半年刊 2007年6月創刊第九卷 第一期 2015年6月出版JOURNAL OF MACAU UNIVERSITYOF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGYSemiannual, Started in June 2007Vol.9 No.1 June 2015定價: 20元澳門幣(人民幣/港幣)ISSN 1994-4926半年刊Semiannual Vol.9二 一五年 第九卷 第一期JOURNAL OF MACAU UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGYVol.9 No.1 June 2015
編輯委員會Editorial Board編委會主席：劉良Chairman of Editorial Board: Liu Liang主編 ：張曙光、許敖敖Chief Editors: Zhang Shu Guang, Xu Ao Ao編委：劉良、張曙光、許敖敖、祈務晨、余秋雨、張志慶、姜志宏、方泉、林偉基、戴龍基、黎曉平、蔡亞從、唐澤聖、陳乃九、龐川、孫立雲、孫建榮Editorial Board Members:Liu Liang, Zhang Shu Guang, Xu Ao Ao,Keith Robert Barclay Morrison, Yu Qiu Yu, Zhang Zhi Qing, Jiang Zhi Hong, Fang Quan, Lam Wai Kei, Dai Long Ji, Li Xiao Ping, Tsoi Ah Chung, Tang Ze Sheng, Chan Lai Kow, Pang Chuan, Sun Li Yun, Sun Jian Rong澳門科技大學學報Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology主辦單位: 澳門科技大學Organizer: Macau University of Science and Technology編委會主席: 劉良Chairman of Editorial Board: Liu Liang主編: 張曙光、許敖敖Chief Editors: Zhang Shu Guang, Xu Ao Ao編輯: 《澳門科技大學學報》編輯部Editor: The Editorial Department, Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology ● 電話： +853-8897-2173 Tel: +853-8897-2173 ● 傳真：+853-2888-0022 Fax: +853-2888-0022 ● 電郵：publication@must.edu.mo E-mail: publication@must.edu.mo ● 地址： 澳門科技大學 澳門氹仔偉龍馬路 Address: Macau University of Science and Technology, Avenida Wai Long, Taipa, Macau出版及總發行：澳門科技大學Publisher & Distribution: Macau University of Science and Technology ● 電話：+853-8897-2166 Tel: +853-8897-2166 ● 電郵：cbpsadmin@must.edu.mo E-mail: cbpsadmin@must.edu.mo ● 地址： 澳門科技大學 澳門氹仔偉龍馬路 Address: Macau University of Science and Technology, Avenida Wai Long, Taipa, Macau 封面及版式設計：高鴻 王港Graphic & Layout Designers: Gao Hong, Wang Gang印刷： 700本Print Run: 700出版日期：2015年6月Issued Date: June 2015國際標準期刊號：ISSN: 1994-4926規格： 21cm×29.7cmSize: 21cm width by 29.7cm height版權所有，翻印必究All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, or otherwise, without the prior consent of the publisher.
ContentsHumanities and ArtsThe Bidirectional Integrated Model of “Creative City” Transformation and Creative Industries In Macau …………………………………………………………………………………… Yan LIU (1)José Ángel Valente and Songs of Hibakusha ……………………………………………… Chingyu LIN (11)A Study of Factors Affecting Consumer Memory and Evaluation of Brand Placement in Movies ………………………………………………………………………………………… Di WANG (21)Analysis of Public Image of Hong Kong and Macau on the Drama in the New Period ………………………………………………………………………………… Yingfeng ZHENG (30)Pedagogica ExperienceThe Preliminary Study on the Performance Evaluation of General Education Teachers …………………………………………………………………… Wen-li CHENG, Shao-chi LI (38)Management and TourismMortgage Loan, Asset Size and Bank Risk-Taking …………………… Wenjie YANG, Shun-Ho CHU (44)How to Improve the Innovative Work Behavior of Young Employees in Macau:the Role of Self-efficacy ……………………………… Qing TIAN, Shuang CHEN, Hao ZHONG, Dafeng PENG (55)The Study of Insolvency Prediction Models for Chinese Property Insurance Companies …………………………………………………………………… Yiliu XIONG, Shianghau WU (74)Change of Ownership and Firms' Investment-cash Dependence: Empirical Analysis Based Chinese Listed Companies …………… Rufei MA, Pengxiang ZHAI (88)Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Adjustment of RMB: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis …………………………………………………………………… Xiaolei TANG, Jizhong ZHOU (97)Employee Voice Behavior :Review and Direction for Future Research …………………………………………………… Yanni ZHU, Yueyuan CHENG, Yingni LIU (107)Information TechnologyCalibration of Location Coordinates in Chang'E-2CCD Data ………………………………………… Zhi LI, Mengjie YE, Zhanchuan CAI,Zesheng TANG (117)
1第 9 卷 第 1 期 澳 門 科 技 大 學 學 報 Vol.9 No.12015 年 6 月 30 日 Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology June 30, 2015 澳門文化創意產業與“創意城市”轉型的 雙向融合模型劉 燕（澳門科技大學人文藝術學院，澳門；浙江傳媒學院管理學院，杭州）摘要： 創意產業與“創意城市＂的發展互相耦合，以發展創意產業來推動城市轉型是許多城市的戰略規劃手段之一，反之以發展“創意城市＂為願景有助於創意產業的可持續。本研究以澳門未來發展成“創意城市＂為設想，研究澳門文化創意產業與 “創意城市＂轉型二者的互動關係，通過紮根理論研究方法，建構出“四因素＂雙向融合模型。研究結果建議當前澳門亟需要實施一次“城市創新運動＂。關鍵詞： 創意產業；創意城市；雙向融合The Bidirectional Integrated Model of “Creative City” Transformation and Creative Industries In MacauYan LIU( Ph. D Candidate of Faculty of Humanities and Arts, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, China; Zhejiang University of Media and Communications, Hangzhou, China )AAstractt: Developing creative industries is interacted with the mission of “creative city”. Much more cities transform themselves as “creative cities”through creative industries development. Inverse, “creative cities” are beneficial to the sustainability of creative industries. The research applies grounded theory as methodology and methods to investigate the relationship between creative industries and “creative city” with supposing that Macau will evolve to be a “creative city” by developing creative industries. The research constructs “Four- elements” bidirectional integrated model of creative industries and “creative city”. It supports that Macau is urgent to implement a civil strategy of “city innovation and creativity”.eyyordst: Creative industries; Creative city; Bidirectional integrated model收稿日期：2014-10-17；修訂日期：2014-10-17。通訊作者：劉燕，女，在讀博士生，講師，主要研究方向：創意產業與城市發展。 E-mail: echonysweet@163.com，Tel: （+853）63590079、137571892980 引言自上世紀 90 年代“創意產業”的概念由澳大利亞首先提出以後，創意經濟、創意產業便因定位在藝術、商業和科技的交叉點上，及對貿易和交換更具開放性的優勢（UNCTAD，2004）[1]，而被世界各地大大小小的城市引入，成為許多城市和國家重要的支柱產業之一。2006 年“創意產業”的概念正式被澳門特區政府引入，“文化創意產業”（簡稱文創產業）開始作為澳門經濟適度多元化的重點項目發展，以推進澳門從博彩業一支獨大的經濟形態向多元經濟轉型。從世界許多大城市如倫敦、東京、紐約、布
9劉燕 澳門文化創意產業與“創意城市”轉型的 雙向融合模型上有所創新。許多遊客對澳門博彩集團建築群的瑰麗輝煌與澳門破舊街頭形成的鮮明對比而驚訝，這些舊的城市空間亟待“澳門性”的創意來啟動，也正是創意管治與文創產業互動融合的結合點。實施創意管治時，管治者在珍視澳門獨特的“中西文化合璧”的“文化意義”時，重點要激發行業的商業潛力，轉向“文化意義的創意研發”上，推動文創產業真正走向產業，促進城市創意化。致 謝感謝歐洲社會基金的博士生研究與國際化朵拉項目，及其執行方阿基米德基金會的支持。（This research was supported by European Social Fund’s Doctoral Studies and internationallisation Programme DoRa, which is carried out by Foundation Archimedes.）參 考 文 獻[1] UNCTAD. Creative industries and development[R]. Washington, DC: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), 2004.[2] 曾軍，陳鳴，朱洪舉.創意城市：文化創造世界.上海：上海人民出版社，2010：61-63.[3] 林如鵬，符翩翩.澳門文創產業的發展前景與規劃.新聞與傳播研究，2011（5）：99-105.[4] 楊宜勇，董進修.澳門文化產業前景與定位研究.文化現代化的戰略思考——第七期中國現代化研究論壇論文集，2009年，北京中關村8月7-9日.北京：中國科學院中國現代化研究中心，2009（91-97）.[5] 王鵬.澳門博彩業與文化產業的融合互動研究.旅遊學刊，2010，25（6）： 57-65.[6] 齊永峰，陳曼東.澳門經濟結構調整和政府作用研究——兼論澳門文創產發展.城市觀察，2011（4）：167-169.[7] 楊允中，鄧思平，楊開荊等. 樹品牌意識，走精品路線—關於發展澳門文化產業的若干思考與建議（大型研究報告）.澳門：澳門學者同盟出版，2009：253-256.[8] 蘇武江 .澳門文創產業發展路徑研究 .科技管理研究，2 0 1 2（24）：64-68.[9] CUNNINGHAM, STAUART D. From cultural to creative industries: theory, industry, and policy implications. Media International Australia Incorporating Culture and Policy: Quarterly Journal of Media Research and Resources, 2002, 102: 54-65.[10] FOORD, JO. Strategies for creative industries: an international review. Creative Industries Journal, 2009 (1): 91-113.[11] UNCTAD. Creative economy report: The challenge of assessing the creative economy towards informed policy-making[R]. Washington, DC: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). UN, 2008.[12] 同[1][13] EVANS, GRAEME. Creative cities, creative spaces and urban policy. Urban studies, 2009, 46(5-6): 1003-1040.[14] KALANDIDES, A. & LANGE, B. . Creativity as a synecdoche of the city-marketing the creature Berlin. When Creative Industries Crossover with Cities, 2nd-3rd April, 2007, Hongkong. Hongkong: the Hongkong Institute of Planners & Urban Planning society of China, 2007.[15] MARCUS, CARMEN. Future of creative industries: implications for research policy[M]. Brussels: European Commission, 2005:14.[16] QUINN, B., Arts festivals and the city. Urban studies, 2005, 42: 927-943.[17] ZUKIN, S.. Loft living: culture and capital in urban change. New Brunswick, N.J.: Rutgers University Press, 1989.[18] BAYCAN. Creative Cities: context and perspectives in the book of Sustainable City and Creativity Edited by Luigi Fusco Girard, Tüzin Baycan, and Peter Nijkamp. Surrey Farnham: Ashgate Publishing, 2011：23.[19] GERTLER, MERIC S. Creative cities: what are they for, how do they work, and how do we build them?[R]. Ottawa：Canadian Policy Research Networks: Background Paper F/48, 2004.[20] UNESCO, UNDP. Creative economy report: widening local development pathways[R].Paris：UNDP and UNESCO (special edition), 2013.[21] BRADFORD, NEIL. Creative cities: structured policy dialogue backgrounder[R]. Ottawa: Canadian Policy Research Network INc, 2004.[22] LANDRY, CHARLES. The creative city: a toolkit for urban innovators. London: Earthscan, 2000：134-136.[23] SASSEN, S.. The global city: New York, London, Tokio. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001：332.[24] 同[18][25] TÖRNQUIST, GUNNAR. Creativity and the renewal of regional life. Creativity and context: A seminar report. 1983, 50: 91-112.[26] 同[23][27] WU. Weiping. Dynamic cities and creative clusters [M].Washington, DC: World Bank, Development Research Group, 2005:15-17.[28] 同[20][29] PORTER, M., & STERN, S.，Location matters. Sloan Management Review, 2001, 42 (4): 29.[30] MUSTERD, S & OSTENDORF. W.. Creative cultural knowledge cities: perspectives and planning strategies. Built Environment, 2004, 30(3): 189-193.[31] 同[20][32] JONES,T. Cultural Districts[C]. When Creative Industries Crossover with Cities, 2nd-3rd April, 2007, Hongkong. Hongkong: the Hongkong Institute of Planners & Urban Planning society of China, 2007.[33] MUSTERD, S & OSTENDORF. W.. Creative cultural knowledge cities: perspectives and planning strategies. Built Environment, 2004, 30(3): 189-193.[34] FLORIDA, R..The rise of the creative class and how it’s transforming work, life, community and everyday life [M]. New York: Perseus Book Group, 2003:23-26.[35] 蘭德利著，楊幼蘭譯.創意城市：如何打造都市創意生活圈[M].北
10京：清華大學出版社，2009：51.[36] 同[16].[37] RICHARDS, G., & WILSON, J., Developing creativity in tourist experiences: a solution to the serial reproduction of culture?. Tourism management, 2006, 27(6): 1209-1223.[38] CROOKS, D. L.. The importance of symbolic interaction in grounded theory research on women's health. Health Care for Women International,2001,22(1-2):11-27.[39] GLASER, B. G.. Theoretical sensitivity: advances in the methodology of grounded theory. Mill Valley: The Sociology Press, 1978:2.[40] DENZIN, NORMANK & LINCOLN, YVONNAS（Eds). Hand book of qualitative research [M]. Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications, 1994.[41] GLASER, B.G.. The grounded theory perspective: conceptualisation contrasted with Description. Mill Valley: Sociology Press, 2001.[42] 費小東.紮根理論研究方法論：要素、研究程式和評判標準.公共行政評論，2008（3）：23-43.[43] 卡麥茲著，邊國英譯.建構紮根理論：質性研究實踐指南.重慶：重慶大學出版社，2009：61.[44] HOSPERS,G.J. Creative Cities in Europe：Urban competitiveness in the knowledge economy. Intereconomic，2003, 38 (5) :260-269.[45] 澳門統計暨普查局.總體失業率[EB/OL].[2014-08-04] http://www.dsec.gov.mo/default.aspx.[46] 同[14][47] 同[11].學生活動澳科大代表隊榮獲2015香港物流學藝比賽季軍為加強大學與香港高校間的學藝交流，進一步拓展澳科大商學院本科生的國際視野，商學院決策科學系於3月21日組織供應鏈管理專業的學生前往香港參加由香港物流與運輸協會主辦的物流學藝比賽。此屆物流學藝比賽，除了澳科大代表隊之外，還有香港八支高校隊伍參加。並且，香港的參賽大學均已獲國際CILT課程認證，澳門科技大學是唯一一支來自香港以外獲邀的參賽隊伍。在兩岸四地高校中，香港高校在物流與供應鏈管理領域一直具有明顯的優勢。此屆比賽我校代表隊雖然面臨香港大學、香港科技大學、香港中文大學與香港理工大學這樣的傳統強隊，但是憑藉近半年的刻苦訓練、不畏強敵，為現場評審、各校帶隊老師以及觀眾呈現了令人驚喜的表現。最終力克群雄，獲得了季軍，總得分僅次於香港中文大學（冠軍）和香港大學（亞軍）。澳科大學生榮獲“21世紀·路勁杯”全國三等獎6月7日，在北京大學國家發展研究院舉行的第三屆“21世紀·路勁杯”互聯網金融創新案例大賽中，澳門科技大學商學院4位同學以及1位校友組成的MUST Dream 創業團隊，經過北京大學國家發展研究院、21世紀傳媒、路勁集團、中國金融四十人論壇專家學者組成的評審委員會三輪嚴格評審後，進入全國前6強，最終榮獲優秀論文全國三等獎。是次比賽全國總決賽的評委高度讚揚了澳科大獲獎作品並鼓勵獲獎學生積極發揚創新創業的精神。“21世紀·路勁杯”互聯網金融創新案例大賽，是由21世紀路勁財經獎學金班組織，21世紀傳媒聯合北京大學國家發展研究院、路勁集團以及中國金融四十人論壇共同發起的案例競賽，旨在培養高校學生對於互聯網、新媒體、金融、房地產等領域的興趣，強化商業案例分析能力和創新創業能力。獲獎學生將有機會參與北京大學主辦的21世紀路勁財經獎學金班的各項活動。參與此次比賽的院校有北京大學、清華大學、復旦大學、中山大學、上海財經大學等大陸知名高校。澳科大國際學院葡萄牙語專業學生朗誦比賽獲獎第十屆澳門高校葡萄牙語詩歌朗誦比賽於3月25日晚假澳門理工學院拉開帷幕，除本澳高校：澳門理工學院、澳門科技大學及澳門大學外，來自內地的廣東外語外貿大學、上海外國語大學、浙江外國語學院以及大連外國語大學也派出學生參加比賽。經過激烈的角逐，澳科大國際學院葡萄牙語專業大二的兩位學生奪得九枚獎牌中的兩枚，為所有參賽學校之冠，其中1名同學更脫穎而出，獲得中級組冠軍，另一名同學獲得了初級組季軍。賽後，科大學生的表現及葡語教學的發展得到澳門各界的一致好評，澳門論壇報等葡語報刊也就此次活動作出了報導。
11第 9 卷 第 1 期 澳 門 科 技 大 學 學 報 Vol.9 No.12015 年 6 月 30 日 Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology June 30, 2015 荷西‧安赫爾‧瓦倫特與被爆者之歌林青俞（澳門科技大學國際學院，澳門）摘要： 本篇論文探討西班牙50年代詩人荷西•安赫爾•瓦倫特 (José Ángel Valente) 的作品“Hibakusha＂(被爆者)，以二次大戰原子彈轟炸日本廣島的歷史為題材，結合美學、藝術、與哲學思想，呈現原爆文學的諸多特點。首先，災難的歷史見證下，詩歌結構跨越時空，傳達受害者與加害者之多重敘述之聲，並逐漸模糊兩者身分的界線。其次，運用豐富的語言內在經驗，表現被爆者身體與原爆土地之間共生的神祕空間。最後，詩歌賦予道德的想像力，藉由核武器揭示歷史中人性的犬儒主義。關鍵詞： 荷西•安赫爾•瓦倫特；被爆者；原爆文學；詩歌；語言；身體José Ángel Valente and Songs of HiAakushaChingyu LIN( Macau University of Science and Technology, University International College, Macau, China )AAstractt: The present study aims to analyze“Hibakusha”, a poem by José Ángel Valente, a Spanish poet of the Generation of the 50s. Based on the history of the Hiroshima atomic bombing in World War II, the poem represents various features of Atomic Bomb Literature, combining aesthetics, art and philosophy. First of all, with the historical witness of disaster, the poetic structure is constructed across time and space in order to transmit multiple voices of both victims and perpetrators. It blurs the boundaries between these two identities in a gradual way. Secondly, by making use of language´s inner experiences, it produces a symbiotic and mysterious space between hibakusha´s body and the explosion on land. Finally, the poem renders moral imagination, revealing human cynicism in history through nuclear weapons. eyyordst: José Ángel Valente; Hibakusha; Atomic Bomb Literature; Poetry; Language; Body收稿日期：2014-10-28；修訂日期：2014-12-10。作者資訊：林青俞，女，博士。主要研究方向：西語國家文學。Email:cylin@must.edu.mo電話：00853-889720610 引言西班牙 1939 年至 1975 年佛朗哥獨裁政權是一段不可抹滅的歷史記憶，也是二十世紀文學作品的重要題材，其中西班牙 50 年代詩歌深刻反映此時期的政治迫害與人民生存的恐懼，詩人們開始思索語言的本質，將社會壓抑之聲融入哲學思維與藝術表現，文字不再只是描述極權專制下個體或集體遭受的苦痛，而是必須透過物質，詮釋內在的精神空間，換句話說，這個時期的詩歌特點將物質內在化，對萬物等同視之，呈現觀者進入物體的神聖顯像過程，如同藝術家藉由各種材料塑造不同形狀、顏色、與材質的作品，無論巨大或微小，皆能以有形之物帶領觀者進入無形之精神世界。由於 50 年代詩歌對語言的另一番新的詮釋深深影響日後的詩歌發展，在現代文學評論中佔有極為重要的地位。荷西 ‧ 安赫爾 ‧ 瓦倫特 (José Ángel Valente) 是 50 年代最具獨特風格的詩人代表之一。1929 年
13林青俞 荷西‧安赫爾‧瓦倫特與被爆者之歌轉換至聲音，重述“他們”對文字書寫所提出的疑惑：文學能夠重現這段發生在奧斯威辛集中營之殘酷歷史嗎？瓦倫特在散文作品《部落的文字》Las palabras de la tribu 裡提及德國哲學家阿多諾(Theodor Adorno) 的主張：“在奧斯威辛之後寫詩是一種野蠻行徑”[6] ，顯然此時敘述者間接回應了這個問題，無論是納粹屠殺猶太人或廣島原爆，書寫這些創傷記憶並非不適宜，而是具有相當的挑戰性，由於創傷主體之內在世界的特徵是“分離的記憶”[7]，文學因而必須藉由這些非具體、非連貫、甚至非表現的元素描繪戰爭下的悲慘世界，瓦倫特對此難題解了套，他在作品中刻意運用混亂重疊的敘述之聲，表現破碎支解的張力，將個體意識串連至群體表述，打破時間與空間的限制，昨日之景夾雜今日對歷史的評斷，鞏固災難文學書寫的價值與正當性。作品中群體的敘述者“我們”分飾多角，時而代表幸存之被爆者，時而代表往生者，換言之，整部作品運用聲音交織成一個生命與死亡齊聲吶喊的國度。以下的詩句片段說明此種敘述手法：有人必須不停地死去哪個受害者？為何是這個人，是誰選上他們，卻不想知道抉擇比死亡更猥褻？為何是我們？亡者只是這麼說。[3]235 無人稱敘述者是過去、現在、與未來的共同發言人，歷史必定與未來連結，除了影射原爆陰影下世代子孫的宿命，也回溯人類過去面對戰爭的抉擇，於是，亡者的質問聲出現，卻困惑無解，沒有回應，沒有答案，雖然打破沉默，最終只能接受。瓦倫特對詩歌語言的認知與西班牙無形式主義大師安東尼 ‧ 塔皮埃斯 (Antoni Tàpies) 極為契合，這位巴塞隆納藝術家擅長融合傳統與現代技法，並在作品中混和大量材料，儘管是廢棄老舊或不起眼的素材，都能創造出全新的藝術語言，因為創作的世界中不存在所謂的劣等材料。瓦倫特認為詩詞必須像塔皮埃斯手裡的材料一般，“享有同樣的自由，同樣的去功能性”[8]，於是，遵循這個平等的理念，他在詩歌文體中加入英文俗語表達，再以集體敘述者人稱表述：之後We are all now sons of a bitch，他們試射了就在西班牙士兵命名的地方亡靈征戰之地為了最後不讓名字與事物被拆穿。[…]Babies satisfactorily born, 失明者說道因偉大的 Oppius 與其豐功偉業。[3]236本段的英文短句清楚地闡明原爆事件中美國人的角色，同時暗示投下原子彈的決定對人類歷史導致的結果[9]。“我們”的敘述者以加害人身份，赤裸裸地表達強烈的罪惡感，這讓我們聯想到日本 60 年代的原爆文學，跳出民族主義的狹小範疇[10]，首度出現日本文學史上第一部以原爆加害者為主人公的作品：飯田桃 1965年的短篇小說《美國的英雄》。雖然詩詞無法發揮小說巨細靡遺地刻劃人物的功能，瓦倫特運用詩歌文體最精髓的音韻，不加掩飾地抒發加害者面對過去與現在的心聲。這句英文俗語證明詩人跨越原爆歷史與文學的單一面向，強化詩歌語言的延展性，不堆砌華麗詞藻，不加雕琢修飾，此為發自內心的省思。事實上，雙語聲音嵌入的手法也象徵一種包容的力量，瓦倫特在散文作品《致安東尼 ‧ 塔皮埃斯的五個片斷》(Cinco fragmentos para Antoni Tàpies) 開頭便強調，“創作不是一個權力的行為，是一個接受與認可的行為。創作帶有女性的符號”[3]41。
14然而必須澄清的是，這個接納包容的定義並非用來闡釋瓦倫特對原爆加害者罪行的立場，而是取決語言本身融合異己的特質，也因為如此，失明的原爆者脫口而出“Babies satisfactorily born”，此乃日本受害者之聲？或是生活在當地的美國人？聲音瞬間消弭種族藩籬，不再作為身份辨識的唯一途徑，加害者與被害者合而為一。另外，它也諷刺廣島核爆導致許多懷孕母親流產或生出畸形兒的殘酷事實，最後以 Oppius 稱呼參與原子彈試射的科學家 Oppenheimers，重申核武發展威脅人類生存權利的議題。 2 身體與空間瓦倫特的詩歌世界裡，語言文字如同藝術作品的材料，形狀是虛無的定義，因為任何有形之物的誕生最終走向無形之路。他在散文作品《如何畫一條龍》(Cómo se pinta un dragón) 引述西班牙十六世紀神祕主義詩人聖十字若望 (San Juan de la Cruz) 之代表作《精神頌歌》(Cántico espiritual)其中的詩句：“你永遠不會滿足於你所理解的事，[…] 而是你不理解的事”[3]9，他認為詩歌創作逃離時間的概念，它不歸屬於現在，反而直接進入回憶，傳達毀壞與碎裂的語言經驗，顯然無法用理性邏輯分析解釋。換句話說，語言本質上是無能的，是貧瘠的，它像支離破碎的記憶，無法概括完整的景象，它圍繞在荒涼寂寥的神祕空間，而這個空間包含人與大地的關聯性，瓦倫特認為只有沙漠的語言才能融合生命與死亡。“Hibakusha”將語言空間、土地與身體緊密連結，不乏日本廣島原爆詩歌最典型的描繪景象：水與乾渴。從地理位置來看，廣島南方面向瀨戶內海，連接六條河川，故稱為“水城”，因此，廣島詩人常以水作為城市的意象。原子彈爆炸後，人民猶如置身於沙漠，除了必須忍受火燒的皮肉之苦，甚至害怕喝了被汙染的水而生病，街上到處是乞討水喝的難民。這般煉獄景象呈現在原民喜家喻戶曉的詩歌作品《請給我水》：請給我水啊！請給我水讓我喝水還是死掉得好死了更好[…]夜幕降臨乾澀的眼睛潰爛的嘴唇火辣辣的痛。[11]原民喜以寫實的筆觸再現原爆者乾渴的身體，瓦倫特則運用豐富的色彩與象徵手法，描述污染的土地和雨水，大火燎原之後，或許天降甘霖，但空中的水氣混著輻射塵，形成黑雨，幸存者的身體如同這片枯竭之地，因為極度口渴，飲用這些雨水，幾日之後就會死亡。此外，除了飲水，不慎接觸黑雨，日後也會產生諸多後遺症。井伏鳟二 1966 的長篇小說《黑雨》是廣島原爆小說最具代表性的作品，其中描述女主角在逃難途中淋了黑雨，數年後原子病發作。相較之下，瓦倫特不以寫實風格描寫原爆後降下的雨水，反而增添更多美學想像空間：白色之光變橙黃色燃燒空氣堅硬的外殼翡翠綠的酸水覆蓋旱地。[…]光芒下陰暗的身軀灰燼蓋上一層灰我們飲盡塵土只剩殘渣與結束艾諾拉•蓋伊號轟炸機。[…]之後是水之後是雨
