認知。29 26 Seibert, Scott E., J. Michael Crant, and Maria L. Kraimer. “Proactive personality and career success.” The Journal of applied psychology, 84.3 (1999): 416-427. 27 Jiang, Zhou. “Proactive Personality and Career Adaptability: The Role of Thriving at Work.” Journal of Vocational Behavior, 98 (2017): 85-97. 28 Pan, Jingzhou, Songbo Liu, Bin Ma, Zhiyao Qu. “How Does Proactive Personality Promote Creativity? A Multilevel Examination of the Interplay between Formal and Informal Leadership.” Journal of Occupational & Organizational Psychology, 91.4 (2018): 852-874. 29 Lin, Shin-Huei, Wan Chen Lu, Mei-Yen Chen, Lung Hung Chen. “Association between Proactive
張鹿瑤、田青、陳妤婕 88 ⾸先，特質激活理論表明，將⼈格特質轉化為⾏為受到環境氛圍的影響。在⼯作場所中這些氛圍包括⼯作或組織特徵，這些特徵可以阻礙或刺激⼀種⾏為的表現。30在積極主動⼈格的情況下，研究發現，主動性⼈格的個體在⽀持性的社會環境中⼯作時往往會表現出更加積極主動的⾏為。12 在⼀個創新氛圍濃厚的組織中，組織將會從資源、配套、⼈才等多⽅⾯為員⼯展開創新提供盡可能的⽀援，當主動性⼈格⽔平較⾼的員⼯希望作出積極主動的創新⾏為時，也就能夠獲得更多的外界⽀持，進⼀步激發其採取創新⾏為的動⼒。因此，提出：假設 5：創新氛圍正向調節主動性⼈格和創新⾏為的關係，當創新氛圍⽔平較⾼時，主動性⼈格對創新⾏為的正向作⽤更強，創新氛圍⽔平較低時，主動性⼈格對創新⾏為的正向作⽤減弱︔其次，主動性⼈格和在⼯作繁榮之間也存在潛在的調節變量。組織的創新氛圍作為⼀種⽀持性的環境，19 能在主觀上刺激個體的創新認知，又能在組織內部客觀上形成⼀種創新氛圍，8從⽽使得主動性⼈格在這樣的氛圍中主動學習更多創新知識，並在創新氛圍的不斷影響下保持這種活⼒，進⽽推動個體實現更⾼⽔平的⼯作繁榮感。42 因此，提出假設 6：創新氛圍正向調節主動性⼈格和⼯作繁榮感的關係，當創新氛圍⽔平較⾼時，主動性⼈格對⼯作繁榮感的正向作⽤更強，創新氛圍⽔平較低時，主動性⼈格對⼯作繁榮感的正向作⽤減弱。 前⽂的中介假設提出⼯作繁榮感在主動性⼈格和創新⾏為之間發揮中介作⽤，⽽創新氛圍在主動性⼈格與⼯作繁榮感之間起到調節作⽤。基於此，有理由認為創新氛圍會對⼯作繁榮感的中介作⽤產⽣⼀定影響，也就是說，存在有調節的中介作⽤。因此，以下假設： 假設 H7：主動性⼈格通過⼯作繁榮感影響創新⾏為的間接作⽤效果受到創新氛圍調節效果的影響，當創新氛圍⽔平較⾼時，主動性⼈格通過⼯作繁榮感影響創新⾏為的間接作⽤效果更強，創新氛圍⽔平較低時，主動性⼈格通過⼯作繁榮感影響創新⾏為的間接作⽤效果減弱。 Personality and Academic Self–efficacy.” Current Psychology, 33 (2014): 600-609. 30 Lievens, Filip, Christopher S Chasteen, Eric Anthony Day, Neil D Christiansen. “Large-scale Investigation of the Role of Trait Activation Theory for Understanding Assessment Center Convergent and Discriminant Validity.” Journal of Applied Psychology, 91.2 (2006): 247. 42 韓翼、魏文文，〈員工工作繁榮研究述評與展望〉，《外國經濟與管理》，第 35卷第 8期，（2013），46-53。
張鹿瑤、田青、陳妤婕 98 五、結語與建議 (㆒)、研究結論 本研究在理論結合實證的基礎上，研究了主動性⼈格是如何通過⼯作繁榮感影響創新⾏為的。研究結果顯⽰，主動性⼈格⽔平的⾼低影響了員⼯創新⾏為的呈現，主動性⼈格⽔平較⾼的員⼯往往展現出更多的創新⾏為，⽽⼯作繁榮感在主動性⼈格與創新⾏為之間起到中介作⽤。創新氛圍正向調節了主動性⼈格對⼯作繁榮感的正向影響關係，即創新氛圍越強，主動性⼈格對⼯作繁榮感的正向影響會進⼀步加強。最後，研究還發現創新氛圍正向調節了⼯作繁榮感在主動性⼈格與創新⾏為之間的中介作⽤。當組織具有較⾼⽔平的創新氛圍時，主動性⼈格通過⼯作繁榮感正向激發創新⾏為的作⽤越強。這也就促使現代企業尋找⽅法，以提升組織創新氛圍。 (㆓)、理論意義 創新已經成為國家經濟發展，產業更新升級，個體能⼒提升的⾸要動⼒。在針對個體層⾯的研究中，雖有涉及個性因素的研究，但有關於主動性⼈格這⼀特質的研究相對並不多⾒，39 相關內容仍有待豐富，本研究豐富了主動性⼈格特質與員⼯創新⾏為之間的關係研究。 並在此基礎上，將⼯作繁榮感引入主動性⼈格對創新⾏為的關係模型中，構建出了主動性⼈格、⼯作繁榮感與創新⾏為的機制模型，並通過實證數據驗證了這⼀作⽤機制。基於⼯作繁榮感的視角進⼀步解釋了主動性⼈格是如何推動員⼯創新⾏為的，提供了分析主動性個⼈與創新⾏為關係的⼀種視角。 另外，在特質激活理論的基礎上，考慮到了組織情景下對個體特質的影響，分析了創新氛圍在主動性⼈格與創新⾏為關係中所起到的作⽤，有助於更好地理解創新氛圍在以上兩者關係中所扮演的角⾊，從⽽更好地理解組織氛圍所起到的激發作⽤。對這⼀領域的相關研究進⾏了有益的補充。 39 Liu, Yanjun, Shiyong Xu, Bainan Zhang. “Thriving at work: how a paradox mindset influences innovative work behavior.” The Journal of Applied Behavioral Science 56, no 3 (2020): 347-66.
主動性人格如何影響員工創新行為？ 99 (㆔)、實踐意義 了解明晰在⼈⼒資源選拔時需要候選者具備何種⼈格特質，通過何種⽅式激勵員⼯創新，其內在機制為何，能夠為企業在⽇常管理中指明⽅向。能夠幫助企業通過管理⼿段整理好內部路徑，善⽤不同特質的員⼯，激發員⼯創新⾏為，為企業創新打造內在引擎。 本研究旨在於明晰主動性⼈格是在何種機制下促發創新⾏為的，並在怎樣的氛圍中可以令相關特質得到充分的發揮，這就為企業管理者的經營提供了新的思考角度，也是⼈⽂關懷的⼀種現實體現。不僅能夠使得員⼯⾃身有機會獲得更⾼的⼯作繁榮感，也能夠促進企業切實發展。相關研究結論對於企業在⼈員招聘階段的⼈格特質以及注重創新氛圍的塑造具有⼀定意義。 (㆕)、研究的局限與建議 儘管本研究做出了重要貢獻，但仍存在⼀些限制。⾸先，本研究所使⽤的樣本僅局限於粵港澳⼤灣區內地幾個城市的員⼯。因此，忽略了⽂化差異對於員⼯創造⼒的影響。例如，存在對於風險厭惡型的⽂化，⽽冒險傾向與創新⾏為已被證明存在關係。38 未來的研究可以進⾏跨⽂化的樣本收集，來規避⽂化差異對於創新⾏為的影響。此外，這項研究是橫截⾯研究。因此，儘管該模型有理論基礎上，但該研究證明因果關係還缺少縱向的因果關係論證。有學者證明了⼯作繁榮中得到的資源在未來是可以不斷回饋並且不斷循環的。30 因此，在未來的研究中可以使⽤縱向的研究設計來解釋變量間的因果關係。 本研究雖然探究了主動性⼈格對於創新⾏為的影響，這比之前的五⼤⼈格特徵更適合與⼯作場所員⼯⾏為但研究，但同時缺乏了對其他⼈格變量，如五⼤⼈格中外向，開放性⼈格作為控制變量來觀察，因此可能導致因果關係存在幹擾。未來的研究將進⼀步對於外向，開放性⼈格納入控制變量進⾏研究，減少這些變量對模型的⼲擾。 38 Jiang, Zhou. “Proactive personality and career adaptability: The role of thriving at work.” Journal of Vocational Behavior, 98 (2017): 85-97.
