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(%)18.917.216.516.517.818.818.317.215.415.712.110.713.517.617.32.22.92.43.26.20.70.70.90.82.112.011.410.510.810.37.612.414.812.87.216.315.214.014.114.911.411.110.18.78.5%2003-2006200212.1%200617.3%200212.5200630.3142.4%2002-20053%20066.2%

2002-200520062.1%2006200212.0%200610.3%200212.4200618.0200216.3%200414.0%200614.9%200211.4%20068.5%200211.7200614.826.5%2002-200617.6%10.7%6.2%2.2%2.1%0.7%14.8%7.2%200020049.3%7.9%3.4%3.2%2000-2004200512

2(%)20042004200420052004200420042004200610.913.311.512.95.414.712.111.417.86.03.13.70.6-2.68.8--5.94.24.92.43.53.84.829.415.76.610.57.510.013.510.724.19.317.31.61.30.22.5-3.63.13.36.21.51.80.92.02.31.95.41.32.116.014.318.112.519.019.011.429.310.31.22.62.14.56.20.42.76.07.213.216.020.011.615.110.717.16.914.937.132.931.141.021.632.610.43.18.5%2006200512NationalAccountsofOECDCountries:GeneralGovernmentAccounts,2006.

200617.8%(200414.7%)(20045.4%)200615.7%(200429.4%)17.3%(200424.1%)20066.2%20062002200520067.2%20062.1%(20045.4%)(20042.3%)2004(0.9%)200614.9%200610.3%(200429.3%)20068.5%(20043.1%)(200541.0%)2006

2004200650%20082008200711

2006

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(49%3,0009,99931%10,00019,999)2006199247.4%2.8%1992199819992006(1)12003-2005200610,00011992129.91993138.1199487.11199594.781996100.141997104.251998104.091999100.99200099.562001101.56200299.23200397.92200499.05

2003-20072008228%22%11%256.91%20.43%2005103.52006109.451992-1993198810198991994-199719957199661998-200019991020009200120047200561992-200612003-2007

2(20082)20082

GDP(1)——GDP(2)(3)(Built-ininflation)/(price/wagespiral)Ho,N.W.,“CurrencySubstitutionandtheCaseofMacau”,inMonetaryAuthorityofMacauQuarterlyBulletin,April2003.

1.2004110,00036,50017.2%2007106,80034.1%25,00016,9005.4%2006280.63200335.76%()200316,1542007414,819(3)32003-20072003-20072.2006393.092002585.78200747,92620034,80165%(4)

20084110.33(importedinflation)42003-20074

3.2004210,8812007214,4915%7,7004,9765%(5)46%54%/

51.20083

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1.Ho,N.W.,“CurrencySubstitutionandtheCaseofMacau”,inMonetaryAuthorityofMacauQuarterlyBulletin,April2003.2.2006661-643.20063381-884.()2007338-425.2008326A11

2007GDP27.3%200617%10.3200428.4%(2002)2007GDP1,279.8()2.8GDPGDP()()()GDPGDPGDPGDP2007554.31,093.5GDP85.4%

GDP200110.6%200725.8%GDP200151.3%200730.2%GDP()200727.3GDP61.8%GDP16.922.9%GDP6.223.184.7%GDP1GDPGDP(%)200151.325.810.6-14.638.192.4200248.420.410.39.940.665.3200344.314.913.534.141.749.9200437.112.014.417.747.768.9200537.643.721.5124.940.2-68.7200634.315.026.656.238.326.9200730.215.225.822.943.361.8

GDP200125.8%200715.2%GDPGDP200138.9%200722.8%12.4%7.4%GDP62.0%62.5%58.9%70.9%56.8%58.5%37.9%GDP79.2%80.4%72.2%86.5%74.5%67.3%51.8%30.2%GDPGDPGDP200723GDP125,30367,160GDPhttp://www.stats.gov.cnGDP212007121220071212

(GrossNationalProducts,GNP)GDPGNP()GNPGDP(/)GDPGNPGNPGDPGDPGNPGDPGNPGDPGDPGDPGNP2006519.41,6984585.32006197.4GDP17.3%4.5GNPGNPGDP192.92006GNPGDP2007

GNPGDPGDPGNPGDPGNPGDPGNP1968GDPGDPGDPGDPGDPGDPGDPGDPGDPGDP

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GDPGDPGDPGDP(GrossNationalHappiness,GNH)GNHGNHGNHGDP70020(MDP)GNHGDP