19林青俞 荷西‧安赫爾‧瓦倫特與被爆者之歌毀滅行為的想像啟發讀者：“人的身體 / 比天還高 / 你對自己做了什麼”？[3]239受害者的身體隨著爆炸燃燒的威力衝向天際，加害者在高處或在遠處看不清楚城市如何被催毀，雙方都必須捫心自問：對自己做了什麼？對人民又做了什麼？ 身為非原爆直接受難國的西班牙，佛朗哥獨裁時期，基於政治因素，極欲發展成一個擁有核武器的國家，除了使西班牙享有聯合國投票權，也能支持佛朗哥政權在歐洲的地緣戰略[27]。瓦倫特藉由陳述日本原爆的歷史，引導出佛朗哥專制政權下倫理道德的省思，它被視為另一種談論西班牙歷史的方式，原爆者不僅代表日本廣島或長崎的居民，也可能是任何一個佛朗哥獨裁時期被犧牲的人，或任何遭受強權侵略殘害的民族。一言以蔽之，瓦倫特在東洋血淚史中找到書寫人性與道德的勇氣。4 結論被爆者之歌的文學價值不在於寫實記錄，而在於它背後堅持存在的意志，面對殘酷的原爆災難，瓦倫特的詩歌語言勾勒出歷史創傷下個體與集體意識，多重敘述之聲模糊被害者與加害者身分的界線，跨越生命與死亡的國度，幸存者與亡者共同發聲，除此之外，更包容不同的語言特質，展現詩歌內在的聚合力，儘管戰爭削弱語言，使其匱乏短缺，然而，終究走向沉默的語言卻成為領悟真實最有力的武器，西班牙文學思想家瑪麗亞 ‧ 桑布拉諾 (María Zambrano) 對此提出極具啟發性的觀點：無法開口說出，是因為太過真實，儘管如此，這個不能開口說的真實必須透過書寫表達。[28]原爆的歷史將人民與土地緊密連結，被爆者身體是大地的縮影，詩人運用豐富的象徵與西方神祕主義美學描繪乾渴的身體與土地，並影射日本民族恐懼並渴望救贖的心理，一方面，重新詮釋日本原爆文學的題材與精髓，另一方面，探索詩歌建立的內在語言經驗。更重要的是，以死亡意識作為前提，語言如同身體燃燒後的塵土灰燼，如同生命回歸大地，從毀滅至重生，不斷輪迴翻轉，為這段歷史記憶留下創傷後的尊嚴。核彈是高度文明與智慧的結晶，卻也反映人類永不停止的好戰本質，利用高科技武器渴望主宰他人之命運，創造所謂不平凡的歷史。瓦倫特的被爆者之歌暗指二次大戰原爆歷史在被害者與加害者身上顯現不同的神之形象，被爆者歷經生死存亡之際，末世景象歷歷在目，向上帝乞求，訴說內心的無助與恐懼，喚起犧牲與救贖的宗教精神。相反地，另一種神的形象也蠢蠢欲動，歌頌民族戰亂下的英雄主義，卻深藏人性虛偽懦弱的一面，從高空俯視大地，操控尖端武器，死亡的真相模糊遠離，因此一切都變得容易。瓦倫特的“被爆者”跨越了種族、語言、文化、與時空的藩籬，發揮道德的想像力，為原爆文學注入一股新的力量，為今日的反核時代貢獻人文關懷。 參 考 文 獻[1] Lifton, R. J. Death in Life: Survivor of Hiroshima. Chapel:University of North Carolina Press, 1991: 7 [2] Sloterdijk, P. Esferas III, Madrid, Siruela, 2006: 291. [3] Valente, J.A. Obra poética 2, Madrid, Alianza, 2001: 234. [4] Scarry, E. The Body in Pain: The Making and Unmaking of the World. New York: Oxford University Press, 1985: 161. [5] 蘇珊‧桑塔格. 《旁觀他人之痛苦》， 陳耀成 譯，台北：麥田，2010:36. [6] Valente, J.A. Obras completas II. Ensayos, Barcelona: Galaxia, 2008: 177.[7] Radstone, S. «Trauma Theory: Contexts, Politics, Ethics». Paragraph, 2007, 30, 1: 20. [8] Valente, J.A. «Escriptura sobre cos», Comunicación sobre el muro. Barcelona, Ediciones de la Rosa Cúbica, 2004: 59.[9] Hart, A.M. «Multiplicidad de diálogos en Al dios del lugar de Valente», Moenia, 6, 2000:137.[10] 李軍《文化視角下日本作家的原爆認知》，東北師大學報，2011，1: 127.[11] Treat, J. W. Writing Ground Zero. Japanese Literature and the Atomic Bomb. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1995: 170-171.[12] Grey, S. H. «Writing Redemption: Trauma and the Authentication of the Moral Order in Hibakusha Literature». Text and Performance Quarterly, 22, 2002: 13. [13] Peinado Elliot, C. «Arquitectura y fragmento. Análisis de El fulgor de José Ángel Valente», Revista de literatura, LXV 130, 2003: 198.[14] Agamben, G. Lo abierto: el hombre y el animal. Valencia: Pre-Textos, 2005: 101-102.
20[15] Rilke, R. M. Las elegías de Duino. México: Cantauro, 1945: 65.[16] Valcarcel, E. José Ángel Valente o el hombre habituado. Cuadernos de estudios gallegos, XL, 1992: 248. [17] 鶴見俊輔《戰爭時期日本精神史1931-1945》，邱振瑞譯，台北：行人，2007：220.[18] Martín Ortega, E. El lugar de la palabra. Ensayo sobre Cábala y poesía contemporánea, Cálamo, Palencia, 2013: 281.[19] Eberhart, R. «Aesthetics After War». Undercliff, New York: Oxford University Press, 1953: 57.[20] García Montero, L. «Un problema de imaginación». InfoLibre, 2013. 08. 25. http://www.infolibre.es/noticias/opinion/2013/08/25/un_problema_imaginacion_7053_1023.html[21] 永井隆《長崎和平鐘聲》，賴振南譯，台北：上智，2008:136. [22] Hersey, J. Hiroshima. New York: Vintage, 1946: 29.[23] Sloterdijk, P. Crítica de la razón cínica, Madrid: Siruela, 2011: 332.[24] Sankichi, T. Poems of the Atomic Bomb. Translated by Karen Thornber. https://ceas.sites.uchicago.edu/sites/ceas.uchicago.edu/files/uploads/Sibley/Genbaku%20shishu.pdf [25] Peinado Elliot, C. Unidad y trascendencia. Sevilla: Alfar, 2002: 112. [26] Salinas, P. Todo más claro y otros poemas. Buenos Aires : Editorial Sudamericana, 1949: 137-138. [27] Villatoro, M.P. «El misterio de la bomba atómica que quiso fabricar Franco». ABC, 2013.03.08. http://www.abc.es/archivo/20130308/abci-bomba-atomica-franco-201303071834.html [28] Zambrano, M. Esencia y hermosura. Barcelona: Galaxia Gutemberg, 2009: 309. 科研進展澳科大太空所再獲重要科技成果由中國地質大學（武漢）、澳門科技大學、中科院電子所和國家天文台等單位共同完成的 “嫦娥三號”探月工程最新探測成果，已於3月13日在國際頂尖學術期刊《Science》上發表，這是澳科大近三年來第三次在世界超一流學術雜誌上揚名。2013年12月15日，“嫦娥三號”著陸器攜“玉兔”月球車成功著陸在月球“雨海”區域。其中著陸器上搭載了降落相機、地形地貌相機、月基天文望遠鏡和極紫外相機；“玉兔”號月球車上搭載了全景相機、測月雷達、紅外成像光譜儀和粒子激發X射線譜儀。月球車的主要任務是獲取行走路線沿途的地形地貌數據、月壤的成分數據和測月雷達數據，完成月表形貌與地質構造和月表物質成分調查，探測次表層地質結構等科學目標。這篇文章利用降落相機、全景相機和測月雷達獲得的探測數據，結合對以往月球環繞衛星遙感影像和光譜數據的解譯，首次揭示了雨海北部的形貌和地質結構。這一成果顯示，雨海經歷的火山事件和撞擊改造及空間風化事件異常複雜，需要重新思考月球的火山地質與熱演化歷史，具有重要的科學意義。據悉，這是我國嫦娥探月工程實施以來，首次在國際頂級學術期刊上發表科學論文，展示了我國在載荷研製、工程實施、數據處理和月球科學研究方面的高水平。澳科大太空科學研究所的學者們正在繼續深入分析研究“嫦娥三號”著陸器所獲取的其他數據資料，力爭得到更多高水平的學術成果。期望相關成果將在推進澳門特區科技水平的快速提升方面產生重要作用。澳科大中醫藥研究成果獲教育部自然科學一等獎澳門科技大學的中醫藥研究團隊， 繼獲得2012年度國家科技進步獎之後，再次獲得國家重大獎項——2014年度國家教育部高等學校科學研究優秀成果獎—自然科學獎一等獎，這是以澳門教研機構為第一完成單位而獲得的首個該類獎項。在“中醫藥整體治療的網絡調節機理研究”獲獎項目中，該研究團隊基於中醫藥理論，從中藥的功效和活性成分出發，以網絡調節為導向，集成了化學、藥理學、細胞與分子生物學、系統生物學、生物學、生物信息學、電子計算機技術等多學科的前沿技術， 從中藥複方製劑、藥效組分、單體化合物多個層面研究了中藥網絡調節的整合作用與機理， 在國際主流科學期刊發表了一批高水平的研究論文並受到廣泛引用，首次提出了多靶點網絡調節藥物研發和個體化隨機對照藥物臨床試驗的新模式，並且應用多種組學技術闡釋了中藥複合化學成分細胞保護作用的分子網絡調節機理，為發展中醫藥整體和複方治療（特別是治療複雜病理的系統性疾病）提供了科學依據和建立了理論基礎。
21第 9 卷 第 1 期 澳 門 科 技 大 學 學 報 Vol.9 No.12015 年 6 月 30 日 Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology June 30, 2015 Received 26 Mar. 2015; Revised 24 Apr. 2015Corresponding author: Di WANG, assistant professor at Macau University of Science and Technology. She is interested in media and consumer behavior, political communicate and new media. Email: dwang@must.edu.mo, Tel: 00853-88971965.A Study of Factors Affecting Consumer Memory and Evaluation of Brand Placement in MoviesDi WANG( Department of Humanity and Art, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, China )AAstractt: This study examined the factors affecting the recall rate of brand placements and the evaluation of brand placements in movies using an experiment. Two moderators of the effect of brand placement on brand recall were examined in this study, movie genre and the modality of brand placement. Findings showed that science fiction movies were superior than real life movies on the recall of placements for only some modes of brand placements. Dual modes (both visual and audio) of brand placements produced better recall rate with aid than single mode brand placements, though no substantial recall differences were found between visual only and audio only placements. Contrary to our prediction, people who watched movies more frequently did not find brand placements more acceptable than those who watched movies less frequently.eyyordst: Brand placement; Movie genre; Modality影響消費者對植入廣告的記憶與評價因素的研究王 迪（澳門科技大學人文藝術學院，澳門）摘要： 本研究採用實驗的方法檢驗哪些因素可以影響消費者對電影中植入廣告的記憶比率以及哪些因素可以影響消費者對電影中植入廣告的態度。本研究檢測了植入廣告對品牌記憶的影響的兩個調節變數，電影類型和植入廣告的形式。 結果顯示科幻片中的植入廣告比現實主義電影中的植入廣告更容易被人記住，但這個結論僅限於特定形式的植入廣告。雙重形式（既有視頻又有音訊）的植入廣告比單一形式的植入廣告更容易被記住，而人們對只有視頻和只有音訊的植入廣告的記憶並沒有區別。與我們的預測相反，經常看電影的人沒有比不經常看電影的人更接受植入廣告。關鍵詞： 植入廣告；電影類型；形式0 Introduction Brand placements nowadays are appearing in almost all kinds of movies, whether it is fictional or realistic. For instance, in the latest Transformers movie, Age of Extinction, we see a character transformed into a Lenovo computer. In the movie Maid in Manhattan, we see the main actor asking her son to “Google it.” As brand placements are getting more and more popular, the next question is whether
22brand placements are effective and if so, what factors could increase its effectiveness.Studying brand recall is the first step in studying the effect of brand placement. After viewing a movie, if a person can recall the brand being placed in the movie, we can further investigate whether the brand placement will increase the person’s favorability towards the brand, and accordingly, whether the placement would increase the person’s consumption of the brand. On the other hand, if a person cannot recall the brand being placed in the movie, no further effect should be discussed (with the exception of subliminal priming). Two moderators of the effect of brand placement on brand recall will be examined in this study, movie genre and the modality of brand placement. Movie genre could affect the prominence of brand placement and accordingly, affect brand recall rate. As brands are realistic products or services, it could be argued that brand placements in science fiction movies will be more prominent than those in the realistic movies as they could stand out from the fictional environment. The modality of brand placement can also affect the prominence of brand placement. Brand placements that utilized both visual and audio stimuli should be most prominent, and accordingly produce higher recall rate than brand placements that used only audio or only video. Literature is mixed on whether video only or audio only brand placement will produce the higher recall rate. Thus this study shall explore which mode of brand placement is better recalled. If a brand placement is successfully recalled, the next step is to understand whether it is positively received or negatively received. Gupta and Gould found that in general, consumers who watch movies more often found brand placements more acceptable than those who do not watch movies as often. Whether the finding is true needs to be tested[1].To sum up, in this study, we focus on two factors that could potentially affect the recall rate of brand placements in movies, movie genre and brand placement mode. In addition, we also want to find out what factors could influence the favorability of brand placements in movies. 1 Literature revieyBrand placement refers to “the paid inclusion of branded products or brand identifiers, through audio and/or visual means, within mass media programming[2].” It is also called product placement in some articles. Because it is generally a particular brand rather than a product (Ray Bans vs. sunglasses) that is highlighted, more and more academic studies began to adopt the term “brand placement”[3~4].Brand placement can be categor ized by prominence. Prominent placements are placements in which product or brand identifiers are made highly visible by size or position on the screen or placements that are central to the action of the actors in the scene, while subtle placements are those in which placements are not shown prominently, small in size, or in a background prop outside the main field of visual focus, lost in array of multiple products or objects, or having low time exposure[5]. Some studies found prominent placements are better recalled than subtle ones[5], while others found the reversed effect[6]. The reverse finding on prominence and recall has been explained as d’Astous and Chartier asked participants to watch only brand placements in each movie scene, hence more effort was put to processing less prominent placements than in a normal viewing situation in which audiences watched the full movie at one time[6]. If their explanation is true, then prominent placements are better recalled than subtle ones in a normal movie viewing condition.Movie genre could also affect the prominence of brand placements. Of the different genres of movies, science fiction movies are considered to be one of most difficult to implement brand placement as the majority of their settings are not closely related real life. However, if successful implemented, brand placements in science fiction movies are also considered more prominent than in real life movies as they stand out from the fictional environment. Garza (2003)’s study found that 95.5% of the participants who watched science fiction movie clips correctly
23Di WANG A Study of Factors Affecting Consumer Memory and Evaluation of Brand Placement in Moviesrecalled the names of the brand placed in the movies, compared to 45.5% of those who watched comedy clips, and 16.2% of those who watched drama clips. As science fiction is quite different from the rest, this study hypothesized: ● H1: Brand placements in science fiction movies are better recalled than those in real life movies.The modality of brand placements is also related to prominence. There are three modes of brand placements: visual only (VO), audio only (AO), and the combination of visual and audio (VA)1. Gupta and Lord[5] defined visual only brand placements as “showing a brand logo, billboard or some other visual brand identifier without any relevant message or sounds on the audio track which draw attention to the product” (p.49). Audio only brand placements are defined as “the mention of a brand name or a character conveying brand-related messages in audio form, without showing the product on the screen” (p.49). The combination of visual and audio involves “showing a brand and at the same time mentioning the brand name or conveying a brand-relevant message in audio form” (p.49).Whether VO brand placements will induce more brand recall or AO brand placements will induce more brand recall is debated in the literature. Visual primacy theory states that visual is often the dominant modality compared to audio. Massaro argued that we rely on both channels to understand the signal, giving more weight to the channel with the most reliable information[7]. It is human nature to believe that visual is more reliable than audio. Accordingly, we give more weight to visual information. If visual primacy theory is true, then brand placement transmitted through visual is considered more trustworthy and thus better received and accordingly better recalled by the respondents. On the other hand, Gupta and Lord believed that VO mode has the risk that viewers may not pay attention to them and therefore less likely to recall the presence of the brand placement[5]. AO 1. The abbreviations are used in the following paragraphs.mode overcomes the problem, and it is less complex than visual depiction. Their study found that AO brand placements are better recalled than VO brand placements. This result is also supported by other studies[8~9].Literatures on the comparison of recall rate between VA, VO and AO are also mixed. According to the duel-coding model of advertising[10], pictures are encoded as imaginal codes and words are encoded as verbal codes. Information from the duel-coding advertising is easier to retrieve from memory than visual only advertising, which is supported by the advertising research[11]. Another argument for this is that in multimodal signal communication, one component can enhance the “memorability” of partner components[12], as may occur in compound learning[13]. Based on the two arguments, the recall rate of VA brand placements should be higher than VO or AO brand placements. Several studies found support for this[5, 8~9]. However, other studies did not find significant difference between the recall rate of dual modes of brand placements and single mode of brand placements[5~6]. To examine the discrepant findings, this study shall design an experiment and test the difference between the recall rate of VO and AO brand placements, and the recall rate of dual modes of brand placements and single mode of brand placements. Based on the findings that received more support, this study hypothesizes that: ● H2: Visual and audio (VA) brand placements are better recalled than audio only (AO) brand placements, audio alone brand placements are better recalled than visual only (VO) brand placements. Next, we want to explore the evaluation of brand placements. It is argued that the context in which advertisement is presented will affect the reaction to it[14]. Gupta and Gould believed that people who watch movies often indicate that they enjoy doing so and therefore are more inclined to hold a positive attitude towards elements of movies, which includes brand placements[1]. On the other hand, those who do not watch movie often may have reservation on movies
24and accordingly less likely to appreciate the elements of it, like brand placements. They argued that this is based on the congruity approach in which self-concept and various functional aspect of consumption are matched on relevant attributes[15]. Gupta and Gould found in general, consumers who watch movies more often are more acceptable than those who do not watch movies as often[1]. Whether this is true need to be tested with more studies, thus this study hypothesizes: ● H3: Peop le who wa tch movies more frequently will find brand placement more acceptable than those who watch movies less frequently.2 Method2.1 ParticipantsThirty-nine undergraduate students who received extra credit in four communication courses participated in the study. The study used convenient sampling method as undergraduate students represented a primary target audience of the movie industry[16]. The sample contained 17.9% male and 81.1% female. According to Motion Picture Association of America’s studies, women made up the majority of American and Canadian movie goers in recent years, thus even though our sample consists of more women than men, it can still be counted as a valid sample[16].The age of the sample was between 19 to 23 years old ( M = 20.41, SD = 0.91). The year in school ranges from sophomore to senior. All subjects of the sample were white Americans. They watched on average 2.94 movies during the past two weeks.2.2 Research Design and Procedure Respondents were randomly assigned to four groups. All groups viewed the first twenty minutes of a movie. Two groups viewed science fiction movies, one of the groups viewed Men in Black II (n = 11), the other viewed I, Robot (n = 11). The other two groups viewed real life movies, one of the groups viewed The Wedding Planner (n = 10), the other viewed Maid in Manhattan (n = 7). These movies were chosen for several reasons. First, Men in Black II and I, Robot were both science fiction movies that had their setting in fictional environment, while The Wedding Planner and Maid in Manhattan were completely real life stories. Second, Men in Black II and I, Robot were both starred by Will Smith, and their favorability were not significantly different, Men in Black II (M = 3.63), I, Robot (M = 4.27). The Wedding Planner and Maid in Manhattan were both starred by Jennifer Lopez, and their favorability were even closer, The Wedding Planner (M = 4.40) and Maid in Manhattan (M = 4.29). Third, the number of brand placement in Men in Black II (n = 4) and I, Robot (n = 4) were similar. The number of brand placement in The Wedding Planner (n = 7) and Maid in Manhattan (n = 5) were also similar. Fourth, most of the brands appeared in the movies were familiar brands to college students. Fifth, the use of two similar films rather than one single film on each genre undermines the possibility of finding results based on chance or favorability of a specific movie. Finally, since all the movies were released several years ago, we avoid the potential confound of promotional tie-ins or announced sponsorships that could have drawn the attention of the audience to the brands.Exposure time of the brands ranged from 1 second to 102 seconds, and the number of shots for each brand ranges from 1 shot to 8 shots. Altogether, there were four VO brand placements in Men in Black II; there were three VO brand placements and one VA brand placement in I, Robot; there were one VO, two AO and two VA brand placements in Maid in Manhattan; and there were three VO, three AO and two VA brand placements in The Wedding Planner (See Table 1).Immediately after viewing the movie clip, respondents were asked to answer two questionnaires. The main purpose of the first questionnaire was to test the unaided recall of brand placements in the movies. The first question asked them to write down what they thought was the purpose of the study. If the respondents had learnt the purpose of the study, they would pay more attention to identify and remember the brand placement in the movies. This question serves as the control of pre-knowledge of