張鹿瑤、田青、陳妤婕 100 徵引書目 [1] 張聖利、⾺川君，〈⾼管薪酬與企業創新績效：綜述與展望〉，《中國鄉鎮企業會計》，第2期（北京：2022），123-126。 [2] Tsai, Kuen-Hung, Ming-Hung Hsieh, and Erik Jan Hultink. “External Technology Acquisition and Product Innovativeness: The Moderating Roles of R&D Investment and Configurational Context.” Journal of Engineering & Technology Management, 28.3 (2011): 184-200。 [3] Shalley, Christina E., Jing Zhou, and Oldham. Greg R. “The Effects of Personal and Contextual Characteristics on Creativity: Where Should We Go From Here?.” Journal of Management, 30.6 (2004): 933-958。 [4] Amabile, Teresa. M., Barsade, Sigal. G., Mueller, Jennifer. S., & Staw, Barry. M. “Affect and Creativity at Work.” Social Science Electronic Publishing, 50.3 (2005): 367-403. [5] Zhang, Xiaomeng, and Kathryn M. Bartol. “Linking Empowering Leadership and Employee Creativity: The Influence of Psychological Empowerment, Intrinsic Motivation, and Creative Process Engagement.” Academy of Management Journal, 53.1 (2010): 107-128. [6] George, Jennifer M., and Jing Zhou. “Dual Tuning in a Supportive Context: Joint Contributions of Positive Mood, Negative Mood, and Supervisory Behaviors to Employee Creativity.” Academy of Management Journal, 50.3(2007): 605-622. [7] Amabile, Teresa M., Conti, Regina., Coon, Lazenby, Jeffrey, & Herron, Michael. “Assessing the Work Environment for Creativity.” Academy of Management Journal, 39.5 (1996): 1154-1184. [8] 張碧惠、蔡顯童，〈員⼯創新投入與創新績效之探討：以兩家台灣科技服務企業為例〉，《⾏銷評論》，第17卷第1期，（新北：2020），1-48。 [9] 江⾟、王永躍、溫巧巧，〈學習⽬標導向對員⼯創新⾏為的作⽤機制研究〉，《科研管理》，第39卷第10期，（北京：2018），100-07。
主動性人格如何影響員工創新行為？ 101 [10] 仇瀘毅、張夢桃、王勔追、張⽣太，〈可⼲預的⼈格特質：⾃我分化對員⼯創新的影響〉，《科研管理》，第43卷第2期，（北京：2022），202-208。 [11] Kim, Tae-Yeol, Alice HY Hon, and Deog-Ro Lee. “Proactive Personality and Employee Creativity: The Effects of Job Creativity Requirement and Supervisor Support for Creativity.” Creativity Research Journal, 22.1 (2010): 37-45. [12] Kim, Tae-Yeol, Alice HY Hon, and J. Michael Crant. “Proactive Personality, Employee Creativity, and Newcomer Outcomes: A Longitudinal Study.” Journal of Business & Psychology, 24.1 (2009): 93-103. [13] 張建衛、周潔、李海紅、宣星宇，〈軍⼯研發⼈員內部⼈身份感知對其離職意向及創新⾏為的作⽤機理：主動性⼈格與組織職業⽣涯管理的聯合效應〉，《科技進步與對策》，第37卷第12期，（武漢：2020），108-117。 [14] 李光紅、袁朋偉、董曉慶，〈主動性⼈格與創新⾏為：⼀個跨層次被調節的中介模型〉，《山東⼤學學報（哲學社會科學版）》，第6期，（濟南：2017），94-102。 [15] Anderson, Neil, Kristina Potočnik, and Jing Zhou. “Innovation and Creativity in Organizations A State-of-the-Science Review, Prospective Commentary, and Guiding Framework.” Journal of Management, 40.5 (2014): 1297-1333. [16] Gretchen Spreitzer, Kathleen Sutcliffe, Jane Dutton, Scott Sonenshein, Adam M. Grant. “A Socially Embedded Model of Thriving at Work.” Organization Science, 16.5 (2005): 537-549. [17] Carmeli, Abraham, and Gretchen M. Spreitzer. “Trust, Connectivity, and Thriving: Implications for Innovative Behaviors at Work.” Journal of Creative Behavior, 43.3 (2011): 169-191. [18] Tett, Robert P., and Hal A. Guterman. “Situation Trait Relevance, Trait Expression, and Cross-Situational Consistency: Testing a Principle of Trait Activation.” Journal of Research in Personality, 34.4 (2000): 397-423. [19] Ambreen Sarwar, Muhammad Kashif Imran, Zafar-Uz-Zaman Anjum, Umer Zahid. “How Innovative Climate Leads to Project Success: the Moderating Role of Gender and Work Culture.” Innovation & Management Review, 17.4 (2020): 413-30. [20] Scott, Susanne G., and Reginald A. Bruce. “Determinants of Innovative Behavior: A
張鹿瑤、田青、陳妤婕 102 Path Model of Individual Innovation in the Workplace.” Academy of Management Journal, 37.3 (1994): 580-607. [21] Williamson, Jeanine M., John W. Lounsbury, and Lee D. Han. “Key personality traits of engineers for innovation and technology development.” Journal of Engineering & Technology Management, 30.2 (2013): 157-168. [22] Madrid, Hector. P., Patterson, Malcolm. G., Birdi, Kamal. S., Leiva, Pedro. I., & Kausel, Edgar. E. “The Role of Weekly High‐activated Positive Mood, Context, and Personality in Innovative Work Behavior: A Multilevel and Interactional Model.” Journal of Organizational Behavior, 35.2 (2014): 234-256. [23] Bateman, Thomas S., and J. Michael Crant. “The Proactive Component of Organizational Behavior: A Measure and Correlates.” Journal of Organizational Behavior, 14.2 (1993): 103-118. [24] Seibert, Scott E, J Michael Crant, Maria L Kraimer. “Proactive Personality and Career Success.” Journal of Applied Psychology, 84.3 (1999): 416-427. [25] Crant, J Michael. “Proactive Behavior in Organizations.” Journal of Management 26.3 (2000): 435-462. [26] Seibert, Scott E, Maria L Kraimer, J Michael Crant. “What Do Proactive People Do? A Longitudinal Model Linking Proactive Personality and Career Success.” Personnel Psychology, 54.4 (2010): 845-874. [27] Crant, J. Michael. “The Proactive Personality Scale and Objective Job Performance Among Real Estate Agents.” Journal of Applied Psychology, 80.4 (1995): 532-537. [28] 張振剛、余傳鵬、李雲健，〈主動性⼈格, 知識分享與員⼯創新⾏為關係研究〉，《管理評論》，第28卷第4期，（北京：2016），123-133。 [29] Thompson, Jeffery A. “Proactive Personality and Job Performance: A Social Capital Perspective.” The Journal of applied psychology, 90.5 (2005): 1011-1017. [30] Deci, Edward L., and Richard M. Ryan. “The \‘What\’and \‘Why\’of Goal Pursuits: Human Needs and the Self-Determination of Behavior.” Psychological Inquiry, 11.4 (2000): 227-268. [31] Porath, Christine, Gretchen Spreitzer, Christina Gibson, Flannery G. Garnett.
