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46 w;1~ w;1m 2007 4: 6 ~ 30 13 ~ r, # tt * ~ ~i .m Journal of Moc-au Un,-=ity of Sc,enc:e and T~choology Vol. 1 No. I June 30. 2007 Fuzzy Regression: Methods and Evaluations Lai Kow CHA I Ming Lu WU2 ( 1. Institute for Sustainable Development. Macau University of Science and Technology, Avenida Wai Long, Taipa , Macau , China) (2. Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong. Kowloon Tong . H ong Kong. China) Abstract : F uzzy regression has experienced fast development in the past two decade as an alternative to model vague phenomena and subjective data for which traditional statis t ica1 regression may be ineffective. To facilitate practitioners ' ea y understandings and appropriate selections for use, this paper prm,;des a brief review and comprehensive evaluation of various fuzzy regression methods appeared in the literature . including Tanaka and his colleagues' original fuzzy possibilisitc r egression ( FPR) models. fuzzy necessity and conjunction regression methods and FPR models with quadratic and exponential membership functions . Celmins's and Diamond's fuzzy least squares methods . Savic and Pedryzc' s two-stage fuzzy regres ion approach. Sakawa and Yano's as well as Ozelkan and Duckstein's multi-objective fuzzy regression models, and Peters ' fuzzy linear programming based FPR method. The mathematical formulation of each major fuzzy regression method is fir t precisely presented . from which computational procedures can easily be established for practitioners to estimate and analyze the corresponding fuzzy regression model. The strengths and weaknesses of the various fuzzy regression methods are then systematically assessed based on the relevant literature . and the comparatively simple and reliable two-stage fuzzy regression method is tentatively recommended for practitioners to use _in fuzzy modeling. Ten influential and representative fuzzy regression publications are finally suggested for the easy and quick references of interested readers . especially for those who are not yet ver y fami liar with fuzzy regression. Key words: fuzzy distance: fuzzy regression; least squares method: linear programming; multi-objective programming: nonlinear programming: possibilistic constraints; triangular fuzzy numbers Manuscript received May 18. 2007 : re,-ised June 15 . 2007. The first author . Lai Kow Chan . is Professor and Director in the l nstitute for Sustainable Development . Macau University of Science and Technology. E-mail : lkchan@must.edu. mo, Tel : 853-8972069 The Second author . Ming Lu Wu, is Research FeUow. Depamnent of Management Sciences. City University of Hong Kong. Lai Kow CH,'\.'\!. et al. Fuzzy Regression, Methods and Evaluations 47 ~JJ :ft} , *aJl iF < 1. i!l!r,fl.tt:k~oJt.l'¥A~ ~1i1fJ{r.Jr. tmr~ : 2. w?l~W:k*'m'~f4~* , wni: > lro~: ~~ir-J ~it@J !.t .(f.;,t;J.-~*i&J.t~Jli,fbL~;r-~t~tt~!Jf vf:iit-ft~ 1l~~. 1tt1 ~-¾ 20 J ~ r-,-e-J&..~Jt.~ilif.J~~ @1 $.ir.l!1lJLt£it:fitk ~ r e/J - 1m ,r~V-J :f-f\;.~ * o $,-it.~-t~ 1.-tt;t-* 1f".:fi• ro ~ ~ ~ :k. tL~ ~ it ¼1'fi ~~a~~.J~~:t. mJ11~: ;ti;t#JJEE~;-~@J!f ; Jil.,J, ..:::.**; ~-Ii.At~;$ m ~~t1 ; :4p~•1.i~t1l ; Pf~U.i$.'JAt.. ; -=-in 1TJ••· Fuzzy Regression vs Statistical Regression 1. 1 Statistical regression Regression analysis is a popular method to model the dependence of an output or consequence variable on some input or cause variables using sample dara. To analyze and predict an output variable , usually denoted as y . the first important step is to identify those variable that have impacts on y. Very often tnere are too many variables or factors affecting y with different degrees of strengths . so attention should be restricted to a few key variables t hat have considerable impacts on y for simplicity and clarity. Suppose m such major mput variables have been determined . denoted as .lt, .... .rm. Then the ·econd important step is to examine and determine the relationship between y and .r1 • .. • • x ... Since .T • • • • • .r .. are only the key factors affecting y . such relationship can usually be characterized by a major part through a function g(.r1 .... . .r .. ) reflecting the effects of .r, , .... x •. on y and an error term c: reflecting the effect of all the other factor s : Y = g(.ri, ... , .r.,) T E (l) uppose that II sets of sample data on y and .r1 • • ••• x,,, have been collected , (y, . :r1, .. .. . .r,,.) , i= 1. 2. ···. 11 . then the sample representation of Eq. (1) is : y , = g(,rl, • .. . , ,r.,)+1:, Eq. (2) is a general regression or curve-fitting model where g(x1 • • • ·, x ,n) may be referred to as a regre sion function and the model-predicted value of _v, corresponding to ..r1, , • • • , .r .. , are calculated as : y , = g(.r1, ..... .r,,. ) (3) Regression model ( 2 ) may include two common cases. The first case is chat. based on theory and experience . the functional form of g(.r1 . .... :r., ) is assumed to be known but with some unknown parameters. For example. g ( .r1 , ... . x ,.. ) may be linear (i. e .. c + ~ c,xi) • 1~ ..
48 quadratic ( i. e . . cA + ~ c ;:r,-+- I; ~ c ,.r ,:r>) . ls.,J~ l~ot:~11, exponential ( e. g. , c + c .. exp( ~ c ;I,)) . or J J -"' logistic (e. g .. c r(l +c, exp( ~ c ,.r1))), \.vith c . c, and c;,- being unknown parameters. This is the most common case where the objective is lO estimate the unknown parameters. usually usmg the traditional lea t squares method by minimizing the sum of the !'quared error : min ~E~= ~ =y . -g(.r1, · · · · . x .. , )]! (4) h,..":"&iJ 1~4"' 'iVhen g ( .r1 • • •• • x .. ) 1s linear ( i. e. , c, -1... ~ c 1.r i) , Eq. ( 4 ) 1s a simple quadratic programming which can without great clifficulry be solvelewton iterative method or the more effective ~ewton-Raphson nonlinear optimization approach. For more about linear and nonlinear regres.-ion and the related e timation procedures, interested readers may consult references =1-2]. Tbe second common case for regression model (2) is when the functional form of g(.r1 • ••• • .r~) is unknown. and the objective is then to estimate thi · unknm,vn function based on sample data using nonparametric methods such a the kernel method. penalized least square method, series method. and spline method. For more about nonparametric regres ion merhods, interested readers may consult reference [ 3-4]. 1. 2 Fuzzy regression as compared to statistical regression Although widely used m practice, the aforementioned statistical regression analysis, 2007. lC 1 > notably the popular lea·t squares method. imposes certain as umptions or con traint on data and model structures such as larger sample size and independence and homogeneity of error terms. Such assumpnon may not hold for specific studies, which can seriously affect the performance of the regression analysis and the validity of the results. In such cases less demanding alternative methods should be considered for use , of which fuzzy regression is a noticeable one. Another non-trivial point i- that all variables and parameter· in traditional statistical regre ion analysis are cri p taking numerical values and all functions or relations are aho cri p. However , since regression modeling and data collection proces es inevitably involve human subjective factor . it seems non-redundant to introduce the concept of fuzziness=iJ . Fuzzy regression was initiated in line with these consideration to model vague and subjective or imprecise phenomena which are sometimes more common than deterministic and precise ones in real world. Historically. references [ 6- 7] first extended the tatistical regression concepts to fuzzy situations and formulated the fuzzy possibilistic regression models. While statistical regression generally attribute the de\·iations between observed and predicted output value to observation or specification error·. references [6-7= innovatively assumed these deviations to be dependent on the fuzziness of the . ystem structure or parameters. Since then . fuzzy regre sion has witnessed fast development with various methods and applications appeared in a large number of academic publications. According to many studies:••11: . fuzzy regression may be more appropriate than tatistical regression when, (Dhuman judgmenls about the system structures or input-output relation are involved; ®ambiguous processes are to be explained or rbeir outputs are to be predicted; Lai Kow CHA T. et al. Fuzzy Regression, Methods and Evalua1ions 49 Q)available data . crisp or non-crisp . are too few lO use statistical regression analysis. Especially . through a simulation study :i· showed that: l)Least squares regression outperforms nonparametric regres ion and fuzzy regress1on m prediction. If data points a re many enough to establish a valid statistical relation, or if the model is well specified. then least squares regression also outperform the other two methods in description. 2)Fuzzy regression is better at description or explanation than prediction in a relative sense. 3)Fuzzy regression outperform lea ·t squares regression and nonparametric regression m description when (Dthe number of data points is small : ® the underlying model 1s not well specified; (J)rhe error terms exhibit little variations. 4)Fuzzy regression is more robust to the poor specification of the model than the other two methods, although it is more sensitive to data variation or the number of data points. In another simulation study on fuzzy regression and least squares regression, reference [ 12] demonstrated similar results. Hence. it is believed that fuzzy regression does have its merit and can be adopted in certain circumstances when traditional statistical regression does nor work well. l. 3 About this paper This paper aims to provide an overview and evaluation of various fuzzy regression methods for practitioners' easy understanding and appropriate selection. It is noticed that there are many fuzzy regression methods appeared in a large number of publtcations and that new fuzzy regression methods have still been emerging in a growing body of li terature. For example . recent issues of Computational tatistics and Data Analysis ( Vol. , 1. Issue 1. ov. 2006) and Fuzzy Sets and Systems ( VoJ. 157, Issues 19 and 23 . Oct and Dec. 2006) published a number of fuzzy regression related papers and. to list a few. recent publications on fuzzy regre ·sion methods and apolic::1tions in variou~ iicademic journal"' include references = 16-33 ]. Hence our overview and evaluation will be beneficial lO suit the different need: . especially referencing needs, of interested readers for easily under ·tanding and appropriately selecting and applying fuzzy regression methods ro model and analyze vague or subjective phenomena in practice. The paper unfold as follows. 1n section 2 we first outline some basics of fuzzy mathematics, especially fuzzy numbers and their operations and fuzzy distances . which are essential for describing and understanding the various fuzzy regression methods. We then provide one by one a brief review of the variou · fuzzy regression methods appeared in the literature , including Tanaka and hi!'. colleagues' original fuzzy possibilisitc regression ( FPR) models . fuzzy necessity and conjunction regression methods and FPR model with quadratic and exponential membership function . Celmi ns' s and Diamond's fuzzy least quares methods, Savic and Pedryzc · s two-stage fuzzy regression approach . Sakawa and Yano' s as weJl as Ozelkan and Duckstein 's multi-objective fuzzy regression models . and Peters' fuzzy linear programming based FPR method. The mathematical formulation of each major fuzzy regression method is preci_ely presented . from which computational procedures can easily be established for practitioners to estimate and analyze the corresponding fuzzy regression model. Then in -ection 3 we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses 0£ the various fuzzy regression methods with the help of the relevant literature , in order to facilitate practitioners' selection of the appropriate one for use in fuzzy modeling. Based on the above
50 overview and evaluation, m section 4 we tentatively recommend practitioners to apply in fuzzy modeling the relatively simple and reliable two-stage fuzzy regression method. and finally we alsu suggest H::n mfluennal and representanve fuzzy regression publications for the easy and quick references of interested reader . especially for those who are not yet very familiar with fuzzy regression. 2 Overview of Fuzzy Regression Methods In some situations , vagueness . imprecision and especially human being's subjective involvements in conceptualizations. measurements and mocleling are substantial. This violates the assumptions of randomness. independence and cnspnes~ as usually required m statistical modeling, making traditional regression techniques such as the widely used least squares method less appropriate. Researchers thus Lum to alternative approaches, noticeably the fuzzy regre~sion methods. to try to more appropriately model vague . imprecise and subjective variables and data. In the following we will overview major fuzzy regression methods appeared in the literature, which will inevitably use a minimum amount of fuzzy mathematical terms and notations. especially fuzzy numbers and their operations and fuzzy distance. For those reader who are not familiar with fuzzy mathematics . the following brief ummary of some fuzzy concepts frequently used in fuzzy regression would be helpful: 1 )Fuzzy mathematics is based on the theory of fuzzy sets that represent situations, observations or judgments with no well-defined boundaries. A fuzzy set F in a traditional crisp set X 1s characterized by a membership function µ 'f: ( .r) which, assigning each element .r EX \Vlth a value in the closed interval [ O, lJ to represent the degree of x belonging to F. describes F 1 s degree of 2007 . 1 ( 1) vagueness , ambiguousness or J fuzziness". Fuzzy numbers are the most commonly used fuzzy sets defined on the real line. 2}A triangular fuzzy number (TIN) denoted as C = { l . c, r is a special fuzzy number representing a vague numerical concept C = ·• approximately c '' with lower limit l and upper limit r surrounding the cent er c, and lower spread w 1 = c - l and upper spread w, = r - c or the (average) spread w=(w, +w,) / 2=(r - l) / 2 representing the fuzziness of C. If w 1 =u.•,=w= ( r - /) 12, which occurs if and only if c= ( l + r) / 2, then we have a symmetrical TFN C, which can be more simply and intuitively written as E=:c, w]. 3)TF, s can be proportionally ·' compressed" using their h-cut ets . where h E (0 . l ]. 4)For TF:--ls , addition and subtraction are quite simple and analogous to those for traditional crisp numbers, still producing T F . s. Scalar multiplication depends on the sign of the scalar but also results in TFNs. H ence Linear combinations of TFNs are do ed operation TF:--rs. till resulting in 5) However, multiplication and division of TFNs depend much on their detail characteristics and only produce approximate TF. s. which complicates the relevant fuzzy studies including fuzzy regression analysis. 