25Di WANG A Study of Factors Affecting Consumer Memory and Evaluation of Brand Placement in Moviesthe purpose of the experiment. Next, subjects were asked how many times they had seen the movie before, how much they like the movie and to list the real life product or company names that they have seen or heard in the movie. The questionnaires were collected and the second part of the questionnaire was distributed. The second part of the questionnaire provided aid to help the respondents recall the brands in the movies by providing categories of the brands in the movie (e.g., car, restaurant, clothing and accessories). Next, participants were given the definition of brand placement: “brand placements are the paid inclusion of branded products or brand identifiers, through audio and/or visual means, within mass media programming[2]”. They were then asked a battery of questions soliciting their attitudes towards brand placement. All attitude questions were asked using a five point Likert scale, 1 means disagree, 5 means agree. Favorability towards the movies were also asked on a five point Likert scale, 1 means dislike, 5 means like.TaAle 1 Brand placement modality in the movies Genre Science fiction Real life Men in Black III, RobotMaid in ManhattanThe Wedding PlannerBrandVictoria's Secret, Empire dinner, Ben's Pizza, Mercedes BenzAudi, Converse, FedEx, JVCGoogle, Beresford Hotel, New York Journal, Four seasons, Doles & GabbanaBarbie, Evian, Krazy, Yahoo hoo!, Antique Roadshow, Crystal Champaigne, Jean Pernet Champaign, Ted Champaign, GucciAO 0 0 2 3VO 4 3 1 3VA 0 1 2 2Total 4 4 5 83 ResultsThe stimuli in the study provided the condition necessary to test the contrasts implied by the hypotheses, but they did not provide a completely crossed factorial design (movie type × brand placement modality). Thus interaction effect was not testable, only contrasts between conditions were tested. No substantive differences emerged between demographic groups (gender, year in school). As a result, analyses were pooled across groups. None of the respondents reported awareness of the true purpose of the experiment. On average, participants have watched the movie they were assigned to watch 1.74 times (M = 1.74, SD = 1.71). ANOVA tests showed that prior exposures to the movie do not have impact on the outcome of the hypothesis tests, neither is the favorability of the movie. Generally students are favorable towards the movies (M = 3.94) and there were no favorability differences among people who watch different movies or different genres of movies, F (3, 35) = 1.97, p > 0.05.T-tests were used to compare the recall rate (the number of recalled brand placements divided by the total number of brand placement in the movie clip) across conditions. In general, recall with aid is significantly higher than recall without aid, t (38) = -3.747, p < 0.05. Thus, unaided recall and aided recall in general and in three modalities were analyzed separately.H1 indicated superior recall of brand placements in fiction movies than those in real life movies. Results showed that in general, unaided recall was not significantly different between science fiction movies (M = 0.26, SD = 0.22) and real life movies (M = 0.16, SD = 0.15), t (36) = 1.65, p > 0.05. For aided recall, the differences between science fiction movies (M = 0.39, SD = 0.14) and real life movie (M = 0.32, SD = 0.19) were also not significant, t (28) = 1.14, p > 0.05. When we separate brand placements by mode, the differences state to reveal. VO brand placements were better recalled without aid in science fiction movies (M = 0.24, SD = 0.21) than in real life movies (M = 0.10, SD = 0.20), t (35) = 2.23, p < 0.05. When provided with brands to choose, VO brand placements were also better recalled with aid in science fiction movies (M =
260.49, SD = 0.23) than in real life movies (M = 0.29, SD = 0.37), t (37) = 2.05, p < 0.05. VA brand placements were better recalled with aid in science fiction movies (M = 1.00, SD = 0.00) than in real life movies (M = 0.68, SD = 0.43), t (26) = 2.47, p < 0.05. Thus H1 is partially supported. Both VO and VA placements were better recalled in science fiction movies than in real life movies. This difference was not found for AO placements. H2 hypothesized that VA brand placements are better recalled than AO brand placements, and AO brand placements are better recalled than VO brand placements. Repeated ANONVA was used to test the differences of recall rate across modalities. As only two movies (The Wedding Planner and Maid in Manhattan) have all three modes of brand placement, the hypothesis was only tested with two movies that contained 17 subjects. Results showed that unaided recall of VO placements (M = 0.10, SD = 0.20) and AO placements (M = 0.08, SD = 0.18) and VA placements (M = 0.24, SD = 0.31) was not significantly different from each other. F (2, 30) = 2.11, p > 0.05.Aided recall of VO placements (M = 0.27, SD = 0.09), AO placement (M = 0.26, SD = 0.08) and VA placements (M = 0.65, SD = 0.10) were found to be significantly different from each other, F (2, 30) = 8.08, p <0.05. Since the F test was significant, a follow up post-hoc paired t-test was used to test the differences between each two modalities. The result showed that there were no significant differences between VO recall (M = 0.29, SD = 0.37) and AO recall (M = 0.23, SD = 0.34) with aid, t (16) = 0.50, p < 0.05. VA brand placements recall rate with aid (M = 0.68, SD = 0.43) was significantly higher than VO recall with aid (M = 0.29, SD = 0.37), t (16) = -4.19, p < 0.05. VA brand placements recall rate with aid (M = 0.68, SD = 0.43) was significantly higher than AO recall rate (M = 0.23, SD = 0.34) as well, t (16) = -2.99, p < 0.05.There was an interaction effect between brand placement modality and movie, such that in the movie The Wedding Planner, the percentage of AO recall with aid (M = 0.10, SD = 0.16) was smaller than the percentage of VO recall with aid (M = 0.40, SD = 0.34), and the percentage of VO recall with aid (M = 0.40, SD = 0.34) is smaller than the percentage of VA recall with aid (M = 0.80, SD = 0.54). In the movie Maid in Manhattan the percentage of VO recall with aid (M = 0.14, SD = 0.38) is smaller than the percentage of AO recall with aid (M = 0.42, SD =0.45), and the percentage of AO recall with aid (M =0.42, SD = 0.45) was smaller than the percentage of VA recall with aid (M = 050, SD = 0.00) (See Figure 1).Figure 1. Recall rate of VO, AO and VA Arand placements yith aid in the movie The Wedding Planner and Maid in Manhattan3.1 Attitude toyards Arand placementsAttitude towards brand placements was measured on a multi-item scale in Table 2. It had an acceptable reliability (α = 0.75). The favorability index was created by first reverse recoding the score of the two items “I hate seeing brand name products in movies if they are placed for commercial purposes” and “Brand placements impair/interrupts the movie”, then adding the scores of all four items together and divide by 4. Generally, participants were favorable towards brand placement in movies (M = 3.94). TaAle 2 Attitude toyard Placement Multi-item Measures, Mean and Standard DeviationMulti-item Measures M SDI don't mind brand products appear in movies. 4.41 0.85I hate seeing brand name products in movies if they are placed for commercial purposes.2.21 1.06Brand placements impair/interrupts the movie. 1.15 1.04Brand placements make movie realistic. 3.64 1.16
27Di WANG A Study of Factors Affecting Consumer Memory and Evaluation of Brand Placement in MoviesMost respondents did not mind brand products appearing in movies (M = 4.41, SD = 0.85), did not hate seeing brand name products in movies if they were placed for commercial purposes (M = 2.21, SD = 1.06), did not agree that brand placements impair/interrupts the movie (M = 1.15, SD = 1.04), believed that placements make movies realistic (M = 3.64, SD = 1.15). There were no favorability differences among people who watched science fiction movies (M = 3.61, SD = 0.79) and people who watched real life movies (M = 3.72, SD = 0.54), F (1, 37) = 0.23, p > 0.05. There were also no favorability differences among people who watch different movies, Man in Black II (M = 3.84, SD =0.65), The Wedding Planner (M = 3.75, SD = 0.62), I, Robot (M = 3.39, SD = 0.88), Maid in Manhattan (M = 3.68, SD = 0.43), F(3, 38) = 0.89, p < 0.05. Thus analyses were pooled across groups.After recoding movie watching frequency and the favorability of brand placements into dichotomous variables, Chi-square was used to test the relationship between movie watching f requency and the favorability of brand placement. Contrary to the prediction, H3 was not supported. People who watch movies more frequently did not find brand placement more acceptable than those who watch movies less frequently, r = 0.87, χ2 (1, N = 39) = 0.87, p > 0.05.4 DiscussionThe experiment set out to test hypotheses about two things: first, the effects of various brand placement modalities and movie types on recall; second, the effect of the frequency of movies going on the favorability of brand placements.H1 predicted that brand placements in science fiction movies are better recalled than those in real life movies. The general effect of the hypothesis was not supported. However, science fiction movies were found to be superior than real life movies on VO recall with and without aid, and VA recall with aid. Thus H1 was partially supported. The failing to find general effect may be the two science fiction movies in the experiment have relatively fewer VA brand placement (N = 1) compared to real life movies (N = 4). The only one case in the recall rate of VA brand placements in science fiction movies may produce a lot of error that prevent the general effect to be significant.H2 predicted that VA brand placements are better recalled than AO, AO brand placements are better recalled than VO brand placements in both unaided and aided conditions. Results showed that in the unaided condition, recall of brand placements in the three modalities were not significantly different from each other. This may be because unaided recalls were low in all modalities.Aided recalls of VO, AO and VA placements were found to be significantly different from each other. The recall of VA placements was superior than the recall rate of VO or AO placements. This is consistent with the dual-coding model of advertising[10]. Dual modes of brand placements indeed produced better recall rate than single mode, though no substantial recall differences were found between VO and AO placements. This finding is neither consistent with the visual primacy theory, nor consistent with the arguments by Gupta and Lord which stated that viewers may pay attention to audio brand placements more than visual brand placements[5]. Perhaps the prominence of brand placements had a stronger effect on the recall rate of brand placements than the mode of brand placements. No matter it is VO or AO, prominent brand placements are always better recalled. Accordingly, no difference was found for different modalities.There was an interaction effect between brand placement modality and movie. In the movie The Wedding Planner, the recall rate with aid from lowest to highest was AO, VO and VA placements; while in the movie Maid in Manhattan, the recall rate with aid from lowest to highest was VO, AO recall and VA. The lower recall rate of AO placement with aid in the movie The Wedding Planner compared to Maid in Manhattan may be because that the AO brands in the former was less famous than those in the latter.There were three AO placements, all of which were mentioned once in one scenario. Two of the AO
28placements was mentioned by a minor role in one sentence “Oh, champagne is delightful, Crystal, Jean Pernet?” Followed by the main actress: “Actually it’s Ted.” The two AO placements in the movie Maid in Manhattan were Google and Four Seasons Hotel. Google was mentioned by the main actress once. Four Seasons Hotel was mentioned by a minor role once, too. As the champagne brands were not familiar to everyone, Google and Four Seasons Hotel were relatively more famous, the higher recall rate of aided AO placements in Maid in Manhattan as compared to The Wedding Planner could be explained by the familiarity of the AO brands.Attitudes towards brand placements in movies were quite favorable. This was consistent with previous findings that Americans’ attitudes towards brand placement in movies were quite high compared to other countries like France, Austrian, Singapore and China[3, 17~18].Contrary to H3’s prediction, people who watched movies more frequently did not find brand placements more acceptable than those who watched movies less frequently. This may because of ceiling effect that nearly all the respondents found brand placement quite acceptable. In Gupta and Gould’s study, respondents were asked a series of questions on the ethical concerns of brand placements[1], therefore some of them may be less favorable to brand placement due to the priming effect of activating the negative aspects of brand placement. In the current study, no ethical questions were mentioned to prime the respondents. Respondents were very favorable to brand placement (M = 3.94). Due to the ceiling effect, no differences were found between people who watched movies often and those who watched movie less often.As mentioned above, one of the limitations of the present study was though most of the brands in the movies were familiar brands to college students, there were still some brands like Ted Champaign, Jean Pernet Champaign that no participants can identify. But since they made up only 10% of the brands in total, the unfamiliarity of the two brands did not change the findings.Another drawback was that there were not equal numbers of AO, VO, and VA placements in each movie. This problem could be overcome by statistical adjustments. However, as there was only one VO placement in some movies, it could still be argued that the findings could be the result of error. Future research could select movie clips that have more brand placements in all three modalities. To sum up, this study found VO and VA brand placements in science fiction movies were better recalled than those in real life movies. VA brand placements were better recalled than AO, AO brand placements and VO brand placements were not significantly different from each other. Contrary to our prediction, people who watched movies more frequently did not find brand placement more acceptable than those who watched movies less frequently.References [1] Gupta, P. B., & Gould, S. J. (1997). Consumers’ perceptions of the ethics and acceptability of brand placement in movies: Product category and individual differences. Journal of Current Issues and Research in Advertising, 19(1), 37-50.[2] Karrh, J. A. (1998). Brand placement: A review. Journal of Current Issues and Research in Advertising, 20, 31-49.[3] Karrh, J. A., Frith, K. T., & Callison, C. (2001). Audience attitudes towards brand (product) placement: Singapore and the united states. International Journal of Advertising, 20, 3–24.[4] Yang, M., & Roskos-Ewoldsen, D. R. (2007). The effectiveness of brand placements in the movies: Levels of placements, explicit and implicit memory, and brand-choice behavior. Journal of Communication, 57, 469–489. [5] Gupta, P. B., & Lord, K. R. (1998). Brand placement in movies: The effect of prominence and mode on audience recall. Journal of Current Issues and Research in Advertising, 20, 47-59. [6] d’Astous, A., & Chartier, F. (2000). A study of factors affecting consumer evaluations and memory of brand placement in movies. Journal of Current Issues and Research in Advertising, 22 (2), 31-40. [7] Massaro, D. W. (1998). Perceiving talking faces: From speech perception to a behavioral principle. Cambridge, MA.: MIT Press. [8] Brennan, I., & Laurie, A. B. (2004). Brand placement recognition: The influence of presentation mode and brand familiarity. Journal of Promotion Management, 10 (1/2), 185-202. [9] Law, S., & Braun, K. A. (2000). I’ll have what she’s having: Gauging the impact of brand placement on viewers. Psychology and Marketing, 17, 1059-1075. [10] Pavio, A. (1986). Mental representations: A duel coding approach. New York: Oxford University Press. [11] Unnava, H. R., & Burnkrant, R. E. (1991). An imagery-processing view of the role of pictures in print advertisements. Journal of Marketing Research, 28, 226-231.