主動性人格如何影響員工創新行為？ 103 “Thriving at Work: Toward its Measurement, Construct Validation, and Theoretical Refinement.” Journal of Organizational Behavior, 33.2 (2012): 250-275. [32] Porath, Christine L., and T. S. Bateman. “Self-regulation: from goal orientation to job performance.” Journal of Applied Psychology, 91.1 (2006): 185-92. [33] Parker, Sharon K, Sandra Ohly. “Designing motivating jobs: An Expanded Framework for Linking Work Characteristics and Motivation.” In Work motivation: Past, present, and Future. EDS. R. Kanfer, G. Chen, & R. D. Pritchard. (Routledge/Taylor & Francis Group, 2008): 233-284. [34] Fuller Jr, Bryan, Laura E Marler. “Change Driven by Nature: A Meta-analytic Review of the Proactive Personality Literature.” Journal of Vocational Behavior, 75.3 (2009): 329-345. [35] Spreitzer, Gretchen M, Christine Porath. “Self-determination as Nutriment for Thriving: Building an Integrative Model of Human Growth at Work.” The Oxford handbook of work engagement, motivation, and self-determination theory, 90 (2014): 245-58. [36] Campbell, Donald T. “Blind Variation and Selective Retention in Creative thought as in Other Knowledge Processes.” Psychological Review, 67.6 (1960): 380. [37] Kark, Ronit, Abraham Carmeli. “Alive and Creating: The Mediating Role of Vitality and Aliveness in the Relationship between Psychological Safety and Creative Work Involvement.” Journal of Organizational Behavior, 30.6 (2010): 785-804. [38] Fredrickson, Barbara L. “The Role of Positive Emotions in Positive Psychology. The Broaden-and-build Theory of Positive Emotions.” American Psychologist, 56.3 (2001): 218-226. [39] Hirt, Edward R, Gary M Levine, Hugh E McDonald, R Jeffrey Melton, Leonard L Martin. “The Role of Mood in Quantitative and Qualitative Aspects of Performance: Single or Multiple Mechanisms?.” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 33.6 (1997): 602-29. [40] Seibert, Scott E., J. Michael Crant, and Maria L. Kraimer. “Proactive personality and career success.” The Journal of applied psychology, 84.3 (1999): 416-427.
張鹿瑤、田青、陳妤婕 104 [41] Jiang, Zhou. “Proactive Personality and Career Adaptability: The Role of Thriving at Work.” Journal of Vocational Behavior, 98 (2017): 85-97. [42] Pan, Jingzhou, Songbo Liu, Bin Ma, Zhiyao Qu. “How Does Proactive Personality Promote Creativity? A Multilevel Examination of the Interplay between Formal and Informal Leadership.” Journal of Occupational & Organizational Psychology, 91.4 (2018): 852-874. [43] Lin, Shin-Huei, Wan Chen Lu, Mei-Yen Chen, Lung Hung Chen. “Association between Proactive Personality and Academic Self–efficacy.” Current Psychology, 33 (2014): 600-609. [44] Lievens, Filip, Christopher S Chasteen, Eric Anthony Day, Neil D Christiansen. “Large-scale Investigation of the Role of Trait Activation Theory for Understanding Assessment Center Convergent and Discriminant Validity.” Journal of Applied Psychology, 91.2 (2006): 247. [45] Li, Wen-Dong, Doris Fay, Michael Frese, Peter D Harms, Xiang Yu Gao. “Reciprocal Relationship between Proactive Personality and Work Characteristics: A Latent Change Score Approach.” Journal of Applied Psychology, 99.5 (2014): 948.
主動性人格如何影響員工創新行為？ 105 致謝詞 本文在寫作中受到多位商學院老師的幫助，同時亦有賴於各位友人協助進行問卷調查，特此致謝。 第㆒作者簡介 張鹿瑤，澳門科技大學商學院管理學博士生，研究領域為組織行為學，著有期刊論文“The Relationship between Vocational College Students’ Liking of Teachers and Learning Engagement: A Moderated Mediation Model” 通訊地址：江蘇省鹽城市亭湖區解放南路城中一號 通訊電郵：340562427@qq.com 第㆓作者簡介 田 青，澳門科技大學商學院教授，研究領域為組織行為學，人力資源管理，著有 SSCI 論文“Should We be ‘Challenging’ Employees? A Study of Job Complexity and Job Crafting”; “How and When Does Perceived CSR Affect Employees’ Engagement in Voluntary Pro-Environmental Behavior? ”等。 通訊地址：澳門科技大學商學院 通訊電郵：qtian@must.edu.mo 第㆔作者(通訊作者）簡介 陳妤婕，澳門科技大學酒店與旅遊管理學院助理教授。主要研究方向：人力資源管理，營銷學，组織行為學。著有論文“The Impacts of Social Responsibility on Enterprise Performance in Chinese Hospitality Industry”；“Relationships between Intellectual Capital and Enterprise Performance: Evidence gambling and tourism of Macau from the gambling and tourism of Macau”等。 通訊地址：澳門氹仔偉龍馬路澳門科技大學 O座 323 室
周挺、邱奕霖 108 Research on the legal system of economic aid measures in cases of major infectious diseases in Macao Zhou, Ting1; Qiu, Yilin (1. Faculty of Law, Macau University of Science and Technology) Abstract: During the COVID-19 pandemic, people’s livelihoods and economies have been significantly impacted, necessitating targeted economic assistance from governments. However, appropriate legal classifications and constraint standards remain contentious. Examining the economic aid in the Macau Special Administrative Region reveals that theories like social assistance and administrative compensation are insufficient. New theoretical models accounting for infectious disease outbreaks should be employed to establish a solid legal foundation. Developing principle-based standards requires optimizing the social assistance model, enhancing decision-making in universal assistance selection, and fostering progressive principles. Concurrently, a framework centered on economic regulation, while incorporating social assistance, should be constructed. This approach ensures comprehensive macro-level coverage and delivers targeted, equitable aid at the micro-level. Keywords: The Literary Mind and the Carving of Dragons; “The One Who Knows the Tone”; mirror metaphor; taste metaphor; “Six Views”
鄭應峰 130 Regional interpretation of Thunderstorm: The stage investigation of Hong Kong and Macau versions about Thunderstorm in recent years Zheng, Yingfeng (Assistant Professor, University International College, Macau University of Science and Technology) Abstract: The performances of Thunderstorm in Hong Kong and Macau in recent years can be rehearsed according to their own characteristics. Using dialect, dancing, there are also amateur forms of practice. However, behind these localized adaptations, it reflects the dramatist' different concepts of Thunderstorm and even the drama. The idea itself does not mean abstract, it just needs to be expressed in the corresponding artistic appearance or form, so that the idea can gain its vitality and art can obtain the desired ideal. Therefore, through the investigation of the Hong Kong and Macau version of Thunderstorm in recent years, we can not only notice the regional interpretation of Thunderstorm, but also have a glimpse of the dramatic art view of the Hong Kong and Macao drama circles. And Thunderstorm has gone beyond the masterpiece itself, reflecting the rich connotation of literature. The original author’s profound thoughts on society and life are worthy of our deep consideration. Keywords: Thunderstorm; Drama; Literary; Artistic Ideal
