引言：

Population and Development in Macau：An Introduction

Richard Louis Edmonds(Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, University of Macau and Department of Geography, School of Oriental and African Studies University of London)

　　Macau was the first port on the China coast to have a substantial European population, and its historical importance in the early transmission of culture be-tween east and west is well known. Although small, Macau still has a unique rôle to play in the East Asian region, especially when considered in terms of its links to Portugal. The Lusitanian connection has led to wider Western involvement in Macau's economy and society than is the case in most of East Asia. Macau has also functioned as a major point of contact in the Chinese diaspora during the past three centuries. Economically, by 1990 the per capita Gross Domestic Product in Macau was nearly double that of Portugal and roughly twenty times that of the People's Republic.
　　This economic development has taken place in a tiny enclave with one of the greatest population densities of any polity in the world and with no mineral re-sources to speak of. The territory has a population density of approximately 20,366 persons per square kilometre with the highly urbanised Macau peninsula's den-sity close to 49,645 persons per square kilometre. The islands of Taipa and Coloane, which remained sparsely populated and largely undeveloped until the 1970s, are currently undergoing rapid population growth and a construction boom. In par-ticular, much of Taipa will be urbanised by 1999. A number of major tourist and heavy industry projects have also been completed on Coloane, and it is already impossible to describe any part of Macau as rural.
　　In order to introduce recent research on the varied aspects of social and eco-nomic problems which the territory faces, a "Symposium on Population and De-velopment in Macau" was organised by the University of Macau and the Macau Foundation. The topics were wide-ranging. In some cases the papers were more representative of research being done in Macau than research about Macau per se, and some were more concerned with population and development issues in other parts of Asia. However, from these varied contributions, several themes emerged around which sessions were organised.
　　Population growth and urbanisation is the main concern of a large number of the papers found in this volume. Many of the population-urban papers cover is-sues in neighbouring territories (CHAO, JIANG Leiwen, LI, SKELDON, and ZHU), whereas others concentrate primarily on Macau (TANG, TAYLOR, WANG-BASÍLIO-CHAN, Wu Shuosi, YANG, YUAN, and ZHONG). In 1980 Macau introduced migration con-trols which significantly slowed the flow of Chinese immigrants (YUAN). By 1988 the Macau Government decided to allow local industrialists to import workers from China due to a labour shortage. There are also a great number of illegal im-migrants working in Macau. Immigration has caused resentment amongst the local resident population as it has led to reduced wages and social problems. While con-trol of illegal immigrants presents a challenge to the local security forces, their pres-ence is also a source of inexpensive labour and potential entrepreneurial talent.
　　Although parts of the Macau peninsula can be described as having had an urban character for centuries, the increasing population density of the Macau Pe-ninsula and rapid urbanisation of the islands has led to new problems in recent years. In order to alleviate population and land use pressure on the peninsula, the Nobre de Carvalho Bridge linking the Macau Peninsula and Taipa was completed in 1974. Since then a considerable number of new infrastructural projects have been started on the Macau Peninsula and the islands, including reclamation plans for housing and industry, the port and oil terminal at Ká-Hó on Coloane, a new ferry passenger terminal, the construction of a second Macau-Taipa Bridge, and an airport. In late 1993 the reclamation of virtually the whole area between Taipa and Coloane began. A railway and new motorway links to Guangzhou are virtu-ally assured, and there has been talk of some sort of motorway bridge across the Zhu (Pearl) River Delta linking Macau and Zhuhai to the Shenzhen and Hong Kong area.
　　However, recent economic growth has led to increased environmental degra-dation. Rapid development has put the remaining natural flora and fauna under severe threat. Although water purification facilities are excellent, the lack of wastewater treatment facilities lead to water pollution. A wastewater treatment plant and sewer construction are now under way (WANG-BASÍLIO-CHAN), and a solid waste incineration centre completed on Taipa in late 1992 is predicted to have enough capacity for the territory up to AD 2010.
　　Preservation of historic buildings has been identified as having tourist value since the mid-1970s. Conservation programmes for monuments are being planned and a draft environmental law has been passed. However, preservation of zones has been slow to develop, there are problems with the planning process even on newly reclaimed land (TAYLOR), and the prospect of a territory with a blighted urban landscape and virtually no green areas is ever more likely as the charm of old Macau gives way to prefabricated modernity.