6}Fuzzy distance measures needed m some fuzzy regression models can be defined in many ways as appeared in the literature, but a s impler and better way is to define the squared distance between two TFNs . C1 = { l1 • c1 • r1 and C2 = {12 , c2 , r2 • as the sum of the squared distances between their respective centers and left and right limits: d1 2 . which is also a natural extension of the traditional Euclidean distance. For more about fuzzy mathematics, interested readers m~y refer to, among a number of popular Lai Kow CHA.\/. el al Fuzzy Regression: Methods and Evaluations 51 publications, reference [34] for fuzzy set theory . references [ 35-36] for fuzzy numbers and their operations , and reference [37] for fuzzy distance mea"urc". 2. 1 Fuzzy possibilistic regression methods Reference [ 6: proposed the first fuzzy regression model which . analogous to statistical regression model (3) . predicts for each observation ( i = 1, · ··, n ) the output y by a linear combination of the input s .r1 • • • · , x., usmg symmetrical TFNs Ci= [c1, u.,] (j=O , 1 . ... . m ) as regression coefficients : Y, = [J • . y,.J = t. +C1xi. + ··· +C,,..x .. -Co+ ~ C1x.,, =[co, 'U,\;], ~ [c,xfa , w 1 I X 1; I]= 1,0,;;.,,, [co+ ~ C,.X,;, Wu T ~ W 1 I :r1, 1] 1~,.;;,., !~,,, The fuzzy regression coefficients C, · s are determined by minimizing the system fuzziness defined as the sum of Cj 's spreads : Wt= 'U,'Q + L w1• in order to reduce C; s and hence the Q~ - -predicted Y. ' s vagueness by compressing Y, ' h-cut set a much as pos. ible to approach the ob erved y; from out ide, under the possibilistic constraints that each observed output y; 1s contained in the h-cut set of the corresponding predicted output Y, = [5, •. , Yiu·] ' - ( 1 - h) y.,_ ~ y;-_y,.~(1-h)yr.,., , where hE (Q. l ] is supplied by the modeler to control tbe model ' s predictive accuracy. This forms the following l inear programming ( LP problem of the regression coefficients C,=[c, . w,J: min We = 'Wo , ~ w i 1~m s. t. (1-h} ( U,\- + ~ w, I X;, I )-(5) i = 1. ... . 11 1~m i = l, ···. r1 t.., ~ 0, ~ 1 uncunstramtcl 111 sign , j = O. l. · · · ,m Reference [7] further extended model (5} to the case of fuzzy-output Y. = [ Yr . Yr.< ] • by extending the possibilistic constraints to that each observed fuzzy output's h-cut set i contained in that of the corresponding predicted output Y, = L.Ya, J.,] : -( 1-/i}(y,. -y.,. )~y,. - y .. ~(1 -h){y,,,_ -yr"'} . leading to the following LP problem similar to LP ( 5) : min We = 'U,\ + ~ w , 1,Q< .. S. t. 0-h)(wo+ L W ; I .x, 1-yr._ )-1~, .. (6) (co+ L CrIP )~ y. l~ j =} • •• • ,II (1-h)(u.t - L W, .I,; 1-y ... )+ I~¥ (er. -!... ~ c,x,, )~y~ i = L ·· · . 11 1<.,~ it,1 ~ 0, c, unconstrained in 1gn, j=O. l . .. ·.m Due to the linear . _possibilistic and minimizing nature of these two original fuzzy regre sion models ( 5) and ( 6), they and the subsequent similar or expanded models ( e. g .. a:ssummg fuzzy inputs. using general fuzzy numbers as regression coefficients, and adopting a better system fuzzi ness measure defined as the sum of the predicted outputs 7 spreads : Wy, = L 5'= = ~ (u.\> + 1,;;:..;. 1,<.~ .. ~ w ; I .r;, I ) ) are often referred to as fuzzy I,(,~ possibilisric regression (FPR) or min models. 2. 2 Fuzzy necessity and conjunction regression methods References [38-39J proposed another type of fuzzy linear regression model in the case of fuzzy-output . called fuzzy necessity regression that replaces the possibilistic constraints in FPR by
.:;2 necessity constraints. That is . the Ii-cut set of each observed output Y, = [y • . y,...] contains that of the corresponding predicted output Y. = [5'« . /~r ... ] : ( I - h ) ( 5J~• - y,.,. ) ~ y .. - _s;, ~ - ( I -hH5Jr.c - y~"' ) . In this ea e, the system fuzziness We- is to be maximized to expand Y, 's h-cut set as much as possible to approach that of the observed output Y, from inside , resulting in the following LP problem: max Wt = -U.' - L w , l,._;<,., s. t. ( 1-h) ( U.IJ - L w , I .r,. - y ,,,, )-( 7) i=l, ··· ,n (co- L c,x,.)~_y. i=l, ··· ,n •~,;;;;,,, w, :;?= 0, ci unconstrained in sign. j = 0, 1, · ··, m Due to its maximization feature . sometimes the above fuzzy nece sity regre sion model is also ref erred to as max model. References =38-39] also indicated very briefly a third type of fuzzy linear regression model caJlels such as those in Eqs. ( 5) and ( 6), although impler and popular, suffer from the criticism that they often produce some cnsp coefficients that have no effects on the system fuzziness ' o -~s: . To avoid this problem , references [ 46-4 7] developed a method to obtain interactive fuzzy coefficients in FPR models by assuming quadratic membership functions. Similarly, reference ~ 48] propo ed another F PR model with exponential membership functions . which was further studied-~9: . The model takes the usual FPR ::.. - - - -r fonn of Y,= C. ~C1.rJ. , ··· -Cu..r,., = C x, . where - - - - r the fuzzy coefficient vector C= (C., , C1 • ··· , C.,,) is not clef med as TF s but by an exponential membership function with center vector c and ymmetrical positive definite .. spread '' matrix W: ~ -- (z)=exp[-( ;; - c )1 w-• ( , - c )] , based on which Y, · s membership function can be obtained. Somewhat similar to LP (5) . here the parameters c and W can be estimated through the following nonlinear optimization problem: min J = L x;Wi: , = (x1 • x1 . x . )T • 1.;;,....,, W ( x 1 • x2 • • • •• x. ) T (y,-cTx , ) ! s. t. x , Wx :;?= I I i = l, · .. , n - n 1 W> 0 ( ymmetrical positive definite) , and c unconstrained in sign Lai Kow CHA.l . et al. Fuzzy Regression: Methods and Evaluations 53 2. 4 Fuzzy least squares regression: Celm:ins 's methods Also m response to the above mentioned criticism that F PR models often produce some crisp coeff1c1ents . relerence [ -.-t: propo:,t:=O. where F is a vector of value functions and p a vector of parameters. Similar to traditional least squares modeling . here observations X may contain "errors" and hence the model F ( X, p) = O may not be satisfied at X but at X plus a correction term ex : F ( X - e," . p) = 0. Then, Celmins s FL R model is to estimate the parameter vector p by solving the following nonlinear optimization problem: Minimizing W = ~l - µ x (ex ) J subject to F( X - Ex · p) = 0 (9) where µx is X ' s membership function which is usually assumed to be conical: µx( e.'\'. )=max(O . 1 -[: . which were further summarize&•1J . All these models involve the minimization of a .. least squares'' objective function- um of squares of 1 ( the maximum member hip value) minus tbe membership value of each observation vector with correction and/ or of squares of 1 minus the membership value of the parameter vector with correction . under the constraints that each observation vector and the parameter vector. with or without correction depending on the model types . are linked through a pre-determined value function. 2. 5 Fuzzy least squares regression: Diamond· s methods Roughly at the same time when Celmins's FLSR models were publishedl1N": which in fact do nm :.eem :-o stmi1ar IO the trad.rnonal lt:!a!>l squart::~ method, references [52-53] sugge ted another type of FLSR models which . minimizing the sum of the distances between each pair of the observed and predicted output val ues. are seemingly more similar tO the traditional least s4uares method. It is noticed tha t the multiplication of a fuzzy parameter and the associated fuzzy input variable, both in T F>f forms , results in complex fuzzy numbers and . even if approximated by TFNs , depends on the signs of their left and right limits but such limits of the TF. parameters are unknown in advance . resulting in difficult-tO-detennine model s tructure. To eliminate this difficulty , references [52-53] mainly used a single input to predict tbe fuzzy output ¥;=1.)'i . y;, . y ,,. t in two simple cases, i. e. • fuzzy input with crisp lope (FlCS) : Y;= .4 +bX, = 'a, . u, • a, ) -bLr ~. x . , .:r,,,) = { y~ , 5, •. . J ,,.) . whose exact formulation depends on slope b ' s sign, and crisp input with fuzzy slope ( CWS) , Y,= A-Bx,= {a, . a, , a ,l -{b1. b, . b, :r, = { J, . .Yw , 5•. I . whose exact formulation depends on input .r, 's sign. ince the predicted output value corre ponding to each input observation valuP c-oul1-
54 seemingly typical least squares procedure. However, the real situation is much more complex here because: (Din the FTCS case the exact formulation of Y, depends on the sign 0£ the unknown slope b, making Eq. (10) not a simple quadratic function of the model parameters : ® in both t he FTCS and CIFS cases the fuzzy parameters are subject to admissible constraints ( i. e. . center values must be between the corresponding left and right limits), making the minimization of Eq. (10) a difficult-w-handle nonlinear constrained optimization problem. To resolve these underlying difficulties, Diamond's method first minimizes Eq. ( 10) with p re-specified slope sign and without admissible constraints on the fuzzy parameters, whicb is indeed a traditional least squares problem. and t hen check whether or not the estimated crisp s lope has the pre-assumed sign in the FICS case and whether or not the estimated fuzzy parameters are admissible in both the FICS and CIFS cases. If yes , the estimated slope and intercept are the final results, but if not, the model could be considered unso.lvable. Coherent conditions in terms of the observed input and output data are available in both the FICS and CIFS cases to guarantee the model's solvability:52-~: . Although with increased complexity, obviously Diamond's FLSR method also applies to general linear fuzzy regression model of many input variables, as long as each input variable and its corresponding regression coefficient are assumed not to be fuzzy simultaneously so t hat the difficult-to-handle multiplication of two fuzzy numbers can be avoided. 2. 6 Two-stage fuzzy regression methods Reference [ 56] noticed the FPR model's insensitivity to certain new data points, i. e. , the FPR model (5) or (6) will remain unchanged w ith respect to all new dara points satisfying the 2007. 1 (]) exis ting possibi1istic constraints. To avoid this problem as well as to link with the traditional least squares method . reference [56] developed a two-stage procedure to estimate FPR model (5) by first fu ung a tra Po - L ( Wo -1..;;,;;,, ~ W ; I .x,. \):;?:- d o ~ < 1 - A;) Pi + 0 - h) ( Uki ,- ~ w; \ .x,, I~ ( c,, ,- ~ c ,x ;, ) ~-Yi i = ] • · ·· , 11 l~• (12) )-(1-).,)p;+O-h)( m. - ~ W ; I :r;; I )+ I~ (co+ I: c;x,, )~y, i=L ··· ,11 lQ!:;~, w, ~ 0 . Cj unconstrained in sign. j = 0 , 1, · · · , m , 1 :;?:- ,l, :;?: 0 i = 1, · · · , n Further works in this direction include reference [63] who extended the fuzzy LP to least-squares objecrive with parameters' spreads ( i. e .. w; 's) unrestricted in sign and reference [64: who extended Peters • model for non-fuzzy data to the case of fuzzy output. 2. 8 Multi-objective fuzzy regression methods lt is noticed t hat in the FPR an 0 . w1 :;?=- 0 , c; unconstrained in sign, j = 0 , 1, · · · . m References [ 41-43 J also developed an LP-based interactive decision-making method to de.rive the
56 optimal solutions of the bi-objective fuzzy regression models. By introducing a lack or relaxation variable ta each constraint involved . references [65-66] added one more obJecnve-m1mm1zmg £ " =sum of the p-th squares of the slack variables involved- to each of Sa.kawa and Yano' s three types of bi-objective fuzzy regre. sion models . and hence formulated three tri-objective fuzzy regre ·1on models. For example, the tri-objective fuzzy regre ·sion model corresponding to the bi-objective model 03) is formulated as follows, min Wr = ~ (w - ~ w, :r,, ) ( 14) maxh min £P = ~ [ Cei,.>-'" - (€& )P)] t~ r.s;;;,. s . t. ( 1 - h ) ( U.l> .- ~ wJ I .:rJ, I- y,..,. )-( Cn - ~ C JI I' ) ~ y,, - €1., , Er, ;;;?;, 0 I~., i=],· · · ,11 (1-h)(w., + L w, I I ; - Yr~-)-;-] ~ JII (cc - ~ C?-·,, )~ y, -€Ri . ERi ~ 0 I (JQ,, i= l. · ··.n 1 ~ h > 0 , w 1 ;;>-= 0 . cJ unconstrained in sign , j = 0 . 1 . · · · . m where EL and ER> are slack variables for the corresponding possibili tic constraints . p?:; l 1s a given number representing the compensation level among the slack variables and is u ually taken as l, 2 , or oc. In addition to the three tri-objective fuzzy regression models. reference = 65 J also proposed a general bi-objective fuzzy regression model-minimizing system fuzziness ( usuaUy Wi-) and minimizing £P under the relaxed po sibilistic constraints as in model 04) . which includes as it special cases the t raditional Lp regression models. the FPR models . Diamond's FLSR model. . and P eters' fuzzy LP ba eel FPR models. Reference [67] also proposed a mulr-objective fuzzy linear 2007. H !) regression model by mm1m1zmg £1' and another objective similar to least squares. 3 Evaluation of Fuzzy Regression Methods Inspired hy tb1.. pionctri1,g ·work of refor.:rn .. e::. [ 6-7 =. fuzzy regres 10n has witnessed fast development during the past two decades. The original LP based fuzzy po ibilisuc regression to mm1m1ze system fuzziness with symmetric triangular fuzzy coefficients has been f'xtended in various directions, including fuzzy regression models with more general fuzzy coefficients, fuzzy non-linear regression . fuzzy least square regression under different fuzzy distance measures , two-stage fuzzy regres ion, fuzzy LP based regression, and multi-objective fuzzy regression. Various evidences show that fuzzy regression is an encouraging method to model vague phenomena and subjective or imprecise data . where t raditional statistical regression may become ineffective. I Iowever , .'inc~ so many fuzzy regression me1hods have been proposed and . as the fuzzy regre sion literature is still steadily growing. new methods are expected to emerge, in real applications practitioners are likely to face with the problem as to which fuzzy regression method ( . should be adopted. Although this problem of selecting an appropriate fuzzy regression method for use among many alternatives available may be partly released by consulting a few comparative ·tudies in the literature to evaluate the various fuzzy regression method~Lu.;u3.~7( , the existing studies often only evaluate a few comparative pecif ic fuzzy regression methods in a somewhat too technical way and are not comprehen ive in nature . still making a good choice le s visible. To facilitate practitioners' easy under-tandings of and appropriate selections among the various fuzzy regression methods . in the following we will pre ent a comprehensive and evaluati ve summary of the key ideas, procedure , strengths and weaknesses of each major fuzz;, regression Lai Kow CHAI'\ . et al. Fuzzy Regre!'sion, Method - and Evalua1ions 57 method ba ed on a review of the vast fuzzy regression Ii terature. 3. 1 Fuzzy possibiListic regression methods Fuzzy possibilistic regression ( FPR ) methods-mm1mizing system fussines under the possibili tic constraint· such as in models ( 5) and ( 6) - are conceptually clear and computatibnally -imple in general . but do have certain problems that hinder their wider applicability , l)FPR model (5) with fuzzine s measure Wt 1s scale
58 weighted least squares problem. 3) May effectively be only workable with single-input linear models since operations of crisp/ fuzzy data and the unknown crisp/ fuzzy µan1mt!h:r:, an:
60 practitioners use m fuzzy modeling. The key drawback of this approach i_ the outlier problem which . essentially as ociared with most fuzzy regression methods and also with the traditional statl:,Ucal regres:-.100 method::. . Lan usua.li) l>~ resolved by checking the sample data and removing the extreme outliers if deemed necessary. Reference [ 91 J even :-ugge ted that . " we had better u. e the statistical regre ·ion analysis when data have outliers" and ·• we had better use the fuzzy regression analysis when data do not have outliers". To facilitate the reference needs of different r esearchers and practitioners . especially for those who are not yet very familiar wnh fuzzy regression but want easy and quick references . we suggest 10 influential and representative fuzzy regression publications to conclude thi paper . viz. references [7-8 .14 . 42 , 44 . 53 , 55-56 , 62 , 78]. References er:: DA VJDSON R. MACKIN"-"'ON J G. Eronomerric Theory and Merhods. :slew York- NY. USA, Oxford University Press-200-I [2] DA VISO:--i A C. Stati,tical Models. New York . NY. U_A, Cm1bndge Universiry Press. 2003 ::3:: HARDLE W. A pplied Nunvarn111e111t Regrc.'-Sion. :--ew York . -:,.:y . USA , Cambridge Umversiry Pm:s . 1990 [ 4] PA<..AN A. ULL.\H A. :--lonparametnc Eronometrici-. Xew York . "/'{Y. USA: Cambridge University Press- 1999 [5] YE:--: K K. G HOSHRA Y . ROIL G. A linear regression model using triangular iuuy number coefficient,;. Fuzzy Set5 and Sy~tcm.,. 1999 . 106 (2) , 167-177 ::6:: T,\.i\JAKA H. UEJL\1A S . ASAJ K. Fuzzy linear regre~sion model. In: lnternanonal Congre-s on Applied System,; Re~an:h and Cyberncucs, 1980. ACl!pulco. Mexico, 2933-2938 ~72 TA:slAKA H . UEJTMA S . ASAI K. Lmear regression analysis \\1th fU2zy model. IEEE Trans on ystems . ~Ian and Cybernetics. 1982 . 12(6), 903-907 [8] BARDOSSY A. Nute on fuzzy 1t-g:t~=io11. Fuzzy Sets a.nd Sy.stems. 1990. 37( 1): 65-75 [9] BARDOSSY A. BOGJ\RDI J. DUCKSTEIN L Fuzzy regTession in hydrology. 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SANTORO A. Goodnt'SS of fit and variable selectiull 111 the fuzzy mulnple linear regression. Fuzzy Set5 and Sy!'tems. 2006 . 157(19>: 2627-26H :::21] GCO P. TA"!AKA H. Dual models for possibilistic regression anal~'Sls. Computational Stan,ticsand Data Analysis. 2006 . 51 C l ) : 253-266 [22: HEY Q . CHAN L K. WlI M lA Balancing productiv11y (illd consumer sarisfacnon for profit?.biliry, Slatistical and fuzzy regre.-;.~ion analys1,. European JourMl of Operational Research. 2007. 176<1) , 252-263 =23:: HOXG D H. HWA.'\G C. Fuuy nonlinear regression model ba.sd on LS- VM in feature space. Lecture :slotes m Computer Science. 2006 . ~223, 208-216 =2-1] HUNG \V L. YANG ~IS. An om1ss1on appro.,eh for detecting outlieri< ID fuzz:y regression model,;.. Fuzzy Sets and System$-2006. 157(23): 3109-3122 [25: KOISSI MC. H APIRO A F. Fuzzy formulation of the Lee-Caner model for monaliry foreca.snng Insurance ~rhemarie~ and Economtel' • 2006. 39(3): 287·309 [26] KRATSCHMER V. 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Fuzzy Regres~ion Analysis. Heidelberg. Germany, Physica--Verlag. 1992: 13,-151 [55] DIAJvlOND P . TANAKA H. Fuzzy regr=ion analys1i-. In: Siow11isk1 R ed. Fuzzy Set:- ID DeciSJon Analysis. ()perauons Research and Statistics. Boscon. MA. {.;SA, Kluwer. 1998, 3~11-387 [56] SA VIC D A. PEDRYCZ W. Evaluation of fuzzy linear rcgre1
62 model for forecAsting the foreign exchange marker. Fuzzy Sets andSystems. 2001. IJ8()), 9-19 [60::: TSE:>!G FM. TZENG G H. A fuzzy seasonal A.R!l\,tA model for forecasting. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 2002 . 126(3), 367-36 (~(i !\.AU L . LH\ L L ~. LC: 275--289 =79= Bt\.RDOSSY A. HAGA.c\1A"l R, DlJCKSTEl~ L. et al. Fuuy least :: .J.27--1-10 r 83l HONG D H, SONG J K. 00 H Y. Fuzzy least-squares linear regression analysis using shape preserving operations. Information Sciences. 2001. 1380-4): 185-193 _8,C HU'.\:G W L. LIU Y C. Esrimanon of Weibull parameters using a fuzzy least-squares method. lmemanonal Journal of Cncenainty. Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems. 200-I. 12(5), 701-711 ~85] MA M. FRIEDMA.'\ M . KA."\UEL A. General fuzzy jeas1 squares. Fuzzy Set$ and ystems. 1997. 88(1) : 107-118 =86] MODARRES M. ASRABADI E. NASRABADI M .\t Fuzzy linear regres51on models with least square errors. Applied Msrhematic..s and Computation. 2005. 163( 2): 977-989 ~87= YANG M S. LIN T S. Fuzzy least-squares bnear regression analysis for fuzzy mput-ourput dal3. FU7.zy Sets and Systems. 2002, 126(3): 389-399 [ 88= DIAMOJ\'D P. KORNER R Extended fuzzy linear models and least square; ~umatcs. Computers and .Mathematics wnh Applicaaons. 1997. 33(9): 15--32 [ 89] U:: J J. H\VAl\G CH. Analysi of propeny prices before and after the opening of the Taipei subway sysrem. Annals of Regional Sci~ncc, 2004, J8(1>: 687-70l [ 90= HOJATI M, BECTOR CR. S..vUMOU K.. A simple metoo<,;} Vol. 1 ·o. 1 June 30. ~007 A Study on Macau Tourism Education: The l ndustry Perspectives Aliana Man Wai LEONG1 • Yong MA 2 ( 1. Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, China) (2. Hubei University . Wuhan 430062, China) Abstract: This paper is derived in part from the re earch findings of the Macau Foundation funded re. earch project namely ... A study on the development of internationalization and localization for Macau tourism education". It will focus on the industry perspectives of tourism education in the aspects of the current situation of the tourism programs. the demand of tourism talents and the competencies required by the industrie in order to provide concrete strategic suggestions to the local and international development of tourism education in Macau. Key ·words: tourism education : tourism industry; industry perspectives; tourism talent mx~I , -~ ~2 <1. ~Fn4tt**· l!l!r~; 2. WJ:!t::k~- ~::lt~·i\:;@frtf 430062) m~: )i:_ 'f a-~J;Jf~it* ili ~ ~ r,£~-t-f-JJ/J-t ».,"~ r5~~-ftif ~ fflHt~~.±.1t(I-J ff-J&.,oJF ~"(/.J,oJF 1/:>Ji ~. 't: ~ 'f,ijf~Jt~#~r,*~~1f : ~~J.Vtf{I-J*~lJ:U,.~~-;'-;fs!Ji\t.h v.,{~~.ff.(/.Jf; ~ ~-j; cis ~,ltll..YJi, ~i#!. rH~itt:4i 1f alJ ,l,-.±.;fv li~-if-~4't.~J!-tt(I-J Jtt~~~. ~-~ = ~~~lf;~~¼~:~~~~:~4:t 63 Background of Tourism Education in Macau I. 1 Development Trend of Tourism Education to be Internationalized and Localized With a highly export-oriented service nature . touri m industry should consider to align with the world in training talents, program design and education content. These are the most ignificant feature of tourism education in well-developed countrie m the West. The objectives of tourism Manuscript received May 4 . 2007: revised June 15, 2007 1 Dr . .-\liana Man Wai Leong. is A,-soci:ue Professor of fmernational Tourism Management, Faculty of Management and Administration.. And Direcror of School of Conrinuing tudies. Macau Univer iry of Science and Technology. Her research interest:> include Tourism Management, MJCE Management and Adult Education.. E-mail : alleoog@.musc. edlL mo, Tel: 853-7961999 2 Dr. Yong Ma. Prof~or. Dean. Academy of Tounsm Development and O.rec1or. l\1lCE Re -earch Center. Hubei Uruversny. I
64 education in Switzerland, for instance, are training highly qualified professionals with international sen-e. competitiveness in intemarional market and rhe ability to take up challenges of cross-national development of currenr to11ric;m industrv. Rec-ause of this . bi-lingual education i. implemented. Besides the compulsory foreign language course ( English ) . professional programs are taught in both English and Frencb. which allow the development of internationalized education. To align with the industrial development - it is necessary to integrate rhe strength of local resource and the strength of education in maintaining localized development features while implementing 1he internationalization of tourism education. 1. 2 Gaming Tourism is One of the Economic Development Supports of Macau Macau tourism has grown smce the early 1960s. After more than 30 years . it has become the maJor support of the economy. The development of Macau tourism industry is mainly beneficial to the three following aspects. F irsdy, gaming is a major reason in attracting a large number of touri t ·. Macau is one of the three largest gaming cities in the world and i recognized as thi> ·· Monte Carlo of the Orient". Eighty to ninety percent of touri ts come for gaming and the ratio between travel for gaming and travel for sightseeing is 7 : 3. Meanwhile . the central government concerned with the long-term benefit for lacau citizen and the fundamental needs of .\IIacau · - economy, and permitted the Individual Visit Scheme for Mainland tourists to visit Hong Kong and Macau. These two internal and ex1ernal . trategies mean that Macau economy will remam export-oriented in the long run and h,is to di>rwnd on the upport of foreign visitors. 1. 3 Macau Tourism Education is Developing by Leaps and Bounds H igher education m Macau con ·1 ts of university an.1.LctU iw:. r1:1A>l t~ti a ,-.uL:,tanual increase on the number of visitors. l n 2004.. the total number of vi itor. wa · over 16 670 000 . 40% more than in 2003, in which tourists from Mainland China was 9 500 000 . making up 57% of the total number of visitors and an increase of 66%. Total number or visitor arrivals in 2005 was 18. 7 million . which represented 12% more than in 2004 . in which ] 0 4.60 000 were Mainland visitors , who accounted for 56% of total ,·isitor arrivals and had an increase of 9. 9%. Visitor arrivals in 2006 reached 21. 99 million, an increase of 17 % over 2005 . in which Mainland China ( 11. 98 million arrirnls and a 14 % growth). H ong Kong SAR (6. 94 million arrivals and a 23% gro·wth) and T aiwan ( 1. 43 million arrivals) are the three largest sources of visitors for ~'1acau:;...,] . However, Kennedy-•· and Leong ,.,: raised concerns on the quality and quantity of tourism education in Macau. After the handover, the Macau SAR government confirmed its development trategy to be on gaming tourism. MICE and leisure center. If Macau is to progressively develop as one of the key tourism destinations in the Asia Pacific region . it is necessary to have highly qualified profes ionals chat raise the demand for integration between the internationalization and localization of Maca u tourism education. l. 5 Room Development for of Perfection in Coordinative Internationalization and Localization of Macau Tourism Education \.facau is a city of Chine e and \.Vestern cultural influences with Ponuguese being the dominant culrural influence. The mixed culture provides a strong foundation for the implementation of internationalization and localization of Macau tourism education. However, according to the current situation . integration of internationalization and localization
66 IS till undesirable. Firstly, the inter-nationalization of Macau touri m education is still superficial. The teaching methods . materials and facilities are increasing within international :,t, nJa.rJ::, , how~v~1 . Lht ov~r::a!1 "d ucat ion concept . teaching method and education system need further improvement. Secondly, the flow of exchange of overseas information 1s inadequate ( international exchange for teachers and students is still limited ) in Macau tourism education. Thirdly, Macau tourism education does not have a qualification evaluation sy tern parallel with international standard . Fourthly, the interaction between Macau tourism education and related industries is few and far between. In addition to the trai ning of outstanding professionals . tourism education should a lso provide services including management, consultation and training to the related industries. However , there is room for Macau tourism education to improve, especially the usage of internationalization theories . methods and re ources to serve local government and related industries. 2 Literature Review: E:-.-periences of orth America , Hong Kong, the PRC and lacau Based on Yu' s slu. Chon:,~- advocates furthering the potentials of the " sian Waves'' by developing an "Asian Aliana Man Wai LEO'.':G . et al. A Study on .\hcau Tourism Educalion , The lndusrry Perspectiws 67 Paradigm'' of education. This is depicted as the integration of unique Asian values , culture. people and " know how ., and promoting industry partnership in education and talent development in convention rourism. He uses the example of quality tourism education programs in a traditional way that includes .. quality of students", .. quality of faculty" and ·· university resources and support". However. Chon' experiences of the School of Hotel and Tourism Management ( SHTM) in Hong Kong Polytechnic University is to adopt a four-legged chair approach which include the traditional two legs of .. quality of faculty" and ·· university resources" plus changing one of the traditional legs from "quality of students ·• to " rudents as partners'' and adding the fourth leg, "industry as partners" , to his quality tourism program framework. The organizational chart of SHTY1 depict that all stakeholders need to be on the same page , such as students, staff, univecity , alumni and industry. to share the ame academic vision and goal setting which is leading Asia in hospitality and tourism education. Concerning curriculum design, the SHTM strategically employs the ·' Professor For A Day" Program to enhance global outlook of the students. Chair Professor· s Distinguished Lecrure Series to enhance to multi-cultural and multi-lingual aspects and to enhance students ' overseas e.Kperience by means of student exchanges , study abroad and overseas placement programs. The ultimate mis ion ,~ for the school to be recognized globally as Asia' · leader in providing high quality education, re earch and cholarship in hospitality and tourism education. Yang. Jin and Wani rn: observe that the di ·tances between tourism education and the tourism industry development in the PRC are threefold. Firstly . there is the lack of connection uetwee11 tourism e