吳哲昊、何敏妍、陳鈺瀅、吳其標、于麗麗 146 Research on Health Culture Literacy among Medical and Healthcare Related Students in Zhuhai and Macau Wu, Zhehao; Ho, Manin, Chen Yuying; Wu, Qibiao; Yu, Lili ( Faculty of Chinese Medicine, Macau University of Science and Technology) Abstract: To investigate current status of the cultural literacy level of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) health among college students majoring in medical and healthcare in the Zhuhai and Macau, the results of the survey can provide evidence for the government to formulate appropriate policies, and promote the development of Chinese medicine talents in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area. Stratified cluster sampling was used to sample college students, and the data were analyzed by Χ2-test test and Logistic regression. A total of 964 questionnaires and 927 valid questionnaires were obtained. The overall level of health literacy of the sample population was 31.1%, the five-dimensional literacy level, from high to low, is healthy lifestyle literacy, cultural knowledge literacy, basic concept literacy, information comprehension ability, public appropriate methods literacy. There were significant differences between the literacy level of the students and the analysis results of their domicile, grade and major (P <0.05). The overall level of health cultural literacy among college students in Zhuhai and Macau is higher than that of national residents, but the scores in all dimensions are uneven. Domicile, grade and major are the factors that affect the level of dimensions of literacy. The colleges in Zhuhai and Macau should emphasize the importance of TCM health cultural literacy education and further improve the level of TCM health cultural literacy of students in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area. Keywords: Zhuhai and Macau; College students; Health culture literacy
世漢學會國際中文教育研究專欄 The Column of the International Society for Chinese Language Teaching 此專欄係教育部中外語言交流合作中心、世界漢語教學學會與《澳門科技大學學報》編輯部合作設立，並由教育部中外語言交流合作中心資助，特此鳴謝。
教育部㆗外語言交流合作㆗心 簡 介 中外語言交流合作中心（簡稱「語合中心」，英文名稱 Center for Language Education and Cooperation，簡稱 CLEC）隸屬於中國教育部，是發展國際中文教育事業的專業公益教育機構，致力於為世界各國民眾學習中文、瞭解中國提供優質的服務，為中外語言交流合作、世界多元文化互學互鑒搭建友好協作的平臺。 語合中心的主要職能為發展國際中文教育與促進中外語言交流合作提供服務，統籌建設國際中文教育資源體系，參與制定國際中文教育相關標準並組織實施；支持國際中文教師、教材、學科等建設和學術研究；組織實施國際中文教師考試、外國人中文水準系列考試，開展相關評估認定；運行漢語橋、新漢學、獎學金等國際中文教育相關項目；開展中外語言交流合作等。
世界漢語教㈻㈻會 簡 介 世界漢語教學學會（簡稱「世漢學會」，英文名稱 The International Society for Chinese Language Teaching）成立於 1987 年 8 月 14 日，是經中華人民共和國民政部登記註冊的國際社會組織和非營利性民間學術團體，主管單位為中華人民共和國教育部，秘書處設在教育部中外語言交流合作中心（北京市西城區德勝門外大街 129號 401）。2011年 10月與聯合國教科文組織建立合作關係，會員遍佈全球 79個國家和地區，主要由世界各地從事漢語教學、研究和推廣的人士及相關機構組成。 學會宗旨是遵守中華人民共和國憲法、法律、法規和國家政策，遵守社會道德風尚；促進國際漢語教學、研究和推廣；加強世界各地漢語教學與研究工作者之間、機構之間的聯繫。 學會理事會為議事決策機構。歷任會長為朱德熙、呂必松、陸儉明、許嘉璐等，現任會長於 2019年 12月當選，為天津師範大學校長鍾英華教授。第十一屆理事會由來自 31 個國家和地區的國際中文教育學術團體、各國高等院校及中文專業院系、著名漢學家、具有較高聲望的學術帶頭人、世漢學會創會會員、永久會員和普通會員等 65位理事（單位）組成。
澳門科技大學學報第十七卷第二期 世漢學會國際中文教育研究專欄 二零二三年六月，頁 161-182 DOI: 10.58664/mustjournal.2023.06.008 161 現代漢語中「V+在+NPL」結構的語義類型及形成成因* 張偉 （澳門科技大學國際學院） 摘要：本文以「在+NPL」表「現實空間處所」義為基礎，深入考察了「V+在+NPL」結構中表動作 V 與表處所「在+NPL」組合後的語義關係。首先，結合 CCL 語料庫考察發現共時層面該結構的語義類型分為三類：動作結果、動態進行和靜態存在。其次，與「在+NPL+V」結構語義類型進行對比發現，準入該結構的動詞 V 在語義特徵上形成了一個連續統，結合歷時語料與前人的已有研究，證明瞭「V+在+NPL」三種語義類型實則為一個由弱到強的歷時連續統。最後，探討了「在+NPL」與 V 組合的語序成因，發現「V+在+NPL」語序的形成受臨摹原則和抽象原則的雙重驅動，而「在+NPL+V」結構只受臨摹原則驅動。 關鍵詞：V+在+NPL、動作、處所、語序成因、抽象原則 * 收稿日期：2022年 07月 15日；通過日期：2022年 11月 29日。
張偉 162 On the Semantic Types and Formation Causes of「V+zai+NPL」Structure in Modern Chinese Language Zhang, Wei （University International College, Macao University of Science and Technology） Abstract: Based on the “zai + NPL” indicating “real space location”, this paper takes further study on the semantic relationship between V which indicates action and “zai + NPL” which indicates location after their combination in Chinese. First, upon a deep observation of the example sentences from CCL corpus, this paper shows that the semantic types of “V + zai + NPL” structure can be divided into three categories at the synchronic level: action result, dynamic progress and static-existence. Secondly, compared with the semantic type of structure “zai + NPL + V”, it has been found that the action V of admitting the structure has formed a continuum in semantic features. Combined diachronic corpus and previous researches, this paper proved that the three semantic types of “V +zai+ NPL” are actually a diachronic continuum from weak to strong. Finally, this paper explored the causes of word order of the combination of “zai+NPL” and V, finding that the formation of structure “V+zai+NPL” is driven by both Abstract Principle and Iconic Principle, while the structure “zai+NPL+ V” is driven only by the Iconic Principle. Keywords: V+zai+NPL; Action; Location; Causes of word order; Abstract Principle
張偉 174 例 38-40中的動詞「放」「紮」「擺」「踢」的意思同現代漢語中⼀樣，結構均可表 A類語義，其中例 39句的結構也可以表⽰ C類義，這說明 C類是最穩定的語義類型。相較於中古時期，近古時期「V+在+NPL」結構具有了獨⽴成句的能⼒，如例39 句的「紮在⿈線索上」和「擺在桌上」，結構成分已凝固成⼀個語⾔單位「V 在NPL」，各成分不可刪減，表事物靜⽌的狀態。 綜上，從上古到近古的歷時發展來看，N 式結構經歷了這樣⼀個過程：C 類語義是最先出現成為常規，A 類語義近古出現並於近古末期完成了常規化，B 類語義類型處在兩者之間伴隨但早於 A類語義出現，這就形成了⼀個具有先後發展順序的語義類型連續統：C＞B＞A。這種發展順序表明：漢民族認知事物的狀態上，經歷了⼀個從靜⽌狀態到持續進⾏狀態再到暫態位移的發展過程，與其對應的動作 V的語義特徵保持⼀致，這就證實了前⽂的結構語義類型與對應的動詞分類均是合理的。 四、「在+NPL」位於動詞V前、後的成因 就動作 V與處所「在+NPL」之間的語義關係⽽⾔，M式和 N式屬於兩種不同的表達結構，也是兩種不同的語序類型。據前⽂的分析來看，N 式語序從上古到近古的發展來看表達功能廣泛，⽽⽤ M 式語序來表達與 N 式相同的功能則是後來才出現的，也就是說「在+NPL」與 V的語序組合存在句法和語義上的聯繫，問題是這種聯繫產⽣的成因何在？ （㆒）、已㈲的成因解釋及尚存問題 為了解釋這種現象，不少學者提出了⾃⼰的看法，⼤致分為兩派：⼀是認為「在+NPL」由動後向動前移動造成的，⼀是認為⼆者是各⾃獨⽴發展的。前者的觀點是基於歷時語料的形式變化提出的，代表學者如 Peyraube、孫朝奮等。15他們通過語料調查指出動前各種介詞結構都經歷過動後向動前的移位過程，後來張赬進⼀步考察 15 Peyraube Alain,“On the history of Chinese locative prepositions”Journal of Chinese Linguistics Vol.2（1994.06）, 361-386; Sun,Chaofen（孫朝奮）,Word-order Changes and Grammaticalization in the History of Chinese, Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1996.