29Di WANG A Study of Factors Affecting Consumer Memory and Evaluation of Brand Placement in Movies[12] Guilford, T., & Dawkins, M. S. (1991). Receiver psychology and the evolution of animal signals. Animal Behavior, 42, 1-14. [13] Rowe, C. (1999). Receiver psychology and the evolution of multicomponent signals. Animal Behaviour, 58, 921–931. [14] Mundorf, N., Zilmann, D., & Drew, D. (1991). Effects of disturbing television events on the acquisition of information from subsequently presented commercials. Journal of Advertising, 20 (1), 46-53. [15] Sirgy, W. J., Johar, J. S., Samli, A. C., & Claiborne, C. B. (1991). Self-congruity versus functional congruity: Predictors of consumer behavior. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 19 (Fall), 363-376. [16] Motion Picture Association of America, Inc. (2014). Theatrical Market Statistics. Retrieved April, 4, 2015 from http://www.mpaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/MPAA-Theatrical-Market-Statistics-2014.pdf[17] Gould, S. J., Gupta, P. B., & Grabner-Krauter, S. (2000). Brand placements in movies: A cross-cultural analysis of Austrian, French and American consumers’ attitude toward this emerging, international promotional medium. Journal of Advertising, 29(4), 41-58. [18] McKechnie, S. A., & Zhou, J. (2003). Brand placement in movies: A comparison of chinese and american consumers’ attitudes. International Journal of Advertising, 22, 349-374. 大學建設澳科大本地畢業生契合市場需求呈高就業率澳門科技大學創業就業發展中心最新發佈的調查表明，過去五年澳科大澳門本地學士學位畢業生畢業後前三個月的就業和升學率高達94%，其中選擇升學的佔10%左右;是次調查統計了2010至2014年間的畢業生數據。此間，澳科大共計培育本地畢業生4971名，其中博士學位45名、碩士學位350名、學士學位4576名。調查顯示，澳科大學生畢業後職業呈多元化發展。其中旅遊、酒店及餐飲、娛樂博彩佔47.4%；貿易、批發及零售佔18.2%；銀行、金融及保險佔8%；公共行政佔4.2%；通訊及電腦3.1%；建築及房地產佔4.8%；其他行業佔14.3。以上數字反映出澳科大畢業生就業以澳門市場需求為導向，能充分考慮自身的專業所長和職業發展規劃，投身於目前澳門各主流行業中，如旅遊、酒店、娛樂博彩、金融、貿易、零售等行業，比例高達近74%。澳科大一直十分重視和支持學生創業與就業，早在2010年9月就成立了“創業就業發展中心”，為畢業生拓寬就業管道、豐富就業選擇，增強畢業生就業市場競爭力和事業發展潛能，為澳門經濟適度多元可持續發展提供人才資源。早前由澳科大創業就業發展中心舉辦的“校園招聘會2015”，邀得118家來自澳門本地、香港與廣東的企業參與，現場設92個攤位，為畢業生提供超過3000個職位招聘和36場就業講座。特区高教辦驗收澳科大廚藝學教學實驗室4月15日，澳門高等教育輔助辦公室專家小組蒞臨澳科大驗收廚藝學教學實驗室，在科大相關領導的陪同下考察了由該辦公室資助大部分設備的新成立廚藝學教學實驗室。高教辦之專家小組對實驗室的高質素建設、管理和使用給予了高度讚揚及評價，廚藝教學實驗室設備順利通過驗收。廚藝學教學實驗室佔地624平方米，224平方米為廚藝學教學實驗室，400平方米為廚具儲物房。於今年一月份正式投入使用，該實驗室有效地輔助了本校餐飲管理學士課程的教與學。實驗室內設備完善，配備了世界級的烹飪設施，為學生提供全面的烹飪培訓和廚藝專業技能鍛鍊場地。實驗室為學生提供了中西餐及烘培等方面的廚藝學教學條件，除了包括教師用的主體示範台外，還設置了十個設備完善的學生實踐工作台，每個工作台包括專用電爐頭、洗滌盆、冰箱等設備。學生可透過教師的親身廚藝示範，了解整體烹飪過程並提昇學習成效。每次烹飪課程提供學生親身實踐機會，從烘培糕點到世界各地的美饡，包括歐洲和東南亞佳餚至自助餐與宴會等烹調製作。廚藝學教學實驗室為學生提供了高水平的廚藝學實踐所需之軟件及硬件設備，配合教學需要，為酒店與旅遊管理學院餐飲管理學士課程學生提供了學以致用的高質量及高效廚藝課程實踐平台。
30第 9 卷 第 1 期 澳 門 科 技 大 學 學 報 Vol.9 No.12015 年 6 月 30 日 Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology June 30, 2015 港澳新時期話劇中的市民形象比對分析鄭應峰（澳門科技大學國際學院，澳門）摘要： 香港和澳門的話劇發展在上個世紀七十年代中後期走上了新的方向。七十年代的港澳，從社會發展的樣態來看，話劇運動進入了一個新的時期。兩地話劇首先反映的就是市民社會對於社會倫理架構新的思考和取向。隨著七十年代中後期港澳經濟騰飛式的發展，兩地話劇隨著城市經濟的規模性發展，港澳話劇逐步在文化本土意識的領域形成各自的特色。相對而言，香港話劇更多地和現代經濟意識聯繫在一起，而澳門則更多地體現為某種文化懷舊意識。進入上個世紀九十年代之後，兩地話劇在主題意義上呈現異中有同的現象。除了話劇的文化本土意識的分野，兩地話劇在對於城市現代性症候的認識上走向了統一。關鍵詞： 話劇；新時期；市民Analysis of PuAlic Image of Hong ong and Macau on the Drama in the Ney PeriodYingfeng ZHENG( University International College, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, China )AAstractt: Hongkong and Macau drama development in the late seventy's of the last century to a new direction. Seventy's Hong Kong and Macau, the state of social development, the modern drama movement has entered a new era. While the first two drama reflects the civil society is the social ethical framework for thinking and orientation of the new. With the rapid development in the late seventy's Hong Kong and Macau economy type, two drama with the scale of the development of urban economy, Hong Kong and Macau drama gradually formed their own characteristics in the cultural field of consciousness. Relatively speaking, Hongkong drama more and more modern economic consciousness together, while Macau is more embodied as a cultural nostalgia. After entering the ninety's of last century, both in the theme of the drama is different in the same phenomenon. In addition, the native culture consciousness play, two drama to unity in knowledge of city modernity.eyyordst: Drama; New Period; Citizen收稿日期：2015-05-04；修訂日期：2015-05-24。鄭應峰，男，文學博士，助理教授，主要研究方向為中國現當代文學、華文戲劇。E-mail: yfzheng@must.edu.mo，Tel：+853 88972366 0 引言在香港和澳門的話劇發展史上，文革末期是兩地話劇發展的一個分水嶺。從學術區分的角度，可以把文革末期以後的港澳話劇稱為港澳的新時期話劇。港澳話劇正式誕生於中國抗戰的年代，此後的發展受各自內外動因的支配而呈現出不同的表徵。然而，不約而同地，兩城的話劇都在文革後期邁上了新時期的發展道路。談及香港話劇，學者張秉權認為：“無論怎樣評價文革，無論它該承受怎樣的惡名，我們總得承認它有相當程度的理想主義與浪漫色彩。而近在咫尺的香港，更
38第 9 卷 第 1 期 澳 門 科 技 大 學 學 報 Vol.9 No.12015 年 6 月 30 日 Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology June 30, 2015 芻論通識教師的績效評估程文麗1*，李韶馳2（1. 澳門科技大學通識教育部，澳门；2. 廣州行政學院信息網絡中心，廣州）摘要： 通過對通識教師的內涵及績效特徵的分析，以目標管理法（MBO）和360度績效考核法為導向，運用層次分析法（AHP）構建一套適用于通識教師的績效評估指標體系，為建立通識教師的評價與激勵體制提供參考。關鍵詞： 通識教育；通識教師；績效評估；指標體系The Preliminary Study on the Performance Evaluation of General Education TeachersWen-li CHENG 1, Shao-chi LI 2( 1. Department of General Education, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, China2.Information Network Center, Guangzhou Administration Institute, Guangzhou, China )AAstractt: Through the analysis of the connotation and performance characteristics for general education teachers, and taking the Management By Objectives (MBO) method and the 360-Degree Feedback evaluation method oriented, this paper uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to construct a set of performance evaluation index system of general education teachers, and provides the reference for the establishment of general education teacher evaluation and incentive system.eyyordst: General education; General education teachers; Performance evaluation; Index system收稿日期：2015-02-17；修訂日期：2015-02-22。* 通訊作者：程文麗，女，在讀博士，講師，主要研究方向：通識教育。E-mail: wlcheng@must.edu.mo，Tel: 853-621568400 引言通識教育已經成為國際高等教育界探討的一個重要課題，在中國的兩岸四地，通識教育的概念也逐漸被各高校所討論、接受和實踐，成為提升中國高教品質、塑造中國現代文明性格的重要內驅力。有學者分析闡述了通識教育的豐富內涵及其重要性，對發展通識教育也提出許多對策和建議，包括對通識教育課程的研究也備受關注，然而，對通識教育教師的研究則略顯不足，缺少系統深入地研究。對通識教育教師研究的不受重視，已間接成為制約通識教育發展的瓶頸問題之一[1]。中國著名的通識教育專家甘陽教授曾經這樣評價教師在通識教育中發揮的關鍵作用：“哈佛大學通識課程的特點並不在於其課程設置的規劃，而是在於用什麼人教授通識。任何學校如果不能學這一條即以第一流學者教本科大一，而只是外在模仿哈佛的 1978 年方案，那只能是最糟糕的[2]。”蒲波[3]則把在通識教育中教授通識課程的教師統稱為“通識教師”，並將“通識教師”定位為大學實施通識教育的基礎條件，強調成功推行通識教育的關鍵在於建立科學的通識教師評價與激勵機制。楊洋[4]在關於通識教師隊伍建設的研究中也提出對通識教師的工作績效進行有效
39程文麗，等 芻論通識教師的績效評估評估，並闡述了一些評估方法。但目前尚無針對通識教師績效評估的專項研究，雖然對高校教師績效評估的相關研究已非常成熟，但通識教師有別于專業課教師，績效評估不能生搬硬套。為此，筆者從通識教師的內涵與績效特徵入手，分析通識教師和專業課教師的區別，以此為基礎設計通識教師的績效評估指標，並採用層次分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process：AHP）計算指標權重，旨在構建一套適用于通識教師的績效評估指標體系，為建立通識教師的評價與激勵體制提供參考。1 通識教師的內涵與績效特徵目前，學界對通識教師尚未給出一個明確的定義，為了釐清通識教師的概念，筆者綜合學界的相關論述，對通識教師的定義以及通識教師與專業教師的區別做了一些歸納。通識教師，指專職從事通識課程教學的教師。與專業教師相比，首先是講授的課程不同，這就決定了教師的能力素質和知識結構的不同；其次是講課的受眾不同，通識教師面對的群體是各種專業不同學科的學生，所以在教學方法和授課方式，甚至在教學理念上都會有所不同。北京大學陳躍紅教授指出：“現在的很多教師成長于專業化教育環境中，如果自己不‘通’不‘識’，如何去開設、教授通識課？”通識教師要“把通識教育當作自己的使命，博聞強記，使自己具備良好的通識教育素質，從而才能成為通識教育的合格教學者”[5]。何秀煌[6]認為：通識中的“通”不是通才的“通”，即什麼都知道；而是貫通的“通”，即不同學科的知識能夠相互通融，遇到問題時能夠從比較開闊的、跨學科的視角進行思考，收集資料，與人交流合作，達到不同文化和不同專業之間的溝通。由此可見，通識教師既要有一定的專業學術水準和專業技能，又要有較為寬泛的知識面，這就要求通識教師在課堂上除了講授專業知識之外，還應該融合一些和專業知識相關的課外知識，使得教學內容更加生動，也能激發學生的學習熱情，例如，在數學課上可以講授數學背後的人文精神滲透、在英文課上可以講授西方文學鑒賞等等；既要有綜合分析、研判和全面思考的能力，又要具備正確的通識教育理念，個性化和多元化的教學方法，以及創新發展的教學意識。因此，在評估通識教師的能力素質時，應結合通識教師的上述特徵，重點從智慧和技能兩個關鍵指標進行評估。通識教育著眼於人的全面發展，旨在培養出知識結構合理，又專又全，具有良好思想素質和道德素質的全面人才。為達到這一目標，通識教師不僅要促進學生認知水準的發展以及知識的豐厚，更要借助通識教育促進學生倫理道德發展[7]。因此，作為通識教師，不僅要“學為人師”，還要“德為人範”，所謂“身教勝於言教”，教師的人格魅力在教學活動中往往會起到潛移默化的作用，這不是教學內容和教學技巧所能取代的。這就要求通識教師必須加強職業道德修養，應該具有優良的品德和高尚的情操，所以應該把“德”列入通識教師的績效評估中，並從“倫理道德修養”和“工作作風態度”兩個方面進行細化。王義遒[8]把通識教師概括為對學理有真知、真信、真行和真情的人，他認為，通識教師不能只是按照教學大綱和現成教材照本宣科，而是要對學生曉之以理、動之以情，使學生體會課程的實質和精神、瞭解對課程物件的獨特研究態度和方法。所謂“教無定法”，對於出色的通識教師而言，雖然教法不同、風格迥異，但卻都能收到卓越的效果。由此可見，通識教師不僅要有高尚的情操、淵博的知識和寬闊的視野，而且要有高超的教學藝術，對通識教育有真知灼見、對真理有篤實的信仰、對學生有真摯的感情——這些雖然看起來抽象，但卻都能集中體現在整個教學過程中，並由教學品質來衡量其效果。2 通識教師績效評估的指標設計根據管理學大師德魯克提出的目標管理法（Management By Objectives：MBO）的思想，通
44第 9 卷 第 1 期 澳 門 科 技 大 學 學 報 Vol.9 No.12015 年 6 月 30 日 Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology June 30, 2015 房地產貸款、資產規模與銀行風險承擔楊文捷，朱順和*（澳門科技大學商學院，澳門）摘要： 2008年次貸金融危機對中國的銀行經營風險影響不容忽視。近年來隨著銀行資產規模和房地產貸款規模不斷的擴增的影響，銀行風險承擔在不斷的增加。因此，本研究主要目的為探究資產規模和房地產貸款對銀行風險承擔的影響。本研究實證結果顯示：1.企業房地產貸款與總貸款比率與不良貸款率有顯著負相關關係；與風險性資產與總資產比率則有顯著正相關關係；2.個人住房貸款與總貸款比率與不良貸款率顯著負相關關係；3.銀行資產規模與不良貸款率有顯著正向相關關係。關鍵詞： 房地產貸款；銀行資產規模；銀行風險承擔；面板數據模型Mortgage Loan, Asset Size and Bank Risk-TakingWenjie YANG, Shun-Ho CHU*( School of Business, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, China )AAstractt: The sub-prime mortgage crisis of 2008 affecting the operation risk management of China's banks should not be ignored. Following a significant increase in the asset size and real estate loans, risk-taking of banks has continuously increased in recent years. Thus, the study aims to explore the impact of asset size and mortgage loans on the bank risk-taking. The empirical results of this study show that ratio of business real estate loans to total loans has a significantly negative relationship with the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans and positive relationship with ratio of risky assets to total assets. Secondly, ratio of personal mortgage loans to total loans has a significantly negative impact on the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans. Finally, bank assets size has a significantly positive relationship with the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans.eyyordst: Mortgage loans; bank size; bank risk-taking; panel data model收稿日期：2014-10-13；修訂日期：2014-11-10。* 通訊作者：朱順和，男，博士。研究方向：銀行和退休金管理。E-mail:shchu@must.edu.mo, 電話：00853-889722650 引言2008 年次貸金融危機發生的主要原因之一，是由於房地產市場泡沫破滅，導致房地產價格跌落，信用評級較差的貸款者無力償還住房抵押貸款，所引發的一種金融逆選擇與道德危險問題。這些不良住房抵押貸款導致銀行面臨更高的貸款違約風險。2008 年次貸危機的風險承擔者是遍及全球金融市場，對中國金融業的影響更是不能忽視。近年來，中國的銀行房地產貸款迅速擴張，從中國房地產的運行過程及其資金鏈來看，銀行信貸貫穿於土地儲備、交易、房地產開發和房產銷售的整個過程。中國房地產金融以債權融資為主，股權融資比例較小，融資格局較為單一。這種依賴使得房地產投資的市場風險和融資信用風險集中於商業銀行。一旦房地產價格走向疲軟下滑，房地產市場與商業銀行之間形成的資本鏈斷
54但是中國傳統商業銀行的盈利模式過於單一，資產結構不夠完善，其他業務效益水平低下，收入來源基本依靠存貸款利差，這不利於銀行對風險的抵禦。所以銀行應該推動多元化業務的發展，提高整體效益。例如開發代理保險業務、代理基金業務、債券交易等多元化業務。（4）加快住房抵押貸款證券化進程，分散市場風險。由於中國住房抵押貸款證券化進程緩慢，長期以來發放住房抵押貸款的資金來源主要是居民銀行存款。因此可以加快住房抵押貸款證券化，發行抵押貸款債券，使抵押貸款投資者可以有效解決銀行資金問題，並減少風險積聚。（5）金融危機對銀行風險的影響本研究發現 2008 年次貸金融危機對銀行風險資產與總資產比率的影響呈負相關關係，說明2008 年次貸金融危機時，中國銀監會嚴格執行對銀行的監管工作，而商業銀行同時也遵守中國銀監會的各項規定，因此削弱了次貸金融危機對中國銀行業的影響，降低了銀行在危機期間的風險。參 考 文 獻[1] Blasko, M. and Sinkey Jr., J.F.. 2006. Bank asset structure, real-estate lending, and risk-taking. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 46(1): 53-81.[2] Rahman, A.A., Mansor, I. and Ahamad, K.M.M..2009. Lending structure and bank insolvency risk:A comparative study between the Islamic and conventional banks. Journal of Business and Policy Research, 4(2):189-211.[3] Igan, D. and Pinheiro, M.. 2010. Exposure to real estate in bank portfolio, Journal of Real Estate Research, 32(1): 47-74. [4] Rahman, A. A.. 2011. Lending structure and insolvency risk of Malayan bank: a sensitivity analysis, International Journal of Business and Society, 12(2): 16-36.[5] Valahzaghard, M.K. and Samadi, A.. 2013. A study on relationship between tail risk on earning management in Iranian banking industry. Management Science Letters, 3: 705-714.[6] Angbazo, L.. 1997. Commercial bank net interest margins, default risk, interest-rate risk, and off-balance sheet banking. Journal of Banking and Finance, 21: 55-87.[7] Wetmore, J. L.. 2004. Panel data, liquidity risk, and increasing loans-to-core deposits ratio of Large commercial bank holding companies [1992-2000]. American Business Review, 22(2): 99-107.[8] 葛兆強. 2008. 次貸危機與國內房地產貸款.河南金融管理幹部 ， 學院學報，6: 45-51.[9] Louzis, D.P.. Vouldis, A.T. and Metaxas, V.L.. 2012. Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios. Journal of Banking and Finance, 36(4): 1012-1027.[10] Zribi, N. and Boujelbene, Y.. 2011. The Factors Influencing Bank Credit Risk: The Case of Tunisia, Journal of Accounting and Taxation, 3(4): 70-78.[11] Thiagarajan, S.. Ayyappan, S. and Ramachandran, A.. 2011. Credit risk determinants of public and private sector banks in India. European Journal of Economics, Finance & Administrative Sciences of Economic, 34:1450-2275.[12] Hossain, M.. 2012. Financial reforms and persistently high bank interest spreads in Bangladesh: Pitfalls in institutional development? Journal of Asian Economics, 23(4): 395-408.[13] 方匡南， 吳見彬. 2013. 個人住房貸款違約預測與利率政策模擬，統計研究，30（10）： 54-60.[14] Delis, M.D..and Kouretas,G.P..2010.Interest rate and bank risk-taking. Journal of Banking and Finance,35(2011)840-855.[15] 李燕平.2014.利率與銀行風險承擔行為的實證分析.經濟問題，1004-972X（2014）11-0038-06. [16] Ahmad, N.H. and Ariff, M.. 2007. Multi-country study of bank credit risk determinants. International Journal of Banking and Finance, 5(1):135-152.[17] 張剛田， 希永. 2007. 銀行業金融機構存貸款比例低問題剖析，河北金融，4： 13-14.[18] Jimenez, G. and Saurina, J.. 2006. Credit cycles, credit risk, and pru-dential regulation. International Journal of Central Banking, 2:65-97.[19] 高冬民. 2004. 國有商業銀行不良貸款問題：資本充足率角度的理解. 西安金融，11： 14-16.校園活动澳科大“外交官系列講座”Ⅳ一覽表序號 場次 日期 主題 主講人1 第一講 3月6日 說說中國女外交官和外交官夫人 原中國駐愛沙尼亞特命全權大使、中國人民外交學會理事叢軍女士2 第二講 3月16日 國際局勢與中國多邊外交 中國常駐聯合國代表、特命全權大使劉結一先生3 第三講 5月8日 讓“可持續發展目標”定義未來聯合國駐華協調員兼聯合國開發計劃署（UNDP）駐華代表 諾德厚先生（Alain NOUDEHOU）
55第 9 卷 第 1 期 澳 門 科 技 大 學 學 報 Vol.9 No.12015 年 6 月 30 日 Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology June 30, 2015 如何提升澳門青年的創新行為 ——自我效能的作用田 青*，陳 爽，鍾 皓，彭達楓（澳門科技大學商學院，澳門）摘要： 本研究旨在探討澳門青年的創新行為，如何受到發展體驗、組織承諾、組織信任以及自我效能的影響。通過實證調研發現澳門青年的創新行為來自於發展體驗對其自身組織承諾以及組織信任的影響，繼而影響其創新行為。自我效能感則能夠調節組織承諾，情感信任和創新行為之間的關係。因此，本研究從理論上闡述發展體驗與創新行為的關係，並從實踐角度，對如何提升澳門青年創新行為提出有效的管理指導建議。關鍵詞： 澳門青年；創新行為；發展體驗；組織承諾；組織信任；自我效能Hoy to Improve the Innovative Work Behavior of Young Employees in Macaut: the Role of Self-efficacyQing TIAN*, Shuang CHEN, Hao ZHONG, Dafeng PENG( Macau University of Science and Technology, School of Business, Macau, China )AAstractt: This study aimed to explore how developmental experience, organizational commitment, organization trust and self-efficacy affect young employees’ innovative work behavior. Empirical study found that innovative work behavior is influenced by whether they experienced development opportunity, which in turn will influence their organizational commitment and affective trust to organizations. Self-efficacy is found to be able to moderate the relationships between organizational commitment, affective trust and innovative behavior. Theoretical and managerial implications are discussed. eyyordst: Innovative Work Behavior; Developmental Experience; Organizational Commitment; Organizational Trust; Self-efficacy收稿日期：2015-03-06；修訂日期：2015-03-28。基金項目： 澳門教育暨青年局 No.1091*通訊作者：田青，女，博士，副教授。主要研究方向：商業倫理，組織行為。 E-mail: qtian@must.edu.mo, Tel:00853-889722650 引言創新是社會發展進入新時代的標誌。現階段的澳門想要成功實現社會轉型以及經濟多元化，城市的國際化，就必須在社會發展過程中積極實施創新。實現整體社會的創新，離不開個體的創新。在澳門近些年發展中，無論是特區制度創新，文化建設，科研發展等等各方面的發展重任都將落到青年人身上。澳門青年的成長正呈現許多新變化和特點，也面臨著機遇與挑戰。澳門特區教育暨青年局局長梁勵在《澳門青年政策（2012 ～2020）》[1] 中提出“著力培養特區建設所需各類青年人才”為教育暨青年局優先推進的實施政策之一。因此，本文主要從青年角度出發，旨在探
71田青，等 如何提升澳門青年的創新行為 ——自我效能的作用員工感受到這種來自組織的更高層次的激勵的同時，基於社會交換理論，也會產生對組織的肯定與認同，包括願意為組織發展努力工作，在工作崗位上盡職盡責，從而產生了對組織的認同感。員工的組織承諾是一種正面的心理契約，它能夠促使員工在個人的工作崗位上積極地嘗試挑戰性的工作，運用組織提供的資源，進行個人的創新行為的工作。當員工對於組織的認同感和歸屬感越強烈時，員工則更加有意願發展個人的創新行為。企業應該營造良好的組織承諾的氛圍，對於青年員工的組織承諾，如：晉升、獎金等方面的承諾，企業應該以制度的形式保證落實。青年員工也應該從積極參與企業所提供的發展體驗機會，在工作中貢獻自己的才華和價值，為企業實現組織承諾履行相應的職責和義務。組織承諾在發展體驗與員工創新行為之間起到部份仲介的作用，從資料分析結果顯示，組織承諾在發展體驗與員工創新行為之間起到正向的作用。即組織讓員工嘗試挑戰性的工作、賦予員工職業上的發展體驗時，員工對於組織的承諾感越強烈，員工進行個人創新行為的積極性也越強。4 未來研究建議本研究通過對發展體驗、信任組織、組織承諾以及員工創新行為幾個變數進行建模，分析它們之間的關係。未來的研究方向可以從以下幾個方面去發展：本研究從員工個人的成長與發展的角度出發，研究與探討了發展體驗與員工創新行為的關係。未來的研究應當試圖分別從員工個人層面、組織層面、外界環境層面、內部心理層面去探究影響員工創新行為的因素，並試圖進行跨層次交互作用的分析。結合研究樣本的實際情況，試圖將理論與實際相結合，探究更為全面的員工創新行為的影響因素。其次，本研究根據對以往文獻的總結，將組織信任與組織承諾作為仲介變數，探討了該仲介變數在發展體驗與員工創新行為之間的關係。在未來的研究中，應當試圖考察自我效能在發展體驗與創新行為之間的仲介作用，以及員工信任組織、組織承諾的調節作用，亦可引入其他仲介變數來探討發展體驗與員工創新行為之間的關係。鑒於有理論支持信任和組織承諾之間的關係，在涉及這兩個變量的研究中，應考慮兩者之間的實證關係。參 考 文 獻[1] 澳門教育暨青年局. 澳門青年政策（2012-2020).[EB/OL] http://portal.dsej.gov.mo/webdsejspace/internet/Inter_main_page.jsp?id=37391[2] 顧遠東，彭紀生. 組織創新氛圍對員工創新行為的影響: 創新自我效能感的仲介作用. 南開管理評論，2010: 30-41.[3] 蘇方國，趙曙明. 組織承諾，組織公民行為與離職傾向關係研究. 科學學與科學技術管理，2005，26: 111-116.[4] 楊晶照，楊東濤，趙順娣，姜林娣. 工作場所中員工創新的內驅力: 員工創造力自我效能感. 心理科學進展，2011，19: 1363-1370.[5] 傅永剛，張健東. IT 行業員工組織承諾與組織公民行為關係研究. 管理评论，2007，10:37-42. [6] Allen, N. J, Meyer, J. P. The measurement and antecedents of affective, continuance and normative commitment to the organization. Journal of occupational psychology, 1990, 63: 1-18.[7] Argyris, C., & Schon, D. Organizational learning: A theory of action approach. Reading, MA: Addision Wesley. 1978.[8] Amabile, T. M., Conti, R., Coon, H., Lazenby, J., Herron, M. Assessing the work environment for creativity. Academy of management journal, 1996, 39: 1154-1184.[9] Anderson, N., De Dreu, CK., Nijstad, B. A. The routinization of innovation research: A constructively critical review of the state‐of‐the‐science. Journal of organizational Behavior, 2004, 25: 147-173.[10] Athos, A. G., Gabarro, J. J., Holtz, J. L. Interpersonal behavior: Communication and understanding in relationships. Prentice-Hall, 1978.[11] Avolio, B. J., Zhu, W., Koh, W., Bhatia, P. Transformational leadership and organizational commitment: Mediating role of psychological empowerment and moderating role of structural distance. Journal of organizational Behavior, 2004, 25: 951-968.[12] Bachmann, R., & Inkpen, A. C. Understanding institutional-based trust building processes in inter-organizational relationships. Organization Studies, 2011, 32(2), 281-301[13] Baker, P. G. Framework for action on interprofessional education and collaborative practice. 2010. [14] Bakker, A. B., Demerouti, E. The job demands-resources model: State of the art. Journal of managerial psychology, 2007, 22: 309-328.[15] Bakker, A. B., Demerouti, E., Euwema, M. C. Job resources buffer the impact of job demands on burnout. Journal of occupational health psychology, 2005, 10: 170.[16] Bandura, A. Self-efficacy: toward a unifying theory of behavioral change. Psychological review, 1977, 84: 191.