68 research adopted questionnaire· and imerviews to gather information. Tn December 2006 . eighry-three enterprises were selected as samples of the research. Eighty-three questionnaires were di"tributed followed bv interview.;,, Eighry-one questionnaires were returned (98% ). Among the returned questionnaires , seventy-nine were rnlid. The validity rate is 97. 5% . F rom the high return and validity rates, the reliability of the srudy is effectively demonstrated. T his questionnaire consists of 17 quesnons focusing on four directions, the program development , the program. competence focus and personal information. to gather data. There are two questions on program development . four question on the program . five que tions regarding competence focus and six questions to further investigate the personal details of the samples. Please refer 10 Appendix l1 for the questionnaire. 4 Research Findings and Characteristics From those surveyed . the gender distribution is 44 males and 35 females accounted a, 56 % and 44% respectively. Tbe age structure is that 22 persons belong to the age group of 20-29 ( 28 % ) . 32 persons belong to the age group of 30--39 (41%) , 24 persons belong to the age group of 40-49(30%) and one person is more than 50 years old ( 1%). F ive are general managers (6%) . 27 functional managers { 34 % ) . 16 departmental Managers ( 20 % ) and 31 o thers ( 40 % ) . As far as the classification of t he tourism industry is concerned, 25 belong to hotel ( 32% ) , 3 are with airlines ( 4%) . one belongs to travel agency ( 1 % ) , 7 are MICE related ( 9 % ) and 43 are others ( 54%). Concerning the horizon of the industry . there are 47 local enterprises ( 60%) . 15 transnational corporations ( 19% ) . 13 enterprise groups 06 % ) and "- 69 insufficient. The demand for air travel management and travel agency management is relatively small. Synthesizing the percentage of the professionals in demand. the aulhors conclude that rnP C'IJrTPnilv PmPTging- t rn1ri<;m ,ITf'il'- s;uch a. MICE and culrural heritage urgently require a lot of professionals . the comparatively mature segment li ke the hotel industry lacks professionals due to high turnover rates . under a big range tran. itional and adjustment period . cen ain segment in the tourism industry like destin;uion rnanagement will requir e professionals who have the know-how and skills and from the tourism development status in Macau , there are large demands of professionals in every segment of the tourism industry. 5. 2 Program { degree and non-degree) This fi rst question asked if the available tourism course· meet the demands of industry development. 9 (11 %) responded sufficient, 51 (65%) considered as somewhat sufficient and 19 ( 24%) considered a~ insufficient. Based on the survey results . most enterprises considered t he existing tourism courses somewhat inadequate in meeting the demands of the industry. Almost one quarter considered the courses insufficient. This concludes that the industry perceives Jow satisfactory level of the available tourism courses. T ourism programs need to have wide range of adj ustment to meet tbe actual needs of tourism development in Maca u. When the samples are asked the program needed to be enhanced , the descending orders are bachelor degrees ( 24), training diploma ( 22), professional certification ( 18) , higher diploma (17) , master degree (15) . PhD degree ( 6) and associate degree (1 ) . The percentages in order are 23% , 21% . 17 % . 17 % . 15% . 6% and 1% re -pecti vely. F rom the hi~h dem1ind of h~~helor
70 The ranks are hotel management, tourism management . MICE management . cultural and heritage management and tourism destination management. This affirms the conclusion raised in (Jue~tiori o. 2 that de<;r;n:uion mana~emenr. MICE management and cultural heritage management will be the major emphasis of tourism education 10 the future. 1n addition . the development travel agencies and hotels have reached maturity . but the ·e two segments still lack professionals due to high turnover rates. These two segments will need a closer attention for tourism education in the long run. Lastly. air travel management deserve to attention as well because this segment is facing an emerging demand of tourism prof e sionals. 5. 3 Competence Focus This section consists of five questions. They are graduates · general knowledge. hand-on capabilities, communication skills, sense of synergy and adaptability to work environment. The indicators chosen are excellent , good . fair. quite weak and weak. Likert scale is employed to analyze the data gathered. GTaduates · general knowledge possessed is hown in Table 2 ( Mean .V1= 3. 29. tandard Deviation S = 0. 82 . Coefficient of Variation E=O. 25) . Distribution of scatters vs. graduare ' general knowledge is shown in Figure 1. With the relatively high mean ( 3. 29) and low coefficient of variation (0. 25). the fluctuations of those surveyed samples are small according to the studies of Mcclave . Benson and Sincich-?3: . The distribution of the scauers on the number line appears that 41 % of the samples fall into the nearest distance of the mean. 39 % fall into the relatively near distance of the mean and another 20% fall into the relatively far distance of the mean. It is evident that the statistic has a high degree of reliability. This reflects that the a ttitude of the industry people towards general knowledge pretty much similar. We conclude that the general knowledge of graduates perceived by the industry's percentage of good and fair are more or les the same. Meanwhile . part of the industry 2007 . 1(1) people con iders the graduates' general knowledge quite weak. This shows the variance in the competences of the graduate . The reasons why there is diversity could be the different competency focus of rhe variou, higher education institutions or the synthesizing abilities of the student themselves. Table 2 Graduates• general knowledge possessed Li.ken Scales Frequency ~umber of samples chosen ExceUenr Good Fair 3 31 32 Quire Weak 12 Weak 6~-------------------, 5 ----:_ :\ • ... ....... ~ ___ .,......, ...... I•• o~-------------------" 0 :!O 10 60 llO HJO X X=t'o. of samples. Y= Performance (5= Excellent. 4=Good , 3=Fair- 2=Quire WPak. l=Weald Fig. J Distribution of scatters , . graduates ' general knowledge Graduates' hand-on capabilities possessed is hown in Table 3. Concerning the graduate's hand-on capabilities . based on T able 3 (M=2. 72 . E= 0. 29 and S = 0. 80) , the clist ri but ion of thf' scatters on the number line appear that 52 .% of the samples fall into the nearest distance of the mean . 29% fall into the relatively near distance of the mean and another 19 % fall into the relatively far distance of the mean. Thi shows that E is relatively low and the fluctuation of samples surrounding the mean is comparatively low. Therefore . this statistics possesses high reliability. To conclude, the industry people considered graduates' hand-on abilities as fair deriving from M=2. 72. the opinions and attitudes rowards graduates hand-on abilities are similar deriving from S = 0. 80 and E = 0. 29, partial industry people considered graduates · hand-on abilities as quite weak. Distribution of scatter vs. graduates ' hand-on capabilities is hown in Figure 2. Aliana Man Wai LEONG. et al. A tudy on Macau Tourism Education: The Industry Perspectives 71 Table 3 Graduates ' hand-on capabilities possessed Likcrt Scali,s Frequency :-4umber o f ••mol~• chn.•en Exccllem Good Fair 9 41 Qui1e Weak 23 Weak 5 6-----~~------------I •• - 3 + . .......................... ·---- .... . ...... .... :'.! - · ........ I • "'-------------------... 0 '.!(I 10 611 RO X X=~o. of samples . Y- Perfom:umce (5= Excellent. 4=Good . 3=Fair. 2=Quite Weak . l=Weak) Fig. 2 Distribution or scatters , . graduates' hand-on capahilit ies 100 Table 4 Graduates' communication skills ~ Liken Scales Frequency \lumber of samples chosen Excellent Good Fair 7 23 Quite Weak 13 Weak z 6---~---------------, - :\ --··- ... ----- -- ..__ -..!. ------- - .. - -- • o"--------------------0 20 IO nO XO 100 .r X= ~ o. of samples . 1·= Performance (5= Excellem. 4=Good . 3=Fair. 2=Quite Weak. !=Weak) Fig. 3 Distribution of scatters vs. graduates ' communication skills Graduates ' communication skills pos..:es ed are shown in T able 4. Concerning graduates ' communication skills ( M = 3. 25 , S = 0. 93 . E = 0. 29) . the di tribution of the scatters on the number line appear that 43 % of the samples fall into the nearest distance of the mean, 29 % fall into the relatively near distance of the mean and anorher 28% fall inro the relatively far distance of the mean It shows that the fluctua tion surrounding the mean is relatively high . therefore, these statistics might not be very reliable. The graduates u ed absolute value of the specified items to analyze the communication skills possessed Most surveyed considered their communication skills fair sample considered the communication skills good <23) and some considered quite weak (13). It is evident tha t the opinions of the samples are not consistent. Distribution of scatter vs. graduates' communication skill · is ·hown in Figure 3. Graduates ' sense of synergy posse sed ts shown in Table 5. Concerning the graduates · sense o f synergy (M= 3. 03 . S =0. 93 and £= 0. 31) . the di ·tribution of the scatter on the number line appear that 13% of the samples fall into the nearest distance of the mean . 29% fall into the rela tively near distance of the mean and another 28% fall into tbe rela t ively far distance of the mean. Similar to previous questions . the fluctuation sun-011ncling tht> mean is high . so the mean cannot comprehensively reflect the entire picture. This should be analyzed based on specified items. Mo t people considered graduates' ense of synergy as £air ( 38) . however . tho e considered graduates' , ense o{ synergy as good ( 16) and as quite weak 06) are equaJ . as excellent (5) and as weak (4) fell into two extremes. It is evident that the opinions of the industry people towards graduates' sense of synergy are very different. Distribution of scatter v . graduate. ' sense of synergy is shown in Figure 4. Table S Graduates' sense of S)'Tiergy ~ Liken Scales Frequency Number of Mmples chosen Excellent Good Fa.tr 5 16 38 Quite Weak 16 Weak -l Graduates · adaptability to work environment is shown in Table 6. Concerning the adaptability to work environment issues , based on Table 6 ( .'\IJ =
72 .;~--- ------- --------I -- J .. ------- - ·· _:, -- ·- --I -I• ----------------=---:-:'. lt 1 0 Ul t;O ~(1 I 00 ,\ X=.' fo. of samples. Y = Performance (5= ExceUenr . 4=Good. 3=Fair. 2=Quire Weak. l=Weak) Fig. -' Distribution of scatter-s , 'S. graduates' sense of synergy 2. 99 . S=O. 91, E=O. 30). the distribution of the scatters on the number line appear that 48% of the samples fall into the nearest distance of the mean, 20% fall into the relatively near distance of the mean and another 32% fall into the relatively far distance of the mean. T his show. the fluctuation of surrounding the mean is high , so the mean cannot comprehensively reflect the entire issu~. Specific items were selected to proce s the concrete analysis. Distribution of scatters vs. graduates · adaptability to work environment is shown in Figure 5. Table 6 Graduates' adaptability to work emirownent Liken Seal~ Frequency >-:umber or "3Jll))le:.. chosen Excellent Good Fair 16 38 Weak 17 --1 "~----- ---------------, I - ~ I • o,l:.. ____ :!_O ____ J_0 ____ 6_0 ___ -:8-:-:0- ~ ,\ X = No. of sample . · = Performance (5= Excellent. -!=Good . 3=Fair. 2=Quire Weak. )=Weak) Fig. 5 Distribution of scatter-s vs. graduates' adaptability lo work environment 100 About half of the surveyed sample ( 38 ) considered graduates' adaptability to work environment as fair, however , almost equal number of samples considered good (16) and quite weak ( 17 ) . Two small portions fell into rwo 2007. 1(1) extremes as excellent (4) and wea k (4). Synthesizing the analyse above. we may conclude that Macau tourism development urgently needs MICE management . cultural heritage managemen:. and destinarion management and hotel management professionals. Therefore , this is the direction of adjustment and rectification needed for Macau tourism education programs. The industry people in general, considered romism programs in Macau inadequate to meet the acrual requirements of tourism development. T his needs further adjustment a well. T here is an imbalance in quantity and quality between the industry demands for professionals and the supply of graduates. T here is a mismatch between the competencies required by the industry and the competencies focused on by tounsm education. Meanwhile . Macau tounsm development call for a proportionate supply of various academic credentials, profe sional accreditations as well as skills training and upgrading. Therefore . tourism education in Macau needs to actively respond to the industry demands by primarily adjusting the overall tourism education programs and progressively manage the conuasts between the supply and demand of professionals. The percentage of various academic credentials and other qualifications needs to be well coordinated as well. In general. the industry perceived graduates' general. knowledge, hand-on abilities , communicational skills . sense of synergy and adaptability to work environment is mediocre. F urthermore . the industry's perceptions towards graduates' competencies are inconsistent. Therefore, Macau tourism education must adjust the existing talent cultivation modules in order to meet the ever changing tourism development needs. Further re earch on the perspectives of students a · well as the higher education institutions will be highly recommended to outline Aliana Man Wai LEONG . et al. A Study on Macau Tourism Eclucarion: The Industry Perspectives 73 more comprehensive pictures to provide trateg1c uggestions to the local and international development of tourism education in Macau. References [1: 1nstitute For Tourism tudie"- Annual Report of ln.stitute For Tounsm tudies [ EB OL : . htrp: v.·ww. ift. edu. mo publica11on annual 03-041con1en1s. hrm: http: W\VW. ft. edu. mo publication annual '0-H)5 content~. hun. [:?: Bachelor of international tourism management oi Macau Umver"-ity of Science and Technology rcc,:,tvcd ccni£ica11on [N]. t\o1acau Daily :-lews. 2007-03-22(1?.2) . [3: Bachelor of intema11on.nl tourism management 01 ~au Cnm•rsity of Science and Technology received TedQual certification=::--=. Ve. Kio Pou. 2007-03-22(--1). =4= Macau University of Science and Technology rteeeived TedQual certification =N:. Si Man Pou. 2007--03-22( 4 l. =5= Pres.- Release of Macau G1>vemment Touri;st Office. Macau celebrates recording-breaking 20 million ,1snor arrival5 [ EB OL]. [2006·12--03=. http: www. macautouri.;rn. gov. mo en emagazme pressdetaiL pbp? lan=eng.id=l680. ( 6] Macau Stausrics and Census Scn1ce. Visitor arnvals by plare of residence{EB OL]. hap, 1 1 ,vww. tlsec. gov. mo index. a~p? re = chinese ' indicat0r, c_rnr_indica1or. html. [7= KE:-JNEDY L Macau tourism m rraru;tion , a PATA task force study. tvlacau. China: PATA and .\1acau Government Tourist Office. 1995. :s: I.EOJ'\G M W. Macau toon:sm outlook in the new economic~ Wl.: z L. [£O'.',;G W C. f\ilacau 2002. Macau. Chirn,, Macau Foundation. 2002 , 245-260. =9= LEO:S:G M W. Competim-e advamage.s of MJCE mdustry m .Macau and 11s human resources consideration, Wl.. Z L. IEO:--:-G W C. Macau 200-I. Macau. China: Macau Foundation. 21l04. : 10J YU L Developmg .l\1ICE education program, ahgn learning objectives with industry needs and eXJ>ec'fations Proceedings of rhe 200--1 International MICE Education aod Tranung Forum, Aug6-7.2004. Shanghai , China. Shanghai, Shanghai :'formal University. 200-I: 131-139. : 11: REICH A z. DEFRA>-:CO A L How to teach so students will learn: Pan one. Hospitality and Tounsm Educator. 199 • 6 , the Ml:ST perspectives ' Proceedings of 2005 Pacific Asia Tra\'cl A,,,;ociation Educators' Forum: Educa11on and Industry Panner~hip, m Tourism. Apr 16 . 2005 .M,,.cau. China. Hong Kong. China: School of Hotel and Toun,m Management ( SHTM ) . Hong Kong Polytechnic Um,·crslly, 200.:; , 64-71. : is] C HO:-; K. Global perspecuves on educanon and talent development in con\'ention 10urism Proceedings of the 200-1 International MICE Education and Training Forwn. Aug 6-7 • 200-1 . Shanghai. Cluna. Shanghai: Shanghai Normal Uuiver.