現代漢語中「V+在+NPL」結構的語義類型及形成成因 175 承認表處所的介詞⽚語確實是前移了，前移的成因如語義關係、介詞興替、動後限制等，但張並沒有承認所有的介詞都向前移位過，與瀋陽等學者類似。16對前移的觀點持謹慎態度是⼀致的，因為表「⽅向、存在」義的「在/到+處所」⼀直在動後並未沒前移，說必須或已經都發⽣前移的說法難以令⼈信服，這是有道理的。後者的觀點是基於「在」本身作為⼀個動詞，本來就可以跟處所義的名詞性短語，置於另外⼀個動詞前後構成了連動結構，此類觀點的代表⼈物有趙元任、戴浩⼀、崔希亮、張國憲、祝麗麗、王⽂斌等。17對於動前動後語序的解釋，其中最著名的⼀種觀點是戴浩⼀提出的「時間順序原則」（PTS，簡稱「時序原則」），但該原則對「他死在國外」這樣的結構解釋不通。另⼀種代表性的觀點是認知不同造成了語序不同，如崔希亮、張國憲等從認知圖式出發論證可兩種結構處所介詞位置差異取決於認知圖式的差異，動前的介詞結構作為容器掃描，動後介詞結構作為路徑掃描，這種解釋的優點在於對只能動前（在廚房裡哭）或只能動後（⾬下在地上）的語序結構給與了較好的解釋，但無法處理前後位置上各成分的意思基本相同的結構，如「⾛在⼤街上」和「在⼤街上⾛（著）」的「⾛」和「在⼤街上」意思基本是⼀樣的，但說⼆者的語序結構彼此獨⽴發展是很勉強的。 上述的主要觀點之所以對「在+NPL」位於 V 的前後成因難以取得令⼈信服的解釋，主要問題在於兩點：⼀是已有觀點陳述的成因是觀察部分現象得到的部分事理，無法顧及到兩種結構的全部差異︔⼆是已有研究忽略了動後結構語義類型的複雜性，沒有將其語義類型複雜性與語序類型之間的差異結合起來討論，難以作出系統性的解釋。我們在歸納上述各家觀點的基礎上，以「在」的動詞屬性為基礎，結合動後結構語義類型的複雜性和語序類型差異的形式特徵來解釋動作「V」與處所「在+NPL」語序不同成因。 16 瀋陽，〈現代漢語「V+到/在 NP_L」結構的句法構造及相關問題〉，《中國語文》，第 2期（2015）， 105-120+191。 17 代表人物之著作略述如下，請參見：趙元任，呂叔湘譯，《漢語口語語法》，（北京：商務印書館，1979），177/296；Tai,H.Y. James（戴浩一）,“On two functions of the verb and the relative positions of the locatives,” Journal of Chinese Linguistics Vol.3, 1975, 154-177；戴浩一（Tai, H.Y. James），黃河譯，〈時間順序和漢語的語序〉，《國外語言學》，第 1期（1988），10-20；崔希亮，〈漢語空間方位場景與論元的凸顯〉，《世界漢語教學》，第 4 期（2001），3-11；張國憲、盧健，〈「在+處所」狀態構式的事件表達和語篇功能〉，《中國語文》，第 6期（2010），484；祝麗麗、王文斌，〈「在」的詞類屬性再認識〉，《外語研究》，第 5期（2019），32-38。
張偉 176 （㆓）、語義類型的歷時考察 M式和 N式結構擁有共同的句法單位「V」與「在+NPL」，⼀個表動作，⼀個表處所，⼆者之間的語義關係為動作與處所之間的位置語序差異。戴浩⼀（1975/1988）提出的「時序原則」（PTS）認為「兩個句法單位的相對次序決定於它們所表⽰的概念領域裡的狀態的時間順序」，他以「⼩猴⼦在⾺背上跳」和「⼩猴⼦跳在⾺背上」作為最⼩對比對，證明了「在+NPL」位於 V前或後的語序都遵循時序原則，這是值得肯定的，但在⾯對諸如「他死在國外」的結構時時序原則的解釋受到了挑戰，因為時間上不可能存在「先死再到國外」的情況，說明動後語序僅受時序原則影響是不全的，應還受其他成因的影響。 對於世界上語⾔表達的語序組合，通常遵循兩條原則：臨摹原則（Iconic principle）和抽象原則（Abstract Principle），⼆者的概念界定中外不少學者均有論述。18⼆者的區別簡單來說，前者占主導地位時形成的語⾔表達成分組合語序與現實世界的情景象似度⾼，即結構臨摹性⾼︔後者占主導地位時形成的語⾔表達組合語序與現實世界情景關係不⼤，⽽是由整個語⾔符號系統內部的、⾃主的運⾏規則有關，兩條原則共同作⽤⽽影響著特定的語法結構。根據謝氏的說法，戴氏提出的「時序原則」屬於典型的臨摹原則，結構「跳+在⾺背上」和「在⾺背上+跳」均是按照動作發⽣的時間先後順序來組合的語序，語序是對現實情景的象似模擬。 結合相關學者已有的歷時研究，從語義上來看先秦的處所介詞結構在句法位置上比較特殊，體現為「介+處所」處於動詞後的位置占主導地位,無論是表動作的起點位置、經由點、⽅向還是終⽌點，「介+處所」與動作 V的組合均以「V+介+處所」語序組合為優勢結構，這是「抽象原則」使然的結果。19又郭錫良指出漢代以後「在」由動詞虛化為介詞，成為介詞「于」的主要替代者。20張赬考察先秦時「于/於」引 18 Haiman, John. “The iconicity of grammar: isomorphism and motivation.” Language 56 (NY:1980.09): 515-540；Haiman, John. “Iconic and economic motivation.” Language 59 (NY:1983.12): 781-819；Haiman, John. Iconicity in Syntax (Volume 6). Amsterdam: Benjamins, 1985, 10-150；謝信一，葉蜚聲譯，〈漢語中的時間與意象〉，《國外語言學》，第 4期（1991），6；王文斌、艾瑞，〈漢語語序的主導性原則是「時間順序」還是「空間順序」？〉，《世界漢語教學》，第 3期（2002），321。 19 蔣紹愚，〈抽象原則和臨摹原則在漢語語法史中的體現〉，《古漢語研究》，第 4期（1999），2-5；張赬，〈現代漢語介詞片語「在 L」與動詞賓語的詞序規律的形成〉，《中國語文》，第 2期（2001），149-154。 20 郭錫良，〈介詞「於」的起源與發展〉，《中國語文》，第 2期（1997），131-138。郭錫良（1997:135-
現代漢語中「V+在+NPL」結構的語義類型及形成成因 181 [17] 郭銳，〈漢語動詞的過程結構〉，《中國語⽂》，第6期（1993），410-419。 [18] 劉寧⽣，〈論「著」及其相關的兩個動態範疇〉，《語⾔研究》，第2期（1985），117-128。 [19] 周俊勳，《中古漢語詞彙研究綱要》，成都：巴蜀書社，2009。 [20] 張赬，《漢語介詞⽚語詞序的歷史演變》，北京：語⾔⽂化⼤學出版社，2002。 [21] 陳昌來，《介詞與介引功能》，合肥：安徽教育出版社，2002。 [22] 邵洪亮，〈「V在L」格式的發展和虛化歷程〉，《上海師範⼤學學報（哲學社會科學版）》，第4期（2005），119-124。 [23] Peyraube Alain, “On the history of Chinese locative prepositions.” Journal of Chinese Linguistics Vol.2（1994）. [24] Sun,Chaofen（孫朝奮）,Word-order Changes and Grammaticalization in the history of Chinese, Stanford:Stanford University Press, 1996. [25] 瀋陽，〈現代漢語「V+到/在NP_L」結構的句法構造及相關問題〉，《中國語⽂》，第2期（2015）， 105-120+191。 [26] 趙元任，《呂叔湘譯·漢語⼜語語法》，北京：商務印書館，1979。 [27] Tai,H.Y. James（戴浩⼀）,“On Two Functions of the Verb and the Relative Positions of the Locatives.” Journal of Chinese Linguistics Vol.3, 1975. [28] 戴浩⼀（Tai, H.Y. James）、⿈河譯，〈時間順序和漢語的語序〉，《國外語⾔學》，第1期（1988），10-20。 [29] 崔希亮，〈漢語空間⽅位場景與論元的凸顯〉，《世界漢語教學》，第4期（2001）， 3-11。 [30] 祝麗麗、王⽂斌，〈「在」的詞類屬性再認識〉，《外語研究》，第5期（2019），32-38。 [31] Haiman, John. “The iconicity of grammar: isomorphism and motivation.” Language 56 (1980): 515-540. [32] Haiman, John. “Iconic and economic motivation.” Language 59 (1983): 781-819. [33] Haiman, John. Iconicity in Syntax (Volume 6). Amsterdam: Benjamins, 1985. [34] 謝信⼀，葉蜚聲譯，〈漢語中的時間與意象〉，《國外語⾔學》，第4期（1991），6。
程明 184 Instruction and Design of Culture on Teaching Chinese as a Foreign Language from the Perspective of IB Concept-based Curriculum Cheng, Ming (Doctoral student of International College, Macau University of Science and Technology) Abstract: There are many problems in teaching Chinese as a foreign language, such as unclear identification of teaching content, unclear teaching objectives, unclear teaching objects, non-standard teaching difficulty and poor teaching effect. Based on the concept-based instruction and design which is widely used in the International Baccalaureate curriculum as one of the six major approach to teaching, this paper will adopt the viewpoint of Mei Lichong (1994), which divided the culture teaching contents of TCFL into declarative and procedural knowledge to set up “concept, knowledge, skill” three-dimensional structure of culture instruction and design of TCFL. It contains two sub-structures: the structure of knowledge: cultural concept, cultural theme, cultural knowledge, and the structure of process: cultural concept, cultural process, cultural strategy/skill. The concept-based instruction and design, proposing the KUD model, making the curriculum from two-dimensional to three-dimensional, will greatly promote the students’ deep understanding, make students go from cultural crossing to cultural transcendence in cross-cultural communication, and improve the discipline literacy in second language learning. Keywords: Teaching Chinese as a foreign language; Concept-based; Culture outline; Cross cultural communication
程明 186 後者偏向技能，⽽按照教育學和⼼理學的相關理論，7這兩種分類基本上對應於陳述性知識和程序性知識，⽽在對外漢語學界，梅⽴崇也曾將對外漢語⽂化教學內容分為陳述性（declarative）⽂化知識和程序性（procedural）⽂化知識，本⽂也擬借鑒此分類⽅法。8 (㆒)、知識的結構 陳述性知識，是關於事實本身的知識，在對外漢語⽂化教學中，包含「語義系統」「語法系統」和「語⽤系統」，所以它符合概念為本的教學與設計中的「知識的結構」，9如圖 1。在這樣⼀種結構中，許多需要記憶性的辭彙和語法點等，都屬於底層「事實」的範疇，它相對來說比較固定，系統性較強，有統⼀的標準和答案，比如中國五⼤名山的名稱，中國的八⼤菜系裏的各種著名的菜肴。 圖1 知識的結構 交際與國際漢語教學》（英漢對照），（外語教學與研究出版社，2017）；孔子學院總部、國家漢辦編，《國際漢語教學通用課程大綱》（修訂版），（北京語言大學出版社，2014）。 7 Ryle, The Concept of Mind. (London: Hutchinson’s University library, 1949); L·W·安德森等，《學習、教學和評估的分類學—佈魯姆教育目標分類學修訂版（縮略本）》，（上海：華東師范大學出版社，2007），58-76；皮連生，《智育心理學》，（北京：人民教育出版社，1996）。 8 梅立崇，〈試談陳述性文化知識和程序性文化知識〉，《漢語學習》，第 1期（延邊：1994），49。 9 Erickson, H.L., Stirring the head, heart, and soul: Redefining curriculum and instruction, Thousand Oaks, CA: Corwin, 1995.