2007230,000320,57220081.0317.81

2001200172007226.83(2)200838.51200197.04103.00803.13505.37709.361,163.98479.426.1118410.20200297.05103.00803.28509.82841.641,288.10579.006.7818454.70200396.62103.00799.69618.311,004.131,422.69643.957.4744598.69200496.77103.00800.95665.431,090.571,541.55706.657.8012624.70200598.97103.00798.71688.28945.551,375.98607.436.7862584.622006102.44103.00800.59689.751,051.941,570.20654.856.7284632.912007109.99103.00803.41820.771,184.111,605.01714.817.1621706.32

200430020071,536.082200119,170.45.918,472.9-9.43,345.11.415,127.9-11.4-697.4-130.6200220,323.4618,925.42.44,151.524.114,773.9-2.3-1,398-100.5200322,097.28.720,700.19.44,439.16.916,26110.1-1,397.10.1200427,90426.322,561.195,238.31817,322.86.5-5,342.9-282.4200531,340.312.319,823.3-12.15,460.44.214,363-17.1-11,517-115.6200636,527.316.620,461.33.26,088.411.514,372.90.1-16,06639.5200743,113.91820,430.6-0.26,914.913.613,515.7-6-22,683.3-41.2

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2004-200620072001(5)2005200818.30%200829.47%4()200136,290.910,41328.69%8,804.31,198.2585.13.25%200234,330.310,45830.46%7,413.71,166.9906.62.75%200333,847.510,63131.41%4,982.2678966.32.50%200436,715.411,663.131.77%1,541.3171.91,393.43.75%200544,714.113,635.430.49%984.4199.330425.75%200650,670.514,841.529.29%677.8175.44,047.66.75%200772,055.821,511.629.85%625.339.34,145.75.75%

2008()52001-20072001102.06-1.99101.56-1.41102.46-2.07200299.36-2.6499.23-2.2999.6-2.8200397.81-1.5697.92-1.3297.96-1.64200498.770.9899.051.1598.920.982005103.114.4103.54.5103.074.22006108.425.15109.455.75108.154.932007114.465.57115.935.92114.095.49()200610,578200713,649200840%

2008

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0.5199765,22110,6303.24,0804.10199875,0509,7404.63,9650.56199984,9209,2206.33,899-2.98200094,8229,4786.83,806-1.412001104,6589,5426.43,781-1.412002114,67210,4226.33,826-2.292003124,80111,90263,856-1.322004135,16715,1324.94,1031.152005145,77316,2684.14,3274.502006156,70118,9593.84,5355.75

()0.52570.84660.88770.680112k123456789101112131415X03.504.074.484.834.915.225.054.924.824.664.674.805.175.776.70X18.219.139.8110.6410.6010.639.749.229.489.5410.4211.9015.1316.2718.96X22.202.102.503.604.303.204.606.306.806.406.306.004.904.103.80X32.833.123.413.653.974.083.973.903.813.783.833.864.104.334.53X410.239.299.1811.788.647.083.540.001.571.570.691.664.137.488.7321=0.53=12.2600=0.27003k1234567891011121314154.715.065.335.815.695.414.694.304.664.885.757.109.9610.5012.261.301.971.981.230.612.020.451.381.981.741.631.200.271.672.900.670.951.071.180.941.141.081.021.010.880.840.941.071.442.176.735.224.706.953.731.861.514.923.253.093.983.141.041.712.03

=0.50.66420.94740.96490.8455(=0.9263)GDP(=0.5950)GDP40.52570.66420.595040.84660.94740.897020.88770.96490.926310.68010.84550.762834GDP

GDP4GM(0,N)GM(0,4)GM(0,N)GM(1,N)NGM(0,N)

1556m=2,3,4…,Nk13.508.212.22.8310.2324.079.132.13.129.2934.489.812.53.419.1844.8310.643.63.6511.7854.9110.64.33.978.6465.2210.633.24.087.0875.059.744.63.973.5484.929.226.33.90094.829.486.83.811.57104.669.546.43.781.5751

6k13.508.212.202.8310.2327.5717.344.305.9519.52312.0527.156.809.3628.70416.8837.7910.4013.0140.48521.7948.3914.7016.9849.12627.0159.0217.9021.0656.20732.0668.7622.5025.0359.74836.9877.9828.8028.9359.74941.8087.4635.6032.7461.311046.4697.0042.0036.5262.881151.13107.4248.3040.3563.571255.93119.3254.3044.2165.231361.10134.4559.2048.3169.361466.87150.7263.3052.6476.841573.57169.6867.1057.1785.57114.6710.426.33.830.69124.8011.96.03.861.66135.1715.134.94.104.13145.7716.274.14.337.48156.7018.963.84.538.73