71 2007. 1(1) Appendices Appendix J: Research path: A study on the development of internationalization and localization for Macau tourism education. . "Cl Q. -~ ~r (l) -:::> N (l) Q) :E"" Q) 0 - => System of teaching content Education process Teaching skills and methods Education resources allocation Source : LEO G M W and MA Y ( 2006). Research proposal of a study on the development of internationalization and locaJization for Macau tourism education. Macau University of Science and Technology. Appendix II : Questionnaire for "A tudy on the development of internationalization and localization for Macau tourism education" ( lndu try) Aliana ¼n Wai L EO:--fG . er al. A rudy on '.\ltacau Tourism Education, The lndusrry Perspecrive." 7;) l umber : ____ ____ _ 23 ~ovember . 2006 Chief executive officer . management , ladies and gentlemen: Thi" que._t·onnaire is; dei;igned for .. t.\ " udy on the develop'Tlent of internationalization a~d loca.!ization for Macau tourism education". The aim of this questionnaire is to understand the current situation and development of tourism education , investigate the expected value , quali ty and capability of tourism education in the Asia-pacific region. ; Your comment is valuable for the study. AH information collected is used solely for research purpose and is not opened to the public. Thank you for your co-operation! Yours faithfully . Associate Prof. Aliana Leong Project Chief Investigator (E-mail: alleong@must. edu. mo) I Program Development I[ 1. Which category/ categories of professional(s) is/ are insufficient 0 Tourism operation 0 Tourism research :=i Tourism management CJ Tourism education 2. What type( s) of professional( s) is/ are insufficient 0 Tourism management 0 Travel agency management 0 MlCE management 0 Cultural heritage management i:J Destination management 0 Air travel management 0 HoteJ management 0 Others _______ (Please specify) P rogram ( degree and non-degree) 3. T he available tourism courses meet the demand of industry developmen\ C] Sufficient O Somewhat sufficient =:J Insufficient 4. The program needed to be enhanced i:] Professional certification :=i H igher diploma 0 Bachelor degree 0 Training diploma D Associate degree D Master degree O PhD degree 5. The available tourism program can meet the demand of the society • Sufficient :::::J Somewhat sufficient L Insufficient 6. The courset s) in demand is/ are ( Please rate from 1 to 8 , according to its importance) '.:] Tourism management 0 Travel agency management C Destination management D Air travel management
76 D MICE management 0 Hotel management D Cultural heritage management D Others. _______ ( Please specify) Il[ Competence Focus 7. Graduate·' general knowledge possessed :J Excellent D Good ~ Fair O Quite weak 8. Graduates' hand-on capabilities possessed :J Excellent D Good :J Fair O Quite weak ~. Graduates' communication skill possessed D Excellent C Good :J Fair D Quite weak I 0. Graduates' sense of synergy possessed C Excellent = Good :J Fair O Quite weak l l. G raduates' adaptability tO work ennronment L, Excellent D Good C Fair O Q uite weak N Personal information( optionaJ) 1. Title : =:J General manager :J Functional manager 0 Others _______ (Please specify) 2. CJassification of the tourism industry: D Hotel :J Airline D Travel agency D Other _ _______ ( Please specify) 3. Horizon of the industry: 0 Weak D Weak D Weak r Weak ~ Weak D Departmental manager • MICE related 0 Local enterprise 0 Transnational corporation 4. 5. 6. D Enterpri e group =:] Others ___ ( Please specify) Place of origin : D Mainland China D Others D Hong Kong _______ (Please specify) Gender: O Male D Female Age: 0 Macau :]20-29 0 30-39 040-49 0 50 or above 0 Taiwan 2007. H 1) ~l~ ~lAA 2007 1F 6 fJ 30 El ~ r, n tt * ~ ~ :ffl lounul of !\.l:><.111 Uni,or-1t} of c,ence and Tcchoolc,:,') VoL 1 :--lo. I June 30 . 2007 it -;;- A*~ Ji * 1mt ~ -r tl ~ a{] ~Jf ~ : t:f:l r@ 5~ ff ~ a{] IJL~~ tiii~: ~tt 'f l~ib'A t¼ ' ~i!!.~J.t~li:fu Pi$-~#a -~~m t¼-ttf\;.-t A.~¼+\~ A~atJ .:g..#Al ~ro-t.~1 .i&-¼i;;J-Jt.1i-~¥J~~•ti, "f1t:•t±,'71.,I JJ~~-=t-z.1t- . :if.;tr- 1l!lY~ilJ ·· ~~~-f'l"~ -t • ~ ~ i:?I- fa! ~ -t r:t. 1 -fJ 1ff ;'Af J ¼-t-t f\;. -t A. flJ -tt il-J.t .z tt- . trt -f ~ ¼ a-!J s $- .:¥-. ;ff , ~ gJ -t k :k. $£ ~~~1mt¼#f\;.-tA.~¼R-tA~flJ¼M-c~~~~~~a_mt¼~~~#~~.~#4~ •f± , ~ -5 I JJ $1 ~ &'-~ fiil 3 1!!l fsl -=f , -ttr ~ af it It ,t ~ ro -t * ~ (llJ {ij: >!- • Jt ~J - 1!!1 ~ f ¼ -t--M-.1.t.Ai ~ o {t.Jflit , fit11..~# , lfil-t~;t!j-, W!f;1J #-¥-,t.-j:,ijf~-}Fit, .-;f&-~$-Jit/f.~~15l-;f.-~1i'l 'f ~1!!l~,j:f1J>1i jt ¼Y:ill.€f.J ~ -t. ~ *41-JJl., ,ii t .:t--!~~:t.lJ Jl :ftil-f\;.-t A.,&._$.-R -t ,f,, ifs!J ~ ro .;;it-tf" >Jf t¼:tt *+'Z i A.,t., ~ e~ 4- :f:·t!, •~J3 In ft>~~~-~ alJ ~-af ;f.¥.Jl;tf fifi. ,~ t ¼1-b#·ft ~ A.#ljf 'f ~ 4 :fAi, '!&3 I fJ ;fc ~ ~ ~- f'l lG' ( l. Macau University of Science and Te<:hnology. Macau. China; 2. Peking University, Beijing 100871. Chin;;) Abstract: This research. wirh the creditability source factor model (C FM) a:; reference, tends to build an endor:,er like rource factor model ( LSFM) through qualitative ( in-depth interviews, content anai}•si;.) and quanritative methods in the China context. Aher conducting fact0r analy-is and a regres.~ion te ·t, the research results show that the reason Chinese consumers on the mainland like endorsed products is the endorser. And the sources of 00 likes'' are related to endorsers' expertise. attractiveness, and national recognition. The more consumers like endorsers, the stronger consumer imemiom, to purchase endorsed products. The research has also found the mediation effect of ·•likes" is significanr in the fitted model. Though the model can be better designed. the prototype could be used m related and furtlier research. Key words: endorser: tike model; expemse, attracriveness; national recognition l(i:.;f,f; El .Jl.ij :2006-12-27; ,f,}-sr El JJI ,2007-04-26. ~ ~ t) ~#~~½j-M.!Ji El (70472024>. 77 .. ~~-if¼: t•J Tc.. JI!. ;t!:. :y. :k ~ -fl-f-if J£"°0C ~i:-if J£ ~±. ~ r, ##.k ~ft.itiHf J1'. J¥- fltJhJ!.ft.~ . f fl-~#.- Ern.,;t &. Young Consulting (Taipei Beijing> Y~..&. k~ 13i" ~ fit
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(3g ~ ~ - ti!Hlt vlit ~~ 0 m1~ ffilM 2007 ~ 6J 30 13 ~ r1 lf tt * * !sf!= ffl Journal of Moc.1u Uno,er;ity of Scienac aod Technology Vol 1 :--.io. 1 June 30 . 2007 93 Managers and Their Lawyers: Minimizing Tax, Maximizing Ethics, and the Business Decision-Making Process 7 Richard KREVER ( Monash University, Australia) Abstract: Company managers will encounter numerous opportunities to reduce thei r companies ' income tax burdens. How chey should react to those opportunities is a question of both ethics and business judgment. Truly artificial transactions with no underlying commercial purpose apart from tax minimisacion cross over the thresholds of both acceptable ethical behaviour and sound business practice. There are , however , many instances where the intent or meaning of the tax legislation that could apply tO legitimate business arrangemen ts is ambiguous or capable of alternative interprerations. Some argue that in these cases company managers have a duty to shareholders lO pursue the path chat attracts the least cax. While this may look logical in the short term, it may be an example of poor long-term business judgment. The preferable approach from a business judgement perspective may be to bear a small amount of additional tax now to avoid raising the ire of the tax authorities and face continual scrutiny and investigation over tbe longer term. Key words : tax avoidance : tax evasion: 1ransfer-pricing; business ethics g !I~ lo~ 1M tfJ qf Eifi : m ~ iw: 1J, ,ft, ~ ~@: fi ~ * {t ~ ~ ~ ~ ffi: ~ f¥ Richard KREVER ( Monash **, ~::kf!J§:) mi~ : /t)-,3) !:H.t1r1;;ffit.~ .& ir9~ir"~~~tt!:,1rif/.J Plrtt'f.lt.1! ~. ~1-J:tt#it~~~ ~ik.ih!.~f/.J ;fc~ :t E¥J Jil Ira .ft,.il:c f/.J:a~J x. I;. l!p '-t-1 M->'.lrtt-ift:& ,J, -It v:Hh1.;;ff ;t, ,(i_ E¥J ?-!~ ~ a'-J u!-i $_ I; . ~•l-JJ-~it.J1J J of~ .:ji. ~ E¥J l!!. ~ -ft ~ ~ ft -!tf tf ~ 'rn ~,] a'-J ~ ~ o .~ im , ~ J ft >JL ~ ll}l J! Jij ;#-1}-* ~ jt ~-if~ ll>J ift >it ~*fil.J~-~~~-E¥J4¼ft•~-ft!:,-#f/.J . ,fi_it~lt~TAmaA.~~Ei!J-~~;;{f**A~ ~ 1rl 4-~~ ~,t.tM:, trJ~ 3tt.it1i. " Jft~ ~.JIJI ;;fr~ tt:~-t-f¾.il!.#, 1!?-k-:f-j-... bitil ur~tA P.r&.J!Jl·t1. ti Manuscript received April ] . 2007. The author is a Professor in the Faculty of Business and Economics at Mona~h Universiry. Australia and Director o{ the University's Taxarion Law and Polic}' Research Inst itute.
94 2007. 1(1) ~.Pl $i"fr!JJ.t~-if•l i-. ~ ~~#'J~ ft J.l~ f ., .fli.-H-
96 out of the jurisdiction to a lower tax jurisdic tion by underpricing supplies to related companies in the lower ta xed jurisdiction or overpaying for acquisirions from tho, e companies. Tr::n:- fer pricin~ ~ufes '-L:•!e ha regardleo,s of the amount actually paid . for tax purpo!;'es a company must record a sale to or acquisition from a related company at the .. fair market value•· of the good or service. In the case o f generic commodity commonly traded on the ow•n m;:irket . a company manager can be fai rly confident the company · s financial department is using amounts that can pas-any scrutiny by t he tax authority. The task becomes much more challenging when dealing with a fi rm-specific good or service for which there is no open market. H ow does one value the right to use an exclusive process or patent or copyright·? H ow does one value goods or services for which there is no equivalent on the market - management advice by particular individuals . the use of cu~tom designed proprietary software o r unique technological devices? In these ea -es . there may be a wide range of views of the " value" of the supply to or acquisition from a related company and, as a consequence , a range of val ues attributed to the transaction by Jiffererll persons. If there is a plausible ba is for all of the possible values . could it be argued that it is unethical or improper for a company manager to direct h is accounting department to choose the "market value" that triggers rhe lowest tax liabi lity? There are actually two issue, that a company manager has to confront in this situation. The fir st is the ethical question - would it be wrong to choose the most tax effective transfer price-while the second is more pragmatic : from a risk management perspective. are there sound business reasons to minimise rax or to pay more than the minimum tax possible now to aven the ri k of even higher taxes in the future. The answer to the ethical question is relatively 2007 . 1(1) clear-cut. In the case of an intra-group transaction involving a good or service for which there 1s no o pen market, attribu ting a market value necessarily requires judgment calls. There are a number of method., ,.cccptt:d internr.,iom,H) !or attri buting a value to these transactions and so long as a legitimate method produce a reasonably arguable outcome . that figure is arguably as sound as any other. The pragmatic consideration somewhat more compl icated. T o avoid the risk of la rge penalties . the manager must en ure that the price cho.en i. plau ible ; that i . there mu -t be a valid basis for a rguing that value i. a legitimate market Yalue for the transaction. There are two perspectives that might be applied once that threshold is crossed. On the one hand . it might be argued that a value that yields greater tax ·avings i more likely to raise a red flag and invite rax office scrutiny. This view suggests that for strategic business purposes, a sensible manager would use an intermediate value less likely to a ttract the attention of the tax authority. On the other hand, the astute business manager might realise that there is a substantial likelihood tha t the tax authority will dispute the transaction whatever value is chosen once the authority realises thi 1s a transaction between connected partie . If that is true . there is a case for using the most tax effective value tha t can be justified as this is likely to be the stamng poim in negotiations with the revenue authority as ro ·where the market value should ultimately be set. At the end of the day . the final amount chosen will probably depend on advice from tax advisors experienced in negotiations with the tax authority over value. 2. 3 Engineered business transactions The next stage along the acceptable to unacceptable tax planning spectrum involves the rede ign of transactions to t ake advantage of Richard KREVER Managers and Their Lawyers, .\llirumizing Tax. Maximizing E1hics-and 1he Business Dec1s1on·making Pro=s 97 inconsistent cax rules. A notable example i. the use of a •· repo •· transaction as a substitute for a conventional . ecured debt. 1n an ordinar y short-term debt . a lender provides fund~ to a borrower who return" dit: funds w1Ll1 1nlt!rest when the loan matures. To protect the lender. a " security interest " in some property of the borrower _i. transferred to the lender for the duration of the loan. l n a ·• repo" transaction, a borrower .. sells '' an a:- et to a lender and provides a put option that will require the borrower to repurchase the asset a t the end of the loan period. The repurcha. e price is set a the original sale price plus a premium equal t0 the interest that would ha ve been paid had the tr ansaction been structured as a loan. E conomically . the repo t ransaction is identical to a .-ecurt:d loan. In form . however . it is different . comprising a sale . an option . and a repurcha e for a higher price. lf the tax law treats interest on loans differently from gains on a purchase and resale ( for example , by imposing a withholding tax on interest payments to non-re idem lenders but no withholding tax on gains from the purcha e and resale ) • there may be considerable tax savings if loans are restructured as repo tran actions. Should company manager be cri ticised for pursuing this option and reducing their borrowing cosrs? In some jurisdictions . company managers will never face these sons of e thical questions. The courts in ome ( but no t many} countries adopt a ''substance over form" approach to applying tax laws and on their own recharacterise a transaction so it ubJect to the tax law as if its legal form were the same as the true economic substance of the arrangement. More commonly , however, court· respect the legal form of a transaction and leave it to the legislature to ensure laws are drafted sufficiently broadly to catch all the types of transactions at which mea ures were targeted. One might argue that in these case the legislature probably intended pruv1s1ons such as those imposing a withholding tax on interest to apply to returns to lenders making loans . however tbe loan may be labelled in the documenta tion. 1t wuu:J ;uiluw thc1t JtliLcrc1,c a.,templ:, .o circum\'ent the intention of the law by taking advantage of the courts' respect for form over . ubstance , - an abuse of the law and comparnes caught entering into substitute arrangements for the purpose of minimising tax deserve any penalt ies they may ·uffer when caught. The counter argument i, equaJly persuasive . however. lncon ·istencies are common in tax law and it is not unusual for a lax law to provide different rules for two imilar but lega11y different 1ransac1ions. A legislarure that know· court-; tend to interpret tax law · literally and nevertheless uses specific term-; in the law such as '"interest'' rather than describing the commercial or economic nat ure of the transaction might be presumed to have intended different tax treatment for - in th is example - interest on loans and gains on repo transactions substituted fo r loans. It might be more than just presumptuous of a company manager to second guess the lawmakers and a sume tney wamed similar 1reatment for transactions not described in the legislation; it might be dead wrong. From the eth ical perspective at least it is difficult to find fault with the company manager who agrees to use a form of 1ra11 action that prima facie attracts a lower tax burden where the legislation is narrowly drafted and the legislator know courts construe tax law · narrowly. This does nor necessa rily mean company managers are making the right decision from a business perspe-ctl\'e . however. From the bu ine~s manager · · viewµoint . the 4uestio11 ilf not whether a tax effective arrangement is morally justifiable o r technically a rguable . but rather whether it makes good short-term and long-term business sense. The question 1s not simply whether the company can win if tts characterisation of a