IB課程概念為本視角下的對外漢語文化教學與設計 187 （㆓）、過程的結構 程序性⽂化知識是由陳述性⽂化知識轉化⽽來的⼀種⽂化能⼒，語⾔藝術類相關學科，不管是母語、外語還是第⼆語⾔的學習，本身並不是要學⽣理解知識點，⽽是要讓他們能夠在真實情境中，根據需要，調動⼤腦中所掌握的語⾔知識點，並通過聽、說、讀、寫等相關技能不斷的過程性實踐和回饋，進⾏語⾔交際，乃至跨⽂化交際。這其中，涉及到很多交際策略和技巧，所以說，對外漢語⽂化教學作為第⼆語⾔教學中的重要內容之⼀，其中的程序性⽂化知識符合概念為本的教學與設計中「過程的結構，如圖 2。10在這種結構中，學⽣必須要通過「做」，即⾏為，來體現⾃⼰是真正掌握了這些知識點，比如，當⽼師在通過⽂本的學習，讓學⽣知道中⽂在表達地址時，要注意遵循從⼤到⼩的這⼀策略和技巧後，學⽣需要閱讀相關包含地址陳述的對話或⽂本，操練「你家住哪⾥、問路」等相關主題的⼜語表達，學習填寫⾃⼰的住址收發快遞等不斷的⾏動、回饋，來提升⾃⼰的技能，達到「會」的狀態。 圖2 過程的結構 10 Lanning, L. Designing a concept-based curriculum in English language arts: Meeting the common core with intellectual integrity, K-12, Thousand Oaks, CA: Corwin, 2013.
程明 190 圖3 二維課程模式和三維課程模式 這種「知識、概念、技能」的三維課程模型比較適合對外漢語⽂化教學與設計，它也和《國際漢語教學通⽤課程⼤綱》（2014）中對「⽂化能⼒」的組成部分—⽂化知識、⽂化理解、跨⽂化能⼒和國際視野，基本能互相對應。13⼆⼗⼀世紀是知識⼤爆炸的時代，不管是中國古代⽂化知識，還是現當代⽂化知識，都在不斷地被發現和創造，幾乎是難以窮盡的，這⼀點很像歷史學科，⾼度依賴於內容，⽽且歷史知識本身就是⽂化知識的主要內容之⼀，Stern提出了⼀個涵蓋了⼤多數學習者最可能習得的⽂化知識的主要⽅⾯，包括：「地點︔個⼈⽣活⽅式︔⼈與社會整體︔歷史知識︔機構︔藝術、⾳樂、⽂學等重⼤成果。」14但是教師沒有時間教會學⽣這麼多的知識，特別是⼤部分⼆語學習者，由於學習⽬的是為了更快更好地使⽤漢語，⽤於政治、經濟、⽂化的交流，不是去為了應試或做相關研究，所以他們沒有動⼒或精⼒去記憶⼤量的事實性知識，如果當這些知識點無法和他們已有的對中國⽂化知識的瞭解，或他所熟悉和掌握的本國⽂化知識點相聯系時，很快就會忘掉。⽽概念可以幫助學⽣在這些複雜龐⼤的⽂化知識點之間構建⼀張統⼀完整的網路，使其內化為他們⾃⼰能夠理解的概念性知識。 此外，技能層⾯的「動詞+主題」式教學⽬標的設定，並不能保證學⽣產⽣深度思考和深層理解，學⽣可能還是在機械地記憶和背誦各種⼜語表達和寫作技巧、答題策略，無法達到可「遷移」的層次。比如，就算⼀個留學⽣可以識別中國不同地區⼈們⽇常飲食的主要食物和⼜味偏好，但是他不⼀定能夠理解這其實與其所處的 13 Byram, Michasl, Communicative Language Teaching and TCSOL, 和靜、趙媛譯，《跨文化交際與國際漢語教學》（英漢對照），（外語教學與研究出版社，2017）。 14 Stern, Hans, H, Issues and Options in Language Teaching, Oxford University Press, 1992; 崔永華，〈對外漢語教學的目標是培養漢語跨文化交際能力〉，《語言教學與研究》， 第 4期（北京：2020），31。
IB課程概念為本視角下的對外漢語文化教學與設計 193 （㆓）、美國文化㆔角形模型和概念為本的課程設計的比較研究 1999年，美國頒佈《⼆⼗⼀世紀外語學習標準》，特別強調外語教學中的⽂化內容，該標準提出「從三個⽅⾯來認識⽂化：⽂化觀念（Perspective）、⽂化習俗（Practices）、⽂化產物（Products）。三者互相聯繫、互相影響。習俗與產物都與觀念相關，並都體現出社會⽂化的觀念形態。」20王學松認為，⽂化三角形中的「⽂化觀念」就是「⽂化概念」，⽽產品和習俗又與⽂化觀念相關聯，既是⽂化觀念形成的物質⽣活基礎，又受到⽂化觀念的推動和制約。21如圖 4，以「中秋節」的⼀個教學主題為例。 圖4 文化三角形 圖5 文化三角形升級到知識的結構和過程的結構 27；Maslow, A.H., The Father Reaches of Human Nature, (N. Y.: The Viking Press, 1971). 20 李曉琪，《漢語作為第二語言教學的文化教學研究》，北京：商務印書館，2019。 21 王學松，〈「文化三角形」的方法論意義〉，《雲南師範大學學報（對外漢語教學與研究版）》，第 3期（昆明：2020），2。
IB課程概念為本視角下的對外漢語文化教學與設計 195 表達⾃⼰的情感。學⽣才是達到了⼀種在認知⽔準上的最⾼層級—拓展抽象結構（⾒圖 6），這是⼀種能夠隨意遷移的能⼒，當學⽣習得這種能⼒時，它其實是通⽤於任何⼀種語⾔中的，也就是說，打破了母語和⽬的語的界限，實現了⽂化的超越，可以在任何新情況下，解決遇到的類似問題，比如學⽣可以理解中國⼈對不同物體的不同象徵意義的理解，甚至反過來理解⾃⼰國家的某些⽂學家的寫作⼿法和⽂本的深層次意境。 圖6 SOLO分類評價理論的層級結構模型22 不管是⽂化習俗，還是⽂化產品，不管是⽂化內容，還是⽂化主題，如果學⽣無法通過⽂化觀念，或者說⽂化概念，找到之間的相互關係，聯結起來，那麼就僅僅是單點結構，或者說多點結構，知識和技能仍然沒有被結構化，處於離散狀態，沒有指向⼀個明確的⽬的和意義。⽽概念為本的教學模式，在制定教學⽬標時，K和U 就體現了⽬標的層級，既兼顧了知識的層⾯ K，又通過概念使知識結構化，指向了概念理解層⾯—關聯結構和拓展結構。 某些⽂化⼤綱已經有概念為本的三維課程的影⼦，比如盧偉（2005）以「乘風漢語」這套教學課件為主要研究對象，將其中的⽂化教學體系和⽂化⼤綱分為 10個總類，31個⼦類，和 190個⽂化點。23其中 10個總類中的辭彙，基本上都屬於概念性辭彙，如：⽣活⽅式、社會結構、空間等︔31個⼦類基本上屬於主題範疇，要比總類中的概念性詞彙更具體，如：交通與通訊、節慶習俗、吉祥物等︔190個⽂化點（⽂化素）基本上屬於事實（知識的結構）的範疇，非常的具體，如：中國⼈的姓 22 Biggs, J. B., & Collis, K.F., “The SOLO taxonomy (Structure of the Observed Learning Outcome).” in Evaluating the quality of learning, (New York, NY: Academic Press,1982). 23 盧偉，〈「乘風漢語」的中國文化教學研究〉，載劉頌浩等（主編）〉，《〈乘風漢語〉教學設計與研究》，（世界圖書出版公司，2005），43-61。
程明 196 名、麻婆⾖腐、中國古典園林等，或者技能（過程的結構）的範疇，如：介紹他⼈。 當然，其在最頂層缺少概念性理解，故可以借鑒 IB課程的以概念為本的課程設計理念，比如在教「健康」主題時，在知識的結構設定概念性理解為：⼈們吃的食物反映了他們對健康觀念的理解︔在過程的結構設定概念性理解為：有效的溝通依賴於準確的發⾳、辭彙和語法的應⽤。並通過⼀系列事實性探究題、概念性探究題、可辯性探究題，幫助學⽣達成概念性理解。24 五、結語 ⼆⼗⼀世紀是⽇新⽉異的資訊時代，所有學科學習的本質不再是獲得固定⽽正確的知識事實，⽽是學會理解，培養學⽣的學科核⼼素養，發展以學科理解或思維為核⼼的學科⾼級能⼒與⼈性能⼒，25對外漢語作為⼀⾨獨⽴的學科，亦是如此，學⽣在⽂化學習中，不是掌握的知識越多越好，⽽是需要理解得越深越好，深挖⼀個主題，幫助學⽣⽣成屬於他⾃⼰的概念性理解，效果遠比教師給學⽣講授很多個零散的主題⽂化知識要好。中國⽂化本身也是相互貫通，可以以⼩⾒⼤，以點帶⾯。以概念為本的對外漢語教學與設計理念，可以很好地擺脫教材的束縛，帶領⽼師從教教材⾛向⽤教材教，打破陳述性⽂化知識和程序性⽂化知識的隔閡，⽽且能「很好地抓住並利⽤學⽣⾃身帶來的⽂化資源」，26真正地解放了⽼師，解放了學⽣，解放了課堂，使學⽣的學習有了主導權和選擇權。⽼師在概念為本的課堂中，只是⼀個觀察者、引導者，將與學⽣⼀起制定評估標準，⼀起探究，共同成長，同伴互鑒，不斷反思，達到⼀種理想的教學實施狀態。 24 武茜，〈概念驅動教學在 IBDP中文 B課程中的實踐探索〉，《外語教研》，（2020.09），83。 25 張華，〈論學科核心素養—兼論資訊時代的學科教育〉，《華東師範大學學辦（教育科學版）》，第 1期（上海：2019），56。 26 Kumaravadivelu, Anoimo B., Culture Globalization and Language Education. (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 2017).
程明 198 [14] 吳勇毅，〈以概念為本的教師發展：做⼀個不⼀樣的國際中⽂教師〉，《雲南師範⼤學學報（對外漢語教學與研究版）》，第4期（昆明：2022.07），51。 [15] ⾼⼀虹，〈跨⽂化交際能⼒的培養「跨越」與「超越」〉，《外語與外語教學》，第10期（⼤連：2002），27 [16] 張英，〈對外漢語⽂化因素與⽂化知識教學研究〉，《漢語學習》，第6期（延邊2006.12），64。 [17] 李曉琪，《漢語作為第⼆語⾔教學的⽂化教學研究》，商務印書館，2019。 [18] 王學松，〈「⽂化三角形」的⽅法論意義〉，《雲南師範⼤學學報（對外漢語教學與研究版）》，第3期（昆明：2020），2。 [19] 盧偉，〈「乘風漢語」的中國⽂化教學研究〉，載劉頌浩等（主編）〉，《〈乘風漢語〉教學設計與研究》，世界圖書出版公司，2005，43-61。 [20] 武茜，〈概念驅動教學在IBDP中⽂B課程中的實踐探索〉，《外語教研》，（2020.09），83。 [21] 張華，〈論學科核⼼素養—兼論資訊時代的學科教育〉，《華東師範⼤學學辦（教育科學版）》，第1期（上海：2019），56。 ㆓、西文著作 [1] Ryle, The Concept of Mind. London: Hutchinson’s University library, 1949. [2] Byram, Michasl, Communicative Language Teaching and TCSOL，和靜、趙媛譯，《跨⽂化交際與國際漢語教學》（英漢對照），外語教學與研究出版社，2017。 [3] Lanning, L. Designing a concept-based curriculum in English language arts: Meeting the common core with intellectual integrity, K-12, Thousand Oaks, CA: Corwin, 2013. [4] Erickson, H.L., Stirring the head, heart, and soul: Redefining curriculum and instruction, Thousand Oaks, CA: Corwin, 1995. [5] Stern, Hans H, Issues and Options in Language Teaching, Oxford University Press, 1992. [6] Maslow, A.H., The Father Reaches of Human Nature, N. Y.: The Viking Press, 1971. [7] Biggs, J. B., & Collis, K.F., “The SOLO taxonomy (Structure of the Observed