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73田青，等 如何提升澳門青年的創新行為 ——自我效能的作用Academy of management journal, 1997, 40: 82-111.[56] West, M. A., & Farr, J. L. Innovation at work: Psychological perspectives. Social Behaviour. 1989. [57] Zhou, J., George, J.M. Awakening employee creativity: The role of leader emotional intelligence. The leadership quarterly, 2003, 14:545-568.[58] Zhou, J., & George, J. M. When job dissatisfaction leads to creativity: Encouraging the expression of voice. Academy of Management journal, 2001, 44(4), 682-696.校園活動2014/2015學年第二學期校園活動一覽表序號 日期 活動形式 主題 主講人/參與者 主辦單位1 1月12日 知識競賽中醫藥學院第四屆“華佗杯”本科生 中醫藥基礎理論知識競賽中醫藥學院本科學生 中醫藥學院學生會2 2月4日 傳播與藝術名家系列講座 十九世紀繪畫中的澳門歷史城區 特區政府文化局吳衛鳴局長 人文藝術學院3 3月2日15週年校慶系列活動之 亮燈儀式啟動校慶月系列活動 校董會、校領導及全校師生 大學43月16日 -17日2015校園招聘會來自粵、港、澳118家企業與機構擺設 攤位；36場就業講座1800多名應屆本科生及600多名应届 研究生創業就業發展中心5 3月17日 学术座談會 水域管理與澳門可持續發展展望 珠澳兩地相關專家學者 社會和文化研究所6 3月19日 校慶系列活動之法制論壇 兩岸四地法制論壇：2015•澳門兩岸四地高校及法、檢院相關 專家學者法學院73月19日 -21日校慶系列活動之學術 研討會高等教育教與學轉型中的文化思考 兩岸四地高校專家學者 國際學院83月21日 -22日“中華．青年．未來” 高校大學生領袖研習會以“弘揚中華文化”為宗旨，主題探討：儒家文化中的道德因素對當代大學生道德的影響；兩岸四地41所大學的80位學生會領袖 澳科大學生會9 3月24日 校慶系列活動之高峰論壇2015傳播周：數字時代的視覺傳播： 法規、倫理及其他兩岸四地專家學者/本校師生人文藝術學院主辦澳門傳播學會協辦10 3月25日“澳門金融創新研究 中心” 揭牌儀式澳科大與中國銀行澳門分行共建 “澳門金融創新研究中心”：緊貼澳門社會和金融市場需求，攜手開展金融創新人才培養和學術研究澳科大校領導及商學院領導；中銀 澳門分行各級領帶；相關專業師生澳科大、中銀澳門分行共同舉辦11 3月26日頒獎典禮暨專家講座 及發佈會澳科大第四屆“校訓盃”讀書徵文大賽頒獎典禮；中科院院士許智宏教授專題講座：科技倫理和科學家的社會責任；“校訓杯”征文集發佈會中科院院士、原北大校長、澳科大榮譽博士許智宏教授/校、院各級領導、全校師生通識教育部、人文 藝術學院、圖書館 聯合主辦12 3月27日15週年校慶系列活動之 與榮譽博士座談會與榮譽博士真情對話：勇於探索積極人生朱道本、許智宏、薛其坤三位中科院 院士/校領導及300余師生大學13 3月27日15週年校慶系列活動之 榮譽博士學位頒授典禮頒授榮譽博士學位予五位世界傑出科學家中聯辦、特派員公署、特區政府领导 及全校師生大學14 4月2日校慶系列活動之 學術研討會全球檔案中的澳門 兩岸三地專家學者 社會和文化研究所15 4月15日 青年論壇世界青年創業論壇 2015 - 澳門站： “跨越國際•共創新機”兩岸四地相關專家、高校青年學生 與澳門青年澳門青年聯合會、 澳科大創業就業 發展中心聯合主辦16 4月26日 音樂會 小提琴獨奏音樂會 澳門樂團小提琴家王灝先生 大學藝術團17 5月6-7日 國際學術研討會金磚國家組織機制化進程與澳門平臺角色研究金磚五國與本澳專家學者 社會和文化研究所18 5月8日 學術講座 經濟結構調整與增長動力轉換著名經濟學家、清華大學經濟管理學院中國與世界經濟研究中心主任、中國人民銀行貨幣政策委員會委員李稻葵教授/澳科大師生、澳門經濟學會、本澳多家銀行代表商學院19 5月 校園創業系列活動園創業課程；校園創業計劃書比賽；校園創業攤位比賽；科大印記-紀念品設計大賽应届本科及研究生毕业生澳科大創業就業 發展中心20 5月14日 發佈會 澳門社會和文化基礎研究成果發佈 兩地相關專家學者 社會和文化研究所21 5月19日 發佈會 2015中國（澳門）城市競爭力發佈 兩地有關專家學者中國社會科學院財經戰略研究院城市與競爭力研究中心聯合澳科大社會和文化研究所主辦
74第 9 卷 第 1 期 澳 門 科 技 大 學 學 報 Vol.9 No.12015 年 6 月 30 日 Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology June 30, 2015 我國財產保險公司償付能力預警模型研究熊逸柳1，伍向豪2*（1.長沙金融業聯合會專委會工作部，長沙；2.澳門科技大學商學院，澳門）摘要： 保險公司作為我國金融業的“四大支柱＂之一，其經營穩定性對國民經濟穩定發展具有重要影響。近年來，隨著保險行業的不斷創新與發展，保險公司所面臨的風險也更加複雜多樣，償付能力不足狀況時有發生。本文搜集了2009～2012年24家中資財產保險公司的財務數據，結合國內外償付能力預警研究及我國償付能力監管指標，選取了10個影響償付能力的因素作為預警指標。首先將財產保險公司按照償付能力充足率是否達到100%分為兩類通過面板數據Logistic回歸模型進行分析，發現再保險率對償付能力充足率有顯著的正向影響。之後，將財產保險公司按照償付能力充足率是否達到100%分為兩類，運用R軟件中的Rattle包進行決策樹和隨機森林的預警模型構建，都顯示出了很好的預測效果，但隨機森林模型的泛化能力更強。繼而，依據現實情況將保險公司分三類監管的要求，本文又構建了三分類隨機森林模型，對測試數據的預測準確率達93.75%。關鍵詞： 財產保險公司；償付能力預警；決策樹；隨機森林；固定效應模型The Study of Insolvency Prediction Models for Chinese Property Insurance CompaniesYiliu XIONG1, Shianghau WU2*( 1. Executive Department of Professional Committee, Changsha Financial Association, Changsha, China;2. School of Business, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, China )AAstractt: As one of the “four pillars” in Chinese financial industry, insurance companies have the essential influence on the stable development of national economy. With the growth of insurance industry, its external risk has become a more challenging problem, and the insolvency issue occurs. In this paper, financial data of 24 Chinese property insurance companies were collected from the year 2009 to 2012. In consideration of the past study of insolvency prediction and the solvency regulatory indices, 10 factors that had impact on insolvency were selected as relative variables. Then the result of Panel Data Logistic Regression Model showed reinsurance raio had significant positive effect on solvency. In order to make the classification analysis, property insurance companies were divided into two categories depending on whether its solvency ratio reached 100%. The Rattle package in R was applied to build Decision Trees and Random Forests Model, which all showed satisfied prediction results, but the generalization ability of Random Forests was better. Then, referring to the actual regulatory requirement, property insurance companies were grouped into three classes to construct a Random Forest Model, the accuracy of prediction of this model is 93.75%. eyyordst: Property insurance company; Insolvency prediction; Decision Trees; Random Forests; Fixed Effect Model收稿日期：2015-03-16；修訂日期：2015-04-22。* 通訊作者：伍向豪，男，博士，澳門科技大學商學院副教授，主要研究方向：經濟學、管理學。E-mail: shwu@must.edu.mo，Tel:（853）88972399
86但由於投資領域和管道的不斷拓寬，市場主體的增加和競爭程度的提高，以及保險產品隨著消費者需求日趨多元化等因素，保險市場面臨的風險環境變化對財險公司的償付能力進行著巨大考驗。因此《中國第二代償付能力監管制度體系整體框架》要求保險公司應推行靜態和動態相結合的預警系統，除了依靠過去經營業績來判定現在和將來的償付能力外，更應充分考慮未來經營環境發生的非預期性變化。因此構建有效的償付能力預警機制應建立在對未來預估風險的基礎上。（4） 加強保險公司內部風險管理控制以強化資本約束前文提到保險業務的快速增長和面臨的風險環境提升了對保險公司資本金和償付能力的要求。在我國，一般出現償付能力不足的保險公司主要採取外部增資和發債的方式，但通常外部管道並不通暢，因此監管機構應該引導和激勵保險公司從內部出發，採取積極的內部風險管理措施，加強自身償付能力管理。例如要求保險公司強化資產和負債風險管理，防範和控制財務風險及市場風險；逐步建立和完善內部風險評估制度、控制制度、和轉移制度等，防範和控制承保風險和運營風險等。附 錄本研究所取樣的保險公司包含中國人民財產保險股份有限公司、中國人壽財產保險股份有限公司、太平財產保險有限公司、民安財產保險有限公司、中國大地財產保險股份有限公司、中國平安財產保險股份有限公司、中國太平洋財產保險股份有限公司、陽光財產保險股份有限公司、天安保險股份有限公司、大眾保險股份有限公司、永安財產保險股份有限公司、華安財產保險股份有限公司、永誠財產保險股份有限公司、安信農業保險股份有限公司、安華農業保險股份有限公司、天平汽車保險股份有限公司、陽光農業相互保險公司、中銀保險有限公司、渤海財產保險股份有限公司、都邦財產保險股份有限公司、華農財產保險股份有限公司、鼎和財產保險股份有限公司、英大泰和財產保險股份有限公司及國元農業保險股份有限公司。參 考 文 獻[1] 王偉. 2001.監管國際化：瞄準償付能力[J]. 中國保險，(4)，34.[2] National Association of Insurance Commissioners, Risk-based capital general overview, July 2009, http://www.naic.org/cipr_topics/topic_risk_based_capital.htm[3] Solvency II, European Parliament, Council, 25 November 2009,Chapter Ⅵ, Section 2, Article 76. ec.europa.eu/internal_market/insurance/index_en.htm.[4] 中國第二代償付能力監管制度體系整體框架.保監發〔2013〕42號.[5] Trieschmann, James S. and Pinches, George E. 1973.A multivariate model for predicting financially distressed P-L insurers[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,40(3):327-338.[6] Pinches, George E. and Trieschmann, James S.1977.Communications and notes discriminant analysis, classification results, and financially distressed P-L insurers[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,44(2): 289-298.[7] Harrington, Scott E. and Nelson, Jack M.1986.A regression-based methodology for solvency surveillance in the property- liability insurance industry[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,53(4): 583-605.[8] Ambrose, Jan Mills and Seward, J. Allen, Best's Ratings.1988.Financial ratios and prior probabilities in insolvency prediction[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,55(2): 229-244.[9] 呂長江，周縣華，楊家樹.2006.保險公司償付能力惡化預測研究[J].財經研究，32(10):80-91.[10] BarNiv, Ran and Hershbarger, Robert A.1990.Classifying financial distress in the life insurance industry[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,57(1):110-136.[11] Lee, Suk Hun and Urrutia, Jorge L.1996.Analysis and prediction of insolvency in the property-liability insurance industry: A comparison of Logit and Hazard models[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,63(1): 121-130.[12] 占夢雅.2005.我國保險償付能力監管指標體系的實證檢驗[J].上海金融，(11):39-41.[13] 周晶晗，趙桂芹. 2007.我國產險公司財務惡化預警研究—基於Logistic模型[J].經濟科學，(3)：113-123. [14] Yong-Duck, Kim, Anderson, Dan R., Amburgey, Terry L. and Hickman, James C.1995.The use of event history analysis to examine insurer insolvencies[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance, 62(1):94-110.[15] Brockett, Patrick L., Cooper, William W., Golden, Linda L. and Utai Pitaktong.1994.A neural network method for obtaining an early warning of insurer insolvency[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,61(3):402-424.[16] Brockett, Patrick L., Golden, Linda L., Jang, Jaeho and Yang, Chuanhou.2006.A comparison of neural network, statistical methods, and variable choice for life insurers' financial distress prediction[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,73(3): 397-419.[17] 毛宏. 2001.保險企業償付能力的監控[J].運籌與管理，10(2):144-148.[18] 粟芳，俞自由. 2001.非壽險償付能力影響因素的實證分析[J].財經
87熊逸柳，等 我國財產保險公司償付能力預警模型研究研究，27(7):23-27. [19] 施建祥，韓雪. 2009.基於決策樹方法的我國財險公司償付能力預測研究[C].保險學術獲獎成果匯編（2008）.pp.23-33. [20] 尚穎，李浩然，賈士彬. 2011.我國財險公司償付能力預警機制研究-基於有序響應模型的實證分析[J].浙江金融，(10):62-65.[21] 江生忠. 2007.保險學理論研究[M].中國金融出版社，pp.457-461.[22] 保險企業管理暫行條例.國發(1985)33號.[23] 保險公司最低償付能力及監管指標管理規定.保監發[2001]53號.[24] 保險公司償付能力額度及監管指標管理規定.保監會令（2003）1號.[25] 保險公司償付能力管理規定.保監會令2008年第1號.[26] 施建祥，韓雪. 2009.基於決策樹方法的我國財險公司償付能力預測研究[C].保險學術獲獎成果匯編（2008）.pp.23-33.[27] Wlliams, Graham.2011. Data mining with Rattle and R: The art of excavating data for knowledge discovery[M].Springer.pp.205-268.[28] 林成德，彭國蘭. 2007.隨機森林在企業信用評估指標體系確定中的應用[J].廈門大學學報（自然科學版），46(2):199-203.[29] 方匡南，朱建平，謝邦昌. 2010.基於隨機森林方法的基金收益率方向預測與交易策略研究[J].經濟經緯.(2):61-65.[30] 江鋒.2012.基於隨機森林的上市公司財務舞弊識別研究[J].合作經濟與科技.(20):83-84.[31] 胡曉花. 中國人壽保險股份有限公司償付能力影響因素研究[D]. 北京：對外經濟貿易大學保險學院，2014. [32] 張昌磊. 2009. 非壽險公司最低償付能力資本設置中的再保險問題研究. 精算通訊[J]，(7)，3.[33] 劉暢. 2004. 因數分析法在我國壽險公司償付能力監測中的應用. 統計與決策[J]，150-151.[34] 劉超群. 我國財險公司償付能力預警機制研究[D]. 浙江工商大學，2012.[35] 王艷，崔華清，姚寅. 2010. 保險業償付能力預警研究綜述. 財金月刊[J]， 87-88. [36] 徐國祥，李宇海，王博. 2008. 我國保險公司經營狀況綜合評價研究. 統計研究[J]，25(4)，76-81. [37] Henningsen, Arne and Toomet, Ott 2011. maxLik: A package for maximum likelihood estimation in R. Computational Statistics [J], 26(3), 443-458. 服务澳门澳門科技大學創新成果產業化 澳門科技大學創新成果產業化：一个科技創投项目的合作協議簽約儀式於6月19日假澳科大舉行。澳科大一直提倡科研既要頂天也要立地，頂天的研究就是要在學術領域有所創新有所建樹，這就要求不斷有頂尖的論文發佈，解決世界級的學術課題；立地的研究就是要解決社會上遇到的難題，不斷推陳出新為社會服務。從科研過程來講，這是創新的上游和下游的問題，創新的上游主要是基礎研究和應用基礎研究，是解決一些理論問題或者理論應用問題，下游則是應用研究或工程技術研究，是將理論創新地應用到實踐中，運用到工程上，造福社會。澳門科技大學是以應用科技為特色的綜合性大學，除了要做好應用基礎研究，還要做好應用工程研究。特區政府一直倡議產業多元以及鼓勵科技創新創業，以配合澳门的發展需求。近年來，澳科大的優秀應用成果逐步湧現，並開始推向市場。安信通科技（澳門）有限公司是澳門科技大學近年致力推動科研成果產業化而推動組建的產業化實體，主要圍繞資訊系統的身份識別與安全核證（Identification）開展產品研發，核心技術包括：逆向二次認證技術、大數據分析技術、社交網特徵識辨技術等。推出市場的產品主要有：密碼管理器、會展註冊雲平台等。 Singou－基於逆向二次認證技術的密碼管理器這一款產品推出市面僅三個月，已有過萬下載量。現代社會，登入和密碼是每個人的必需品，但是密碼管理長期困擾人們。Singou產品能夠有效、安全地解決密碼管理問題，同時，根本地解決了單點登入（Single Sign-in）的這一長期困擾資訊用戶的問題。創新的逆向二次認證技術已經在申請發明專利保護，該技術是解決密碼安全保存、安全使用的核心技術。密碼安全管理、防止釣魚／假網站問題都在Singou 創新技術下，得到很好的解決。Singou APP的下載網站為info.mo。基於Singou安全技術，安信通還推出了會展註冊雲平台，適合會議展覽的參會者註冊、繳費、簽到、統計等。這次新聞發佈會上，安信通公司於澳門會議展覽業協會、澳門展貿協會、澳門廣告商會、深圳產學研合作促進會簽署協議，合作推動會展雲平台發展。簽約的四家協會的會員舉辦的小型會議（100人以下），可以免費使用Singou的會展註冊雲平台服務。另外，安信通公司剛剛獲得了澳門南通信託投資有限公司的科技投資。通過科技金融，來促進科技成果產業化是一條值得探討的路徑。
88第 9 卷 第 1 期 澳 門 科 技 大 學 學 報 Vol.9 No.12015 年 6 月 30 日 Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology June 30, 2015 所有權性質轉變與企業投資-現金依賴性——基於中國上市公司的實證研究馬如飛*，翟鵬翔（澳門科技大學商學院，澳門）摘要： 本文從動態的角度檢驗了所有權性質轉變如何影響企業投資對內部資金的依賴性。研究發現，國有控股企業轉變為非國有控股企業會減少其投資對現金的依賴性，而非國有控股企業轉變為國有控股企業則增加了其投資對現金的依賴性。研究還發現，國有控股企業所有權性質的轉變後，企業過度投資部分對現金的依賴性大幅度降低，而非國有控股企業所有權性質的轉變則導致過度投資部分對現金的依賴性出現顯著的增加。本文的研究結果為國有控股企業的過度投資假說提供了直接的證據，同時也表明轉變企業的所有權性質能夠有效的減少國有控股企業的過度投資行為。關鍵詞： 所有權性質；投資-現金依賴性；現金持有；過度投資Change of Oynership and Firms' Investment-cash Dependencet: Empirical Analysis Based Chinese Listed CompaniesRufei MA*, Pengxiang ZHAI( School of Business, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, China )AAstractt: This paper examines the effect of the change of ownership on the dependence of firms’ investment on cash holding dynamically. The result finds evidences supporting that the change of ownership of state-controlled firms reduces the dependence of investments on cash holdings, and the change of ownership of non state-controlled firms increases the dependence of investments on cash holdings. This paper also finds that the dependence of overinvestments on cash holdings decreases after the state-controlled firms change to non state-controlled firms and the dependence rises after the non state-controlled firms change to state-controlled firms. This result provides supporting evidences of the overinvestment hypothesis, which also indicates that the change of ownership can reduce the overinvestment of state-controlled firms.eyyordst: Ownership; Investment-cash dependence; Cash holding; Overinvestment收稿日期：2015-03-18；修訂日期：2015-04-24。*通訊作者：馬如飛，男，管理學博士，助理教授，主要研究公司治理、企業融資與創新等。E-mail: rfma@must.edu.mo, Tel: 00853-889728760 引言所有權性質是影響企業能否獲取外部資金的重要影響因素。由於政府對國有控股企業貸款的隱性擔保和政府直接干預貸款等原因，國有控股企業在獲取銀行貸款等外部資金方面相比於非國有控股企業存在明顯的優勢（江偉和李斌，2006[1]；Brandt 和 Li，2003[2]）。理論上，外部融資受到約束的非國有控股企業應該更依賴於內部資金。但羅琦、肖文翀和夏新平（2007）[3] 以及馬國臣、李鑫和孫靜（2008）[4] 卻發現，外部融
89馬如飛，等 所有權性質轉變與企業投資-現金依賴性資受到較少約束的國有控股企業對內部資金的依賴性卻更強，這種現象被解釋為國有控股企業更傾向於過度投資。然而，現有的研究大多從靜態的角度討論企業投資對內部資金的依賴性，忽略了企業所有權性質的轉變對這種依賴性的影響。在過去的幾十年中，意識到國有企業在經營管理方面的低效率，中國政府一直推行“國退民進”的私有化戰略。儘管在特殊的產業領域政府也通過政府或國有企業控股從而實現對某些企業的國有控制，但私有化仍然是未來中國企業改革的重要戰略。中國企業所有權性質的改變為我們從動態的角度研究所有權性質對企業投資 - 現金依賴性提供了機會。本文利用中國上市公司數據檢驗了企業所有權性質轉變對投資 - 現金依賴性的影響。為了避免現金持有與企業投資可能存在的內生性問題，本文採用三階段最小二乘法（3SLS）估計企業投資對現金的依賴性。本文首先從動態的角度檢驗了企業所有權性質的轉變是否會影響企業投資對內部資金的依賴性。估計的結果顯示，國有控股企業轉變為非國有控股企業之後，其投資對現金持有的依賴性比轉變之前顯著降低了，而非國有控股企業轉變為國有控股企業後，其投資對內部資金的依賴卻顯著增加了。本文進一步檢驗國有控股企業更高的投資 - 現金依賴性是否由過度投資所導致的，以及企業的過度投資會不會因為企業所有權性質的轉變而發生變化。本文借鑑 Richardson（2006）[5] 的方法得到企業的過度投資部分，並重新估計現金持有對過度投資部分的解釋度。研究發現，當國有控股企業轉變為非國有控股企業之後，企業過度投資部分對現金的依賴性幾乎降低為零。而非國有控股企業轉變為國有控股企業之後，過度投資部分對現金持有的依賴性則出現顯著的增大。這一結果為過度投資假說提供了直接的證據，即國有控股企業更傾向于投資於無效率的項目，同時這也意味著轉變企業的所有權性質可能能夠有效地減少國有控股企業的過度投資行為。本文剩下的內容安排如下，本文第二部分回顧相關的文獻，第三部分介紹文章的研究方法和數據，第四部分析實證的結果，最後部分對全文進行簡要的總結。1 文獻回顧建立在完美資本市場假設基礎上的公司金融理論認為，企業可以自由地為其正的淨現值項目融資，因此企業的投資與其融資方式無關。然而，由於企業內外部資訊不對稱，現實中企業從外部融資的成本高於內部融資的成本（Myers 和Majluf，1984）[6]，這意味著企業外部融資與內部融資不存在完全的替代性。Fazzari et al.（1988）[7]指出，當企業的外部融資成本明顯高於內部融資的成本時（或者企業外部融資受到約束時），企業的投資更加依賴於內部資金。因此，Fazzari et al.（1988）[7] 認為，投資對內部資金的依賴性在一定程度上反映了企業融資的約束程度。Opler et al.（1999）[8] 討論了企業持有現金的影響因素。他們發現風險更大的公司、小企業等融資相對困難的企業以及現金流風險較大的企業持有更多的現金，而更容易進入資本市場的企業，例如大企業和有良好信用的企業，則持有相對較少的現金。Almeida et al.（2004）[9] 以及連玉君、彭方平和蘇治（2010）[10] 發現，融資受到約束的企業具有更高的現金 - 現金流依賴性。Almeida et al.（2004）[9] 将企業的現金持有量解释为綜合考慮持有現金的成本和收益的結果。融資受到約束的企業持有現金有助於及時對未來的投資機會做出反應，因此即使持有現金會增加成本企業也會從現金流中保留更多的現金。而外部融資不受約束的企業可以隨時為其投資機會融資，企業也沒有持有現金的必要，其現金持有與現金流之間不存在系統的關係。在中國，非國有控股企業在獲取銀行貸款等外部資金方面相比於國有控股企業存在明顯的劣勢（江偉和李斌，2006[1] ；Brandt 和 Li，2003[2]），這種劣勢使得非國有控股企業不得不依
96參 考 文 獻[1] 江偉，李斌. 制度環境. 國有產權與銀行差別貸款. 金融研究，2006（11）:116-126。[2] Brandt, L., Li H.B, Bank discrimination in transition economics: ideology, information, or incentives? , Journal of Comparative Economics, 2003, 31(3):387-413．[3] 羅琦，肖文翀，夏新平. 融資約束抑或過度投資：中國上市企業投資—現金流敏感度的經驗證據. 中國工業經濟，2007（9）:103-110。[4] 馬國臣，李鑫，孫靜. 中國製造業上市公司投資-現金流高依賴性實證研究. 中國工業經濟，2008（10）：109-118。[5] Richardson. S, Over-investment of free cash flow, Review of Accounting Studies, 2006, 11 (2-3):159-189.[6] Myers, S., N. Majluf, Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have Information That Investors do not have, Journal of Financial Economics, 1984, 13(2):187–221.[7] Fazzari, S. M., R. G. Hubbard, and B. C. Petersen, Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment, Brooking papers on economic Activity, 1988(1):141-195.[8] Opler, T., L. Pinkowitz, R. M. Stulz, and R. Willianmson, The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings, Journal of Financial Economics, 1999, 52(1):3-46.[9] Almeida, H., M. Campello and M. S. Weisbach, The cash flow sensitivity of cash, Journal of Finance, 2004, 59(4):1777-1804.[10] 連玉君，彭方平，蘇治. 融資約束與流動性管理行為. 金融研究，2010（10）:158-171。[11] 羅琦，許俏輝. 大股東控制公司影響現金持有量的實證分析. 統計研究，2009,26（11）：93-99。[12] 陳德球，李思飛，王叢. 政府質量、終極產權與公司現金持有. 管理世界，2001（11）：127-141。[13] Mikkelson, W., M. Partch, Do Persistent Large Cash Reserves Hinder Performance?, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2003, 38(2):275–294.[14] Faulkender, M., R.Wang, Corporate financial policy and the value of cash, The Journal of Finance, 2006, 61(4):1957-1990.[15] Denis, D. J., V. Sibilkov, Financial constraints, Investment, and the value of cash Holdings, The Reviews of Financial Studies, 2010, 23(1):247-269.[16] Jensen, M, Agency costs of the free cash flow, corporate finance and takeovers, American Economic Review, 1986,76(2):323–329.[17] Dittmar, A., J. Mahrt-Smith, and H. Servaes, International Corporate Governance and Corporate Cash Holdings, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2003, 38(1):111–133.[18] Kalcheva, I., K. Lins, International evidence on cash holdings and expected managerial agency problems, The Reviews of Financial Studies, 2007, 20(4):1087-1112.[19] Harford, J., S. A. Mansi, and W. F. Maxwell. Corporate Governance and a Firm Cash Holdings in the US, Journal of Financial Economics, 2008, 87(3):535–55.[20] Dittmar, A., J. Mahrt-Smith, Corporate Governance and the Value of Cash Holdings, Journal of Financial Economics, 2007, 83(3):599–634.[21] Lang, L., E. Ofek, and R. M. Stulz, Leverage, investment, and firm growth, Journal of Financial Economics, 1996, 40(1):3-29.兩岸四地珠澳校企合作助推澳門青年在横琴創業發展4月20日，珠海橫琴發展有限責任公司、澳門科技大學在橫琴簽署《共同在橫琴新區打造澳門科技大學青年創新創業基地合作備忘錄》。作為粵港澳緊密合作示範區，橫琴新區成立以來，積極為澳門企業和澳門青年發展創造條件，大力促進澳門產業多元發展，為澳門的文化創意、會展等優勢產業提供發展空間。作為粵澳合作框架協議下的首個重點啟動專案，橫琴的粵澳合作產業園已經進駐一批澳門企業。“橫琴澳門青年創業谷”作為新區推進粵澳合作的又一重點專案，將重點引導和扶持澳門青年創業就業，進一步密切橫琴、澳門兩地人員往來和產業合作。澳門科技大學建校於2000年，已成為澳門規模最大的綜合型大學，也是兩岸四地最年輕的百強大學，目前各類在校生逾萬人，其中全日制博士及碩士研究生逾2200人，本科生約8000人。2010年，澳門科技大學正式成立了“創業就業發展中心”，希望提升本校學生整體競爭力，推動與扶持學生創業創新項目落地。到2015年，中心已成功孵化和推動了澳門科技大學學生及校友的眾多創業創新專案。項目合作雙方將借助橫琴新區廣闊平臺，充分發揮澳門科技大學創業創新中心在支持青年創業方面的資源優勢，在橫琴新區共同打造“政、產、學、研、孵”一體化的“澳門科技大學青年創新創業基地”（以下簡稱“基地”）。該合作專案是“橫琴澳門青年創業谷”的首個澳門方面的簽約項目。