98 transaction is challenged by che tax aut hority and the company appeals to the courts. The key issue . rather, is w hether the long-term costs of an initial victory might be greater than the tax savings. ,\mong od11::r lhlllg:,, tnt;::n11g 1mo .. ram,<1Ltion:, that satisfy t he strict letter of the law but which may be viewed by the tax authority a contrary to the spirit of the law may trigger alarm bells in the tax office and lead to red flags at tached to the company ' s tax returns for long into the future. The costs of continual audits and challenges if the tax authority views the company as a potential avoider might well outweigh the small initial tax savings. Unless there is a genuine ambiguity as to the intention of the legislature and the company can argue with confidence that its position i. equal in strength to that of the tax authority in terms of the policy intent of the law ( whatever its literal reading) , the prudent manager may shy away from the apparently more tax effective version of a transaction . particularly if that ver ion is not one that the company would normally pursue. 2. 4 Tax-avoidance schemes Final ly. at the far end of the tax planning spectrum are the tax driven t ransactions that have no busine s rationale apart from their tax benefits. These are transactions t hat do not yield pre-tax profits commensurate with tbe investment made ; they are explicable only by reference to the after-tax. profit they generate t hrough manipulation of the tax sy. tern. Commonly labelled tax avoidance schemes . these arrangements are developed by tax planners with the clear intent ion of abusing inconsistencies and anomalies in the tax law for gam. The after-tax benefit taxpayers seek m avoidance schemes of this sort ( the arrangements may generate economic losses in the real world, before taxes ) mosI often arise because of mismatches in the law. Schemes are carefully devised by promoters to exploit the e mi matches. They may. for example . be based on fully deductible expenses t hat yield profits which are 2007. 1( l> partially exempt for tax purposes or that are assessed at a lower rate than the rate used ;o calculate the benefit of the deductions. Other times t hey a re based on timing mismatches such a· up lrom rec:ognitio11 0! a n exptn:,t incurred tu der;ve offsetting income while che offsetting income is not recognised until long into the future. More sophisticated schemes involve complicated offsets-non-recourse loans that are offset by deposits so there is no genuine commercial debt created or corporate reorganisations that have no purpose apart from invoking tax rules that generate tax benefits without triggering compensatory tax liab,liries. It is . perhaps . not surprising that many legitimate companies dip their toe into the tax avoidance waters and experiment with avoidance schemes of this sorL T hey often de,-ised by very sophisticated marketers and unti l recently even some of the largest and most respectable consul ring and accounting firms were involved m the business. With criminal charges pending m many cases . the larger firms have dropped out of the scene but lower tier promoters continue to market avoidance arrangements. It sounds too good to be true-money for nothi ng thanks to the tax system. And it is too good to be true. Inevitably. the schemes unravel and when they do firms caught up in the arrangements will face significant penaltie~ as well as large tax bills and compound interest expenses for the unpaid tax. The promoters who sold the company managers on the schemes in the first place and the Jegal and accounting adviser-who signed off on them are inevitably immune from any liabili ty to compensate for the losses their schemes cost the company in the end. 3 The Bottom Line : Tax Issues as Business Questions Company managers sometime flounder with tax issues precisely because they regard the problem: a being tax questions. If the}' instead realise tax quesrions are merely another type of Richard KREVER Managers and Their Lawyers: :V1inimizing Tax. Maximizing Ethics . and the Bu:;ine~:; Decision-mab.'ing Proces~ 99 business decision and rely on b usiness intuition, they are more likely than not to come up with the right decision. If a transaction makes sense from a business perspective before rnx . it ' 11 a lmos1 always make sense after tax. If a transaction makes no business sense apart from the tax benefits it promises , it is not a sensible transaction. If tbe legislation offers dear choices carrying different tax burdens and either choice makes sense from a business perspective. the lower tax route is a sensible one ro follow. If the other choice is the more sensible path co follow from a business perspective, however. the business perspective should prevail. And finally , any potential tax benefit. of recharacterisaiion of a transaction to achieve a legal form different from its economic substance must be weighed against the potentiaJ longer-term damage that might follow if the tax authority target the company a.s a tax minimiser. Balancing risks and reward::: is what company managers do be!"t - the be:,t approuch ,G rt'solving t&x 4u;:::,t;on:; i:- to tum them into business questions. References =l] LE~OD J. The economic.< ol rorporetc tax selfishness. National Ta>< Joum~J. 200,l . ~7( D , 877. :zJ COOPER G. The tox avoidanccclynam,c , n telcof rax planmng. tax ethic,. . and u1x rcfom1. Columbia uw Renew. 1980. 80, 1553. =3] COUSTA .. '! H , NOL~'\' J. Exa'Irining rhe line: balancing the-duty to the diem with the duty to the tax sy•rem. Taxes . 1997: 82~. =~] FRTEDMA)f M. When 1he tax tail doe,.-n"t wag the busines.~ dog. Canadian Ta >< J oume!. 2006 . 5~ ( 3 >: 719. ~~r,~tt:k~t!*~~~-igjH-?!iJflJ'1!$~,r,g111.~11f5'~~fflfll~JflJ~liff3i3r±ffl3iiJfff~*"ffi"~~ r 2007 ~ 1 J:l 24 B ~ 26 8 $~iLlf4:kID':f r,,,. 25 B _tlf. !IPJlff~*;ffi"~~;(:Ef.ll-:k1'1=T ~~--Jj_iJ1:~21..~z. WJ (o] "(J~~~~~ -fr~T '~ ~[R t5H!ll''JiJAAHJ$~!Jj fii1, 1f ~~ p;i:f!-tt:Jnui~m,~Hl*~~B~ rJJ~, IV..& tE i§.-ffi~ im ~-@-fFl'J9rtr~ffl~~. ~m~~~~~ffi~~~~~$~*~.$~*~~~*~-~~~~~~1fxm~~. ~*ffi~~~ §: ~ pq :S'~t!~~lf]JfJW$ r,~. llilX-ftl!$~HfHlif*# * lm~*#f3tmL * El ~r~tt'11Jfii!t~~~~~,fiil!lt!$P.!, v~if -~W?.t1i'i!fh%'i: -~~t!-tlif0¥. ~"r,~~"M ~Jllt$F,l'J9'§" ffil ffl$*~*1llV..:k~~~l¥JffiP~-~tl:lf.t7i!il:~@-. ~ wt~~~ '~ffl'~*~~tf i£lliJX11ii~it ..tYifl' iB B91f rffl &.it~ Er'.J II~~$' . fllvf ~:!m foJJJU~;(:E~r, l't9 ociJ\:~.I f1=~1f~~!tfl¥.l'.l'~J~~. ''~±l~iiPlrf~m~ii1"ttl4*~ 00 m~r,ntt:k~ ATtHt~JtuiJf~FJr , ~r,trtrr~~~it, w'iiffi:.rs!Jff, wJJr~fftrrlW0*~ 1EJ~mH9<'1iri~mmi&fti!JJJr-iiJf-Jt:»*1ut.slWJ-··~~~1tFJr~ffi:~ffl'' .it 2007 ~ 3 JJ 16 a ;(:Emrnltt :k~$-rr. ili~~r,i~~~fJ~Rt,llJtslT;;r-y~~tt~1tfiw~l'r-Jie~~.lt.~Z.mi*B9~$51}:lt!!~~A.~?JF~~ ~:(:E~r,.I ft= -:@l!t~JtA.Jl tE~r, L¥.JMA.~iiYrWfft~~nfiiJ~~? ~- 1roo. ~-m~=:!i!!.l'l~tJJ ,x~~ffl jl . m ~ie~!JJ' ij ?Ji
100 m1~ ~l.Jl.11 2007 1f: 6 Jj 3(J 13 Joumul ol .\lacuu U,m~r,il) of Science .uul Taiu,ultl'~) Foreign Investment in Perspective: Vol l :\'o. l ] une 30. 2007 the Road from Bretton Woods to Marrakesh Theodore PAR. -ALL1.2 ( l. School of Law. university of New Mexico , USA) ( 2. Macau University of Science and T echnolog-y. Macau . China) Abstract: There- were a number of Jevelopments in the legal framework affecting transnational trade and capital flows during the nearly half-century between the iniriation of a rule-based international economic order at Bretton Woods . . ·ew Hampshire in 1944 and the creation of the World Trade Organization ( WTO) in Marrakesh , Morocco in 1994. One of the unstated premi-es of the Bretton Woods accords was that economic development and widespread prosperity could be facilitated by legal institutions that increase the stability and p redictability of economic t ransactions. A review of some significant events of the five decades between Bretton Woods and the creacion of t he WTO provide some perspective on how investment and trade were increasingly facilitated by positive developments in legal ins titutions. Each of the five decades within this fifty year period is presented in terms of a few events tbat appear as iUustrative central theme of that decade, followed by a summary of certain legal issues that were espe<:ially in focus during the decade, A. 1947 ~ 1957 , the post-war framework emerges : tbe end of lhe colonial period , with newly independenr countries laking charge of their resources, which led to the creation of a number of new international legal institutions, many of wbich still exist today. B. 1957~ 1967 : nationalizations and exprop,·iations , as countries tried to balance the costs and benefits of international invesm1em and trade . many opted for full or partial nationalization and the us-e of state-owned companies to develop their economies. C. 1967~1977: foreign investment as a tolerated s tepchild, with their economies lagging, some countries began a gradual opening of the doors to foreign direct investment (FDl) in order to stimulate development. D. 1977 ~ 1987 : a reassessment of the benefits of foreign investment : more and more countries began to use FDI to dea l with the problems of lack of funds for development, unemployment . lack of management skills . limited access to foreign markets . and technology transfer. E. 1987 ~ 1997 : lo ! AFT A a11J Marrakesh : mi~ : ~ vt 1944 lf#3f Ati"tt~ :'tl #ji 'lt?Ji~~ :I! {f!J ~.;i.,tf_~P,•J ~~_Lif~ e] ~.~~~;f f1 1994 4-¥/;i$-,f .~,µ.~fti4 ,t t/' ~ ~ e~i!t-.fr-W $., tJI.~(WTO)~i!tf'1gi-J!t-&. ~- *#tWc!4H%J ;tf T #- J ~ .f. ~ II jf :i ;fo jf-* 5ilt ib il9 ik ~ . ,ffp" 1; ?J 4->#. ~ ;t {f!J - -fro * ~ "Jl 1iff ilk 1i~ ~ .tJt ~ l@. ~ x ~ €r-J ~ ,tA± ;fc-'ffi Jl.Ai. alJ * ~ -#Ht if! .11/J .#- if ;;{- {llJ -i-A.~¼ :i&_ s'-r~ ~ C ~ 1$ 't 4Ji k ~ tt ~ f 1J -t!t jf ~Ji ~ ~ >t s!J 50 lf Y :k. $#-€r-J l!!J~, J?.)~-frH'RM~:t jf :i,iu1Df.ff.li#-**~t!:flJ ~.A1.1¾-Jk~ ~ T ;i-JJ.,JfJ, i& *elJ 50 4 'f ir-J lt1ID 10 4, ~4f ttll~l!'f & 'f ,,:;~~il9 ?f#-* 1:. .-/f ~ ~ J.l €r-J Jt- ~ f1l ffl ~ ~ !l\tf\,k,,:; n1*#M,t!. 1947~ 1957 : .fUt~PJ-Jf5 fi:(. : 1.i~*1\~ ~. - ~#4Jf .;i.~~~ Im Mi j__JV-. i\1 t s~ "i;lf. . iktlfif J, ~ ~,t1.fl1 *#t~tl+f i,1:~iL .itf fi9 £417) .~1f,/f.. 1957~ 1967, t;~1t.;futitift : -t ~ ~,tf. 'f~#i~ ;ki' ~ ~~;fct•l .iis~ st~-it J, ~4i1::-~~ ~ 71-€r-J l@;tf 1t;fu ~ ~ ¼~fi9-JfJ #.. ~-it lk* ~ ~* o 19s1~ 1911, ?r"f.i~ jf¥k.;iJL».ii..t~.~{f!J ?r..-*tr-J ,J,,¾ : di*~*~~, - ~@~~ -r -11•1 ;:tt_,i--J&:. ~;llr#?!-1,}j A~ 1t"iliir
102 Basic. Review 1. l Generally In earl}' 1997 , global nade and investment appeared to have reached a new high-water mark . lollowmg several aecades or growth and expan ion of foreign investment laws, international and regional regimes to govern trade , and bilateral trade and investment agreements. There was a strong sense of optimism about the future of the world. On July 2 , 1997 , however, beginning with the fall of the Thai baht , certain darker trends emerged rhat began to cloud this optimism. The 1997 Asian financial crisis . the so-called dot. corn crash in the lJ. S. secunnes markets, financial scandals in maJor international companies s uch as Enron. WorldCom. and Parmalat- the traumatic events of September 11 , 2001 , the widely criticized and ill-planned military intervention in lraq, and the fail ure of t he WTO Doha Round combined to lower expectations that the world had reached a new, law-oriented , " golden age '' of trade . invesrrnent and global developmentf fo re;gl" direc• ir,T:o-trncn• ( FDI ) , which increased from approximately S 60 billion in 1985 to an estimated S 315 billion in 1995. © Despite the darker events since 1997, 1l?e rapid growth of global trade and investment. and its increa ed role m the non-western world continues wday. with China surpassing western countries as the world's largest recipient of foreign direct inve tment (FDI) for the first rime in 2002. It is probably fair to say that law has made a ubstantial contribution to what has been characterized as a •'flatter world''Q)_ 1. 2 The Positive Side of FOi As a means of increased economic development . supporters of FDl poim out its benefits in technology transfer 10 host countries , trade expansion, job creation and more rapid economic development and integration into world markets. One of the unstated premises of the Bretton Woods accords was that economic development and widespread prosperity could be facilitated by legal instit ut ions that increase the stability and predictability of economic transactions. T oday . many are suggesting that democratic institutions may be advanced in this way as well. With respect to FD1. rhe host country would benefit because its income will increase by more than the income received by the mvestor : if FDT increases output of the host country, the host country will gain unless the entire increase is taken by the inveswr. Domestic labor benefits from higher wages ; consumers benefit from lower prices and/ or higher quality products; and the government may benefit from increased tax revenues. Funrl" for economic developrr.en• ccm e from four basic sources : (Ddomestic savings ; ®multilateral and bilateral aiJ; @ bank loans : @foreign investment. While there has been an increased technical role for rhe multilateral agencies , there has been a decline in direct multilateral and bilateral international development assistance to the developing countries. There has also been a substantial decline in bank lending follO\v-ing the collapse of commodities prices in the early 1980s. These factors, as weU as the inability of governments in the developed world or m countries with significant domestic savings t0 muster sufficient su_ppon for increased or continuing levels of public expenditures . has caused FDI to become an increasingly important means of efficiently allocating the world's scarce re~ources. 1. 3 Dissenting Voices Secretary of State George Marshall' s outline of the ~1larshall Plan ( for the reconstruction of po t-World War 11 Europe) at Harvard University in June, 1947 , provided a view of how post-war economies could be reconstructed to a level that would surpass pre-war Levels. The P lan . which provided funds equivalent to today's $ 88 billion for the practical implementation of several of the concepts of Bretron Woods , emphasized the need for collective action and planning by the recipients . which in some respects was the blueprint for a new legal framework for ecnnomic decision-making in @Charles Oman. in New Forms of Investment in Developing Countries ( OECD 1990 ) hai- predicted tha1 new panems of international deal~making may have as great a potential impact ;,;; thP cle"elopment of the joint s.r(l('k company in rhe 19th century. See also. Salacuse. Making Global Deals (Three River:, Press. 1992). @Trade and Foreign Direct lnvestmt>nt , Report by the vVTO Secretariat ( '"WTO Investment Report") . I ( October 9 . 1996) . At page 4 of 1he report, a means of defining and mea'iuring FDl is pro0.ded. The basic definition is: ·• Foreign direct investment · ··occurs when an investor based in one counrry ( the home country> acquires an asset in another country ( the host roumry) with the inrenr to manage that asset. " @Friedman. THE WORLD IS FLAT : A Brief H ismry of the Twency First Century