IB課程概念為本視角下的對外漢語文化教學與設計 199 Learning Outcome).” in Evaluating the quality of learning. New York, NY: Academic Press, 1982. [8] Kumaravadivelu, Anoimo B., Culture Globalization and Language Education, New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 2017. 作者簡介： 程明，澳門科技大學國際學院博士研究生，研究領域為國際漢語教育，形式句法學，課程與教學論。 通訊地址：澳門科技大學國際學院 通訊電郵：cm4829456@vip.qq.com
202 The Journal Submission Guidelines of Macau University of Science and Technology (Revised in February 2023) 1. The Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology is a comprehensive academic publication, which covers in various fields, such as Humanities and Social Sciences, Natural Sciences, Engineering Technology, Traditional Chinese Medicine, Science and Technology, and Management. We welcome all professional manuscripts from different experts and scholars from home and abroad. 2. Make sure submit final version of manuscript. Once your manuscript is accepted for publication and received at the Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology no further changes can be made. 3. Do not submit papers to Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology if they have been published somewhere else, or are being considered for publication elsewhere. 4. Submit your paper only as a Word file. The article must use Traditional Chinese and English and cannot be over 30,000 words (except for the special article). The Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology is a Quarterly one published in March, June, September and December. 5. The article must provide no more than 500 words of Chinese and English abstract and five keywords. Define all non-standard abbreviations when they first appear. Remember to include a title, all author names and affiliations, and the corresponding author’s email address. 6. If your paper uses figures, tables, or parts of text that have been published elsewhere, you need permission from the copyright holder. Number tables and figures, ensure they all have a legend. Define the meaning of any bold or italic formatting in your tables. Figures should be high-resolution and in a common image format. (e.g. .eps or .tif) 7. All references should be readable and accurate. The article must need to follow the format references to the Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology style when you first submit your paper.
203 8. Include acknowledgements, conflict-of-interest declarations and details of funding sources and grant numbers at the end of your paper. Include the full funder name. Use author initials to indicate which authors received grants. 9. Include all supplementary data files, which is the application from, with your submission. Use Word’s ‘Insert equation’ and ‘Insert symbol’ functions to insert symbols or special characters. Do not use images. Times New Roman and Arial Unicode MS typically provide the widest range of symbols and special characters. 10. After we have reviewed your manuscript, we may ask for editable files, higher resolution figures, or edited files to fit journal style. 11. The article must follow the “Committee on Publication Ethics Rules”. If we have clear evidence that findings are plagiarism, unreliable, a result of major error, fabrication, falsification, or published elsewhere without proper attribution to previous sources or disclosure to the editor, permission to republish, or justification of article, the Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology will retract the further article. 12. We now use the new system for submission. The author should register and submit the article on the system. However, we still keep the email submission method. The author should attach the submission form and further necessary documents to the journal’s email: publication@must.edu.mo (please write information clearly as “date_author_article title”). We will reply to the author in ten days and confirm whether your article is accepted for the next stage or not. In general, the processing of articles will take around 30-40 working days. If we do not reply for over six months, the author can deal with it by himself. 13. The Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology has the final decision of publication, editorship and right of interpret for each article.