XY7GDPGDP7GDP0.011540.279621.792910.13933

1992-19971998-200681992-199791998-200681992-1997199219931994199519961997k123456X03,4994,0674,4764,8304,9145,221X12,5092,9263,1113,2103,0823,260X25,5496,8987,8709,2589,67210,105X33,7754,3934,7565,1084,8555,228X43,4433,9044,1264,5204,6604,841X54,1064,6275,1565,7915,8516,218X64,4835,2895,1955,7045,4475,809X74,8885,5295,8946,4296,8387,323

()10111992-199791997-2006199819992000200120022003200420052006k123456789X05,0504,9204,8224,6584,6724,8015,1675,7736,701X13,0802,9212,9602,7582,7582,8342,9833,1013,140X210,27711,72611,6319,95512,64811,01011,54612,96913,417X35,0074,6604,3514,3004,1454,5934,9675,9227,521X44,9804,7114,5334,4454,4304,3554,5504,8885,576X54,3414,4434,0994,0054,0544,0744,2724,4684,885X65,7865,6755,6495,6305,8515,8025,9586,4556,924X77,7567,5497,7267,6967,9238,5888,1598,6918,825X84,2694,3853,9573,8233,7313,7003,7124,1984,675X912,72613,76713,74213,80513,74514,01913,89514,52114,793X106,4846,4946,1566,1875,9656,4667,0807,8379,537

101992-19970.62870.83370.731250.41000.40510.407670.92750.97950.953510.91060.97450.942620.76000.91600.838030.75470.91250.833640.60120.81370.70756111998-20060.68430.87230.778370.42060.53630.478590.94240.98380.963110.92240.97710.949820.85150.95300.90234

1998-2006111998-2006GM(0,N)GM(0,10)0.86260.95800.910330.61920.82750.723480.81610.93890.877550.34960.20140.2755100.73640.90250.81956

GM(0,N)12b6=2.2349b5=1.6871b9=1.341512b10.43298b20.30159b30.44207b41.31924b51.68712b62.23491b70.50406b80.005010b91.34153b100.79775

2006200613132006()X112,349.08,730.58,018.56,541.54,921.53,109.04,932.03,634.53,567.5X249,376.026,297.521,584.513,048.07,715.0—16,599.018,896.09,309.0X323,335.510,376.511,085.57,593.05,127.5—6,526.57,964.03,946.5X411,431.512,884.08,992.56,346.55,977.54,320.07,201.06,799.54,990.5X515,915.513,015.010,431.05,703.05,698.55,581.06,240.06,081.04,569.5

141,4310.54%17,0229,42823,48460,83654,7691,43127,85525,32244,907142006X627,491.522,365.020,539.08,304.511,411.5—8,339.09,859.06,247.5X736,595.024,539.014,278.09,231.07,581.0—9,917.09,695.05,767.0X836,599.523,298.015,533.08,556.07,581.03,204.58,011.08,809.08,257.5X952,326.527,179.015,835.013,703.07,715.08,216.510,690.06,871.05,965.5X0a11,431.58,730.58,018.55,703.04,921.5—4,932.03,634.53,567.5X0b52,326.527,179.021,584.513,703.011,411.5—16,599.018,896.09,309.0

X0aX0a15444150.994710.745290.929040.959920.951430.837250.830770.832860.78558

1.MATLAB20072.200593.19874.ZafarShaheed,“MinimumWagesandLowPay:AnILOPerspective,”InternationalJournalofManpower,Vol.15,No.2,1994.5.BharatiBasu,“MinimumWage,InternationalMigrationandTheirEffectsonWelfare,”Interna-tionalEconomicJournal,Vol.9,No.2,1995.

20022006575.22007838.4745.8%TNSConsultant20021808200713,26720029.12004106%(1)TNSConsultantWorldCountOfGamingMachines2006,August2006.