　　Current reclamation projects will enlarge the size of Macau from just about 18 sq. km. to over 28 sq. km. shortly after 1999. However, despite signs that the natural birth rate is decreasing, both in Macau (ZHONG) and in Guangdong (JIANG Leiwen, ZHU), Macau's geographical growth will not be enough to allow the terri-tory to undergo the rapid economic expansion that many desire, and with a total population increase to as much as 480 000 by 1999 (Wu Shuosi, YANG) the overall population density would remain high at about 17 persons per square metre, so that calls for continued vigilance on migration and birth control (TANG) are justi-fied. Some mainland Chinese have advocated incorporation of Xiaohengqin (D. João) and Dahengqin (Montanha) Islands into Macau in 1999 which would give the post-1999 Macau Special Economic Region a total area of over 50 square kilome-tres, roughly two and a half times its current size. At the moment, reclamation is going on between Xiaohengqin and Dahengqin at a pace equal to that between Taipa and Coloane creating further land for development, and there are plans for bridges linking Xiaohengqin and Dahengqin to Taipa and Coloane. It is clear that the Macau government has opted to physically grow out of its population-devel-opment dilemma, and there is a possibility that after 1999, the Macau Special Eco-nomic Region will incorporate land beyond the enclave's current borders in order to solve its land shortage problems.
　　Economic development was the organising theme of another session. The keys to Macau's recent rapid economic development have been small-scale industriali-sation and tourism. The growth in industry since the early 1970s was led by tex-tiles and induced by an abundance of cheap labour coupled with laissez-faire eco-nomic policies. From the mid-1980s, diversification away from textiles began. Growth slowed and began to shift to the manufacture of artificial flowers, toys, electronic goods, ceramics and leather goods along with an expansion of the banking sector.
　　The concentration of Macau's manufacturing in textiles, toys, and artificial flowers has left it vulnerable to fluctuations of market demand. By the late 1980s, Macau's textile industry was facing serious protectionism problems as export quo-tas approached 100 per cent to the United States and in certain categories to the European Community, and further growth seems limited, although RAMASAMY and LEUNG suggest that Macau will continue to have a comparative advantage over European and North American manufacturers. Competition in textiles as well as toys, artificial flowers and other low order goods from neighbouring Asian coun-tries with low wages is also increasing, but GONG suggests that Macau can get around this problem by co-operation with China. Although Macau manufacturers have already begun to upgrade their products, diversification and improvement of labour skills have been slow and productivity remains considerably below that of Hon Kong (TSE), although both of these territories can continue to play a special rôle in the regional economy (LIU).
　　The rôle of tourism and gambling in Macau's economy is likely to remain significant for quite some time. Gambling's share alone of the Gross Domestic Prod-uct actually increased during the 1980s to reach 23.5 per cent in 1990 (KWONG-KWAN), and the number of tourists expanded by 10 per cent per annum through-out the 1980s. Hong Kong residents continue to make up over four-fifths of the tourist arrivals, while visitors from Japan, Thailand, Taiwan and mainland China have also been increasing in recent years. The potential for the arrival of large numbers of mainland Chinese tourists is great (Gordon WONG).
　　Ultimately, the small areal extent of Macau limits its ability to function as an independent economy. With rapid growth of manufacturing and tourism during the last 30 years, agriculture has virtually disappeared save for a few scattered vegetable patches. Roughly 90 per cent of agricultural products are supplied by China. Macau is also dependent on Guangdong for 70 per cent of its drinking water and for about 10 per cent of its electricity. Local capital available for invest-ment is also limited. As of 1987 only about one-quarter of Macau's investment was from local sources, and recent reports indicate that there has been a massive influx of capital from China.
　　Although the economy has continued to grow, there has been a steady de-cline in Macau's balance of trade since the late 1980s, with 1991 and 1992 showing negative balances for the first time in recent years. While this was due in part to increases in imports for the new infrastructural projects and by the world reces-sion, it also reflects the lack of technological development and investment in manu-facturing facilities. Macau's industries have been criticized for their dependence on Hong Kong for trade promotion and lack of local training. Such criticisms sug-gest, amongst other things, that Macau's industry would be wise to improve its average scale of operation to a preponderance of medium-sized firms producing more upgraded products. To do this will require development of technology and talent in Macau (CHEN-GUO, ZHOU). In view of this, it was natural that the confer-ence included a session on technological development. Current efforts in techno-logical development include the training of students in engineering at the Univer-sity of Macau (MARTINS), the recent establishment of the International Institute for Software Technology of the United Nations University in Macau (BJ~|ORNER) and work undertaken by the Macau government (AUDRONG).