97第 9 卷 第 1 期 澳 門 科 技 大 學 學 報 Vol.9 No.12015 年 6 月 30 日 Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology June 30, 2015 Received 21 May 2015; Revised 16 Jun. 2015*Xiaolei Tang: corresponding author, Ph.D. Research field: international finance, monetary policy. Assistant professor in finance, School of Business, Macau University of Science and Technology. Email: xltang@must.edu.mo, Tel: 00853-88972904.Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Adjustment of RMBt: A Threshold Cointegration AnalysisXiaolei TANG1*, Jizhong ZHOU2( 1.School of Business, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, China ) ( 2.School of Finance, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai, China)AAstractt: This paper tests for threshold cointegrating relationship between the equilibrium real exchange rate of the Chinese currency (RMB) and its fundamentals based on the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach using quarterly data over the period 1994Q1-2009Q4. We find that the RMB real equilibrium exchange rate is mainly determined by such fundamentals as productivity, terms of trade, economic openness, and government expenditure. The estimated equilibrium exchange rate is then used as a benchmark to assess the degree of misalignment of actual exchange rate. We also find threshold characteristic in the adjustment process of misalignment errors.eyyordst: Equilibrium real exchange rate; Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate; Threshold cointegration; Exchange rate misalignment.人民幣實際匯率的錯配與調整：基於BEER 的門檻協整分析湯曉雷1*，周繼忠2（1. 澳門科技大學商學院，澳門 2. 上海財經大學金融學院，上海）摘要： 本文選取1994年至2009年之間的季度資料作為樣本，基於BEER方法分析了人民幣實際均衡匯率與經濟基本面因素的門檻協整關係，結果發現人民幣實際均衡匯率主要由生產力、貿易條件、經濟開放度和政府開支等基本變量決定。然後本文以估計的均衡匯率為基準判斷人民幣匯率的錯配程度。本文還發現了人民幣匯率錯配誤差調整過程非線性特徵。關鍵詞： 均衡實際匯率；行為均衡匯率，門檻協整，匯率錯配。 0 IntroductionWith the rapid growth of China's foreign trade, the exchange rate of its currency, Renminbi (henceforth RMB), has attracted much attention from the academic, policy makers and practitioners. In particular, as the United States experienced substantial trade deficit with China, there exist some critics blaming the undervaluation of RMB for the large trade imbalance. More recently, a similar statement that RMB is unfairly undervalued shows up again in the international stage. However, this claim is irrelevant unless solid evidence of substantial undervaluation of RMB is found. Is RMB truly undervalued? And, if yes, by how much? The best way to answer these questions is to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB,
98which can serve as a benchmark for assessing the degree of misalignment of the actual exchange rate, and this assessment can provide some useful guidance for the making of China's foreign exchange policy. In this paper we explore the potential nonlinear relationship between the adjustment of RMB exchange rate and its misalignment from levels consistent with economic fundamentals. This paper differs from the existing research in two aspects. Firstly and most importantly, unlike the existing literature based on linear cointegration analyses, for the first time we combine the BEER approach with a threshold cointegration analysis to explore a nonlinear long-term relationship between equilibrium exchange rates and fundamentals. Secondly, when calculating variables in effective terms, unlike the existing literature in which time-invariant weights are assigned to trading partners over the whole sample period, the weights are calculated according to the top ten trading partners' shares in China's foreign trade, and the weights vary over time. In doing so, the calculated variables can capture more precisely the dynamics of the RMB exchange rate as well as of other economic factors. The rest of the paper is arranged as follows. Section 1 reviews the important literature. Section 2 introduces the empirical methodology. Section 3 explains and discusses the empirical results. Section 4 summarizes the main findings of the paper.1 Literature revieyEquilibrium exchange rates can be estimated using various methods.1 The Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach introduced by Clark and Macdonald (1998) [3] is one of the most commonly adopted methods and has been applied to study the exchange rates of a wide range of international currencies. The concept of Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) was first introduced by Clark and Macdonald (1998) [3] and further improved by Clark and Macdonald (2004) [4], Macdonald (2000) [14], and Macdonald and Swagel (2000) [15]. Since then the 1. See, among others, Williamson (1994) [16] and Montiel (1999) [18].BEER approach has been widely employed to analyse equilibrium exchange rates of many currencies.Basically, the BEER approach uses econometric methods to establish a behavioral link between the real equilibrium exchange rate and relevant economic fundamentals. Clark and Macdonald (1998) [3] and Clark and MacDonald (2004) [4] estimate the equilibrium exchange rates of 3 currencies (U.S. Dollar, German Mark and Japanese Yen) using the BEER approach. Their results show that fundamentals such as terms of trade, government debt, the Balassa-Samuelson effect, and net foreign assets has significant impacts on real equilibrium exchange rates of these three currencies. Montiel (1999) [16] develops a model that synthesizes previous models of the equilibrium real exchange rate. According to Montiel (1999) [16], the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate is determined by the steady-state values of the predetermined variables and permanent values of both policy variables and exogenous variables. The variables that may act as long-run determinants include four components. First, domestic supply-side factors and particularly the Balassa–Samuelson effect arising from faster productivity growth in the tradable goods sector than in the non-tradable goods sector are considered. Second, fiscal policy, such as permanent changes in the composition of government spending between tradable and non-tradable goods, is relevant. Third, changes in the international economic environment, including changes in an economy's external terms of trade, the flow of external transfer, the world inflation rate, and the level of the world real interest rates, are important. Fourth, the liberalization of commercial policy, for example, a reduction in export subsidies, may affect the long-run real exchange rate.There are also some research works applying it to the RMB equilibrium exchange rate. For example, Zhang (2001) [19] applies the BEER approach to estimate the RMB equilibrium exchange rate and its misalignment using annual data over the period 1955~1999. Coudert and Couharde (2007) [6] assess misalignment of RMB using a Purchasing Power
99Xiaolei TANG, et al Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Adjustment of RMB: A Threshold Cointegration AnalysisParity (PPP) criterion corrected by a Balassa-Samuelson effect based on a data sample that covers only 5 years. A common feature of the existing literature is that they assume a linear cointegrating relationship between exchange rates and economic fundamentals, which also implies linear and instantaneous adjustment of exchange rates in responses to misalignment, thus completely ignoring potential nonlinearity in the adjustment mechanism. This paper attempts to fill this gap by exploring a nonlinear long-term relationship between equilibrium exchange rates and fundamentals. 2 Empirical methodology2.1 Threshold cointegrationThe conventional concept of linear cointegration assumes implicitly that the adjustment of the deviations towards the long-run equilibrium is made linearly and instantaneously at each period. However, no economic theory justifies that only linear and instantaneous adjustment can happen. Actually the presence of transaction costs implies that adjustment will occur only when deviations are larger than the transaction costs, and hence adjustment should not happen instantaneously at each time. Even in highly liquid markets deviations of asset prices are sometimes too small to trigger profitable arbitrages, so the so-called neutral band of no arbitrage does exist. Moreover, exchange rate intervention is often activated only when the deviation from some target becomes significant. All these observations point to the possible existence of nonlinear adjustment.Balke and Fomby (1997) [2] introduce the concept of threshold cointegration as an extension of linear cointegration. In their framework, the adjustment does not need to occur instantaneously but only once the deviation exceeds some critical threshold. They base their adjustment process on the self-exciting threshold autoregressive model (SETAR) introduced by Chan (1993) [5]. In the SETAR model, the autoregressive coefficients take different values depending on whether the previous value is above or under a certain threshold value, thus exhibiting regime switching dynamics. Suppose and are cointegrated with as the cointegrating vector, where . The long-run relationship can be written as: (1)where is the deviation from equilibrium, a l so ca l l ed equ i l ib r ium e r ro r in l i t e ra tu re . The conventional linear cointegration assumes that follows a linear autoregressive (AR) process: (2)In contrast, threshold cointegration proposed by Balke and Fomby (1997) [2] assumes that follows a SETAR process as: (3)where subscripts i =1, 2, ..., m refer to the i-th regime, is the i-th intercept, is polynomial of lag operator L, and is random disturbance with zero mean and standard deviation , is the threshold, and integer d represents the delay in the error correction process, meaning that economic agents react to the deviation from equilibrium with a time lag of d periods.22.2 Model specificationBased on the theory of BEER and guided by Montiel (1999) [16], we test for the cointegrating relationship between the RMB exchange rate and fundamentals using the following model: (4)where reer denotes real effective exchange rate, prod denotes productivity differential, tot denotes terms of trade, open denotes trade openness, and gexp denotes government expenditure. The definitions and calculation of these variables are detailed in subsection 2.3. ( i = 0,1,2,3,4) are a constant and the 2. Note that we may use an external variable xt-d instead of the equilibrium error εt-d as transition variable. In this case we will model the adjustment process of equilibrium error using a TAR model instead of a SETAR model.
100coefficients of these variables respectively.The adjustment process of error term series is assumed to follow a SETAR model like (3). Specifically, we set the delay value at d =1, is assumed to follow an AR process of order in regime i, and is not necessarily the same across individual regimes; the order and the number of regimes m are to be determined by specification tests.As argued by Balke and Fomby (1997) [2], the threshold nonlinearity of error terms, , does not affect the order of integration of the variables under consideration. In the special threshold cointegration case suggested by Balke and Fomby (1997) [2], the cointegrating relationship is still assumed to be linear, only the equilibrium error series is supposed to follow a SETAR process. Put another way, only the adjustment process towards equilibrium exhibits threshold nonlinearity. As a result, standard time series analyses used for linear cointegration are still asymptotically valid for the case of threshold cointegration.Following the approach of Balke and Fomby (1997) [2], we will carry out the analysis in two steps. In step one, we first use Johansen's cointegration test to identify the long-run cointegrating relationships between the RMB real exchange rate and economic fundamentals, and then obtain the residual series to be used for the test of threshold behaviour. In step two, we first use the test method proposed by Hansen (1999) [11] to determine the number of the regimes. Specifically, we test the null hypothesis of linear AR with 1 regime, also labelled SETAR(1), against the alternative of SETAR(2) with 2 regimes or SETAR(3) with 3 regimes. If the null hypothesis is rejected, we then proceed to estimate the threshold and parameters by conditional least squares (CLS). That is, we estimate the threshold autoregression for the given values of threshold and delay and then find the true values of threshold and delay by minimizing the sum of squared errors. In this way, we can better investigate the potential nonlinear adjustment of exchange rates of RMB, which can't be done by using traditional linear methods.To sum up, our route for empirical study is as follows: First, we use Johansen's cointegration test to identify the long-run equilibrium relationship between the RMB real exchange rate and economic fundamentals as specified in equation (4), and we estimate the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate. Second, we use this estimated equilibrium exchange rates as benchmark to assess the misalignment of RMB exchange rate. Third, we further carry out a SETAR test to investigate the nonlinearity in the adjustment process of exchange rate misalignment.2.3 Data and variaAlesWe use qua r t e r ly da t a ove r t he pe r iod 1994Q1~2009Q4 for our empirical analysis. Since the real effective exchange rate is a relative price, and its determinants will have some effects only if they change their values relative to foreign counterparts, we express each variable as the ratio of the domestic value relative to its foreign counterpart. Just like we calculate the effective exchange rate, the value of the foreign variable is a geometric weighted average of the trading partners' corresponding values, with the weights being identified as each trading partner's share in China's total foreign trade. Specifically, we first sort out China's top ten trading partners based on their trade volume with China, and then calculate the weights by , where means partner i's trade with China and is China's total foreign trade with its top ten trading partners.3 By construction the weights sum up to 1. The definitions of the variables and sources of the data are as follows:(1) Real effective exchange rate (REER)C P I - b a s e d r e a l e x c h a n g e r a t e s a r e a commonly used indicator of countries' international competitiveness4. In this paper we use the multilateral CPI-based real effective exchange rate as the 3. The top ten trading partners of Mainland China varied over the sample period 1994-2009. The trading partners involved in calculation include the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Netherland, Canada, Japan, Brazil, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Russia, Romania, and Jordan.4. IMF calculates and publishes in the IFS the CPI-based trade-weighted REER.
101Xiaolei TANG, et al Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Adjustment of RMB: A Threshold Cointegration Analysisdependent variable, which is calculated as: (5) where REERt denotes the real effect ive exchange rate of RMB, P denotes consumer price indices (CPI), and R represents nominal exchange rate expressed as the price of a currency in terms of US dollars. Subscripts c and i denote China and its partner i respectively. It is clear from this definition that an increase in REER is a real effective appreciation of RMB.(2) Productivity differential (PROD)The effect of productivity differential on real exchange rates is expected to follow the Balassa-Samuelson theory (Balassa, 1964 [1], and Samuelson,1964[17]), which states that faster productivity growth in the tradable goods sector relative to the non-tradable goods sector is associated with real appreciation of the currency of a country. This effect is usually measured by the relative price of non-tradable to tradable goods, which is often proxied by CPI/PPI (PPI denotes producer price index) or by per capita GDP. Constrained by the lack of data on PPI in some countries, we follow Kim and Korhonen (2005) [13] to use per capita GDP as a proxy for productivity differential (PROD). PROD is calculated using a formula similar to (5): (6)where PCGDP refers to per capita GDP.(3) Terms of trade (TOT)5Terms of trade is defined as the relative price of a country's exports compared to its imports, usually measured by the ratio of the export unit value to the import unit value. Note that whether an improvement in a country's terms of trade leads to real appreciation of its currency is not clear. Actually, improvement in terms of trade has two opposite effects on the domestic price level. One is the income effect. If terms of trade improves, income increases accordingly. As domestic demand for non-tradable goods rises, the price of non-5. No export and import unit value data are available in China, Malaysia, and Russia, so we use instead the ratio of exports to imports as a proxy for the terms of trade.tradable goods goes up, and real appreciation of the currency follows. Another is the substitution effect. As improvement in terms of trade implies that imports are relatively cheaper, domestic demand for non-tradable goods will be at least partially substituted by that for imports, thus driving down the price of non-tradable goods and generating real depreciation of the currency. These two effects act in opposite directions, so the final impact of improvement in terms of trade on domestic price level is ambiguous. Whether the real exchange rate goes up or down depends on which effect dominates.The formula for calculating TOT is as follows: (7)where XV and MV denote export unit value and import unit value respectively.(4) Government expenditure (GEXP)6The relationship between government spending and real exchange rates have long been investigated theoretically and empirically (Frenkel and Mussa, 1988[8]; Froot and Rogoff, 1995[9]; Obstfeld and Rogoff, 1996; Fischer, 2004[7]; Kim and Korhonen, 2005[13]). In the short to medium run, if the crowding out effect of government spending is weak or the government's marginal propensity on non-tradable goods is higher than on tradable goods, a rise in government spending can lead to real exchange rate appreciation. In the longer term, however, higher government spending will most likely undermine confidence in a currency, since it could be followed by a rise in distortionary taxes with a negative impact on economic growth and the real exchange rate. Thus higher government spending may cause depreciation of the equilibrium exchange rate. This variable is calculated as the relative ratio of government expenditure to GDP using the following formula: (8)6. Quarterly data for China are not available over the period 1994~1998, so we convert the frequency of the annual data on government expenditure using the technique of converting frequency to get a complete time series.