200720078285,0001290020022200621200735.94200720021820020.7%20063.8%20074.3%1(%)2002808-20038140.720042,254176.920053,42151.820066,54691.3200713,267102.71

22002-200720022312003236200464020051,25020062,05320073,594AristocratTechnologies200641%200750%IGT200620%200715-18%Stargames20067-10%Aristocrat2

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InterblockLTGamesPacificNetGamesStargames,AruzeInterblockLTGames20(1)2020065250TSTTechnicalSystemsTestingPty.Ltd.20064LTCapitalLimitedLTCapitalLimitedRothCapitalPartners,IndustryNote,4thApril2007.

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(CityofDreams)MGM1,200200723AlanMacCharlesandSimonOaten,“Macau’sGreatGamble,”10thSeptember2007.

201018,000200373%AristocratTechnologiesIGTStargames2005ShuffleMaster

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1.(200512202007625200771)2.DevelopmentofHigherEducationinthe21stCentury20011103.[]200154.5.200516.MSAR20041017-18()7.200748.21-239.2007510.20077811.2007712.20077813.20077814.2007715.20077816.2006817.200710200765-6()18.10

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90FernandoHenriqueCardoso1995-2002LuizInacioLuladaSilva1999301200294

1994-19996.21994RealPlan11983-2002InstitutoBrasileirodeGeografiaeEstadistica,IBGEHoge,JamesF.,“FulfillingBrazil’sPromise:AConversationwithPresidentCardoso,”inForeignAffairs,Vol.74,1995,pp.62-75.PetrasandVeltmeyer,BrasildeCardoso:ADesapropriaçãodoPais,Petrópolis,RJ:Vozes,pp.56-57.“UmdosmaioreserrorcometidosporLulaepeloPT,em1994…foisubestimargorsseiramentetoimpactosocialepoliticodahiperinflaçãoeoplanodeCardosoparaestabilizarovalordoReal.”EduardoGraeffhttp://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/fhc.htm,November1,2006.

11987(PlanoCruzado)1988(PlanoBresser)1989PlanoVerão)19911992CollorPlan)19941994199919991999GDP-0.21%-0.65%-0.41%1999GDP0.79%20002001GDP4%200120012%8GDP21993FernandoHenriqueCardoso,SeteAnosdoReal:Estabilidade,CrescimentoeDesenvolvimentoNacional,Brasilia:PrêsidenciadaRepública,2001,p.19.FernandoHenriqueCardoso,MensagemaoCongressoNacional,Brasília:PresidênciadaRepública,2002,p.vii.http://www.planalto.gov.br/publica.htm,December10,2006.IBGEhttp://www.ibge.net/home/estatistica/economia/contasnacionais/tabela5.shtm,December10,2006.

19981998199921991-2001GDP3019992001-2002

1999819941995-19982003166

2,00019975302,20019976001995-199920019981999331990-2002ForeignTradeSecretariat,SECEXMinistryforDevelopment,IndustryandForeignTrade,MDIC1%2%GDP6%26%

41991Fleischer10399%1,039%255%Fleischer,David,“WeeklyReport,10July-16July,2004,”inBrazilFocus,2004,pp.23-27.4

519951996228

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1996854355%71.417.8323.8251.7626.6515020021312003234

2005174

19993199719992002523GDP4.06%GDP0.79%2005301

199542“AnInterviewwithFernandoHenriqueCardoso,”InterviewedbySaraRegineHassettandChristineWeydig,inJournalofInternationalAffairs,Vol.58,No.2,Spring2005,p.215.

30-170%8.715.393%20%552005301

199855Draibe,Sônia,“SocialPoliciesintheNineties,”emBauman,2002,pp.89-131.19961,00019981,000199810.49%GDP42.3%15.2%22.1%4.7%

SôniaDraibe)19951998199810FernandoHenriqueCardoso,MensagemaoCongressoNacional,Brasília:PresidênciadaRepública,2002,p.45.SôniaDraibe,“SocialPoliciesintheNineties,”emBauman,2002,pp.89-131.

GNP5.2%SôniaDraibe,“SocialPoliciesintheNineties,”emBauman,2002,pp.89-131.