208 ⾹港電台(RTHK)，「Travelling with Water: Joseph LEE (I)」(與⽔同游/遊：李⾏ 偉 教 授 ) ， Our Scientists (English Version) ，https://podcast.rthk.hk/podcast/item.php?pid=1344&eid=105927&lang=zh-CN，瀏覽⽇期為 2022年 6⽉ 23⽇。 (2)英文書目之引用(Bibliography) † 英⽂徵引書⽬之引⽤需留意作者/譯者/編者名字先(First Name)⽽姓氏後(Last Name)。如遇多位作者，只需調整第⼀位作者即可。如出現四位或以上作者，於註釋第⼀作者後以 et al.表⽰，但在徵引書⽬必須詳列所有作者。 I. 西文專書(Books) Ø 作者—書名─版次 ed.─(出版地點: 出版公司, 出版年分)─⾴碼。 初引：Nathan Henry, The History of Fashion, 1500-1900, 2nd ed. (Hongkong: University of Hongkong Press, 2020), 50-80. 再引：Nathan, The History of Fashion, 1500-1900, 50-70. 徵引書⽬：Henry, Nathan. The History of Fashion, 1500-1900, 2nd ed. Hongkong: University of Hongkong Press, 2020. Ø 作者—書名—,ed./trans.編⁄譯者姓名—(出版地點: 出版公司,出版年分)—⾴碼。 初引：Walter Bagehot, The English Constitution, ed. Miles Taylor (Oxford: University of Oxford, 2001), 32-80. 再引：Bagehot, The English Constitution, 20-25. 徵引書⽬：Bagehot, Walter. The English Constitution. Edited, Miles Taylor. Oxford: University of Oxford, 2001. Ø 章節作者—“章節標題”—in 書名—,ed(s).編者—(出版地: 出版者, 年份)—⾴碼。（譯者亦如是—,trans譯者） 初引：Ina Zweiniger-Bargielowska, “Prince Philip: Sportsman and Youth Leader,” in The Man Behind the Queen: Male Consorts in History, eds. Charles Beem and Miles
209 Taylor. (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2014), 223-239. 再引：Ina Zweiniger-Bargielowska, “Prince Philip: Sportsman and Youth Leader,” 223-239. 徵引書⽬：Zweiniger-Bargielowska, Ina. “Prince Philip: Sportsman and Youth Leader.” in The Man Behind the Queen: Male Consorts in History. Eds. Charles Beem and Miles Taylor, 223-239. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2014. †只需調整單⼀章節作者即可，編者不需調整姓氏與名字次序。 II. 期刊論文(Journals and Articles) Ø 作者—“篇名,” —期刊名稱—期.卷數—(出版地:年份/⽉份)—:⾴數。 初引： Yan, Hao-Chen, Lam, Man-Yue, Lee, Joseph Hun-Wei, “Field Measurements and Numerical Modeling of Hydraulic Transients in HDPE Pipeline with PRV Interaction,” Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 147.6 (ASCE: 2021.06): 67. 再引：Yan, Hao-Chen, Lam, Man-Yue, Lee, Joseph Hun-Wei, “Field Measurements and Numerical Modeling of Hydraulic Transients in HDPE Pipeline with PRV Interaction,” 67. 徵 引 書 ⽬ ： Hao-Chen, Yan, Lam, Man-Yue, Lee, Joseph Hun-Wei, “Field Measurements and Numerical Modeling of Hydraulic Transients in HDPE Pipeline with PRV Interaction.” Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 147.6 (ASCE: 2021.06): 1-67. 研討會或論⽂集，未經正式出版之成果(Unpublished manuscripts, Lectures and Working papers)，引註如下： ◎作者—“篇名”—(研討會名稱/參與地:參與場所,⽇期)—⾴數。 初引： 1. David G. Harper, “The Several Discoveries of the Ciliary Muscle” (PowerPoint presentation, 25th Anniversary of the Cogan Ophthalmic History Society, Bethesda, MD, March 31,2012), 24. 2. Deborah D. Lucki and Richard W. Pollay, “Content Analyses of Advertising: A Review of the Literature” (working paper, History of Advertising Archives, Faculty of
210 Commerce, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, 1980), 46. 再引： 1. David G. Harper, “The Several Discoveries of the Ciliary Muscle”, 24. 2. Deborah D. Lucki and Richard W. Pollay, “Content Analyses of Advertising: A Review of the Literature”, 46. 徵引書⽬： 1. David G. Harper, “The Several Discoveries of the Ciliary Muscle” PowerPoint presentation, 25th Anniversary of the Cogan Ophthalmic History Society, Bethesda, MD, March 31,2012. 2. Deborah D. Lucki and Richard W. Pollay, “Content Analyses of Advertising: A Review of the Literature” Working paper, History of Advertising Archives, Faculty of Commerce, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, 1980. III. 電子書(Electronic Books) Ø 作者—書名—(出版地: 出版社,年份)—電⼦書類型—⾴數. 初引：John Jowett, et al, The Oxford Shakespeare: the Complete Works, 2nd ed, (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 2005), EPUB, 60. 再引：John Jowett, et al, The Oxford Shakespeare: the Complete Works, 2nd ed, EPUB, 60. 徵引書⽬：Jowett, John, William Montgomery, Gary Taylor, Stanley Wells. The Oxford Shakespeare: the Complete Works, 2nd ed. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 2005, EPUB. IV. 報紙(Newspapers) Ø 作者/機構—“標題”—報刊名稱—⽉⽇,年/期數—版數(如有)—URL/資料庫(如有). 初引：Georgina Rannard, “Five planets to line up in rare planetary conjunction” BBC News Climate & Science, June 24, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61910977 再引：Georgina Rannard, “Five planets to line up in rare planetary conjunction”, BBC News Climate & Science, June 24, 2022. 徵引書⽬：Rannard, Georgina, “Five planets to line up in rare planetary conjunction”
211 BBC News Climate & Science, June 24, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61910977. V. 碩博士學位論文(thesis and dissertations.) Ø 作者—“論⽂名稱” —章節—(碩/博⼠論⽂,畢業⼤學,年份)—⾴數—URL(如有). 初引：Melanie Subacus, “Duae Patriae: Cicero and Political Cosmopolitanism in Rome,” abstract (PhD diss., New York University, 2015), v, http://pqdtopen.pro quest.com/pubnum/3685917.html. 再引：Melanie Subacus, “Duae Patriae: Cicero and Political Cosmopolitanism in Rome,” abstract, v. 徵引書⽬：Subacus, Melanie, “Duae Patriae: Cicero and Political Cosmopolitanism in Rome.” PhD diss., New York University, 2015, http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/pubnum/3685917.html VI. 檔案與政府文件(public and Legal documents) Ø 作者—檔案匯編名稱/卷/冊數—(出版地: 出版商,年份)—⾴數. Ø 作者(如有)—檔案/⽂件名稱—⽇期(如有)—檔案/⽂件編號—收藏機構(如有)—⾴數(如有). 初引： 1. Arthur Christopher, Viscount Esher, The Letters of Queen Victoria: A Selection from Her Majesty’s Correspondent between the Years 1837-1861, Vol. III(London: John Murray, 1908, Published by Authority of Her Majesty the King), 163-178. 2. Act of Settlement, 1701,12 & 13 Will. 3, c. 2. 再引： 1. Arthur Christopher, Viscount Esher, The Letters of Queen Victoria: A Selection from Her Majesty’s Correspondent between the Years 1837-1861, Vol. III, 163-178. 2. Act of Settlement, 1701,12 & 13 Will. 3, c. 2. 徵引書⽬： 1. Christopher, Arthur, Viscount Esher. The Letters of Queen Victoria: A Selection from
212 Her Majesty’s Correspondent between the Years 1837-1861, Vol. III. London: John Murray, 1908, Published by Authority of Her Majesty the King. 2. Act of Settlement, 1701,12 & 13 Will. 3, c. 2. VII. 其他網絡資源(Websites resources) Ø 作者/機構/其他名稱—“標題” 網站名稱—瀏覽/最後修改⽇期—網址. 初引、再引與徵引書⽬： 1. Alliance for Linguistic Diversity, n.d. “Balkan Romani.” Endangered Languages. Accessed April 6,2016. http://www.endangeredlanguages.com/lang/5342. 2. Google. 2016. “Privacy Policy.” Privacy & Terms. Last modified March 25,2016. http://www.google.com/policies/privacy/.