102where GEX refers to government expenditure.(5) Trade openness (OPEN)The variable OPEN refers to degree of openness of trade, it is included to capture the effect of commercial policy on real exchange rate, and it is calculated as the ratio of the total trade (imports plus exports) to GDP. The effect of OPEN on real exchange rate is a bit ambiguous. On the one hand, if a country is more open to international trade, the country is more integrated into the world economy, then it can rely less on protection policy on foreign trade, and this will help the country's economic development, hence higher openness may lead to an appreciation of the currency. On the other hand, being open has a price, as Edwards (1994) and Elbadawi (1994) show in their model for developing country, higher openness means lower tariffs on imports, so higher openness may lead to real depreciation as a hedge against the loss of competitiveness. Kim and Korhonen (2005) [13] provide strong evidence in favor of a negative impact of OPEN on real exchange rate. The OPEN variable is calculated using the following formula: (9)where TFT refers to total foreign trade.With some exceptions specified in footnotes, the data used to calculate the above variables are directly retrieved from the IMF's database: Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) and International Financial Statistics (IFS). Data have been seasonally adjusted wherever necessary. Note that unless otherwise specified, lower case variables all denote the logarithm of the corresponding variables during the following empirical analysis, for example, reer=ln(REER).3 Empirical Results and Discussion3.1 Cointegration analysis of BEERBefore carrying out the cointegration tests, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests are performed to examine the stochastic characteristic of the series. The tests show that all series are non-stationary, but the first difference series are all stationary, i.e. all time series follow an I(1) processes, so the condition for further cointegration test is satisfied.7Table 1 reports the number of cointegrating equations indicated by both trace test and max-eigenvalue test for the sample period 1994Q1-2009Q4. The result indicates 1 cointegrating equation at the 5% significance level.The cointegrating equation is as follows: (10)where the numbers in parentheses are the t-values of the coefficients. TaAle 1. Cointegrating equation(s) indicated Ay Johansen TestsUnrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)HypothesizedNo. of CE(s)EigenvalueTraceStatisticCritical Value(5%)Prob.**None * 0.435631 73.39924 69.81889 0.0252At most 1 0.271822 37.36023 47.85613 0.3307At most 2 0.159184 17.37598 29.79707 0.6122Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)HypothesizedNo. of CE(s)EigenvalueMax-EigenStatisticCritical Value(5%)Prob.**None * 0.435631 36.03901 33.87687 0.0272At most 1 0.271822 19.98426 27.58434 0.3422At most 2 0.159184 10.92307 21.13162 0.6550Notes: 1. * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level. 2. Prob.** denotes MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values. 3. Both Akaike and Schwarz information criteria indicate the existence of intercept but no trend in the cointegrating equation. 4. the lag structure of variables is chosen according to the Schwarz Information Criterion and Hannan-Quinn Information Criterion.We can see from equation (10) that all the coefficients are significant, and the coefficient of prod is positive, meaning that productivity differential contributes positively to the change in reer. Put it another way, higher productivity relative to foreign countries causes the domestic currency to appreciate. This result is consistent with theoretical predictions based on the Balassa-Samuelson theory.8The negative sign of tot tells us that terms of 7. To save space, the ADF tests results are not reported here but can be obtained from the author.8. Coudert and Couharde (2007) do not confirm this effect in China. But as they only have five year data for empirical tests, the sample is likely too short to detect the Balassa-Samuelson effect, which is expected to be a long-run phenomenon.
103Xiaolei TANG, et al Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Adjustment of RMB: A Threshold Cointegration Analysistrade has a negative impact on the real effective exchange rate of RMB. Improvement of terms of trade has substitution effect and income effect on exchange rates, with the former driving down the rate and the latter pushing it up. Our empirical finding suggests that the negative substitution effect dominates the positive income effect, so the terms-of-trade improvement for China leads to RMB real depreciation.The elasticity of reer with respect to open is 0.794, greater than its elasticity with respect to the other three explanatory variables, indicating that economic openness play an important role in the dynamics of RMB real exchange rates. Just like other empirical studies, its sign is negative, meaning that openness of the economy generally tends to depreciate the real exchange rate, which is common to developing countries. The reason is that economic openness exposes domestic industry to foreign competition. As a way to provide some shelter, real depreciation is commonly used as a policy instrument to this effect, thus generating a negative association between open and reer. The coefficient of gexp is 0.587, indicating that government expenditure has a positive impact on real exchange rates. As a developing country, China spends most of the fiscal revenues on infrastructure to facilitate economic development, and construction of infrastructure requires huge amount of non-tradable inputs. As a result, the more the government spends on infrastructure, the higher demand for non-tradable goods. The domestic price level will be driven up, leading to real appreciation of RMB.3.2 Misalignment of RMBGiven the cointegrating relationship between the real exchange rate and economic fundamentals, we can assess the misalignment of RMB based on the BEER approach. Let denote the estimated coefficients from (10). The BEER can be calculated by substituting the observed values of variables into the following equation: (11)The current misalignment rate ( ) can be calculated as: (12)( ) is the unexplained movement in the real exchange rate, which cannot be accounted for by economic fundamentals, but rather by transitory factors and random disturbances.However, the current misalignment rate does not capture the fundamental misalignment caused by the deviation of the determinants of BEER from their own long-run equilibrium levels. Therefore, for a more precise measure of the extent of misalignment, total misalignment has to be calculated to fully reflect the deviation of the observed REER from its long-run equilibrium level. In this paper we apply the Hodrick-Prescott filter to calculate the long-run equilibrium values of the economic fundamentals, which can be used to estimate the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate.9 Let HPBEER denote the estimated long- run equ i l ib r ium BEER, then the to ta l misalignment rate ( ) is: (13)Given the definitions of and , the fundamental misalignment rate ( ) is calculated as: (14)Figure 1 presents the evolution of REER, BEER, and HPBEER for RMB over the sample period of 1994Q1~2009Q4. In general, the RMB real exchange rate, whether measured by the observed REER or the estimated long-run HPBEER, rose steadily since the sample begin, when official and market exchange rates were unified on 1 January 1994, to the onset of the Asian financial crisis in mid-1997. It more or less stabilized during 1998~2001, and then experienced gradual depreciation during the first half of this 9. Another approach is to decompose the economic fundamentals into permanent and transitory components and use only permanent components to calculate the long-run equilibrium values. See Granger and Gonzalo (1995) [10].
104decade. Finally, the RMB embarked a trend of real appreciation since the latest exchange rate policy reform in the mid of 2005, when the eight-year long de facto peg to the US dollar was formally abandoned in favour of a more flexible managed floating regime. 65 75 85 95 105 115 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 REER BEER HPBEERFigure 1. REER, BEER, and HPBEER of RMBt: 1994Q1~2009Q4It is interesting to note that the estimated BEER based only on fundamentals appears to be more volatile than the REER. This is possible if transitory or random factors often offset the movements in economic fundamentals, probably reflecting policy reactions or intentions, especially when the movements in economic fundamentals are viewed as undesirable and need to be reversed or attenuated. If this conjecture is correct, then we expect that current misalignments (which measure transitory and random factors) and fundamental misalignments (which measure deviations of economic fundamentals from their long-run levels) should be frequently of opposite signs.Figure 2 displays the current misalignment rate, the fundamental misalignment rate, and the total misalignment rate during the sample period. We do find that CMR and FMR are frequently pointing to opposite directions, and only in 12 out of 64 quarters do the two misalignment rates point to the same directions. Moreover, the average size of CMR (-0.17%) is larger in absolute value than that of FMR (0.13%). We also find that CMR is more volatile than TMR, as the standard deviation of CMR and TMR is 7.91% and 5.69%, respectively. In summary, while CMR and TMR may indicate qualitatively the same direction of misalignment most of the time, total misalignment rate tends to be more accurate, more comprehensive, and more reliable. As a result, we will mostly focus on TMR when analyzing the evolution of RMB misalignment.-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 CMRFMRTMR Figure 2. Different measures of RMB misalignment (in %)It is clear from Figure 2 that, consistent with the steady appreciation of RMB during 1994-1996 shown in Figure 1, the Chinese currency has been persistently undervalued during this time, especially at the beginning of the sample period, with the largest undervaluation of 19.4% for 1994Q1.10 A substantial 50% devaluation of the RMB official rate early 1994 may contribute to such significant undervaluation.11 In the following quarters, however, the misalignment rate fell quickly, and the RMB gained real value gradually, reaching the equilibrium level in late 1996. Actually, the misalignment of RMB has largely been eliminated starting as early as in 1996Q1. Except for the first three quarters of 1998, where the shock of the Asian financial crisis caused RMB to be overvalued by 5.5% to 7.2%, throughout the period from 1996Q1 to 2008Q2, RMB misalignment has been very modest, and the TMR stayed safely within the (-5%, 5%) interval.12 However, it is interesting to note that TMR are all above 5.7% since 2008Q3, implying persistent overvaluation of RMB amidst the chaos of the 10. If we control for transitory factors and random disturbances, the current misalignment rate is even higher and at an astonishing -34.4% for 1994Q1. 11. On January 1, 1994, China unified its official exchange rate with the market-determined rate, where the official rate was devalued by 50 %, from 5.8RMB per USD to 8.7RMB per USD, to get aligned with the market rate.12. Actually it stayed within the (-3%, 3%) interval for 39 out of 50 quarters.
105Xiaolei TANG, et al Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Adjustment of RMB: A Threshold Cointegration Analysislatest financial crisis, a phenomenon similar to what happened during the Asian financial crisis. Viewed against the backdrop of the recent row about the “undervaluation” of RMB, our finding suggests that this claim is not well supported by data. Our results are in sharp contrast with that of Coudert and Couharde (2007). We find that productivity differential contributes positively to the change in real exchange rates of RMB, indicating the existence of Balassa effect, but Coudert and Couharde (2007) do not confirm this effect for RMB. Coudert and Couharde (2007) show that China's real exchange rate was highly undervalued (between 16 and 29%) in 2002 and 2003, but we find that the RMB misalignment was not pronounced.3.3 SETAR testThe advantage of SETAR test over other linear methods is that it can investigate the potential nonlinear adjustment of exchange rates of RMB, which can't be identified by using conventional linear methods. N o w w e p r o c e e d t o t e s t f o r t h r e s h o l d characteristic of the residual series obtained from the cointegration analysis. At first we test the null hypothesis of linear AR (also labelled SETAR(1)) against the alternative SETAR(2) and SETAR(3), and then test SETAR(2) against SETAR(3). From table 2 we can see that the test statistic for the null hypothesis of SETAR(1) against SETAR(2) is significant at 5% level, but it is not significant for the test of SETAR(1) against SETAR(3), nor for the test of SETAR(2) against SETAR(3), hence linear AR and SETAR(3) model are rejected in favour of a SETAR(2) model. TaAle 2. Tests of SETAR(1) against SETAR(2) and SETAR(3), SETAR(2) against SETAR(3)Test statisticSETAR(1) vs SETAR(2) 26.81843 (0.049)SETAR(1) vs SETAR(3) 52.26448 (0.145)SETAR(2) vs SETAR(3) 17.49411 (0.542)Note: SETAR(1), SETAR(2) and SETAR(3) refer to linear AR process, SETAR with 2 regimes, and SETAR with 3 regimes, respectively.Based on the estimation results reported in table 3, the following SETAR(2) model is identified: (15)where the threshold value is -0.0397. We label the regime with as regime(L) and that with as regime(H). Regime(L) has 5 lagged terms of , among which is not significant, and regime(H) has 4 lagged terms of , with both and insignificant. The share of observations falling in regime(L) and regime(H) is 16.95% and 83.05%, respectively.TaAle 3. Estimation of the SETAR(2) modelEstimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)Const L 0.0768939 0.0308679 2.4911 0.0159657ρ(L).1 1.1246005 0.4002941 2.8094 0.0069770 ρ(L).2 0.6851062 0.3128498 2.1899 0.0330415 ρ(L).3 -1.0724838 0.2751326 -3.8981 0.0002791 ρ(L).4 0.1042790 0.3212319 0.3246 0.7467694ρ(L).5 0.5571212 0.2610358 2.1343 0.0375553 Const H 0.0134918 0.0072682 1.8563 0.0690828 ρ(H).1 0.3187520 0.1477234 2.1578 0.0355868 ρ(H).2 -0.0723380 0.1311327 -0.5516 0.5835579ρ(H).3 -0.1382664 0.1302972 -1.0612 0.2935203ρ(H).4 0.3017615 0.1289817 2.3396 0.0231814 Threshold value: -0.03972Notes:1. ρ(m).i refers to the coefficient on the ith lag in regime m, m=L, H; 2. The lag order of AR in each regime is chosen according to the Akaike Information Criterion.Unlike in the conventional linear error correction model, where the speed of adjustment is the same no matter how large the disequilibrium in the previous period (i.e., 1tε − ) is, in the SETAR(2) model given by (18) the equilibrium error evolves according to different regime specification and the adjustment process is different across different regimes. Given our estimate of the threshold value, when RMB is undervalued by more than 3.97% in the previous quarter, the adjustment process is governed by regime(L), but if RMB is undervalued by less than 3.97% or even overvalued, the adjustment process
106is governed by regime(H). This implies that, on the one hand, small undervaluation and overvaluation of RMB are viewed indifferently by economic agents and treated in the same way. The adjustment reaction is weak and less significant, as can be inferred from the relatively small absolute magnitude of the autoregressive coefficients under regime(H). On the other hand, large undervaluation triggers stronger reaction under regime(L), where the coefficients are large in absolute value and usually significant. All these suggest that large undervaluation of RMB is more important, more closely watched, and given more policy attention than small undervaluation or overvaluation.4 ConclusionsBased on the theory of BEER, this paper tests for the threshold cointegration between exchange rates and fundamentals and estimates the real equilibrium exchange rate and misalignment rate of RMB using quarterly data over the period 1994Q1-2009Q4. The empirical results show that the cointegrating relationship does exhibit a threshold characteristic through a SETAR(2) model, and the negative threshold implies that greater concern has been shown on undervaluation rather than on overvaluation of RMB. It is also shown that current misalignment rate and total misalignment rate indicate the same direction of misalignment most of the time over the sample period, while the average magnitude of the former is larger than that of the latter. We find that the RMB misalignment was not very pronounced. The misalignment rates mostly lay in the interval (-10%, 10%) and more often lay in a much narrower interval (-5%, 5%). RMB is more often overvalued rather than undervalued. And RMB was overvalued by more than 5% between 2008Q3 and 2009Q4. One important implication of our finding is that, the monetary authority should take into account the possibility of nonlinear adjustment of exchange rates in policy making. 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107第 9 卷 第 1 期 澳 門 科 技 大 學 學 報 Vol.9 No.12015 年 6 月 30 日 Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology June 30, 2015 員工建言行為研究綜述朱燕妮1,2*，程月圓1，劉瑛妮1,2（1. 澳門科技大學商學院，澳門；2. 澳門科技大學酒店與旅遊管理學院，澳門）摘要： 組織中員工的合理化建言行為能夠改善工作流程和提高組織績效，對員工個人也有積極的影響，是新世紀戰略性人力資源管理研究的一個重要部分。本文對收集到的文獻進行內容分析後，首先比較了現有文獻中對員工建言行為的概念內涵的界定，然後對建言行為的維度劃分做了回顧與總結，接下來從不同的理論視角出發梳理了建言行為的影響因素以及影響結果。本文最後探討了建言行為未來的研究方向。關鍵詞： 建言行為；組織公民行為；角色外行為Employee Voice Behavior t:Reviey and Direction for Future ResearchYanni ZHU1,2, Yueyuan CHENG1, Yingni LIU1,2( 1.School of Business, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, China ) ( 2. Faculty of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, China )AAstractt: As used to improve the effectiveness and performance, voice behavior is one of the most important research fields of strategic human resource management system in the new century within an organization. This paper first concludes the definition of voice behavior on the base of the content analysis of previous literature, and summaries the types of voice behavior. Then this paper forms the determinants and consequences of voice behavior from different perspectives. Finally, this paper provides some directions for future research.eyyordst: Voice behavior; Organizational citizenship behavior; Extra-role behavior收稿日期：2015-05-28；修訂日期：2015-06-22。*通訊作者：朱燕妮，女，澳門科技大學商學院博士生，澳門科技大學酒店與旅遊管理學院講師，主要研究方向為人力資源管理方向。Email: ynzhu@must.edu.mo, 電話：00853-889721510 引言隨著經濟的發展，愈演愈烈的行業內競爭已經開始讓更多的企業逐步意識到來自企業內部員工的建設性的、有益於企業的意見或建議的重要性。這一轉變的一個最直接的體現便是企業內部管理中越來越重視員工的建言行為（voice behavior）。與此同時，建言行為也因為有助於完善組織管理與決策、確保組織發展過程中的問題得到預警識別以及處理回饋，而受到學術界的重視，成為組織行為學研究的一個新的重要方向。本文首先通過對建言行為及相關文獻的系統梳理，剖析了建言行為的內涵和維度劃分；其次，結合建言行為研究及其相關理論，深入探析了組織內部建言行為的影響因素及其結果變量。最後，本文對未來研究方向進行了展望。1 建言行為概念內涵建言行為最早是由 Hirschman 在 1970 年提出。在建言行為研究的早期學者將建言行為看成
114第二，建言行為的影響因素和結果變量的完善和開發。目前，研究者對員工建言行為的前因變量的研究可以大致分為個體、領導和組織三個層次。已有研究圍繞這三個方面對員工建言行為的前因進行了理論分析和實證檢驗，研究結果較為豐富。然而綜觀這些影響因素的研究，依然有如下幾點仍需完善。首先，在組織層面的影響因素研究中，組織情境因素是一個非常重要的方面，然而這一領域目前還涉及較少。例如，組織建言氛圍對員工建言行為是如何產生影響的，這是非常值得關注和研究的論題（Morrison 等，2011b[29]）。其次，在領導層面，已有較多研究涉及領導風格、領導 -成員關係對建言行為的影響。然而未來的研究可以嘗試從領導主管的對建言行為的心理認知過程、心理調節過程來開展研究。在個體層面，已有研究主要從員工人格特質和心理視角進行了探討。未來可以嘗試運用調節理論來研究建言過程中員工的心理認知過程和心理調節過程。除此以外，還可以考慮兩種不同因素之間的交互影響。例如在什麼樣的情境因素下某種領導風格對建言行為的影響更為有效；領導 - 成員之間的交換關係是否會改變某種領導風格對建言行為的影響等。建言行為的影響結果研究。已有研究發現，經常採取建言行為的員工會給組織帶來高水準的組織績效和組織創造力，更多的創新行為，以及更少的反生產行為和離職意願。當然，建言行為其內在具有風險的屬性常常也意味著會帶來不好的結果，例如，有可能引起內部衝突，給員工的績效評價帶來不利影響等。可以預期，建言行為因其自身的特殊屬性，其在個體、群體及組織層的層面產生的結果應具有兩面性。因此未來的研究有必要對建言行為可能造成的積極、消極影響及其調節因素做更細緻的研究，以進一步充實建言行為理論。第三，對建言行為的跨層次研究。通過對現有文獻的系統性的梳理發現，目前針對建言行為的研究多集中在個體層面，以研究個體的建言行為為主，而鮮少關注組織層面的建言氛圍，因此這一部分的研究還處於起步階段。未來的研究可以嘗試跨層次來開展對建言行為的研究。首先針對組織層面的建言氛圍展開研究。如組織建言氛圍形成機制、影響因素（領導風格、組織情境因素、領導行為等）、結果變量（組織建言行為、組織績效、組織衝突等）等，都是十分值得研究的。其次，跨層次的建言行為研究。例如，組織建言氛圍除了對組織層面的結果變量會造成影響，同樣也會對個人層面的結果變數帶來影響，如影響員工個人的建言行為、工作績效，工作滿意度、角色外行為等。此外，還可以嘗試研究建言氛圍與個人因素或其他因素對個人層面的結果變數帶來的交互影響。第四，未來的研究可以考慮將時間因素引入到研究中。Lemoine 等（2015）[47] 研究發現，組織公民行為的可重複性受到很多因素的影響，例如情境因素（上一次實施組織公民行為得到的回饋等）和個人因素（個體的心情、情緒，以及實施組織公民行為的需求動機是否被滿足）。這些因素將會影響員工在組織內部重複實施角色外行為（如幫助行為、建言行為）。因此，在未來針對建言行為的研究可以充分考慮到促使（或抑制）建言行為重複性發生的情境因素和個人因素，並考慮其交互作用對建言行為的重複發生所產生的影響。最後，對不同文化背景下建言行為的共性和特性進行分析，尤其是對中國文化背景下的建言行為的研究，非常有價值。以中國文化為例，中國傳統文化向來重視“和”，組織內部權利距離大，工作自主性往往較低，這一切都不利於建言行為的實施。因此，未來針對不同文化背景下建言行為的實施展開研究非常有意義。參 考 文 獻[1] Avery, D. R., Quin˜ones, M. A.. Disentangling the effects of voice: the incremental roles of opportunity, behavior, and instrumentality in predicting procedural fairness. Journal of Applied Psychology, 2002,
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117第 9 卷 第 1 期 澳 門 科 技 大 學 學 報 Vol.9 No.12015 年 6 月 30 日 Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology June 30, 2015 Received 31 Mar. 2015; Revised 25 May 2015Corresponding author: 蔡占川，男，博士，副教授，主要研究方向:計算機圖形圖像處理及月球數據處理與分析。Tel: 853+88972329, E-mail: zccai@must.edu.moCaliAration of Location Coordinates in Chang'E-2 CCD DataZhi LI1, Mengjie YE2, Zhanchuan CAI1,2* ,Zesheng TANG1,2( 1. Faculty of Information Technology, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, China ) ( 2. Space Science Institute, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, China )AAstractt: The CCD stereo camera of Chang'E-2 satellite produces the high spatial resolution images. However, the positioning precision is low. The coordinates of corresponding points in the adjacent orbits of 2C level CCD images exist considerable difference. Combining with the image registration technique and the characteristic of Chang'E-2 CCD images, a method of calibration the longitude and latitude coordinates is proposed in this paper. Firstly, feature points of reference image is extracted by Harris detector. Secondly, the overlapped region between reference image and target image is obtained by the normalized cross-correlation method. Next, in the overlapped region, the corresponding point pairs are established by area-based registration. Lastly, the coordinates of target image have been calibrated by means of the transformation matrix (it is computed by the corresponding pairs' coordinates). The proposed method can decrease the relative positioning error, improve location accuracy and solve the contradiction (CCD image of high spatial resolution and the location coordinates of low positioning accuracy) to prepare the mosaic of lunar images. eyyordst: Chang'E-2; CCD images; Coordinates calibration; Image registration嫦娥二號CCD數據定位座標的校正李 智1，葉夢杰2，蔡占川1,2*，唐澤聖1,2（1. 澳門科技大學資訊科技學院，2. 澳門科技大學太空科學研究所）摘要： 嫦娥二號探月衛星CCD立體相機，在100km的環月軌道上獲取了月表空間分辨率優於10m/pixel的高分辨率CCD影像，但是其影像定位精度低，相對定位誤差大。本文利用圖像配准的思想並結合嫦娥二號CCD數據的特點，提出了一種對嫦娥二號CCD 2C級數據的相對定位校正方法，減小其相對定位誤差，解決高分辨率CCD影像與低影像定位精度的矛盾，為之後月球影像的鑲嵌做準備。首先，使用Harris角點檢測算子提取參考圖像的特徵點；其次，使用歸一化互相關的方法找到參考影像和待配准影像的重疊區域；接著，在重疊區域中，進行基於模板的特徵點對匹配；最後利用特徵同名點對對應的經緯度座標數據計算得到的變換矩陣，校正待配准圖像的經緯度座標。關鍵詞： 嫦娥二號；CCD 2C級數據；相對座標的校正；圖像配准
1180 Introduction On October 24, 2007, the first Chinese lunar orbiter Chang'E-1 satellite was launched successfully. In the orbit of 200km, its three-line array CCD stereo camera can get three planar images in the same time from three different view angles (forward, nadir and backward). The spatial resolution of CCD images is 120m per-pixel[9]. Since the success of Chang'E-1, Chang'E-2 has developed as a technical test probe for the second stage of China's Lunar Exploration Program[6]. Chang'E-2 CCD stereo camera was working from October 24, 2010 to May 20, 2011. Meanwhile, it produced 608 tracks of 10m per-pixel high resolution images in the orbit of 100km. The original data was preprocessed and provided by the Ground Segment for Data, Science and Application (GSDSA)[3~4]. Based on optical remote sensing images as the major data source at present, image matching, control points and high accuracy image positioning are considered as the foundation of lunar topographic mapping. However, for the complicated influence factors in image orientation errors, all of the errors cannot be considered at the same time in the rigorous model. The accuracy of orbit and attitude surveying on the Moon is much lower than that on the Earth. Hence, there must be considerable errors in lunar image location coordinates[11]. For dealing with them, the calibration of coordinates is an important part by using an effective method. For example, the high-precision control points on lunar surface images is crucial for the high-precision mapping of the lunar surface[8]. The relative coordinates of the adjacent tracks of Chang'E-2 CCD images have large errors to some extent. After analyzing the corresponding points' location of CCD images, the average relative coordinate error is 187.69m, the maximum error is 2667.59m and the minimum error is 0.411m, in which 94% of location errors are less than 400m and 6% location errors are more than 400m[4]. This sect ion gives some informat ion of Chang'E-2, the related work about the lunar imagery and the quality analysis of positioning data. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Firstly, we introduce the CCD image data. Then, the calibration algorithm is proposed. Finally, the experiment results and discussions are shown. 1 CCD Image Data of Chang'E-21.1 CCD Stereo CameraThe CCD (Charge Couple Device) stereo camera of Chang'E-2 satellite utilizes the TDI (Time Delay and Integration) principle to capture digital image in push-broom mode, which can simultaneously produces two kinds of high resolution (better than 10m per-pixel and better than 1.5m per-pixel) images with two viewing directions (forward and backward, see Fig. 1). Table 1 shows the technical index of CCD camera[10].Since in the region of higher latitude brings more overlapping, the payload (CCD stereo camera) of the satellite has been shut down in latitude out of [-60°, 60°] in the even orbits and always work in the latitude of [-90°, 90°] in the odd orbits [7]. TaAle 1 Technical index of CCD cameraOrbiter Chang'E-2 lunar satelliteCCD stereo camera Double array TDI-CCDView angle Forward view +8° and backward view -17.2°Orbital altitude 100km 15kmSpatial resolution <10m/pixel <1.5m/pixelImaging width ≥43km ≥6kmFig.1 Imaging principle of the CCD stereo camera.