　　Recent political and legal changes have had a crucial impact upon Macau's social and economic development. While there were partial democratic forms of government in early Macau, these institutions were largely limited to the Portu-guese (Wu Zhiliang). The promulgation of the Macau Organic Statute (Estatuto Orgânico de Macau) in 1976 gave the territory greater political autonomy. In 1982 a new Chinese Constitution created the framework for the return of Macau's sover-eignty by allowing the government to establish 'special administrative regions' whenever necessary and DENG Xiaoping put forward the now famous idea of 'one country, two systems'. Then in 1985, Portugal and China issued a joint communiqué agreeing to negotiate the future of Macau. The resulting Sino-Portuguese Joint Declaration, which went into effect in early 1988, determined that Macau's cur-rent status would be maintained until 20 December 1999, after which date the ter-ritory will become a special administrative region of the People's Republic of China (for more detail see TRIGO). In March 1993 a provisional draft of the Macau Basic Law was promulgated. Macau's present economic order and the status of the Por-tuguese language is supposed to be preserved for 50 years after 1999. However, there are three major political issues Beijing wants to be resolved in Macau prior to 1999: localisation of the upper echelons of the civil service, raising the status of the Chinese language and the reform of the legal system. Although some progress has been made, at the time of writing, there is still a lot of work to be done (i.e., JIANG Enci for commercial law). In order to achieve these goals, it is most urgent to reformulate the priorities of local education.
　　Macau's small size and the Portuguese colonial connection has given Macau a very special education system. As the papers by GINOZA and SIMÕES demonstrate, the special political character of Macau has led to particular subjects being em-phasized in the past. Today the territory remains one of the few places in the world without free compulsory education. Instead of a unified education system, there is a series of primary and secondary schools following models based on Hong Kong, Portugal, North America, and the People's Republic of China as well as the Republic of China on Taiwan. To some degree this is necessary to accommodatethe backgrounds of various students (KOO, PUN, and SIMÕES). Attempts to reform the education system are on-going, and one paper suggests that Macau can learn from educational reforms in China (FENG-YAO) and another looks at social rela-tionships amongst Macau's teachers (CHEUK).
　　In 1988, the government bought the main campus and majority of facilities of Macau's private University of East Asia (Universidade da Ásia Oriental) which has now been renamed the University of Macau (Universidade de Macau). There has been an effort to increase the total enrolment and to reach several goals pertinent to Macau's educational needs (M. N. FERREIRA). Some of the papers address the philosophies and methods of teaching undertaken in the University (CHEUNG, WONG Kwok Sai). In September 1991 the Macau Politechnic Institute (Instituto Politécnico de Macau) was founded to increase training opportunities, and there is also an open university. Exchanges and contact with scholars in the People's Republic have been increasing in recent years. After 1999 there will no doubt be more integration of the education system with both mainland China and Hong Kong.
　　Recent economic development has allowed Macau's society to address wel-fare issues to a greater degree than in the past. The Catholic social services have played an important rôle in the territory's welfare since early times. LEUNG notes that during the late 1960s and the 1970s, pro-communist Chinese associations be-gan to share the welfare burden with the Church. Some areas which were rela-tively neglected prior to the 1980s, such as public housing, care for the elderly (SANTOS FERREIRA) and social work education (HUI) have seen rapid expansion in the past decade. However, simultaneous with the recent welfare service expan-sion, there has been an increase in juvenile delinquency and crime.
　　The people of Macau belong to three major groups: the Macaense, the Chi-nese, and the Portuguese. Most people consider anyone of mixed ancestry who speaks Portuguese as a Macaense. Although the racial and cultural composition of this small ethnic group (less than 10,000 in Macau) has changed over the past four centuries, their rôle as a bridge between the　　 European Portuguese and the Chinese has been indispensable. Recently the Macaense have begun to branch out from their traditional rôle as functionaries moving into business (SANTOS ANTÓNIO et al.).