most as one of the most there were several ·tion to resistance of ngress . several French shall ' emphasis on =md . within 1wo week<; the Soviet Union ' s attacked the P lan as ion standing over and pe and interfering in success of both the . em toward a legal ~rative . rule - based ear enough to make simply reactionary or ng erious economic ~n inve tment . who volume since 1997. ence with the host ,ell as on foreign ~ntal issues. Rather ed by the advocates t re. ulting from the mework originating s see the original tain that the future herent limits of a :oming years will :he concerns being ;able extension of 1g review of some decades between n of the WTO, spective on these in this review is that have had an Following this will be examined t relate to the in that decade. 27. l( 1) together with an examination of how legal issues and the rule o{ law helped shape them. 2 A roo-exclusive Chronology Any proposed chronology of events that have had an impart on foreign inn•,tmtrn Junng a f1ity year period will inevitably ·ay more about the chronicler than the hi ·torical validity of the selection. The chronology set forth in tbe appendix tO this article reflects the per ·pectives of the author . who spent several of tho. e years looking at the ubject of foreign investment from the vantage points of several years of residence in Wesr and . orth Africa in the 1960s . Egypt in the 1970_,; . and Southea t A ia in the 1990s. E vents recorded here :serve as simple historical markers ( e. g. , the term of a U. S. President) , or reflect a change of attitude toward the role of foreign inve tment by a major country ( e. g . . China in 1978). or indicate the introduction of a new institution or law (e. g .. ICSID in 1966). or highlighr tbe general theme noted for each decade ( e. g . . the adoprion of the H ickenlooper J\memlment by the U. . Congres · in 1963 in response to the wave of nationalizations and expropriations). Many other areas and events could have been included , the author did not focus on the new democracy and legal developments in Japan . nor the notion of ·· Europe'' and the new legal system being developed there. There 1s very little discussion of the significant events flowing from the early :.uccess of OPEC. which might be regarded a having led to increased lending to developing count rie , the eventual debt crisi and , thus . to the need for privatization and the current increa eel reliance on private investment for development purposes. Other markers might include such developments as advances m international intellectual property law. conventions on sales o{ goods and carriage. and cyberspace and Theodore PAR"'\ALL Foreign investment in Perspective the Road from Bretton Woods 10 Marrakesh 105 telecommunications agreements . but these and others, because of . pace limitation . are not included. What is presented m the appendix is ll Ii~, nf ... µµroxima1e1y one hundred event of a political, economic o r legal nature that have had some significance for foreign investment and the isc;ues of foreign investment law. The evems set forth demonstra1e a movement up to 1997 toward a moie law-oriented process for international capital flows . albeit with many pause and sidesteps. The movement has included of ten uncomfortable. and sometimes violent . disruptions of investor-host government relation:,hips. Skeptics wboviewed ·· internauonal law" as amorphous and ungrounded saw. in the period between Bretton Wood · to Marrakesh . the creation of a framework. or structure . for trade and investment consi ·ting of an increasingly complex network of national commercial laws and systems of legal information. a rbitration facilities . international agreements and supervisory orgamzations. These all seemed , at least in 1997 , to be affording greater reliability and predictability in international investment and trade relations. While there is a considerable overlap of events in many instances , with no single dei-ade having exclusive rights to the theme noted , the following ections present each ten-year period in terms of a few events that appear illu trative of the theme. followed by a summary of the legal issues that were especially in focus dur ing the period 2. 1 The Post-War Framework Emerges 2. l. 1 Defining Event The broad outline for economic recovery from World War TI, as well as the framework for an economic order that wouJd reduce the likelihood of nationalistic economic aggression . was provided by the group of remarkably clear-sighted and far-sighted participants in the conference held in Bretton Woods, .\few H amoshirP 1 o;:11 ... -- - • purposes , and made it· first loan to as ·ist France in 194.7. The International Monetary Fund (ll\i1F) was to addre:-s balance of payments distortions and limit for<:'.ign t:xchange lluctuauons and began its operations in 194 7; the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. also signed in 1947, was intended to reduce restrictive international trade practices . but it would take almost fifty years before the original efforts to create the International Trade Organization would finally re·ult in the World Trade Organization becoming a reality . Colonialism substantially ended during this decade , among others, India became independent in 194 7 : Egypt in 1953: Tunisia in 1956 and Ghana and Malaysia in 1957. The People· . Republic of China emerged as a strong international actor m 1949. ·while colonial powers made effort to continue the old .. status-oriented legal framework of colonial power over the colonized . these failed deci ively at Dien Ben Phu ( 1954 ) and Suez ( 1956). Al. o , in 1956 . the Soviet Union' move to put down the popular uprising in Hungary confirmed the limit of western influence on Eastern Europe. 2. 1. 2 Legal Issues With the end of the colonial period came the end of the tatus orientation between the colonizers and the colonized : flows of re ource .. capital and individuals would henceforth require more complex contractual form . and those contract wouJd in turn require a vastly improved international legal order. Issues included the continuing validity of conCiact and property right in former colonies and in countrie that had adopted new economic regimes. The legal academic world began to increase it attention co these changes. The decade also saw a dramatic increase in U. S. interest in comn;m1tw.,
106 countrie : to look at the way things were done in other countries in order to better understand one's own legal system . or in order tO stimulate positive change. This led to increased comparative legal =-~~l',u ch and the crearion of th<' Americ:u11 Journo.l of Comparative Law ( 1952) as the fir t U. periodical devoted to foreign legal issue . Many new international law courses were al o developed in this decade. preparing a new generation of U.S. lawyers t0 participate m the increasing movement toward foreign investment. 2. 2 1957 ~ l 967: Nationalizations and Expropriation 2. 2. 1 Defining Events Despite an increase of FDJ by U . S. firms from $ 25 billion in 1957 to S 56 billion in 1967® . foreign investment underwent significant transformation in this decade. Foreign investor dealt with nationalizations . renegotiation · and a variety of methods asserted by developing countrie · to rearrange relationships by which natural resources and other trategic sectors were administered. Copper m the former Belgian Congo. Chile and Zambia . sugar and financial institutions in Cuba, banking and mdustry in Egypt, and oil in Indonesia were among many of the areas that were given . pecia1 attention by national governments during this period. 2.2.2 Legal 1ssues The declining ability or wil1ingness of the industrialized countries to enforce agreements or understandings that had been reached under a simpler . more . tatus-orienred international legal order . led to a number of legal issues: if arms-length contracting was to replace tatus as the means of ordering international relationship . what would be the fora and standards for the re olution of disputes? To what extent were a country · . naturaJ re ources capable of being removed from the bargaining table by static agreement ? To what extent are countries bound to pay compensation to the former owners of nationalized assets? What new international organizations and commitments 2007. l(l) of resources should be created to facilitate the number and complexity of inrernational agreements? ·what is the appropriate response by the home government. of companies that have been aJver:.ely affected by hu.-,1 government action : These issues manifested themselves m unilateral actions such as the U. S. Congress ' adoption of the Hickenlooper Amendment tO the Foreign Assistance Act . which denied U. S. financial assistance to any country that could be deemed to have nationalized U. . -owned assets, and in multilateral arrangements such as the stgmng of the U:\' .. ~ew York Convention on Recognition and Enforcement of Arbitral Awards" ( 1958 ) . the creation of the International Developme11t Association ( 1960), the 1nternational Center for the Settlement of Investment Disputes ( lCSID. 1966 ) . U. CT AD < 1964 ) and D:'JCITRAL ( 1966) and the United _ ation' s Resolution on Permanent Sovereignty over . atural Resources (I 962). Efforts to direct legal scholarship to international issues were al o in evidence during the period , Harvard Law chool ( 1959) and the American Bar Association ( 1966) were among rhe first of many insriwtions creating journals that would specialize in international legal issues affecting investment. 2. 3 1967~1977: Foreign Investment as a Tolerated Stepch.iJd 2. 3. 1 Defining Events Following the wave of rejection of foreign investment as a mean of providing capital for positive change in developing countries and the continuing reliance on central planning and public sector expenditure in the sociali t world . the 1967 ~ 1977 period reflected a lightly more moderate tone. The earl~,.- success of OPEC also played a significant role during this decade. Flush with growing amount· of petrodollars, international banks were more open to making loans to governments for development pro;ects. Many of ® Select~ Data on U. S. Direct lnve tmcnt Abroad . 1950-76 ( U.. f)i,p,irr.mem af Commerce - February 1982). Theodore PAR.t'\ALL Foreign Invesonent in Perspective the Road from Bretton Woods 10 Marrake_h 107 these governments took joint ventures with foreign investors as good opportunities to invest recycled petrodollars in ventures that they could control. Politically. the decade experienced a wide-spread rejection of autbori ty, from the Cultural Revolution in China, to the student demonstrations in Paris . to tbe Democratic Convention held - in Chicago m 1968. Moreover. several events emphasized the continuing conflict between planned and markec economies: i. e. . the invasion of Czechoslovakia, and the U. . · s forced departure from Vietnam. Despite these policical trends. several countrie adopted laws that allowed foreign inve tment, albeit under circumscribed conditions. 2. 3. 2 Legal Issues Indonesia's first law on foreign investment m 1967 expre:e-ed the decade ' s di rru t and begrudging acceptance of foreign inve tment. Domination by foreign capital as known during the colonial period must automatically be avoi
106 2. 4 1977 ~ 1987 : A Reassessment of the Benefits of Foreign Investment 2. 4. 1 Defining Events The events of the 1977 - 1987 period reflected an rncrea~1ng reausm allouL thtc l1maauon:, of public investment as well as an increasing reliance on pnvate investment to further economic development. The decade experienced a decline of oil and commodities price!"- generally. coupled with a marked decrease in lending hy international bank __ On the negative side were the fru tration' with the lack of adequate public ·ector resource . caused at least in pan by the worldwide rece. sion of the early 1980s. On the positive side were the increased confidence in dealing with foreign investors on an arms ' length basis and familiari ty gained through international organizations and programs. These may have all contributed to an increased willingness on the part of host countries to reas ess their relationships with foreign inve. tors. In 1977. Egypt revised it· foreign investment law after conference and meetings with foreign investors , which demonstrated why the original 1974 law had not led to expected increased levels of private investment @ . Following President Sadat ' s h isroric trip to Israel and the 1978 amp David Peace Accord. Egypt was a lso a party to the finn U.S. Bilateral Investment Treaty in 1981. T he new '' BIT" went on to become an important ymbol of a count ry · s openne to foreign investment. In 1978 . China . after more than a decade of political and economic instability . announced 11s intent to speed up economic reform and . in 1979 . adopted its fi rst foreign investment law. Glasnost 0984) and Perestroika 0987) were announced by Gorbachev during the period, a was the new openness known as MDoi Moi" in Vietnam (1986). 2. 4. 2 Legal Issues Many of the foreign investment legal is:-ues of ~U01. l Theodore PAR'\'ALL Foreign lnve. onent in Perspective the Road from Brenon Woods to Marrakesh el ewhere, as well as for major infra. tructure project · that were also increasing in size and scope. A the remaining political or ideological obstacles to foreign investment were reduced. an intt:rnauonal con ·ensus appeared to form around the desirability of private tran. national capital flows as a major engine for economic developmefll . and an improved legal framework® for • uch flows : the European Union · s centralized law-making role w;is significantly enhanced by the ingle European Act ( 1987) and the ~Iaastricht Treaty ( 1993). The U .. . Canada , and Mexico created . AFTA ( 1993 ) . And after eight years. the Uruguay Round of GA TT negotiations culminated in an ambitious Final Act. signed at Marrakesh . Morocco in 1994. The Marrakesh agreement produced the long-awaited World Trade Organization ( WTO ) after a delay of almost fifty year!", together with both an expansion of membership ( 131 member!\ in 1997 with 29 states additionally requPs1ing membership ) and an expansion in scope (GATS. TRIMS. and the new Dispute Settlement Understanding) . As U.S. FDI approached a total of a lmost $ 800 billion . and international FDI increased to S 315 billion annually in 1995 . the dramatic advance of foreign investment in this decade did indeed seem to announce a ·• golden age " for private sector economic development. 2. 5. 2 Lega l fssues The legal issues addressed by the foreign investment communi ties during th t> rlecade were: the conditions of im·estmenr in China . and its acces ion to the WTO . the call from some quarters to link t rade and investment to human right ·, employment practices , and the environment. While two decades before . the principle issues relating to the sociali · t bloc were counter - trade and the impact of dealing wi th state trading countries . new and rapidly evolving legal cultures of many of our new trading partners 109 required close attention. The: expansion of technological. as well as geographic . frontier provided another set of issues : new licensing procedures for software exports . ecurity for e-mail financial transactions . and increased protection for intellectual property. The effort to develop multilateral rules for foreign investment and to negotiate the Multilateral Agreement on Investment . since failed . was though t by developed nations as a way 10 replace individual countries · inve tment laws. The practical implementation of the Marrakesh accord was yet another formidable legal issue. The need to ensure that national investment law were in conformiry with the T rade Related Investment Measures ( T RIMS) of GA TT and the need t0 give due norice of non-conforming national provisions were being addressed by host governments. Even t he mechanical application- of that agreement s remarkable advance m transparency required a massive development of legal information systems to realize its benefits. Perhaps the most significant issues of this decade resulted from the effort to introduce private investment and limited market mechanisms to centrally planned economies. >few laws and legal institutions that would be compatible with the new changes were quickly adopted while collectivization was abandoned or reduced. Deregulation policies began to change t he way governments try to manage their economies from reliance on specific administrative decrees to sy tern based on indirect intervention through laws . policies and macro--economic instruments. Deregulation of the price system. exchange rate policies . ta te enterprise self- financing or outright privatization. increa ed freedom for the private sector, and banking and t ax reforms became the goal of an impressive number of new law and decrees. However . shaping the hurriedly-adopted deregulation laws and decrees into a coherent body of law. and lflGui,dain. 11ivesriture of Stare Enterprises. an Overview of the Legal Framework ( Wodd Bank Teclmical Paper 186. 19921.