119Zhi LI, et al Calibration of Location Coordinates in Chang'E-2 CCD Data1.2 CCD Data FormationAfter the processing procedure of radiometric calibration, geometric correction, and photometric correction etc., 2C level CCD data are produced and documented as standard PDS (Planetary Data System) format. PDS format was created by the NASA planetary missions and has become the basic standard of planetary exploration data around the world.The Chang'E-2 2C level CCD data includes CCD images and its related data (location data, instrument angle data of satellite etc.). Each row of image contains 6144 pixels, but its location data contains only 9 coordinate points (one coordinate point for each 768 pixels in the interval from 1st to 6144th). CCD pixels in every line array of the Chang'E-2 stereo camera has a strict mathematical relationships. For saving computing source, 9 control points of each row of CCD image are calculated and provided accurately after preprocessing (see Fig. 2). And each column of image is similar, but the amount of pixels is not fixed by depending on the each images.Fig.2 Illustration of the CCD data.According to the format of CCD data, in order to get the longitude and latitude coordinates of every CCD image pixels correspondingly, every coordinate of pixel can be calculated through linear interpolation method as formula (1). (1)a 1 768 1536 2304 3072 3840 4608 5376 …b 768 1536 2304 3072 3840 4608 5376 6144 …where xi and yi denote the longitude and latitude of pixel i in each row/column of CCD images, xa, xb, ya, yb denote the coordinate of the referenced pixels (ath and bth) respectively. ∆s denotes the number of interpolating pixels. Due to there is a coordinate point for each 768 pixels in the interval of every row/column of the Chang'E-2 CCD image. ∆s will be set to 768. 2 CaliAration Algorithm of Longitude and Latitude CoordinatesFrom table 1, we know that the resolution of the CCD stereo camera is rather high. But, the relative localization error of adjacent CCD data is large. Therefore the difference of location coordinates of correspondent points in adjacent CCD image may achieve several decades of pixels in the image. It will have a great impact on the image mosaic. There are four basic steps for image registration procedure: feature detection, feature matching, transform model estimation, and image transformation and resampling[1]. In this paper, a strategy combined of image registration method and Chang'E-2 CCD image's characteristic has been used to calibrate the relative longitude and latitude coordinates of image pixels. This algorithm can be implemented through four major stages: (1) feature point detection; (2) feature point matching; (3) the transformation matrix solving; (4) calibration of longitude and latitude coordinates of target image. 2.1 Feature Point DetectionEvery pixel in the image has a coordinate (one-to-one correspondent). Thus, this stage detects the feature points in the overlapped CCD image by Harris detector. Because the latitude range of odd orbit images is larger than the even orbit images'. The odd orbit images are set as reference images and even orbit images are set as target images.Actually, some feature point detection method (like as SIFT) based on scale invariance feature with a great effect can be apply to some regions of interest. It is replaceable in this operation. However, it will
120suffer from computation inefficiency to deal with the huge CCD data of Chang'E-2. It is a trade-off choose. Hence, feature points of reference image (after the above preprocessing) are extracted by Harris detector. The Harris detector is very steady. It has good speed, accuracy and robustness[2]. Then Harris detector is defined by (2) where R denotes the corner response and is used to measure whether it is the corner point or not. If R is the maximum value in a region (the size of the region is 3×3 in this paper) and greater than the threshold, the point is regarded as the corner point. det(M) denotes determinant of a matrix M. tr(M) denotes the trace of a matrix M. k value usually is 0.04~0.06( k=0.04 in this paper). Both α, β are eigenvalues of M. (3)where M is the 2×2 symmetric matrix and is made of , A, B and C. W denotes a smooth circular Gaussian window. (4) where σ is the standard deviation and controls the width of Gaussian window. The window belongs to the normal distribution. u will be set at 0. In this paper, the size of the Gaussian window is 5×5 and σ=2. (5) where the first gradients are approximated by formula (5). I denotes the image. 2.2 Feature Points MatchingFor saving computational cost, an approach of NCC (normalized cross correlation) is used for roughly matching firstly to get the overlapped region between reference image and target image. Then, this approach is used to area-based registration of feature points again. The NCC method is often in use, deal with the images without attempting to detect salient object (such as lunar surface) and easy hardware implementation[1]. The normalized cross correlation can be mathematically represented[5] by (6) where t denotes the K by L template of the reference image R (an M '×N ' array) and f denotes the K by L subimage of the target image S (an M ×N array). (x -u , y -v ) is the value of pixel in template t and is the value of pixel in subimage f by normalization. is the mean of the template and is the mean of f (x, y) in the region under the template. A small template of points in the reference image is statistically compared with windows of the same size in the target image. This process is illustrated in the Fig. 3. Fig.3 Area-Aased registration.The best match occurs when the value C (u, v) is maximum. The correlation coefficient measures similarity between two windows on an absolute scale ranging from [-1, 1]. Each template t in the reference
121Zhi LI, et al Calibration of Location Coordinates in Chang'E-2 CCD Dataimage is compared to every subimage f in the target image S. After finding the subimage f which best matches t, the center (u, v) and (x, y) are taken as the control points. In this paper, the size of template of the reference image is 13×13 and the size of subimage of the target image is 71×71. The threshold of similarity is 0.75.Lunar images are consisting of very similar, neighboring texture patterns. Hence, at last, RANSAC (Random Sample Consensus) algorithm is used to remove the false correspondent pairs (see Fig. 4). In this paper, the number of random trials for finding the outliers is 2500 times iteration. The Sampson distance type to determine whether a pair of points is an inlier or outlier and its distance threshold for finding outliers is 1.Fig.4 Feature point matching.2.3 Transformation MatrixThe adjacent tracks of CCD images still exists the geometric deformation. After observation, we assume that the transformation is the two-dimensional affine transformation. It consists of the scaling, translation and rotation. Utilizing longitude and latitude coordinates of correspondent feature point pairs, the transformation matrix is computed by means of the least square fit (see Fig. 5).Fig.5 The transformation matrix solving.2.4 CaliAration of Longitude and Latitude Coordinates in Target ImageAt last, the coordinates of target image are calibrated after multiplication by the two-dimensional affine (rotation θ , scaling s , translation tx,ty) transformation matrix as follows (see Fig. 6). (7)Fig.6 CaliArated longitude and latitude coordinates of target image.3 Experiment Results and Analysis3.1 ImplementationIn this paper, parts of the images in the adjacent tracks (1st~500th rows of 301th orbit and 302th orbit) are taken as the example. In the overlapped region, the 1~3000 columns of 301th and 3145~6144 columns of 302th of CCD forward images (better than 10m per-pixel) are tested in the experiment. Both of their sizes are 500×3000 pixels. Firstly, the coordinates of 301th and 302th tracks of CCD images after linear interpolation are shown in Fig. 7(a). The red coordinates belong to the 301th and the green coordinates belong to the 302th. The reconstructed image from the original coordinates is shown in Fig. 7(b), in which the same object of CCD images are obvious, but their positions are different. It is shown that the uncalibrated adjacent CCD images can't be used for mosaic.Fig.7(a) CCD images' coordinates.
122Orbit number 301Orbit number 302Fig.7(A) The result of CCD images reconstruction from their original coordinates.Secondly, the overlapped region between reference image and target image is shown in Fig. 8(a). The Fig. 8(b) shows the correspondent point pairs (6961 pairs in total) by green points. The error of registration limitation is 2 pixels. After calibration, the correspondent points' coordinates in target image are shown by blue. The correspondent points' coordinates in reference image are shown by red (see Fig. 8(c)). In Fig. 8(d), red, green and blue areas stand for reference image's coordinates, target image's original coordinates and coordinates after calibration of target image respectively. Overlapped regionOverlapped region301302 Overlapped regionOverlapped region301302Fig.8(a) The overlapped region.301302301302Fig.8 (A) The correspondent point pairs.Fig.8 (c) The correspondent point pairs of the target image coordinates and the reference image coordinates after caliArationt: (top) yhole graph and (Aottom) graph of zooming in.Fig.8(d) The target image coordinates after caliAration.Fig.9 The reconstructed image Ay the caliArated coordinates.
123Zhi LI, et al Calibration of Location Coordinates in Chang'E-2 CCD DataIn order to get more feature points and more exact transformation matrixes, the reference image and target image are divided into 10 sections (500×300 pixels). Hence, there are 10 transformation matrixes respectively, because the results is not good enough by only one transformation matrix. The reconstructed image according to the calibrated coordinates (ten transformation matrixes) is shown in Fig. 9.Similarly, using these adjacent tracks (1st~3000th rows of 301th orbit and 302th orbit), the reconstructed images according to the original coordinates and the calibrated coordinates are shown in Fig. 10(top) and in Fig. 10(bottom) respectively. In addition, the reconstructed image according to the calibrated coordinates for parts of the image of three adjacent orbits (1st~500th rows of 301th orbit, 302th orbit and 303th orbit) is shown in Fig. 11. Fig.10 Comparison of the reconstructed image (1st~3000th roys)t: (top) according the original coordinates and (Aottom) Ay the caliArated coordinates.Fig.11 The reconstructed image of three adjacent orAits (1st~500th roys) Ay the caliArated coordinates.3.2 AnalysisThe proposed method is completely feasible for the flat region of the Moon (like as Lunar basin) through the experiment. After calibration of the longitude and latitude coordinates, they still have some errors. In this paper, the Euclid distance between the corresponding points are calibrated as the errors evaluation. The results are shown in Fig. 12, there are 44 %, 34 %, 15 % and 5% corresponding pairs in 0~1, 1~2, 2~3 and 3~4 pixels difference respectively. Fig.12 Pie chart for corresponding pairs error statistics (1st~3000th roys of 301th orAit and 302th orAit).The value of the errors, the precision, quantity and uniformity of the corresponding points are closely related. Thus, we must make the amount of corresponding points sufficiently large and the distribution of them need to be uniform. It puts forward higher request to the accuracy of detector. In addition, a lot of the affine transformations also produce the slight errors and differences. H o w e v e r , t h e C C D i m a g e s h a v e t h e characteristics of self-similarity and its texture of the CCD images of the large diameter impact craters is less. As a result, the Harris detector will extract seldom corner points in the image with less texture. Otherwise, it extracts more corner points in the image of rich texture and lead to appear the results of corner points clustering. It's crucial to choose a threshold in this method. If the threshold is big, the vast of corner points will lost. If the threshold is small, the false corner points will be brought in. Hence, the CCD image of the high land region of the Moon will make
124this problem more obviously. Above all, they will have influence on the work of coordinate calibration. 4 Conclusion and DiscussionIn this paper, a strategy for calibration of the longitude and latitude coordinates in the stereo-pairs of Chang'E-2 lunar mission is proposed. It can reduce the relative positioning error of the CCD 2C level image data. It has been solved the contradiction of the CCD image of high spatial resolution and location coordinates of low positioning accuracy and can be applied for this type of sense CCD data.Firstly, the Harris detector is used to extract the feature points in the reference image. Secondly, reference images and target images are matched by the normalized cross-correlation method and their overlapped region is obtained roughly. Next, in the overlapped region, area-based registration of feature points by the same method is implemented and the corresponding points after eliminating the false ones are generated by RANSAC method. Then, the longitude and latitude coordinates of the correspondent point pairs are computed by the transformation matrix and the longitude and latitude coordinates of target image have been calibrated. At last, the mosaic of calibrated images is implemented. It's important to solve the above problems and further reduce the calibration error of the longitude and latitude coordinates. Making this method applied on all CCD image data of Chang'E-2 mission is also our future work.AcknoyledgementsThis work is supported by the National Basic Research Program of China ( No.2011CB302400 ), the Science and Technology Development Fund of Macau under grant No. 110/2014/A3and No. 048/2012/A2 and No. 084/2012/A3 and 091/2013/A3, the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 61170320 and No. 61272364, the Open Project Program of the State Key Lab of CAD&CG ( Grant No.A1513 ), Zhejiang University.References [1] Barbara Zitova, Jan Flusser. Image Registration Methods: a Survey. Image and Vision Computing, 2003, (21): 977-1000.[2] Harris C, Stephens M. A Combined Corner and Edge Detector. Proceedings of the Fourth Alvey Conference, Manchester: University of Sheffield Printing Unit, 1988: 147-151. [3] Li Chunlai, Liu Jianjun, Ren Xin, OuYang Ziyuan, et al. The Global Image of the Moon Obtained by the Chang'E-1: Data Processing and Lunar Cartography (in Chinese). Science China: Earth Sciences, 2010-8, 53(8): 1091-1102.[4] Liu Jianjun, Ren Xin, Tan Xu, Li Chunlai. Lunar Image Data Preprocessing and Quality Evaluation of CCD Stereo Camera on Chang'E-2 (in Chinese). Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2013-2, 38(2): 186-190. [5] LMG Fonseca, BS Manjunath. Registration Techniques for Multisensor Remotely Sensed Imagery. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, 1996-9, 62(9): 1049-1056. [6] Ouyang Ziyuan. Science Results of Chang'e-1 Lunar Orbiter and Mission Goals of Chang'e-2 (in Chinese). Spacecraft Engineering, 2010-9, 19(5): 1-6. [7] Xia Jinchao, Ren Xin, Liu Jianjun et al. Image Coverage Analysis of Chang'E-2. 4th International Congress on Image and Signal Processing, Shanghai, 2011-10-15: 2066-2071. [8] Xia Jinchao, Ren Xin, Liu Jianjun et al. Positioning of Lunar High-Precision Control Points on Chang'E-1/2 Original Images (in Chinese). Journal of Jilin University (Earth Science Edition), 2012-11, 42(Sup. 2): 460-468. [9] Zhao Baochang, Yang Jianfeng, Wen Desheng, Gao Wei, Ruan Ping, He Yinghong. Design and On-orbit Measurement of Chang'E-1 Satellite CCD Stereo Camera (in Chinese). Spacecraft Engineering, 2009-1, 18(1): 30-36. [10] Zhao Baochang, Yang Jianfeng, Wen Desheng, Gao Wei, Chang Lingying, Xue Bin. Chang'E-2 Lunar Orbiter CCD Stereo Camera Design and Validation (in Chinese). Spacecraft Engineering, 2011-1, 20(1): 14-21. [11] Zhang Jixian, Deng Kazhong, Cheng Chunquan, Yan Qin, Ning Xiaogang, Guo Jian. Study on high-accuracy orientation with lunar remote sensing imagery. Journal of Remote Sensing, 2010, 14(3): 423-436.
彩 插 1Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Adjustment of RMBt: A Threshold Cointegration AnalysisFig.1 Imaging principle of the CCD stereo camera. Fig.7(a) CCD images' coordinates.CaliAration of Location Coordinates in Chang'E-2 CCD Data我國財產保險公司償付能力預警模型研究65 75 85 95 105 115 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 REER BEER HPBEERFigure 1. REER, BEER, and HPBEER of RMBt: 1994Q1~2009Q4-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 CMRFMRTMR Figure 2. Different measures of RMB misalignment (in %)圖3 兩分類隨機森林誤差率變化 圖5 兩分類決策樹與隨機森林ROC曲線
彩 插 2Overlapped regionOverlapped region301302 Overlapped regionOverlapped region301302Fig.8(a) The overlapped region.301302301302Fig.8 (A) The correspondent point pairs.Fig.8 (c) The correspondent point pairs of the target image coordinates and the reference image coordinates after caliArationt: (top) yhole graph and (Aottom) graph of zooming in.Fig.8(d) The target image coordinates after caliAration.Fig.10 Comparison of the reconstructed image (1st~3000th roys)t: (top) according the original coordinates and (Aottom) Ay the caliArated coordinates.Fig.12 Pie chart for corresponding pairs error statistics (1st~3000th roys of 301th orAit and 302th orAit).
編輯委員會Editorial Board編委會主席：劉良Chairman of Editorial Board: Liu Liang主編 ：張曙光、許敖敖Chief Editors: Zhang Shu Guang, Xu Ao Ao編委：劉良、張曙光、許敖敖、祈務晨、余秋雨、張志慶、姜志宏、方泉、林偉基、戴龍基、黎曉平、蔡亞從、唐澤聖、陳乃九、龐川、孫立雲、孫建榮Editorial Board Members:Liu Liang, Zhang Shu Guang, Xu Ao Ao,Keith Robert Barclay Morrison, Yu Qiu Yu, Zhang Zhi Qing, Jiang Zhi Hong, Fang Quan, Lam Wai Kei, Dai Long Ji, Li Xiao Ping, Tsoi Ah Chung, Tang Ze Sheng, Chan Lai Kow, Pang Chuan, Sun Li Yun, Sun Jian Rong澳門科技大學學報Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology主辦單位: 澳門科技大學Organizer: Macau University of Science and Technology編委會主席: 劉良Chairman of Editorial Board: Liu Liang主編: 張曙光、許敖敖Chief Editors: Zhang Shu Guang, Xu Ao Ao編輯: 《澳門科技大學學報》編輯部Editor: The Editorial Department, Journal of Macau University of Science and Technology ● 電話： +853-8897-2173 Tel: +853-8897-2173 ● 傳真：+853-2888-0022 Fax: +853-2888-0022 ● 電郵：publication@must.edu.mo E-mail: publication@must.edu.mo ● 地址： 澳門科技大學 澳門氹仔偉龍馬路 Address: Macau University of Science and Technology, Avenida Wai Long, Taipa, Macau出版及總發行：澳門科技大學Publisher & Distribution: Macau University of Science and Technology ● 電話：+853-8897-2166 Tel: +853-8897-2166 ● 電郵：cbpsadmin@must.edu.mo E-mail: cbpsadmin@must.edu.mo ● 地址： 澳門科技大學 澳門氹仔偉龍馬路 Address: Macau University of Science and Technology, Avenida Wai Long, Taipa, Macau 封面及版式設計：高鴻 王港Graphic & Layout Designers: Gao Hong, Wang Gang印刷： 700本Print Run: 700出版日期：2015年6月Issued Date: June 2015國際標準期刊號：ISSN: 1994-4926規格： 21cm×29.7cmSize: 21cm width by 29.7cm height版權所有，翻印必究All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, or otherwise, without the prior consent of the publisher.
半年刊 2007年6月創刊第九卷 第一期 2015年6月出版JOURNAL OF MACAU UNIVERSITYOF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGYSemiannual, Started in June 2007Vol.9 No.1 June 2015定價: 20元澳門幣(人民幣/港幣)ISSN 1994-4926半年刊Semiannual Vol.9二 一五年 第九卷 第一期JOURNAL OF MACAU UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGYVol.9 No.1 June 2015