　　European and African-born Portuguese in Macau are rather small in num-bers, but as colonial rulers they have played a large rôle in the territory's cultural development. Their rôle extended far beyond Macau in the early years of European contact with East Asia (BARRETO). The Portuguese hope that Macau will re-main a focal point for their cultural contact with China after the change of sover-eignty in 1999.
　　Chinese, largely Cantonese, make up the vast majority of the territory's popu-lation. Recent attempts to make Chinese an official language in Macau have fo-cused on Guangzhou Cantonese rather than on the official standard Chinese language (Putonghua or Mandarin), the later being spoken by only 1.1 per cent of the population. No doubt the importance of Mandarin will increase after 1999. In ad-dition the English language has acquired a status as Macau's third language.
　　The growth of commerce, tourism, and technology has also transformed tastes in the popular Chinese culture of Macau as Cantonese opera has been more or lessreplaced by videos. The casino-tourist culture of the last half-century has pro-duced forms of entertainment like the Crazy Paris Show singled out by LOFLAND. At the same time the Macau International Music Festival, which first occurred in 1989, the refurbishing of the Teatro Dom Pedro V in 1993, and the wide range of spectacles staged at the Macau Forum are indicative of the potential for cultural entertainment in Macau. Howev-er, it is the liveliness and community spirit as seen in parks, markets, and other open public areas where the old and young mingle which manifests Macau's cultural roots.
　　The mixture of languages, ethnic groups and culture in such a small place has given Macau a unique flavour. KIRK hypothesizes that the small area and multi-lingual nature of the territory has also led to considerable stress. While stress from multilingualism upon any individual living in the society must differ from person to person, this cultural mix can also be an enriching experience.
　　There is also ethnic stress in Macau's political process. Until the last decade Macau's political culture was dominated by the expatriate Portuguese and the Macaense. Despite the fact that only 8 of 23 deputies in the Assembleia Legislativa, Macau's legislative assembly, are elected by direct universal suffrage with the rest appointed by the Macau government and the Chinese business and civic organi-sations, there is a political culture in Macau (LIU-YEE). However, election turnouts have been poor (Wu Zhiliang), and strong support to pro-Beijing candidates sug-gest that the Macau electorate is resigned to indirect rule up to 1999 and to Beijing's firm control over the territory after 1999.
　　In sum, Macau is currently limited in area for further development. Because of the territory's small size Macau cannot continue to pursue its current lines of population and economic growth. One way to maintain economic prosperity with-out 'developing' to the point of losing the territory's unique character would be specialisation. The Portuguese element in Macau's history is one such area. Cur-rent efforts to secure a special place for Portuguese language and culture ensure that Portuguese influence after 1999 shall not disappear overnight. Whether Macau will play a major rôle in East-West cultural relations hinges in part on the ability of Latin countries to utilise the territory as a base for economic and cultural ex-change. In addition, Macau's Portuguese past can be maintained as an attraction for tourists from the increasingly prosperous countries of East and South East Asia. Therefore, the Macau Special Economic Region and the People's Republic of China would be wise to encourage local developers to preserve as much of the remain-ing Portuguese architecture as possible - particularly as Macau's other major cur-rent tourist revenue generator, the virtual regional monopoly of gambling, is likely to end with efforts to promote gambling in Guangdong, Hainan, and Vi阾nam. In industry, Macau must upgrade and specialize if it is to end its dependency upon Hong Kong. It will also be necessary for Macau to develop skills in value-added high technology as the territory will find it increasingly difficult in the coming decades to compete in labour-intensive, low-cost production with south China.
　　However, the question raised by Bruce TAYLOR in his keynote address, 'what kind of development for what kind of people' is very relevant to consider as we advocate strategies for economic growth. There is a real worry that rapid expan-sion of the territory's land area and population by 2010 could destroy the ecologyand the remnants of the traditional culture and architecture of Macau without providing adequate social welfare and culture facilities to insure an improved quality of life. If so Macau would be better off if it gave up trying to compete with neighbouring Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Zhuhai for economic su-premacy. It seems that specialization in tourism which preserves the territory's heritage, high value-added low polluting industry, and financial services and in-formation along with increased government involvement in education and social welfare provide the most reasonable package for the future.