110 eff ecrive implementation of these laws. would prove to be the work of the next several decades. 3 1997 - 2007 and Beyond: Getting Back on Track? The foregoing review descri bes a number of law-related accompli hments from 1947 to 1997 in which lawyers . legal academics, and national and international public sector lawyers could justifiably take some satisfaction. The private lawyers . despite the rudimentary nature of the national and international legal frameworks that preYailed . especially during the early years of the past half-cen tury, put together transaction. that moved u. . firm · from 8 billion of FDl to almost S 800 billion. Transaction by transaction . deal by deal . capital . technology and labor were steadily allocated righ ts and obligations by score. of lawyers who attempted to provide legal arrangements with sufficiencly adequate predictability and reliability to justify their clients' commitment of resources. The legal academics . writing in an increasing number of international law journals . tried to step beyond the parochial and comfortable boundaries of their national ~ystems of positive law. They examined law and legal cultures that challenged cheri hed notions of civil and common law. a n rl worked "vith legal reform efforts to increase both the theoretical coherence and the practical value of law as an instrumen t of economic development. T hey also provided a valuable training ground for lawyers from a variety of legal systems and added to the understanding of t he nature aHu 11ee
112 ~1~ UnWJ 2007 1Jo 6 J:) 30 13 ~ l"I H U * zy; -!t~ .W Joum:il of \1acJU Lllntr>,tl) or Sc1toct :ind T..:h110lo~) ½~ta < ~rnJJ-tt:k*~~~. ~r~) Vol. 1 ~o. l June JO. 2007 3ffi ~ : <17 ~ ~ @ ,ti. $.t 1f -'f. ;ijiJdi;-.,fj--fi. ~ j ~ FL it, ~ if. ..ft. * ·~-£ -tt 1f 4'-:f ,ffL <17 @ !. * .i! ~-M. ~1~ J.\. Ii V-J >!-~_¥.] .; Y ~:It {±. -tE it ii . ~~:fftt ~ ~!!i~JiF. ~ #..*~J.t..jt_ 1f-'r ~#i, Ji7 'f ~~ if 4~;fi~4,(f.f.,, "!.. ~A. . i)t.z.4i"~..ft_*~~~~fl~~ij$.At -1t-;k. ,1'Jt_z_*~~."{4tiJ +-f-#i! (Macau Umn~rsity of Science and Technology, Macau. China) Abstract : Similarities and differences exi:;t in legislation on equal right w education in the U. . and China. Both coumrie- guarantee equal right to education. The Chine e Con·titution guarantees equal right to education. The equal protection clause of the Fourtet>J11h Amendment 10 the U.S. Com.titutiou has been interpreted by the U.S. Supreme Coun as prohibiting discrimmarion 111 che government provision of education. Both countrit-s have formulated law·s and regularions on the protection of ·pecial groups, like minoritie!>. women. children and the handicapped. The U. S. has set up a fairly comprehensive legal framework. providing government funding for education and legal remedies for the infringement of equal right to eciucation. China· s legislative framework for ensunng and implementing equal right 10 edutatton is stiU a work in progress. Ettual righ1 to education is protected through different mtchanisms in both rountrie,,. 1n China, nauonal law plar-, a dominant role while in the U. - .. federal law and state law both play a role in the federal system of government. Federal law 1 · important in guaranteeing "equal protection"' among the 50 tares. In the U.S. , economics plays a role in the failure of some cfo,advantaged individuals and groups gaming equal access to education. There are problems concemmg equal right to education in China. There is no effective mechanism to ensure sufficient government fun.ding for education. China· legi~lation on right 10 education is inadequate and ineffective in gO\•erniog the discrepancy between rural and urban areas and guaranteeing the equal access of migrauon workers· children to education. China also needs to promote the development of private education and enhance the administration and ;supervision of the education ,-;ector. Key words: education: equality: legislation: comparil'on between 1he Amenc-an and Chinese education legislation -1t1~ a 1/l, 2005-12-12, +;-tr a J,IJ, ~007-03-30. "' i!.lll.#".¼ ,½:#.#!< 1968- >. ~, *-.lHHi.:k. Jr*~&.~ ~i!-~~~-±-'Jf ~!t- Ii~. i¼~~1¾-~~ \\FfO ~;f,, el~!Hif ~ . E-mail: hk5-l64@l26. com. Tel : 853-66992566, 86-15338162565 ~ 20 i!t#.ic.901f.t\'.:-tf , 'fllill''.J~tfl«ili~~ 5l®A.flB-ni=~: C t1! 1'f ~ ~ ~ ~ • ~ ff i.; • 3: ~ m tt ff ~iIMJ~ . 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118 ~l~ ~lWI 2007 ~ fi JcJ 30 B ~ r, ~ u * ~ * * Jounl:1.1 <>I M ... ~u lJ111,cn11~· <>I Sc,encc ~ll~ Tedmol~') Vol. l >lo. l June :m. 'l.007 The Changing Face of International Law and the Challenge to the Legal Profession Herbert V. MORAIS1.1 0 . University of Malaya . Malaysia ; 2. Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau , China) Abstract , This article discus ·es some of the dramatic changes that have taken place in the field of international !aw. which has witne sed the entry of new participants or subjects . the advenr of new technologies and a proliferation of new and sophisticated international business and financial transactions. These development present unique challenges for law practice. I t is critical that la,..,'Yers everywhere need to retool thenr.;dves to address the variety of new legal issues that are increasingly arising in a transnational context so as to be able to more effectively assist their clients. The article illu trates the kinds of issues that have emerged by di cussing the work of lawyer · at the World Bank, which has one of the largest legal departments of any international organization. 1t then point. to the parallel developments in law firms and corporate legal departmen ts . which have reorganized themselve through globalization of their law practice and the establi · hmem of virtual offices to service their clients. Key words : international lawyer ; international law; world bank : globalization Herbert V. MORAis1.2 0 . Malayaj;:!¥: . . ~*W§. :2. ~rntii::k*,~r,> ffi~: it~ 7 @~;i-4ji~¥) - ~ E k.~1t.~i.rn!J JC-f-;lo~,{fl_{rfJ,m,A , -$1J--ti. ,Ur(f.J :!: JJt. f,{,Zl.lY!j-"7 ~# ~@~~~~½~~~~#.&. ~~~lrfJ~~~**~~~~r~#lrfJ~~.~~¥.i~~~lrfJ~ ~S~t•A•~~ .• Aah~ft~@~~~TlrfJ·tl:~R¥.1~9**M•lrfJ~~.~-*RL -1i"3tt:Jt "t B/J:t-f' Mik: r0VA. ~i~i!!-Jt-~fr 'F #~ {)!] ..r.tt. 1l:-r-- 7 ~A,tl: ~{rfJ ?fjf.3 ~ ~{r-J M;i! . ilt-.ff-~{t ~ ~ti!t ~ J:.Jt.-itt#:-M"- 11!l l~H:¥.·n~:itl~:k ~ 5!-#-lifi r1. ~~~~ tl: 1 ,ff **~il½J.f..-ft i&~ 'F~fr § ~&~¥.i*~•~tffl'f.,1~~ ~ *~~ ,, {i!J -f-H*~ ro, l[. ~).,Zl_,£!..ft.Ji~~l..}-j: ~~ $./' ~~JiUt. !Ulitfal: @Ii:¥.-**¼:~~* : -t!t ~,!l,H : ½~-ft l\1anuscript received May I . 2007: revised June 15. 2007. The author. Herbert V. Morais, is Visiting Tunku Abdul Rahman Professor of lmemational Law. University of 1v1alaya. He i» also Visiting Profe!'~or of Macau University of Science and Technology. Herbert v. MORAIS The Changiug Face of lnternanonal Law and the Challenge to the Legal Profei.sion 11 9 0 Introduction Fifty years ago . international law was generally untlerstood to mean the law governing re1at1on:- among ·overe1gn states. The . ubjects covered under the rubric of naditional "' international law" included such matters as rules governing treaties, recognition of states, state jurisdiction . state succession, laws of war . trade . access to and use of air . . ea and international waterways . and rules criminalizing piracy on the high seas, ·muggling, crimes against humanity . and genocide -i, . Thu·. the work of international law was largely carried out inside fo reign ministries by lawyers whose work was hardly known to the man in the Street or even to lawyers in pr ivate practice. International law was not given much primacy and relevancy in the realm of law practice and the organization of huma11 affairs. Many people . including lawyers . believed that international law was not really ·· Jaw ., in the same sense that a jurisdiction's criminal law or fami ly law was. The primary reason for this line of thinking wa that interrn1tional law was seen as unenforceable . reflecting a widely-held positivistic view of how law functions in society. The Changing Face of International Law These views have changed very dramatically over the last few decades. One reason is the expanded. more sophisticated view of law taught in law schools. Another is that international law itself has changed. lt now influences many more areas of human acti,;ty than was the ea. e two or three decades ago. A major development has been the entrance of new participanrs in the international law process . including international organizations such as the World Bank. individuals . business enterprises, financial institutions . and to a limited extent . non-governmental organizations ( such as those committed ro human rights and environmental protection ) . The content of •• international law"' has gradually been injected into a vant:ty 01 mtt:rnat1onal standards. codes of conduct. anJ_ best practices ( sometimes referred to as "soft international law'' ) designed to promote a more effective internationa l legal order for the globa l economy 2 • As a result, the rules of the game in international law ha\"e changed in ways that would not have been anricipateJations . we will find hundred· of international treaties t hat have emerged . mce the Second World War dealing with a wide variety of new subjects . such as the protection of human rights- including political . economic. ~ocial and cultural rights - and the protection of the environment. We will also find agreements to advance the rights of women . children and indigenous peoples and tribe . agreements to prohibit human trafficking and drug t rafficking . agreements to combat corruption . money laundering ancl rerrorism, agreements de. igned to protect investments , agreements to promote world trade in serYice · as well as goods . agreements to protect intellectual property rights , and agreements to safeguar d culiural heritage. Globalization has also redefined relations among nation states . global markets . and ind,";duals. A Thomas Friedman points out . globalization has it own defining technologies : computerization . miniaturization . digitization , atellite communications . fiber optics and cyberspace . and the fmernet . which reinforct globalization • defining perspective of integration. All these developments have dramatically changed the way we live , the way we do business . the way we move money and people . and the way that profes ·ionals . including lawyers . service clientsC:•~ .
120 2 The Explosive Growth of International Institutions As noted, one remarkable phenomenon io the evolution of international law has been the emergence of several new international organizations with mandate to promote economic . financial and social development such as the World Bank and the regional multilateral de\·elopmem hanks, the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization. The Specialized Agencies under the United _ ations Charter such as the Food and Agriculture Organizarion. the World H ealth Organization. the International Labor Organization . and the United >!ation Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization are also doing imp0rtant work in their fields. All of these organization. have legal departments with internationally-trained lawyers to carry out a variety of legal responsibilities. \Ve have also witnessed the establishment m recent years of a number of international tribunals to adjudicate di$putes or cr imes under national or international law. The earlieM of these were the European Court of Human Rights and the Inter-. .\merican Coun of Human Rights. Then came such specialized tribunals as the Law of the Sea Tribunal. lore recently. we have seen the establishment of the International Criminal Court and several other ad hoe war crime· tribunals . and the World Trade Organization · s Appellate Tribunal to re ·olve trade disputes. 3 Are Lawyers Today Equipped to Deal With _ ew International Responsibilities? The net effect of these important recent development is that lawyers everywhere are being increasingly thrust into the global arena and called upon to perform a wide range of legal services for their clients. Lawyers in Shanghai, Tokyo . , ew Delhi, :'\airobi , Cairo. Buenos Aire . and elsewhere are being summoned on a daily basis to 200,. l
122 borrowing governments. These roles require the Bank's lawyers to develop a sound under. tanding of different legal systems ( both in common law and civil law juri ·dictions) and occasionally to work ,..,7th lawyer. m developing and tran ·itton countries in finding practical and ensible solutions. About two-thirds of the resource that are lent to developing and transition countries come from borrowings by the World Bank in the international capital markets. Thus . the \Vorld Bank acts a a financial intermediary for many of its poorer member countries . which are unable to acce s such markets due to their low credit ratings. This ex1:ensive resource mobilization work involves lawyers in the preparation, n~gmiation ands finalization of bond documents and compliance with securities regulations m various national juri diction·. ancl in currency and interest rate waps. Another important part of the work of World Bank lawyers involves advising and assisting member countries on legal reforms needed to promote good public and corporate governance , to promote transparency and accountability of public officials . to combat corruption and money laundering, and generally to establish sound corporate and banking laws to support the economy. More recently . the Wor ld Bank has also become increasingly engaged in promoting judicial reforms guided by the belief that an independent and competent judiciary to resolve dispute is an es·ential ingredient to promote inward investment and give confidence to investors. World Bank lawyers are thus engaged in working m close partnership with member countrie to promote new laws 01 revise existing law. and to implement reforms in court systems and procedures and the training of judge . The World Bank' s Articles of Agreement prohibit it from interfering in the political affairs of its member countries and specifically dir~ct that the 2007. l( lJ Bank shall be guided in all its decision solely by economic considerations. Legal and judicial reforms touch on the raw political nerves of states. Thus, this is an exuemelv ~en<:.i : ·e ,•rea of work and World Bank lawyer· have to be careful not to be seen as intruding into the sovereign prerogative of promulgating laws or interfering with the role of national parliaments. The role of the World Bank lawyer is largely advi ory and is inten
121 gradually discovering that many· of the problems presented by their clients have to be resolved by reference to one or more foreign legal system·. imilarly . lawyer.- engaged in large corporate or financial llugauon are undrng rhat their ca:;e frequently involve events . evidence and parties from foreign countries . and in several cases may al o require the institution of parallel proceedings in the court of these other countries. A - noted earlier . the estaLfo,hmenr of several new international rribunals and rhe proliferation of arbitration on transnational business contracts have also placed new demands on lawyers hired to represent their clients before these tribunals. Thus. over the past ten to fifteen yi>iirs . many of the leading law firm in London . Paris and '>?ew York have either merged or established strong partnerships or looser alliances with foreign law firms so as to be able to more effectively service their clients operating under different legal systems in variou part of the world. 1n addition . tbe.~e law firms have increasingly hired many foreign lawyers and offered partnerships to many of them. Thu , it is no longer uncommon to find Chinese, Japanese . Indian and Arab lawyers working in London, Paris or >iew York law firms. As a result . many of these firms now have thousands of lawyers working in their worldwide nerwork of offices. Another important feature of the newly retooled international law firms is that . with the advances of ni>w information technology and the Internet. they have installed networking capabilities between and among their various office. to facilitate the sharing of legal information. legal expertise and legal documents and precedents among their lawyers . thereby creating a new generation of .. virtual law offices. " Similar transformations have occurred in corporate legal departments worldwide. especially m multinational corporations. which have l.UIJ7 . 1\ l) establi hed headquaner or affiliate office· m different jurisdictions around the world. They too have found it necessary to hire locally-trained lawyers to assist them in negotiating tran actions m 1he1r home coumnes. where language skills and an understanding of local cultural practices is critical to successfully concluding business t ransactions. One other phenomenon that is worth noting is that several of the major international accounting firms have in recent years decided to establi h large in-house legal capabilitie , partly to enable them to more effectively service tbeir clients bur also to capture ome of the lucrative benefit. of fa t-growing global busine ·s venture . The inclusion of legal department· and con ulting arms within accounting firms ha. also raised some conflict-of-inrerest issues for these fi rms because. in light of the Enron and WorldCom scandals , regulator · ha,·e shown increasing concern over whether there are adequate . afeguards to ensure a clear separation between the financial and legal advisory roles. Some of the accounting firm have . a~ a result. shed or separated their consulting practice . References :1: OTO:-:. :ELLO P. fmema1ional law. 2nd ed. London: Stevens 6. Sons Ltd. 1970. (2] MORAi H V. Th<> q,m,1 for ,memanonal standards: global gowmenre v:-.. ~o,~~my. 50 Kansas Law Review. 2002: 'i79. :1J HIGGINS R Problems and proce:,,, mtcmnricn.al law and how we use 11. Oxford: Clarendon Pres..~ Oxford U111versi1y Pre,;~. 199-1. :,= FRfED:\iA\.. T L. The Lexu~ and the olive iree, undcrl *~#*~~±-~r~~JM~*ffim*tt~ 2 2006-10-11 < l1 mJ.'.f'.'iii~lW-Z.~89--t-fill~ ~~) * !!M0tWc ± . ;J;:fltt/~!¥tU~~tHi 3 2006-l 0-18 · ~ f.,c ~1tWifit~ jtjj ./¥~ a *g;f4*~1'%± -~~ft**~IHt~ 8 2006· l l-22 « 1: ~a s:p liJJ ;f4~ ~f;'f ± , itBll ~~Jt~* ~{{{tt4f 10 2006-12-06 <~*m~*~~--~y»*ffiITTfil> s:rmfll-*~Eit± ,*~'1~!j!~lt~-~tdf 11 2006-12-13 < ~ ~#-!¾!~A1:> s:r li!ll#1j!W£~±, ~~#JJ11!..ft!*~11ilttt~ 12 2007--01-24 = +-ttttca~f,J-tt ~~f;}~~Wc± ,#JJJ[~;k~~ffi$tt~ 13 2007-01-3] -":1!1f~? a#ttlHfi! ~~i:r*m~~~±-~ff~f,W*~~Mtt~ 1-1 2007-02·07 -;k§~~Affi~~a
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Fig. 26 Elements across tissue boundary Fig. 28 The final tetrahedral mesh (a) Fat + Muscle + Bone (b) Muscle+ Bone (c) Bone (d) Shading of the above meshes Fig. 29 Tetrahedral mesh for the knee artbroscopy simulation Jil~Rl~~fl*rl~,~Mr~Jf:Mt: ]t p53 mRNA ~jl~f3fl 622 518 518 415 415 c I .Q E 311 311 :, :, C: C: ~ 'ii c.> 0 207 207 103 103 o ~ 64 96 m ~ m 234 256 DNA content 0 ~ 64 96 128 160 192 234 256 DNA contenl 518 518 415 415 2 z E 311 E 311 :, :, C <: Q .; 0 0 207 207 103 103 O 32 64 96 128 160 192 234 256 D~content 0 32 64 96 128 160 192 234 256 DNA oon!anl
( C) Jl[:g1DiJ!l!;U! ,. ,. '. \. ·' . ( a ) t:ng~~'§lliU~~M (b) 11\faJ'lllEU~fflmUlii ~iilHI 111 2 ~ i\f ~~Jt {lfilljj ~1i (b) ®JlJJM1iP'11f1l (c) Jll:JljjM~P'J~@,$,t (d) ~Jljj~1§17'J~$~ ~ 3 Jt~~~tiJlt@JljjM~~tt ~~~~@" Editorial Board ~~~a=~tic!W: Chairman of Editorial Board: Xu Ao Ao I ail: Js;f~-~la!:1# Chief Editors: Tang Ze heng, David N. Smilh ~~: ~~1u1*~ -~3¥- ,r~;t;~ Jtx!l J:tI'l1L,£~ ,11t~• -*J'lifi'., ~iil-'JL,,!f:lfi:11!!.,~JU(L~ff ,*a'lll' -~~'t Editorial Board Memlwr,;: Chen 'ai Chi, Tang Hung Lian, Xiang Ping, Yen Chi Hong, Leong ~tan Wai, Chan Lai Kow, Lan Hai Lin, Chan Ming Wai, Lee Chuen Kwun, Li Xiao Ping, Qi Dong Xu, Cheng Hsing Ti, Shin Wei, Li Jia Zeng, Chen Song heng
$-f(. ~J 2007 ~ 6 JJ .ftlJ ~J ~ · .fi ~ - .IV) 2007 -ff. 6 JJ 111111i JOURNAL OF MACAU UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Semlannual, Started In June 2007 Vol.1 No.I June 2007 ISSN 1994-4926 II 1111111 9 771994 49200 3