FDI—FDI201979-200586.5%9%4%FDI1991FDIFDI40%FDI10%1992(2006)http://www.fdi.gov.cn

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*12005199920022005%%*%**2,995.54100.004,387.25100.006,125.11100.0002,567.2885.703,774.1586.030.335,284.5786.280.25127.154.24178.914.08-0.16261.714.270.19121.094.04169.903.87-0.17226.793.70-0.1761.182.0482.501.88-0.16104.301.70-0.18128.004.27207.724.730.46313.065.110.38181.386.06293.646.690.63529.328.641.95251.808.41369.048.410.00553.949.040.63373.0512.45608.3513.871.42898.4814.670.8095.753.20164.753.760.56323.975.291.53300.7810.04412.679.41-0.63478.517.81-1.60869.1129.011214.5827.68-1.331516.5724.76-2.9257.991.9472.091.64-0.3077.931.27-0.37262.558.76389.598.880.12562.969.190.3133.631.1243.600.99-0.1354.270.89-0.1025.850.8635.040.80-0.0642.190.69-0.1113.010.4319.710.450.0223.730.39-0.0637.531.2551.791.18-0.0766.591.09-0.0927.160.9137.550.86-0.0550.890.83-0.0324.860.8341.910.960.1388.801.450.4954.861.8390.452.060.23131.112.140.0845.651.5269.541.590.07105.371.720.13

5342080220801983-19901991-200156.06%41.07%13.28%25.46%165.735.53223.515.09-0.44277.584.53-0.565.350.189.250.210.0316.200.260.051.110.041.670.040.002.940.050.0127.580.9237.580.86-0.0644.210.72-0.143.940.135.920.130.006.710.11-0.0220.050.6730.610.700.0334.340.56-0.1427.420.9239.560.90-0.0257.000.930.033.970.134.890.11-0.026.310.10-0.018.420.2811.460.26-0.0215.450.25-0.0164.182.1477.441.77-0.3788.341.44-0.330.200.011.030.020.011.330.020.000.000.000.000.000.000.010.000.003.510.124.090.09-0.034.730.08-0.0120032006*2002FDI-1999FDI**2005FDI-2002FDI

2002200535.51%1983-199033.04%200564.80%2%)1983-19901991-2001200220032004200520.7621.0323.3225.5631.4829.2913.2825.4633.4239.6934.6935.5156.0641.0730.6921.2720.4124.611979-199119921996-2006)2003-2006)http://www.fdi.gov.cn)70%1992199371.03%200585.30%209020032005214.235.5%199125.2123.620.5%199123.42

1991-20059021992-20051996-2006198496.73%73.42%1.19%2.08%2005535.5888.78%19.413.22%200186%20018.54%200411.02%20058.00%20015.40%20053.22%

2.183331998-2005FDI1998199920002001200220032004200584.9285.3686.6286.0686.7084.8385.9388.789.529.138.838.549.5010.9011.028.005.565.514.555.403.803.222.883.222006http://www.fdi.gov.cn31983-2005FDI%)1979-199119921996-20062003-2006http://www.fdi.gov.cnFDI—

GG(i=1,2,3,…,n)TinTnG100G419852005198551.9200534.31992199235%199241979-199119921996-2006

2003-2006http://www.fdi.gov.cn

—FDIFDIFDI—1.Chakrabarti,Avik.,“ATheoryoftheSpatialDistributionofForeignDirectInvestment,”InternationalReviewofEconomicsandFinance,Vol.12,2003,pp.149-169.2.Coughlin,C.andSegevE.,“ForeignDirectInvestmentinChina:ASpatialEconometricStudy,”TheWorld

Economy,Vol.23,2000.3.Dunning,J.H.,DeterminantsofForeignDirectInvestment:GlobalizationInducedChangesandtheRoleofFDIPolicies,London:TheEconomistIntelligenceUnit,2002.4.Fujita,M.andHu,Dapeng,“RegionalDisparityinChina,1985-1994:TheEffectsofGlobalizationandEconomicLiberalization,”AnnalsofRegionalScience,Vol.35,2001.5.He,C.,“InformationCosts,AgglomerationEconomiesandtheLocationofForeignDirectInvestmentinChina,”RegionalStudies,Vol.36,2002.6.LuMaxandWangEnru,“ForgingAheadandFallingBehind:ChangingRegionalInequalitiesinPost-reformChina,”GrowthandChange,Vol.33,2002.7.Mei,W.,“RelocationandAgglomerationofChineseIndustry,”JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,Vol.73,No.1,2004.8.Ng,L.F.Y.andTuan,C.,“LocationDecisionsofManufacturingFDIinChina:ImplicationsofChina’sWTOAccession,”JournalofAsianEconomics,Vol.14,No.1,2003.9.200510.2004211.200512.2000213.FDI2004614.2004415.FDI()2002316.200217.2002418.2001319.20051020.20054

(1)19601980

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(1)(2)20043

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21200216519911995373-3741995606608609

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